需求技術(shù)變化與國(guó)際貿(mào)易(講義)教學(xué)版

Chapter5Demand、TechnologicalChangeandInternationalTrade

需求、技術(shù)變化與國(guó)際貿(mào)易

Structure古典貿(mào)易理論要素稟賦理論供給方面對(duì)國(guó)際貿(mào)易的決定因素

生產(chǎn)成本NewtrendsafterWWⅡIntra-industrytradeInter-industrytrade（行業(yè)間貿(mào)易）meanstheexchangebetweennationsofproductsofdifferentindustries.Intra-industry

trade（行業(yè)內(nèi)貿(mào)易）definestwo-waytradeinasimilarcommodity Inter-industryCornEquipment

AutomobileTextileInter-industryAutomobileAutomobileIntra-industryIntra-industryEquipment

Equipment

Labour-abundant

nations

exportlabour-intensivegoodsH-OTheoremCapital-abundant

nationsexportcapital-intensivegoodsInter-industrytradeNewtrendsafterWWⅡ

TradeamongdevelopedcountriesDevelopedcountriesareabundantincapitalDevelopingcountriesareabundantinlaborNewtrendsafterWWⅡIndustryleadingpositionTVsetStructure重疊需求貿(mào)易理論產(chǎn)品生命周期理論需求方面對(duì)國(guó)際貿(mào)易的決定因素

KeyConceptsConsumerbehaviorOverlappingdemandsTechnicalinnovationProductlifecycle

消費(fèi)者行為重疊需求技術(shù)創(chuàng)新產(chǎn)品生命周期§1TheoryofOverlappingDemand重疊需求理論Marketpriceisco-determinedbySupplyandDemand

TastesandpreferencesIncomelevelFactors（demand）

TechnicalprogressTechnicalinnovationCommoditystructureDynamicanalysisTheoryofOverlappingDemandsLinder（Sweden）

Whichtypesofnationswillmostlikelytradewitheachother？TheoryofOverlappingDemandsLinder（Sweden）

TradeamongdevelopedcountriesIntra-industrytradeHypothesesofConsumerBehaviorTastesofconsumersareconditionedstronglybytheirincomelevels.

Nationswithhighpercapitaincomeswilldemandhigh-qualitymanufacturedgoodsNationswithlowpercapitaincomeswilldemandlow-qualitygoods.HypothesesofConsumerBehaviorTastesofconsumersareconditionedstronglybytheirincomelevels.

Acountry’spercapitaincomewillyieldaparticularpatternoftastes.TheoryofOverlappingDemandsFirmswithinacountryaremotivatedtomanufacturegoodsforwhichthereisalargedomesticmarket.

暢銷品TheoryofOverlappingDemandsThedomesticmarketdeterminesthesetofgoodsthatthesefirmswillhavetosellwhentheybegintoexport.TheoryofOverlappingDemandsTheforeignmarketswithgreaterexportpotentialwillbefoundinnationswithconsumerstastessimilartothoseofdomesticconsumers.

TheoryofOverlappingDemandsNationswithsimilarpercapitaincomeswillhaveoverlappingdemandstructuresandwilllikelytoconsumesimilartypesofmanufacturedgoods.

重疊需求與國(guó)際貿(mào)易YqPAByAyBDCFHGE

重疊需求與國(guó)際貿(mào)易YqPAByAyBDCFHGELinderdoesn’truleoutalltradeinmanufacturedgoodsbetweenwealthyandpoornations.Incomedisparity

UnequalincomedistributionApplicabilityoftheTheoryManufacturedgoodstrade

amongdevelopednationsInter-industrytrade（行業(yè)間貿(mào)易）meanstheexchangebetweennationsofproductsofdifferentindustries.Intra-industry

trade（行業(yè)內(nèi)貿(mào)易）definestwo-waytradeinasimilarcommodity §2ProductLifeCycleTheory產(chǎn)品生命周期理論TechnicalinnovationRaymondVernon雷蒙德·弗農(nóng)AmericanEconomist從1959年開(kāi)始，在哈佛大學(xué)任教《產(chǎn)品周期中的國(guó)際貿(mào)易》

ExporttradeTransferoftechnologyFDIR&DRawmaterialCapitalLaborPromotionTotalcostInitiallythehomecountryisanexporterThenitlosesitscompetitiveadvantageEventuallymaybecomeanimporterProductLifeCycleTheoryIndustryleadingposition

Theironandsteelindustry

IndustrialRevolutionTheUnitedKingdomTheUnitedStatesofAmericaGermanyJapanRussiaSouthKoreaChinaSemiconductorindustryBellTelephoneCompanyIn1947TransistorIn1960sIntegratedcircuitIn1970s70

%

ofthe

world

marketIn1990sNetimporterJapanTechnical

diffusioneffectt0時(shí)間凈出口凈進(jìn)口創(chuàng)新國(guó)其他發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家發(fā)展中國(guó)家t1t2t3t4ManufacturedgoodisintroducedtohomemarketDomesticindustryshowsexportstrengthForeignproductionbeginsDomesticindustrylosescompetitiveadvantageImportcompetitionbeginsDynamiccomparativeadvantageWorld'sworkshop世界工廠ProductLifeCycleTheoryInthe18thcenturyWorld'sworkshop

IndustrialRevolutionTheUnitedKingdomInthelate19thCenturyWorld'sworkshop

TheUnitedStateofAmericaInthe1960sWorld'sworkshop

JapanInthelate1950s---1970sPeriodofrapideconomicgrowthTheheavychemicalindustryInthe1970soilcrisisWorld'sworkshop

ElectronicindustryAutomobileindustryPrecisionmachineFeature：light、thin、short、smallWorld'sworkshop

1980年，日本汽車年產(chǎn)量超過(guò)美國(guó)居世界第一

1983年，日本機(jī)械工業(yè)出口超過(guò)美國(guó)居世界第一日本制造的船舶也達(dá)到世界總產(chǎn)量一半以上。World'sworkshop

Inthe1990sBubbleeconomy

泡沫經(jīng)濟(jì)

Industrialhollow

產(chǎn)業(yè)空心化World'sworkshop

1995年，中國(guó)占全球制造業(yè)產(chǎn)值的比重是5％2007年，上升到大約14％日本14%美國(guó)25%

德國(guó)7%英國(guó)3%World'sworkshop

2007年，有172類產(chǎn)品產(chǎn)量居世界第一位。世界70%的DVD和玩具世界50%的電話和鞋超過(guò)1/3的彩電和箱包高技術(shù)產(chǎn)品出口額占國(guó)際市場(chǎng)的份額已近20%。

World'sworkshop

科技進(jìn)步在經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)中的貢獻(xiàn)率日本超過(guò)70％，中國(guó)只有39％研發(fā)投入（R&D）占GDP的比例日本為3.5％，中國(guó)僅為1.3％對(duì)外技術(shù)依存度日本低于30％，中國(guó)超過(guò)了50％World'sworkshop

Smallandmediumenterprises

日本政府設(shè)立了三個(gè)中小企業(yè)金融機(jī)構(gòu)，專門向難以通過(guò)發(fā)行股票和公司債券籌資的中小企業(yè)提供低息的設(shè)備投資貸款。World'sworkshop

Smallandmediumenterprises

根據(jù)政府實(shí)施的《設(shè)備租賃制度》，作為公共機(jī)構(gòu)的“設(shè)備租賃機(jī)構(gòu)”利用政府出資和中小企業(yè)金融機(jī)構(gòu)貸款，將設(shè)備租賃給中小企業(yè)使用。World'sworkshop

Smallandmediumenterprises

全國(guó)47個(gè)地方政府幾乎均設(shè)立了公立試驗(yàn)研究機(jī)構(gòu)，為員工少于300人的工廠提供調(diào)查服務(wù)、技術(shù)支持、測(cè)試和指導(dǎo)。World'sworkshop

19世紀(jì)初，生產(chǎn)1噸粗鋼需用30噸煤炭20世紀(jì)，降至3噸21世紀(jì)，各國(guó)生產(chǎn)1噸粗鋼需用的煤炭量中國(guó)為1.5噸美國(guó)為1噸日本為0.6噸World'sworkshop

1噸粗鋼生產(chǎn)成品鋼材的重量（鋼材的成品率）日本為0.98

美國(guó)為0.70

中國(guó)為0.60World'sworkshop

IntroductionAbsorptionImprovementInnovationWorld'sworkshop

CDplayer20世紀(jì)世界重大發(fā)明和新產(chǎn)品研制日本做出的重大發(fā)明為零在32項(xiàng)重大新技術(shù)產(chǎn)品的商品化方面美、歐分別只有六項(xiàng)和兩項(xiàng)日本有24項(xiàng)World'sworkshop

引進(jìn)、吸收、改良、創(chuàng)新一號(hào)機(jī)引進(jìn)二號(hào)機(jī)國(guó)產(chǎn)三號(hào)機(jī)出口World'sworkshop

引進(jìn)、吸收、改良、創(chuàng)新一號(hào)機(jī)引進(jìn)二號(hào)機(jī)引進(jìn)三號(hào)機(jī)還引進(jìn)World'sworkshop

全世界3/4的煙花爆竹在中國(guó)生產(chǎn)

PollutionSafetyIntroductionStage

TheIntroductionStageofthetradecyclebeginswhen

aninnovatorestablishesatechnologicalbreakthrough

intheproductionofmanufacturedgoods.Atthestart,therelativelysmalllocalMarketfortheproductandtechnologicaluncertaintiesimplythatmassproductionisnotfeasible.Themanufacturerwilllikelyoperateclosetothelocalmarkettogainquickfeedbackonthequalityandoverallappealoftheproduct.StageofGrowthandExpansionDuringthetradecycle’snextstage,thedomesticmanufacturerbeginstoexportitsproducttoforeignmarketshavingsimilartastesandincomelevels.Thelocalmanufacturedfindsthat,duringthisStageofGrowthandExpansion,itsmarketbecomeslargeenoughtosupportmass-productionoperationsandthesortingoutofinefficientproductiontechniques.Thehome-countrymanufactureristhereforeabletosupplyincreasingamountstotheworldmarkets.

MatureStage

Astimepasses,themanufacturersrealizedthat

itmustlocateproductionoperationsclosertotheforeignmarketstoprotectitsexportprofits.

ThedomesticindustryentersitsMatureStageasinnovatingbusinessesestablishbranchesabroad.Areasonforlocatingproductionoperationsabroadisthatthecostadvantageinitiallyenjoyedbyaninnovatorisnotlikelytolastindefinitely.

Overtime,theinnovatingnationmayfinditstechnologybecomingmorecommonplaceandtransportationcostsandtariffsplayinganincreasinglyimportantroleininfluencingsellingcosts.Theinnovatormayalsofindthattheforeignmarketislargeenoughtopermitmass-productionoperations.

DecliningPhase

Althoughaninnovatingnation’smonopolypositionmaybeprolongedbylegalpatents,itwilllikelybreakdownovertime,becauseinthelongrunknowledgetendstobeafreegoods.

Thebenefitsaninnovationnationachievesfromitstechnologicalgapareshort-lived,asimpo