肉牛生產(chǎn)的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)

EconomicsofBeefProduction

肉牛生產(chǎn)的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)TedDarling泰德達(dá)林AlbertaAgriculture,Food&RuralDevelopmentAirdrie,Alberta,Canada加拿大阿爾伯特省阿爾伯特農(nóng)業(yè)食品和農(nóng)村發(fā)展CIDA–ChinaBeefProject,January2003

23456789101112Today’sAgenda今天天的課程IntroductionandBackground介紹和背背景EconomicsConcepts,TheoriesandTools經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)概概念、理理論和工工具FeedlotEconomics育肥場(chǎng)經(jīng)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)Cow––calfeconomics母?！獱倥＝?jīng)濟(jì)濟(jì)學(xué)Wrapup,discussionandconclusions總結(jié)、討討論和結(jié)結(jié)論13WhatisEconomics?什么是是經(jīng)濟(jì)濟(jì)學(xué)？？Economicsisabout““makingmoney””經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)學(xué)是““制造造錢””Economicsisaboutearningareturnoninvestment經(jīng)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)學(xué)是使投投資有有回報(bào)報(bào)Economicsismanagingscarceresourcesinordertoearnaprofit經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)學(xué)是管理理有限限的資資源使使之獲獲得利利潤(rùn)Economicsisdifferentthanfinance經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)學(xué)不同同于財(cái)財(cái)務(wù)14WhatisEconomics?什什么么是經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)學(xué)？Economicsrequiresmeasurementandmanagement經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)學(xué)需要要測(cè)量量和管管理“Whatgetsmeasuredgetsmanaged.””“什么是是測(cè)量量，什什么是是管理理。””15ProfitCentreModel利潤(rùn)潤(rùn)中心模模式Cow-Calf母母牛-犢牛Feedlot育肥肥場(chǎng)Processing加加工Retail/WholesaleMarket零零售/批發(fā)市市場(chǎng)Inputs投投入Inputs投投入Inputs投投入Inputs投投入OutputOutputOutputMeasure&manage測(cè)量和和管理Measure&manage測(cè)測(cè)量和和管理Measure&manage測(cè)量和和管理Consumer消消費(fèi)者者16EconomicConcepts,Theories&Tools經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)學(xué)概念念、理理論和和工具具Establishingastandardformatforanalysis建立分分析的的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)準(zhǔn)格式式17StandardFormatforCostofProduction生生產(chǎn)產(chǎn)成本的的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)準(zhǔn)格式式Revenue(ValueofProduction)收入（生產(chǎn)產(chǎn)價(jià)值值）-VariableCosts**可變成成本**=ContributionMargin**邊際收益益**-FixedCosts(CapitalCosts)固定成本（基本本投資資）=Profit(ReturntoEquity)利潤(rùn)（歸還還自有有資本本）Back18OtherTerminology其其它術(shù)語語DirectCosts-easilyattributedtoaspecificenterprise直接成成本-容易歸歸因于于具體體的企企業(yè)IndirectCosts-noteasilyallocated間接成成本-不易劃劃歸Overhead-sameasindirectcosts間接費(fèi)用用-間接成成本相相同CashCosts-requireanannualoutlayoffunds現(xiàn)金成成本--需要資資金的的年支支出Non-cashCosts-donotrequireanannualoutlayofcosts.非現(xiàn)金金成本本-不需要要年費(fèi)費(fèi)用支支出19BasicFinancialStatements基本財(cái)財(cái)務(wù)報(bào)報(bào)表BalanceSheet(beginningandending)資金平衡表表（開開始和和結(jié)束束）Snapshotofthebusiness經(jīng)經(jīng)營(yíng)營(yíng)的抽印程程序Assets=liabilities+ownersequity資產(chǎn)=債務(wù)+自有資本本IncomeStatement收收益表Measuresprogressovertheyear測(cè)量量一年的進(jìn)進(jìn)展StatementofChangesinFinancialPosition財(cái)務(wù)狀況變化化表Cashflowstatement–showswherethecashwent現(xiàn)金流通報(bào)表表示現(xiàn)金金的去向向20Financial&ProductionRecords財(cái)財(cái)務(wù)和生產(chǎn)記記錄FinancialRecords財(cái)財(cái)務(wù)記錄Revenues(sales)收入入（出售））Variablecosts可可變成本Fixedcosts固固定成本ProductionRecords生生產(chǎn)記錄Births,deaths,weights出出生、死亡、、重量Necessaryforallbusinesses,bigandsmall所用經(jīng)營(yíng)營(yíng)需要的的，大和和小21EconomicConcepts,Theories&Tools經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)概概念、理理論和工工具Establishingastandardformatforanalysis建立分析析的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)準(zhǔn)格式Coststructure––fixedandvariablecosts,contributionmargin成本結(jié)構(gòu)-固定和可可變成本本、邊際際收益22Fixed&VariableCostsandContributionMargin固定和可可變成本本、邊際際收益Understandingtheseconceptsisthekeytoincreasingprofitability學(xué)會(huì)這些概念念是增加加盈利能能力的關(guān)關(guān)鍵Maximizecontributionmarginbyincreasingrevenueanddecreasingvariablecosts通過增加加收入和和降低可可變成本本獲得最最大的邊邊際收益益Maximizeprofitsbyspreadingfixedcostsovermoreunitsofproduction通過將固固定成本本分散在在更多的的生產(chǎn)單單位中獲獲得最大大的利潤(rùn)潤(rùn)23FixedandVariableCosts固定和可可變成本本24EconomicConcepts,Theories&Tools經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)概概念、理理論和工工具Establishingastandardformatforanalysis建立分析的標(biāo)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)格式式Coststructure––fixedandvariablecosts成本結(jié)構(gòu)構(gòu)-固定和可可變成本本Marginalcostsandrevenues,maximizingprofits邊際際成本和收入、、最大的利潤(rùn)潤(rùn)25MarginalCosts,MarginalRevenue邊際成本、邊邊際收入Marginalrefersto:邊際收入屬于：：Thenextunitofproduction下一個(gè)生產(chǎn)單位位Onemoreunit一個(gè)以上單位位Onemorekgofbeef一公斤以上肉肉牛Onemorekgofcorn一公斤以上玉米米Howmuchrevenuewouldbeearned,andhowmuchwoulditcosttoproduceonemorekgofbeef?收入多少？生產(chǎn)產(chǎn)一公斤以上上牛肉的成本本是多少？26MarginalCosts&Revenues邊際成本和收收入27MarginalCosts&Revenues邊際成本和收收入28MaximizingProfits最大的利潤(rùn)AACDE29MaximizingProfits最大利潤(rùn)ABCDELostProfit利潤(rùn)損失(ifproducingbelowMR=MC)如果生產(chǎn)低于MR=MC30MinimizeUnitCostsofProduction?生產(chǎn)的最小單單位成本？AACDELostProfit(ifproducingatminimumcost)利潤(rùn)損失（如果生產(chǎn)成成本最低）31EconomicConcepts,Theories&Tools經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)概念、、理論和工具具Establishingastandardformatforanalysis建立分析的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)格格式Coststructure––fixedandvariablecosts成本結(jié)構(gòu)-固定和可變成成本Marginalcostsandrevenues,maximizingprofits邊際成本和收入入、最大的利利潤(rùn)PartialBudget部分分預(yù)算32PartialBudget部分分預(yù)算33PartialBudget(exampleonly)部部分預(yù)算（例子））34OtherEconomicConceptsandTools其他經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)概念和和工具RiskManagement風(fēng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理Riskistheprobabilityofunexpectedoutcomes風(fēng)險(xiǎn)是未期待結(jié)果果的盈利能力力Riskcanbemeasuredby:風(fēng)險(xiǎn)險(xiǎn)可測(cè)量：Variationaroundthemean,standarddistributions平均均數(shù)、標(biāo)準(zhǔn)分配配中的差Sensitivityanalysis敏敏感分析mean&standarddeviation平平均和標(biāo)準(zhǔn)離差triangulardistribution三角分配35OtherEconomicConceptsandTools(continued)其它經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)概概念和工具（繼續(xù)）Commoditiesversusdiversifiedproducts商品對(duì)多樣產(chǎn)品Commodityproduction-minimizethe“perunit”costofproduction商品生產(chǎn)-生產(chǎn)的最小的的“單位成本本”Differentiatedproducts-maximizeyourproduct’svalueasperceivedbyyourcustomer.不同產(chǎn)品-你的顧客理解解的最大產(chǎn)品品值Enterpriseanalysis企業(yè)業(yè)分析Calculatecontributionmargin(revenue–variablecosts)foreachenterpriseorprofitcentre為每個(gè)企業(yè)或利利潤(rùn)中心計(jì)算算邊際收益（（收入-可變成本）36BeefFeedlotEconomics

肉牛育肥場(chǎng)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)學(xué)Terminology&Definitions術(shù)術(shù)語和定義Standardformatforanalysis,plusotherterms:分析的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)格格式，加其它它術(shù)語：Costperkgofgain–costof1kgofweightgain.Includesallcosts,fixedandvariable每公斤增重成本本-增重1公斤。包括所所有費(fèi)用、固固定和可變Yardage–totalcostsminusfeedcosts畜欄使用費(fèi)—總費(fèi)用減去飼飼料費(fèi)Breakeven–saleorpurchasepricewhereprofitiszero收支平衡-出售和購(gòu)買價(jià)價(jià)格利潤(rùn)是零零Turnover–howmanycompleteturnsthefeedlotachieveseachyear.Alsototalcattlesales/averageinventoryvalue周轉(zhuǎn)-每年育肥場(chǎng)完完全的運(yùn)轉(zhuǎn)是是多少。全部部出售的牛/平均存貨價(jià)值值。38MeasuringProfitability

測(cè)量量盈利能力Revenue(ValueofProduction)收入（生產(chǎn)價(jià)值））-VariableCosts**可變成本**=ContributionMargin**邊際收益**-FixedCosts(CapitalCosts)固定成本（基本投資））=Profit(ReturntoEquity)利潤(rùn)(歸還自有資本本）39EconomicsofNutrition營(yíng)養(yǎng)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)Low-gainRation低增重日料(Samecattleat454kg)40EconomicsofNutrition營(yíng)養(yǎng)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)High-gainRation高增重日料(Samecattleat454kg)41EconomicsofNutrition營(yíng)養(yǎng)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)42EconomicsofNutrition營(yíng)養(yǎng)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)DaysonFeed飼養(yǎng)天數(shù)Lowgainration低增重日料Highgainration高增重日料450kgfinalwt.最后重量450公斤450kgfinalwt.最后重量459公斤￥4.90/day4.9元/天504days504天249days天￥6.81/day6.81元/天TotalFeedCost=￥4.90x504=￥2,470總飼料費(fèi)用TotalFeedCost=￥6.81x249=￥1,698總飼料費(fèi)用=6.81元X249=1，698元43EconomicsofNutrition–Discussion&Conclusions

營(yíng)養(yǎng)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)-討論和結(jié)論論Whyisthe“highgain”rationmoreprofitablethanthe“l(fā)owgainration?””為什么“高高增重”日日料比“低低增重日料料“更能能盈利Dailyfeedcostofkeepingtheanimalalive(maintenance)withnogain不增重只讓牛?；钪ňS維持）的每每天飼料費(fèi)費(fèi)用Yardagecosts(allcostsexceptfeed)mustbepaideachday每天必須支付畜畜欄使用費(fèi)費(fèi)（除了飼飼料的所有有費(fèi)用）Afeedlotislikeafactory––theproductionlineshouldmoveasfastaspossibletospreadfixedcostovermanyunitsofproduction.育肥場(chǎng)象工廠—生產(chǎn)線應(yīng)盡盡快將固定定成本分散散到更多的的生產(chǎn)單位位中44MaximizingProfits最大利潤(rùn)ABCDELostProfit利潤(rùn)潤(rùn)損失(ifproducingbelowMR=MC)如果購(gòu)買低于45BreakevenCalculator(ExcelSpreadsheet)收支平衡計(jì)計(jì)算表（EXCEL表）Forecasts:預(yù)測(cè)daysonfeed吃吃飼料的天數(shù)數(shù)profit利潤(rùn)-or–或或breakeven收支平衡purchaseorsalepricewhereprofit=zero購(gòu)買或出售價(jià)格格利潤(rùn)=零46Page#147Page#248Cow-CalfEconomics

母牛牛-犢牛經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)學(xué)StandardFormatforAnalysis標(biāo)準(zhǔn)分析格格式Revenue(ValueofProduction)收入（生產(chǎn)價(jià)值值）-VariableCosts**可變成本**=ContributionMargin**邊際收益**-FixedCosts(CapitalCosts)固定成本（基本投資資）=Profit(ReturntoEquity)利潤(rùn)（歸還自有資資本）5051CostperUnitofProductionUnitCostofProduction(UCOP)每生生產(chǎn)產(chǎn)單單位位成UCOP=TotalcostofproductionTotalnumberofunitsproducedUCOP=總生生產(chǎn)產(chǎn)成成本本生產(chǎn)產(chǎn)的的單單位位總總數(shù)數(shù)225kgofcalfproducedatatotalcostof￥1,000.TheUCOPis1,000/225=￥4.44perkgcalfproduced.Ifpriceis￥￥4.44ormore,profitisearned.生產(chǎn)產(chǎn)225公斤斤犢犢牛牛的的總總成成本本是是1000元。。UCOP是1000/225=4.44元/公斤斤。。如如果果價(jià)價(jià)格格是是4.44元或或更更多多，，能能獲獲得得利利潤(rùn)潤(rùn)。。Examples:例例如如：Reducecostofbuildings=totalcost=UCOP降低房房屋屋建建設(shè)設(shè)成成本本=總成成本本=UCOPIncreasedcalving%=production=UCOP增加加產(chǎn)犢犢%=生產(chǎn)產(chǎn)=UCOP52StrategiestoMaximizeProfitintheCow-CalfIndustry母牛-犢牛業(yè)最大利利潤(rùn)戰(zhàn)略Twokeystrategies兩個(gè)個(gè)重要戰(zhàn)略Becomealow-costproducer成為低成本生產(chǎn)者者Produceadiversified(niche)product生產(chǎn)多樣（小小生境）產(chǎn)品品Lowcostproducer低成本生產(chǎn)者者Lowerfixedcosts,orbecomemoreefficientbyspreadingfixedcostsovermoreunitsofproduction較低的固定成本本，或通過將將固定成本分分散給更多的的生產(chǎn)單位變變的更有效53LowCostHerdsMakeMoney!低成本畜群掙掙錢！Topthird-bottomthirdanalysis(basedontotalproductioncostperlbofcalfproduced)分析前3名和后3名（以犢牛每生生產(chǎn)1磅的總生產(chǎn)成成本為基礎(chǔ)））$300perheadbetweenlow-costandhigh-costherds-(1999Albertaaveragedata)在低成本和高成成本畜群之間間每頭為300加元（1999年阿爾伯特平平均數(shù)據(jù)）$100perheaddifferencebetweenlow-costandhigh-costherds(20yeardatafromtheUS.)低成本和高成成本畜群之間間的不同為每每頭100加元（美國(guó)2000年數(shù)據(jù)）Thecattlecyclehadlittleeffectontheamountofthedifference牛周期對(duì)數(shù)量不不同無影響。。54ReturntoEquity1995-1999AlbertaAverage歸歸還自有資本阿爾爾伯特1995-1999年平均55IsitGrowth-Weaningweight?生長(zhǎng)-斷奶重？WeanWeight斷奶重ActualValue實(shí)際值TotalCostperLbWeaned每斷奶磅總成本GrossMargin/LbWeaned毛收益/斷奶磅ReturntoEquity/Cow歸還自有資本/母牛Profit/LbWeaned利潤(rùn)/斷奶磅前1/3名Top1/36281.02.44144.71.24后1/3名Bottom1/34881.21.3763.24.14StudybyJeffMillang,AlbertaAgriculture–1999Data$.10/lbdifference不同$.10/磅56IsitFeedingcost–WinterFeed&Bedding?飼飼養(yǎng)成本-冬季飼料和墊墊草？WinterFeed&Bedding冬季飼料和墊草ActualValue實(shí)際值TotalCostperLbWeaned每斷奶磅總成本GrossMargin/LbWeaned毛收益/斷奶磅ReturntoEquity/Cow歸還自有資本/母牛ReturntoEquity/LbWeaned歸還自有資本/斷奶磅前1/3名Top1/3130.851.00.52159.43.31后1/3名Bottom1/3312.491.24.3996.59.17StudybyJeffMillang,AlbertaAgriculture–1999Data阿爾爾伯特農(nóng)業(yè)杰夫米朗朗研究—1999年數(shù)據(jù)$.14/lbdifference不同$.14/磅57IsitFixedCost?固定成本？Fixedcost固定成本ActualValue實(shí)際值TotalCostperLbWeaned每斷奶磅總成本GrossMargin/LbWeaned毛收益/斷奶磅ReturntoEquity/Cow歸還自有資本/母牛ReturntoEquity/LbWeaned歸還自有資本/斷奶磅前1/3名Top1/337.581.05.49169.76.32后1/3名Bottom1/3132.311.30.25-18.69-.04StudybyJeffMillang,AlbertaAgriculture–1999Data阿爾伯特農(nóng)業(yè)杰夫米朗朗研究—1999年數(shù)據(jù)$.36/lbdifference58AnalyzingCow-CalfOperations&FindingUnitCostofProduction分析母牛-犢牛經(jīng)營(yíng)和判判定單位生產(chǎn)產(chǎn)成本“Whatgetsmeasuredgetsmanaged”Financialandproductionrecords“測(cè)量和管理什什么”財(cái)務(wù)和生產(chǎn)記記錄Cow-calfcostofproductionanalysis.xlsExcelspreadsheet(containsexampledataonly)母牛-犢牛生產(chǎn)成本本分析EXCEL表（包括例題題數(shù)據(jù)）59FinancialRecords財(cái)務(wù)記錄Paperspreadsheet………..60ProductionRecords生產(chǎn)記錄Paperspreadsheet………..61626364FormatandBenchmarks格式和水準(zhǔn)標(biāo)點(diǎn)Revenue收入-VariableCosts可變成本=ContributionMargin*=邊際收益-FixedCosts固定成本=Profit利潤(rùn)(GrossMargin)（毛收益）65Contracts&Contracting

合同同和簽約約66KeyIssuesinContracting簽約的的主要要問題題Thepurpose目目的Guaranteedmarketforseller保證賣者市市場(chǎng)Guaranteedsupplyforbuyer保證供應(yīng)買買者Stableprice價(jià)價(jià)格穩(wěn)定Accesstofinancingandtechnologyforproducer為生產(chǎn)者者評(píng)估估財(cái)務(wù)務(wù)和技技術(shù)67KeyIssuesinContracting簽約的的主要要問題題Theeconomicimplications經(jīng)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)含義義Producersmustknowcostofproduction生產(chǎn)者者必須知知道生生產(chǎn)成成本Producersmustgetafairreturnfortheirproducts生產(chǎn)者者必須從從產(chǎn)品品中得得到回回報(bào)Producersmustunderstandrestrictiononinputsandproductionpractices生產(chǎn)者必須須知道道投入入和生生產(chǎn)實(shí)實(shí)際的的限制制68KeyIssuesinContracting簽約的的主要要問題題Financialconsiderations財(cái)財(cái)務(wù)考慮慮Producermustunderstanddetailsoffinancingprovided生產(chǎn)者者必須知知道財(cái)財(cái)務(wù)的的詳細(xì)細(xì)情況況Loans貸款Feed,vet,breedingfees飼料、獸醫(yī)醫(yī)、配配種費(fèi)費(fèi)Whathappensifthingsgowrong?如果出錯(cuò)發(fā)發(fā)生了了什么么？69KeyIssuesinContracting簽約的的主要要問題題Thebenefitsandrisks收收益和風(fēng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)Thecontractmustbe““win––win.””(advantageforbothparties)合同必須““贏—贏”（（雙方方都有有好處處）Riskofbeingtiedtoonemarket.(caninputspricesgoupwithoutthesalepricebeingadjusted?)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)束縛一一個(gè)市市場(chǎng)。。（投投入價(jià)價(jià)格上上升銷銷售價(jià)價(jià)格能能調(diào)整整嗎？？）Riskoflossofindependence獨(dú)立風(fēng)險(xiǎn)損損失70KeyIssuesinContracting簽約的的主要要問題題Theimpactonotherbusinessrelationships對(duì)對(duì)其他經(jīng)經(jīng)營(yíng)關(guān)關(guān)系的的影響響Relationshipswithothercustomersandsuppliersmaybeaffected其他消費(fèi)者者和供供應(yīng)者者的關(guān)關(guān)系可可能受受影響響71Discussion&Conclusions討論和結(jié)論論72TheEnd結(jié)束束TedDarling泰德達(dá)林RiskManagementSpecialist風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理專家AlbertaAgriculture,Food&RuralDevelopmentAlberta,Canada加拿大阿爾伯特省省阿爾伯特特農(nóng)業(yè)食品品和農(nóng)村發(fā)發(fā)展局ValueofProduction生產(chǎn)價(jià)值Totalrevenue總收入Totalvalueofproductproduced生產(chǎn)的產(chǎn)品總值值A(chǔ)djustedfor:調(diào)整：livestocksalesandpurchases家畜出售和和購(gòu)買transfersinandout中轉(zhuǎn)進(jìn)和出出inventorychanges存貨變動(dòng)amountsreceivable應(yīng)收的數(shù)額額(back)（后面）74VariableCosts可變成本Coststhatvarymoreorlessdirectlywithproduction成本的變化化多或少直直接于生產(chǎn)產(chǎn)有關(guān)feed,pasture,vetandmedicine飼料、草場(chǎng)場(chǎng)、獸醫(yī)和和藥fuel,fertilizer,seed燃料、化肥肥和種子Includeadjustmentsfor:包括調(diào)整：：supplyinventories供應(yīng)存貨amountspayable可支付數(shù)額額unpaidlabour不支付的勞勞力(back)（后面）75FixedCosts固定成本Alsocalledcapitalcosts.Thesecostsdonotvarywithproduction.也稱資本成成本。這些些費(fèi)用不隨隨生產(chǎn)變化化。Usuallyassociatedwithownership通常與所有權(quán)有有關(guān)landtaxes,licenses,insurance,overhead地租、許可證證、保險(xiǎn)、、間接費(fèi)用用machineryandbuildingdepreciation機(jī)械和房屋折舊舊interestoncapitalassets固定資產(chǎn)的的利息(back)（后面）76CashCosts現(xiàn)金成本Expensesthathavetobepurchasedandpaidfor,usuallywithinthefiscalperiod.通常是在結(jié)帳期期間必須購(gòu)購(gòu)買和支付付的費(fèi)用Purchasedfeed,grain,rentedpasture購(gòu)買飼料