德國外交關(guān)系理事會-德國和中東歐的天然氣和能源安全（英）-2022

GermanCouncilonForeignRelationsDr.GuntramWolffDirectorandCEOAlexandraDr.GuntramWolffDirectorandCEOAlexandraGritzStudentAssistanttoPOLICYBRIEFGasandEnergySecurityinGermanyandCentralandEasternEuropetheenergysecurityofCentralandEasternEurope.CountriesrespondedbyincreasingalternativegassuppliesandLNGimportcapacity.Gasflowsshiftedfromtheeast-westaxistowest-eastandnorth-southaxes.Intheshortterm,theusageofcoalisrising;inthelongerterm,renewableandnuclearenergy.MitigatingtheeffectsofthisshockrequirestheEUtoprioritizepoliciesthatfostertheintegrityandsecurityofitsenergymarket.Theindustry-heavyandgas-dependentregionishithardestbythegascutoff.Thusfar,significantenergysavingshavebeenachievedinGermanywithoutprovokingeconomiccollapse.Highregionaleconomicinterdependenceunderlinestheimpor-tanceofensuringcontinuedcross-bordergasflows.oreimportantasNorwegiangasandLNGreplacedRussiandeliveries.Inthemediumterm,boththeexpansionofLNGcapacityinPoland,theBaltics,andSoutheasternEuropeandincreasedinterconnectionswillcontributetothesecurityofsupply.–Theimpetustoexpandrenewablesshouldbemaintainedthroughastrongpricesignal.OnlywithcontinuedenergysavingsandtheprocurementanddistributionofgasfromtheglobalLNGmarketcanRussiansuppliesbereplaced.2No.38|December2022GasandEnergySecurityinGermanyandCentralandEasternEuropePOLICYBRIEFuntryhasalmostcompletelycutitsdeliveriesonTheresponsetothislargeshocktoenergysecuri-tyandtheeconomicsystemofGermanyandCen-tralandEasternEuropeconsistedoftwoessentialtioninthefinaldemandforgas.ContrarytowidelytutedwhichislocatedinCentralandEasternEuropewithsngintheenergymixwithoilandcoalplayingalargerAgencyHowEuropecancutnaturalgasimportsfromRussiasignificantlywithinayearMarch/news/how-europe-can-cut-natural-gas-imports-from-russia-significantly-within-a-year(accessedDecember6,2022).2FigureresultingfromourowncalculationsbasedondatafromtheInternationalEnergyAgency’sWorldEnergyBalances:/data-and-statistics/data-product/world-energy-balances-highlights(accessedDecember3,2022).3OECD,Currentaccountbalance(indicator):/10.1787/b2f74f3a-en(accessedDecember3,2022).lWilltheenergycrisiscrushEuropeanindustryFinancialTimesOctober/content/75ed449d-e9fd-41de-96bd-c92d316651da(accessedDecember5,2022).5ZukunftGas,“ErdgasinDeutschlandZahlenundFaktenfürdasJahr2021”[NaturalgasinGermanyFactsandfiguresfor2021],p.7:/fileadmin/Public/PDF-Download/Faktenblatt-Erdgas.pdf;GermanCouncilofEconomicExperts,“Energiekrisesolidarischbew?ltigen,neueRealit?tgestalten,Jahresgutachten”[Overcomingtheenergycrisisinsolidarity,shapingnewreality,annualreport],October28,2022,p.217:https://www.sachverstaendigenrat-wirtschaft.de/fileadmin/dateiablage/gutachten/jg202223/JG202223_Gesamtausgabe.pdf(bothaccessedDecember3,2022).6Ost-AusschussderDeutschenWirtschaft,OA-UpdateMittelosteuropa[OAUpdateCentralEasternEurope],September8,2022:https://www.ost-ausschuss.de/sites/default/files/paragraphs/pdf/2022-09/OA-UpdateMOE_02_2022.pdf(accessedDecember5,2022).7ChristianEndt,“SovielGasspartDeutschlandwirklich”[ThisishowmuchgasGermanyreallysaves],ZeitOnline,October14,2022:https://www.zeit.de/wirtschaft/2022-10/gasverbrauch-haushalte-datenanalyse-temperatur-energiekrise(accessedDecember3,2022).8See,forexample,BenMcWilliams:/McwilliamsBen/status/1587763102514290690/photo/1(accessedDecember4,2022).strialCompaniesinGermanyCutGasConsumptionwithoutCurbingProductionNovemberhttpswwwifodeen/press-release/2022-11-22/many-industrial-companies-germany-cut-gas-consumption-without-curbing(accessedDecember3,2022);Germantryseenote11AccordingtoOECDestimates,Poland,theCzechRepublic,Slovakia,Austria,andSloveniaareamongthecountrieswiththehighestsharesofentinvulnerablegasintensivesectorsOECDHowvulnerableisEuropeanmanufacturingtogassupplyconditionsAregionalapproachOECDPolicyResponsesontheImpactsoftheWarinUkraine:/10.1787/01278ba3-en(accessedDecember6,2022).No.38|December20223POLICYBRIEFGasandEnergySecurityinGermanyandCentralandEasternEuropePERCENTAGEOFTOTALNATURALGASIMPORTSTOGERMANYIN20220.50BEFRUPLJANFEBMARAPRMAYJUNJULAUGSEPOCTNOVSource:OwncalculationsbasedondatafromtheFederalNetworkAgencyforElectricity,Gas,Telecommunications,Post,andRailway,AktuelleLageGasversorgung:GasimporteinGWh/Tag[Currentsituationgassupply:GasimportsinGWh/day],December5,2022:https://www.bundesnetzagentur.de/DE/Gasversorgung/aktuelle_gasversorgung/_svg/Gasimporte/Gasimporte.html(accessedDecember5,2022)Inthispaper,wewillmapoutthechangingenergysituationinGermanyandCentralandEasternEu-SHIFTOFNATURALGASFLOWSINEUROPEFROMWESTTOEASTsorbillioncubicmetersbcmofnaturalgastoEurope,ofwhich550TWhweretransportedTWhviatheYamal-Europepipeline.14Now,easttoctoberafractionoftotalcapacityWhilefromJanuarytoOctober2022gasdeliverieswerehalfofthoseforthesameperiodin2021,theTheestimateddecreaseinRussiandeliveriescom-paredtolastyearis800TWh.18InresponsetothedneartotaldiscontinuationofRussiangasdeliveries,gasflowsfromwesttoeasthavein-imarygassupplier.19GermanyreliesonimportsofnaturalgasfromNorwayaswellasonimportsofLNGviaBelgiumandtheNetherlandswhilesimul-12InternationalEnergyAgency,CoalMarketUpdate–July2022:/reports/coal-market-update-july-2022/demand(accessedDecember3,2022).13Forbettercomparabilityoftheenergysupplypotentialsofvarioussources,gassuppliesaregiveningiga-orterawatthours.WeconvertbillioncubicmetersofnaturalgastoTWhthroughamultiplicationbytenthroughoutthispaper.14BenMcWilliamsetal.,Europeannaturalgasimports,BruegelDataset:/dataset/european-natural-gas-imports;BenanEuropesurvivepainlesslywithoutRussiangasJanuary/blog-post/can-europe-survive-painlessly-without-russian-gas(bothaccessedDecember5,2022).lEuropeliefertkeingasmehruberjamaleuropabothaccessedDecemberStuartElliottRussiangasflowstoEuropeslidefurtherinOctoberfallbelowBcmSPGlobalCommodityInsights,November2,2022:/commodityinsights/en/market-insights/latest-news/natural-gas/110222-russian-gas-flows-to-europe-slide-further-in-october-fall-below-2-bcm(accessedDecember5,2022)./reports/never-too-early-to-prepare-for-next-winter(accessedDecember5,.2022).bid/commodityinsights/en/market-insights/latest-news/natural-gas/113022-high-volatile-prices-in-europe-not-in-norways-interest-pm(accessedDecember3,2022).4No.38|December202276437938428828GasandEnergySecurityinGermanyandCentralandEasternEuropePOLICYBRIEF76437938428828eouslyreducingitsgasconsumptionwhichwasdownby33percentinOctober2022.20OfthetotalNorway,28percentfromtheNetherlands,and25of2022,keepingitthemainsupplierofLNGtoEu-ImportsthroughNorway’spipelineinfrastruc-turewillexceed1,170TWhin2022,secondonlytoLNGimportsof1,500TWh.23Thevolumedeliveredpipelinesinisfourtimeslargerpipeline,whichdeliveredapproximately300TWh.24apipelines;therefore,theriskresultingfromactsofinfrastructureafterunidentifieddroneswereseenmorethantenRussiancitizens,includingaformeryINTERNALGASMARKETGermanyAsamajorgastransithub,Germanyiscentraltoen-suringthattheEU’sinternalgasmarketfunctions.In2021,46.1percentofgrossGermangasimportswereexportedtoneighboringcountries.28In2022,59percentofGermangasexportsweredestinedfortheCzechRepublic.WhiletheshareofdtherethaninpreviousyearsGWhdayonGERMANNATURALGASIMPORTSANDEXPORTSINOCTOBER2022INGWH/DAYAvg.DailyupplyinOct.20222,407DOMESTICUSAGEANDSTORAGEINJECTIONOwnimagebasedondatafromtheFederalNetworkAgencyforElectricity,Gas,Telecommunications,Post,andRailway(seenotes20and29).20FederalNetworkAgencyforElectricity,Gas,Telecommunications,Post,andRailway,GasverbrauchinDeutschland2022inGWh/Tag,monatlicherMittelwert[GasconsumptioninGermany2022inGWh/day,monthlyaverage],November28,2022:https://www.bundesnetzagentur.de/DE/Gasversorgung/aktuelle_gasversorgung/_svg/Gasverbrauch_Gesamt_monatlich/Gasverbrauch_Gesamt_M.html(accessedDecember3,2022).21FederalNetworkAgencyforElectricity,Gas,Telecommunications,Post,andRailway,CurrentstatusofgassupplyinGermany,December5,2022:https://www.bundesnetzagentur.de/EN/Areas/Energy/Companies/SecurityOfSupply/GasSupply/start.html(accessedDecember5,2022).inSPGlobalCommodityInsightsOctober26,2022:/commodityinsights/en/market-insights/blogs/lng/102622-europe-lng-russian-gas-ukraine-war(accessedDecember6,2022).NoraBuliNorwayontrackforrecordgasexportwillbereadyforwinterGasscoCEOReutersSeptember2:/businessenergynorway-track-record-gas-export-will-be-ready-winter-gassco-ceo-2022-09-05/;GavinMaguire,“Europe‘smammothLNGimportbillmaydrainenergytransitioncoffers,”Reuters,October7,2022:/business/energy/europes-mammoth-lng-import-bill-may-drain-energy-transition-coffers-maguire-2022-10-06/(bothaccessedDecember5,2022).24McWilliamsetal.(seenote14).25NorwegianPetroleum,ExportsofOilandGas,October29,2022:https://www.norskpetroleum.no/en/production-and-exports/exports-of-oil-and-gas/#:~:text=Gas%20markets%20have%20become%20more,the%20Melk%C3%B8ya%20facility%20in%20Hammerfest(accessedDecember3,2022)./2022/09/28/norway-and-denmark-tighten-security-around-energy-infrastructure-after-pipeline-attack(accessedDecember3,2022).ctober/2022/10/26/risk-of-attack-on-norways-energy-facilities-reached-high-point/(accessedDecember3,2022).28FederalMinistryforEconomicAffairsandClimateAction,EnergyData:CompleteEdition:https://www.bmwk.de/Redaktion/EN/Artikel/Energy/energy-data.html(accessedDecember6,2022);FederalOfficeforEconomicAffairsandExportControl,Erdgasstatistik[naturalgasstatistic]:https://www.bafa.de/DE/Energie/Rohstoffe/Erdgasstatistik/erdgas_node.html(accessedDecember14,2022).No.38|December20225POLICYBRIEFGasandEnergySecurityinGermanyandCentralandEasternEuropeGermanexportstoAustriaandPolandincreasedngasdeliveriesfromtheeastThereLNGhasincreasedtheimportanceofGermanytotheshort-termsecurityofsupplyofitsneighbors.Thisissettochangeasnewgasinfrastructurecon-VisegrádCountriesWhilemanycountriesinCentralandEasternEu-ropearehighlydependentonRussiangasimports,theirpoliticalpositionsregardingRussiangasareheterogenous.Poland’sproactiveeffortstoreducedependenceonRussiangasimportsandHungary’sincreaseofRussiangassuppliesrepresenttwoendsofthespectrum.30PolandrecentlybeganoperatingtheBalticPipe,equivalentofuptosoexpandingitsLNGcapacityatthe?winouj?ciePolskieLNGTerminalandaFloatingStorageRe-gasificationUnit(FSRU)intheGulfofGdansk.32In-terconnectorsbetweenLithuaniaandPoland33andoperationalthisyear,therebylinkingtheBalticSeaEuropePolandhasnotreceivedRussiangassinceApril2022,whenitre-fusedrequestsforpaymentinrubles.35Polandin-tendstoceasegasimportsfromRussiaattheendof2022andisrelativelywellprepared.ReverseflowgasdeliveriestoPolandfromGermanyhaveincreasedGrouptheCzechRepublicSlovakiaandHungary–previouslyimportedover85percentoftheirnat-uralgasfromRussia.37AsinGermany,deliveriestoakiabegantodecreasestarklyinsummer2022andthenceasedentirely.BothcountrieshavereliedonNorwegianandLNGsupplies(transitingGermany)tofilltheirgasstor-ageaheadofwinter.HungaryissimilarlyreliantonRussiangasandcontinuestoreceivedeliveriesviatheTurkStreamandTransgaspipelines.38Addition-roSlovakiaareallrelyingmoreheavilyoncoaland/orhorttermThenewPolish-Slovakinterconnectormayhelpre-lievethesituationinSlovakiaandcouldbeusedtoiaSoutheasternEuropeIntheshortandmediumterm,SoutheasternEuropelookstoplayacrucialroleingasprovisioning.Newgasinfrastructureintheregion,whichissupportedbytheEU,couldprovidemorenaturalgasfromtheBlackSeaandCaspianBasin(Azerbaijan)toCentral29FederalNetworkAgencyforElectricity,Gas,Telecommunications,Post,andRailway,AktuelleLageGasversorgung:GasexporteinGWh/Tag[Currentsituationgassupply:GasexportsinGWh/day],December5,2022:https://www.bundesnetzagentur.de/DE/Fachthemen/ElektrizitaetundGas/Versorgungssicherheit/aktuelle_gasversorgung_/_svg/Gasexporte/Gasexporte.html?nn=1059464(accessedDecember5,2022).ommodityInsightsRussiabeginsextragasflowstoHungaryontopofcontractedvolumeofficialAugust/commodityinsights/en/market-insights/latest-news/natural-gas/081522-russia-begins-extra-gas-flows-to-hungary-on-top-of-contracted-volume-official(accessedDecember3,2022).https://ec.europa.eu/info/news/launch-baltic-pipe-2022-sep-27_en(accessedDecember3,2022).32GlobalEnergyMonitorWiki,SwinoujsciePolskieLNGTerminal:https://www.gem.wiki/%C5%9Awinouj%C5%9Bcie_Polskie_LNG_Terminal;GrzegorzLandowski,“Poland’sFSRUfloatingLNGterminalcapacitywillbedoubled,”PolandatSea,June7,2022:/polands-fsru-floating-lng-terminal-capacity-will-be-doubled/(bothaccessedDecember3,2022).https://ec.europa.eu/info/news/inauguration-gas-interconnection-between-poland-and-lithuania-2022-may-05_en(accessedDecember3,2022).enPolandandSlovakiaAugusthttps://ec.europa.eu/info/news/inauguration-gas-interconnector-between-poland-and-slovakia-2022-aug-26_en(accessedDecember3,2022).https://www.tagesschau.de/ausland/europa/energie-polen-baltic-pipeline-103.html(accessedDecember3,2022).apsEuropeanmarkettoreplacegasfromGazpromApril/newsroom/top-stories/78672/(accessedDecember3,2022).FoundationAprilhttpseuboellorg/en/2022/04/21/how-break-czechias-dependence-russian-gas;SergioVelasco,“ThepipelinethatcouldhelpSlovakiabecomelessdependentonRussiangaswithPolishhelp,”WarsawInstitute,July26,2022:/pipeline-help-slovakia-become-less-dependent-russian-banexpectsgasdealwithRussiathissummerJulyhttpswwwreuterscombusinessenergyhungary-pm-sees-deal-with-russia-by-end-summer-more-gas-supplies-2022-07-29/(allaccessedDecember3,2022).WilhelminePreussenHungarysignsnewdealwithGazprom,”Politico,August31,2022:https://www.politico.eu/article/hungary-signs-deal-with-gazprom-over-additional-gas/(accessedDecember3,2022).SylviaBeyerandGergelyMolnarAcceleratingenergydiversificationinCentralandEasternEurope”InternationalEnergyAgency,September14,2022:/commentaries/accelerating-energy-diversification-in-central-and-eastern-europe(accessedDecember3,2022).ote6No.38|December2022GasandEnergySecurityinGermanyandCentralandEasternEuropePOLICYBRIEFandEasternEurope.41TheTrans-AdriaticPipeline,thefirstphaseoftheBRUAPipeline(Bulgaria-Ro-mania-Hungary-Austria),andtheKrkLNGterminalalltookupoperationsin2020and2021.Intercon-oGreeceRomaniaandSerThesedevelopmentsindicatethatthenorth-southaxisofgasinfrastructurewillplayamoreextensiveeasternEuropeancountriesinthemediumterm,therebydecreasingtheimportanceofwesttoeastflowsthatbecamevitalintheimmediateaftermathTIGHTGASMARKETDEMANDSALTERNATEENERGYSOURCESIn2022,theEUrapidlyexpandeditsLNGimportcapacityinamovetodiversifygassupplies.Fivefloatingstorageandregasificationterminals,eachprovidingacapacitytoimportapproximately502023inGermanyalone.43Lookingahead,thecom-PoWhyearto500TWh/yearbytheendof2023andto1,000astructureandinterconnectionshaveincreasedthelyCentralandEasternEuropeTheseadditionalimportcapacitiesdonotnecessarilymeanhtinItsuppliesin2022benefittedgreatlyfromdecreasedldtheeconomyrecovaareesNGsupplyin2023andbuythe190TWhitdidnotde-mandthisyear.46TheInternationalEnergyAgencymandgapof300TWhduringtherefillingperiodnextyear,whichwouldleadtogasstorageatonly65percentofcapacityaheadofthe2023/24heat-ingperiod.47Inthiscontext,ideastocapthepricetasin2023,48itisnotunlikelythatgassuppliestose-atheofiswinterwouldsignificantlyalleviatede41EuropeanCommission,REPowerEUPlan,COM(2022)230,May18,2022,p.9:https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=COM%3A2022%3A230%3AFIN&qid=1653033742483(accessedDecember3,2022).42EuropeanCommission:AnnexestotheREPowerEUPlan,May18,2022:https://energy.ec.europa.eu/system/files/2022-05/COM_2022_230_1_EN_annexe_autre_acte_part1_v4.pdf(accessedDecember3,2022).FederalMinistryforEconomicAffairsandClimateActionHabeckStandortentscheidungfürzweiweitereschwimmendeFlüssigerdgasterminalsistgefallen”[Habeck:Locationdecisionfortwomorefloatingliquefiednaturalgasterminalshasbeenmade],July19,2022:https://www.bmwk.de/Redaktion/DE/Pressemitteilungen/2022/07/20220719-habeck-standortentscheidung-fur-zwei-weitere-schwimmende-flussigerdgasterminals-ist-gefallen.html(accessedDecember3,2022).aBeyerandGergelyMolnarAcceleratingenergydiversificationinCentralandEasternEuropeseenote45Ibid.NoraBuliIEAsaysEuropemustactnowtoavoidwinter3gasshortages,”Reuters,November3,2022:/business/energy/iea-calls-urgent-action-european-gas-supply-gap-2022-11-03/(accessedDecember6,2022).eenoteIbidp.mmissionREPowerEUCommissionstepsupgreentransitionawayfromRussiangasbyacceleratingrenewablespermittingSeptember1,2022:https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_22_6657(accessedDecember6,2022).er/business/energy/europe-course-end-winter-with-plenty-gas-kemp-2022-11-28/(accessedDecember5,2022).No.38|December202275503203906070200270100370<19080230POLICYBRIEFGasandEnergySecurityinGermanyandCentralandEasternEurope5503203906070200270100370<19080230PREWARVSPOSTWARGASFLOWSINTWHGASTRANSPORTVIAPIPELINEINFRASTRUCTUREGLOBALLNG8802024GASTRANSPORTVIAPIPELINEINFRASTRUCTUREGLOBALLNGSchematicillustrationofgasinfrastructuresupplyingCentralandEasternEuropewithnaturalgasin2021(image1)andin2024(image2).Note:Forecastgasinfrastructurefor2024isbasedonannouncedplansforinfrastructuralexpansionandauthors’estimates.OnlyLNGcapacitygreaterthan50TWh/yearislisted.ThecapacityoftheBalticStatesaswellastheLNGcapacityofBelgiumandtheNetherlandsisaggregated.FiguresforNorwayreflectthetotalexportstoEurope(pipelineandLNG).Arrowsindicatetheprimarydirectionofgastransmission.Source:McWilliamsetal.basedonEntsogdata(seenote14);GiovanniSgaravattietal.,“Nationalenergypolicyresponsestotheenergycrisis,”BruegelDatasets,November11,2022:/dataset/national-energy-policy-responses-energy-crisis;EuropeanCommission,“Diversificationofgassupplysourcesandroutes”:https://energy.ec.europa.eu/topics/energy-security/diversification-gas-supply-sources-and-routes_en;InternationalEnergyAgency,GasMarketReportQ4-2021,p.83:/assets/261043cc-0cb6-498b-98fa-a1f48715b91f/GasMarketReportQ42021.pdf(allaccessedDecember3,2022).8No.38|December2022RenewablesGasandEnergySecurityinGermanyandCentralandEasternEuropePOLICYBRIEFRenewablesenergycapacityiskeytoshiftingawayfromgas.Inrenewablecapacity(44TWhannually)hasreplacedTheextentofrenewableexpansionintheEUismixed,however.Together,Spain,theNetherlands,andGreeceaccountforoverhalfofallgrowthinwindandsolaroutputintheEUsince2019whileBulgaria,theCzechRepublic,andRomaniahaverytoacceleratetherolloutofrenewableenergyanddecarbonizationofindustriesinlinewithitsRE-PowerEUobjectives.55TheCzechRepublic,Poland,andSlovakia,amongothers,haveeasedregulationEasternEuropeancountrieshavealsoannouncedtheircoalphase-outdates.56Germanyhassetam-bitiousplanstonearlytriplewindandsolarcapac-ityby2030.57Thiswouldyieldapproximately1,200GWh/dayincontrasttotheaverage440GWh/dayuropeanComtoalonewouldsave210TWh/yearinnaturalgasbytiachievingtheFitfor55andREPowerEUobjectives,–theequivalentoftheEUimportofRussiangasin2021–by2027andatotalof3,100TWhby2030.61WhethertheseambitiousEUandnationaltargetsNuclearEnergyNumerouscountriesinCentralandEasternEuropehaveannouncedplanstoexpandnuclearenergycapacity:?InSlovakia,anewnuclearunitcapableofgeneratingalmostaquarterofthecountry’selectricitycon-sumptioncameonlinein2022.Startingin2024,anadditionalunitwillmakeSlovakiaanetelectricityexporter.62?RussianenergygiantRosatomissettoconstructtwonewreactorsattheHungarianPaksnuclearplantby2030.63Thiswoulddoublethecapacityoftheplant,whichcurrentlygenerates40percentof52CharlesMoore,EuropeanElectricityReview2022,Ember,February1,2022:HYPERLINK"/insights/research/european-electricity-review-2022/#supporti