需求技術(shù)變化與國際貿(mào)易(講義)完整版

Chapter5Demand、TechnologicalChangeandInternationalTrade

需求、技術(shù)變化與國際貿(mào)易

ReviewofChapter2TheBASIS

fortradeaccordingtoprevioustradetheories:

RelativepricedifferentialReviewofChapter3TheBASIS

fortradeaccordingtoprevioustradetheories:

ResourceendowmentsStructure古典貿(mào)易理論要素稟賦理論供給方面對國際貿(mào)易的決定因素

生產(chǎn)成本

Factorstobeconsideredonsupplyside:ResourceendowmentsTechnology

Factorstobeconsideredondemandside:TastesandpreferencesIncomelevel

Others:TransportationcostSeasonExchangerate……Marketpriceisco-determinedbysupplyanddemandNewtrendsafterWWⅡIntra-industrytradeInter-industrytrade（行業(yè)間貿(mào)易）meanstheexchangebetweennationsofproductsofdifferentindustries.Intra-industry

trade（行業(yè)內(nèi)貿(mào)易）definestwo-waytradeinasimilarcommodity Inter-industryCornEquipment

AutomobileAutomobileIntra-industryIntra-industryEquipment

Equipment

Labour-abundantnations

exportlabour-intensivegoodsH-OTheoremCapital-abundantnationsexportcapital-intensivegoodsInter-industrytradeNewtrendsafterWWⅡ

TradeamongdevelopedcountriesDevelopedcountriesareabundantincapitalDevelopingcountriesareabundantinlaborNewtrendsafterWWⅡIndustryleadingpositionTVset

第一臺電視機面世于1924年，由英國的電子工程師約翰·貝爾德發(fā)明。1928年，美國的RCA電視臺率先播出第一套電視片《FelixTheCat》。根據(jù)海關(guān)總署公布的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，2014年8月，全國電視總出口數(shù)量為705萬臺，出口金額為802067萬元人民幣。從1月到8月之間，累計出口電視數(shù)量為4833萬臺，總金額為5305801萬元。累計相比去年同期，出口數(shù)量增長了42.1萬臺，增長率達到了31.3%。

Structure重疊需求貿(mào)易理論產(chǎn)品生命周期理論需求方面對國際貿(mào)易的決定因素

KeyConceptsConsumerbehaviorOverlappingdemandsTechnicalinnovationProductlifecycle

消費者行為重疊需求技術(shù)創(chuàng)新產(chǎn)品生命周期§1TheoryofOverlappingDemand重疊需求理論Marketpriceisco-determinedbySupplyandDemand

TastesandpreferencesIncomelevelFactors（demand）

TechnicalprogressTechnicalinnovationDynamicanalysisTheoryofOverlappingDemands

重疊需求理論Linder林德

Whichtypesofnationswillmostlikelytradewitheachother？TheoryofOverlappingDemandsLinder林德

TradeamongdevelopedcountriesIntra-industrytradeHypothesesofConsumerBehavior

消費者行為的假設Tastesofconsumersareconditionedstronglybytheirincomelevels.

Nationswithhighpercapitaincomeswilldemandhigh-qualitymanufacturedgoodsNationswithlowpercapitaincomeswilldemandlow-qualitygoods.HypothesesofConsumerBehaviorTastesofconsumersareconditionedstronglybytheirincomelevels.

Acountry’spercapitaincomewillyieldaparticularpatternoftastes.TheoryofOverlappingDemandsFirmswithinacountryaremotivatedtomanufacturegoodsforwhichthereisalargedomesticmarket.

暢銷品TheoryofOverlappingDemandsThedomesticmarketdeterminesthesetofgoodsthatthesefirmswillhavetosellwhentheybegintoexport.TheoryofOverlappingDemandsTheforeignmarketswithgreaterexportpotentialwillbefoundinnationswithconsumerstastessimilartothoseofdomesticconsumers.

TheoryofOverlappingDemandsNationswithsimilarpercapitaincomeswillhaveoverlappingdemandstructuresandwilllikelytoconsumesimilartypesofmanufacturedgoods.

重疊需求與國際貿(mào)易YqPAByAyBDCFHGE

重疊需求與國際貿(mào)易YqPAByAyBDCFHGE

重疊需求與國際貿(mào)易YqPAByAyBDCFHGEApplicabilityoftheTheoryManufacturedgoodstrade

amongdevelopednationsInter-industrytrade（行業(yè)間貿(mào)易）meanstheexchangebetweennationsofproductsofdifferentindustries.Intra-industry

trade（行業(yè)內(nèi)貿(mào)易）definestwo-waytradeinasimilarcommodity Linderdoesn’truleoutalltradeinmanufacturedgoodsbetweenwealthyandpoornations.Incomedisparity

Unequalincomedistribution§2ProductLifeCycleTheory產(chǎn)品生命周期理論TechnicalinnovationRaymondVernon雷蒙德·弗農(nóng)AmericanEconomist從1959年開始，在哈佛大學任教《產(chǎn)品周期中的國際貿(mào)易》

ExporttradeTransferoftechnologyFDIR&DRawmaterialCapitalLaborPromotionTotalcostInitiallythehomecountryisanexporterThenitlosesitscompetitiveadvantageEventuallymaybecomeanimporterProductLifeCycleTheory產(chǎn)品生命周期理論Industryleadingposition

Theironandsteelindustry

IndustrialRevolutionTheUnitedKingdomTheUnitedStatesofAmericaGermanyJapanRussiaSouthKoreaChinaSemiconductorindustryBellTelephoneCompanyIn1947TransistorIn1960sIntegratedcircuitIn1970s70

%

ofthe

world

marketIn1990sNetimporterJapanTechnical

diffusioneffectt0時間凈出口凈進口創(chuàng)新國其他發(fā)達國家發(fā)展中國家t1t2t3t4ManufacturedgoodisintroducedtohomemarketDomesticindustryshowsexportstrengthForeignproductionbeginsDomesticindustrylosescompetitiveadvantageImportcompetitionbeginsDynamiccomparativeadvantageWorld'sworkshop世界工廠ProductLifeCycleTheoryInthe18thcenturyWorld'sworkshop

IndustrialRevolutionTheUnitedKingdomInthelate19thCenturyWorld'sworkshop

TheUnitedStateofAmericaInthe1960sWorld'sworkshop

JapanInthelate1950s---1970sPeriodofrapideconomicgrowthTheheavychemicalindustryInthe1970soilcrisisWorld'sworkshop

ElectronicindustryAutomobileindustryPrecisionmachineFeature：light、thin、short、smallWorld'sworkshop

1980年，日本汽車年產(chǎn)量超過美國居世界第一

1983年，日本機械工業(yè)出口超過美國居世界第一日本制造的船舶也達到世界總產(chǎn)量一半以上。World'sworkshop

Inthe1990sBubbleeconomy

泡沫經(jīng)濟

Industrialhollow

產(chǎn)業(yè)空心化World'sworkshop

1995年，中國占全球制造業(yè)產(chǎn)值的比重是5％2007年，上升到大約14％日本14%美國25%

德國7%英國3%World'sworkshop

2007年，有172類產(chǎn)品產(chǎn)量居世界第一位。世界70%的DVD和玩具世界50%的電話和鞋超過1/3的彩電和箱包高技術(shù)產(chǎn)品出口額占國際市場的份額已近20%。

World'sworkshop

科技進步在經(jīng)濟增長中的貢獻率日本超過70％，中國只有39％研發(fā)投入（R&D）占GDP的比例日本為3.5％，中國僅為1.3％對外技術(shù)依存度日本低于30％，中國超過了50％World'sworkshop

Smallandmediumenterprises

日本政府設立了三個中小企業(yè)金融機構(gòu)，專門向難以通過發(fā)行股票和公司債券籌資的中小企業(yè)提供低息的設備投資貸款。World'sworkshop

Smallandmediumenterprises

根據(jù)政府實施的《設備租賃制度》，作為公共機構(gòu)的“設備租賃機構(gòu)”利用政府出資和中小企業(yè)金融機構(gòu)貸款，將設備租賃給中小企業(yè)使用。World'sworkshop

Smallandmediumenterprises

全國47個地方政府幾乎均設立了公立試驗研究機構(gòu)，為員工少于300人的工廠提供調(diào)查服務、技術(shù)支持、測試和指導。World'sworkshop

19世紀初，生產(chǎn)1噸粗鋼需用30噸煤炭20世紀，降至3噸21世紀，各國生產(chǎn)1噸粗鋼需用的煤炭量中國為1.5噸美國為1噸日本為0.6噸World'sworkshop

1噸粗鋼生產(chǎn)成品鋼材的重量（鋼材的成品率）日本為0.98

美國為0.70

中國為0.60World'sworkshop

IntroductionAbsorptionImprovementInnovationWorld'sworkshop

CDplayer20世紀世界重大發(fā)明和新產(chǎn)品研制日本做出的重大發(fā)明為零在32項重大新技術(shù)產(chǎn)品的商品化方面美、歐分別只有六項和兩項日本有24項World'sworkshop

引進、吸收、改良、創(chuàng)新一號機引進二號機國產(chǎn)三號機出口World'sworkshop

引進、吸收、改良、創(chuàng)新一號機引進二號機引進三號機還引進World'sworkshop

全世界3/4的煙花爆竹在中國生產(chǎn)

PollutionSafety政府研發(fā)預算在GDP中所占比重韓國（1.14%）、冰島（1.12%）芬蘭（1.03%）政府研發(fā)預算規(guī)模美國（1335億美元）、日本（368億美元）、德國（333億美元）、法國（199億美元）、英國（141億美元）、韓國（137億美元）從2004年至2011年，韓國的政府研發(fā)預算中經(jīng)濟發(fā)展領(lǐng)域預算占比最高，保持在50%左右。日本、德國等國家的經(jīng)濟領(lǐng)域預算占比為20%左右。韓國科學技術(shù)企劃評價院（2014年7月27日）國家人才發(fā)展主要指標IntroductionStage

TheIntroductionStageofthetradecyclebeginswhen

aninnovatorestablishesatechnologicalbreakthrough

intheproductionofmanufacturedgoods.Atthestart,therelativelysmalllocalMarketfortheproductandtechnologicaluncertaintiesimplythatmassproductionisnotfeasible.Themanufacturerwilllikelyoperateclosetothelocalmarkettogainquickfeedbackonthequalityandoverallappealoftheproduct.StageofGrowthandExpansionDuringthetradecycle’snextstage,thedomesticmanufacturerbeginstoexportitsproducttoforeignmarketshavingsimilartastesandincomelevels.Thelocalmanufacturedfindsthat,duringthisStageofGrowthandExpansion,itsmarketbecomeslargeenoughtosupportmass-productionoperationsandthesortingoutofinefficientproductiontechniques.Thehome-countrymanufactureristhereforeabletosupplyincreasingamountstotheworldmarkets.

MatureStage

Astimepasses,themanufacturersrealizedthat

itmustlocateproductionoperationsclosertotheforeignmarketstoprotectitsexportprofits.

ThedomesticindustryentersitsMatureStageasinnovatingbusinessesestablishbranchesabroad.Areasonforlocatingproductionoperationsabroadisthatthecostadvantageinitiallyenjoyedbyaninnovatorisnotlikelytolastindefinitely.

Overtime,theinnovatingnationmayfinditstechnologybecomingmorecommonplaceandtransportationcostsandtariffsplayinganincreasinglyimportantroleininfluencingsellingcosts.Theinnovatormayalsofindthattheforeignmarketislargeenoughtopermitmass-productionoperations.

DecliningPhase

Althoughaninnovatingnation’smonopolypositionmaybeprolongedbylegalpatents,itwilllikelybreakdownovertime,becauseinthelongrunknowledgetendstobeafreegoods.

Thebenefitsaninnovationnationachievesfromitstechnologicalgapareshort-lived,asimportcompetitionfromforeignproducersbegins.Oncetheinnovativetechnologybecomesfairlycommonplace,foreignproduce