研究生英語教程Unit1

Unit1CreatingaLow-CarbonEconomy創(chuàng)建低碳生活Overview概述1.Thereisnolongeranyrealquestionthatglobalwarmingisoccurringastheresultoftherapidbuild-upofgreenhousegasesprimarilycausedbyhumanactivities.Weareonatrajectoryforglobalwarmingtobecomemuchmoreintenseunlesswebeginaconcerted,rapidshifttowardalow-carboneconomy.Andthedangerisincreasinglyclearandpresent.AsRajendraPachauri,chairmanoftheIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChangeandrecipientofthe2007NobelPeacePrize,hassaid,“Ifthere’snoactionbefore2012,that’stoolate.Whatwedointhenexttwotothreeyearswilldetermineourfuture.Thisisthedefiningmoment.”人再持有異議。除非我們協(xié)同一致，快速轉(zhuǎn)向低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)，否則全球變暖的趨勢(shì)將會(huì)愈演愈烈。這一危機(jī)日益彰顯逼近。正如獲得2007年諾貝爾和平獎(jiǎng)的聯(lián)合國(guó)政府間氣候變化專門委員會(huì)（IPCC）主席拉金德拉·帕喬里所聲稱的：“如果在2012年之前我們還沒有采取行動(dòng)，那就為時(shí)已晚了。我們?cè)谖磥韮傻饺曛械乃魉鶠閷Q定我們的未來。這是決定性的時(shí)刻?！?.TheEarth’saveragetemperaturehasalreadyincreasedby0.8°C（about1.4°F）overpre-industriallevels,increasingatarateof0.2°Cperdecadesince1975,andwithoutchangingourcourse,wewilllockseveralmoredegreesofchangeintothesystem.Suchtemperatureshiftsmaysoundsmall,buttheyarenot.Duringthelasticeage,averageglobaltemperaturewasonlyabout5.4°C（about9.7°F）colderthanitisnow.0.81.4華氏度左1975年以來每十年增加0.2那么溫度還會(huì)繼續(xù)發(fā)生永久性的變化。這種溫度變化聽起來似乎不大，但事實(shí)并非如此。最后一個(gè)冰河時(shí)代時(shí)的全球平均氣溫不過比現(xiàn)今低約5.4攝氏度（9.7華氏度）。3.Manyofourleadingclimatescientistshavewarnedthatifweexceed2.0°C（about）abovepre-industrialtimes,wewillenteradangerous,unchartedterritory.Nooneknowsatwhatprecisetemperaturetheeffectsofglobalwarmingbecomeintolerablylarge,whetherasaresultofgradualworseningofdroughts,floods,hurricanes,andheatwavesorasaresultofabrupt,catastrophicchange,suchasthecollapseoftheGreenlandorWestAntarcticicesheetsandtheaccompanyingglobalswellinsealevels.Butweareconductingadangerousuncontrolledexperimentwiththeonlyhomewehave.Thisiswhyyoungpeopleinincreasingnumbersarestartingtoseeclimatechangeasthechallengeoftheirgeneration.業(yè)化前2攝氏度（3.6華氏度）的話，我們將會(huì)邁進(jìn)一個(gè)危險(xiǎn)的未知國(guó)度。旱、洪水、颶風(fēng)以及熱浪等自然災(zāi)害的逐漸惡化，造成諸如格陵蘭島或西南么越來越多的年輕人開始將氣候變化視為他們這一代人的一項(xiàng)挑戰(zhàn)。4.TheWashingtonPostreportedinAprilthat,“Formanychildrenandyoungadults,globalwarmingistheatomicbomboftoday.FearsofanenvironmentalcrisisaredefiningtheirgenerationinwaysthattheDepression,WorldWarⅡ,VietnamandtheColdWar’slingering‘WarGames’etchedsoulsinthe20thcentury.”《華盛頓郵報(bào)》4月刊報(bào)導(dǎo)到：“對(duì)于許多兒童和青年而言，全球氣候變暖無異于當(dāng)今的原子彈。對(duì)于環(huán)境危機(jī)的擔(dān)憂正影響著這一代人，正如經(jīng)濟(jì)大蕭條、第二次世界大戰(zhàn)、越南戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)和冷戰(zhàn)等等揮之不去的戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)游戲影響了20世紀(jì)的靈魂一樣?！?.Someofthedireprojectionsmaynotoccur,butinlightofthewarningsfromourbestscientists,itwouldbeyondirresponsibletotakethatbet.Scientistsaretellingusifwedonottakeactionsoon,itwillbelatetoavoidthemostseriousconsequencesofglobalwarming.告，如果我們?cè)倜半U(xiǎn)嘗試將是極不負(fù)責(zé)任的做法?？茖W(xué)家告訴我們，如果我們不盡快采取行動(dòng)，想要避免全球變暖引發(fā)的最嚴(yán)重惡果則為時(shí)晚矣。EnvironmentCosts環(huán)境損失6.Theprojectedenvironmentconsequencesofclimatechangearewellknown.Theonlythingthatkeepschanging,withthesteadydrumbeatofnewandbetterscientificdataandanalysis,isthatthepicturegetsmoreandmoreserious.InthewordsofHarvard’sJohnHoldren,oneofourleadingsciencepolicythinkers,globalclimatechangeisthemostdangerousofallenvironmentproblemsbecauseclimaterepresentstheenvelopewithinwhichournaturalsystemsoperate.Bybadlydisruptingthatenvelope,we“adverselyaffecteverydimensionofhumanwell-beingthatistiedtotheenvironment.”分析，唯一保持不斷變化的景象就是越來越糟的環(huán)境。作為首席科學(xué)政策?！ぷ钗ｋU(xiǎn)的，因?yàn)闅夂蚓拖褚粋€(gè)信封，保障其中所有自然生態(tài)系統(tǒng)正常運(yùn)作。如果這一包裹層遭到嚴(yán)重破壞，我們就會(huì)“對(duì)環(huán)境影響下人類福祉的每一個(gè)層面產(chǎn)生不利影響?！?.TheFourthAssessmentReportonClimateChangeImpactsreleasedinApril2007bytheIPCC,theofficialbodyofover2,000scientistsactingundertheauspicesoftheUnitedNations,presentsastarkpicture.TheIPCCreportsaysthat“humaninducedclimatechangeisalreadyaffectingphysicalandbiologicalprocessesonallcontinentsandsomeoceans.”Amongotherimpacts,thereportwarnsof:在聯(lián)合國(guó)的主持下，IPCC2000多名科學(xué)家組成的官方機(jī)構(gòu)于2007年4月發(fā)布了關(guān)于氣候變化影響的第四次評(píng)估報(bào)告，為人們展示了一幅鮮明的預(yù)警圖。IPCC的報(bào)告聲稱“人類活動(dòng)引起的氣候變化已經(jīng)影響到所有大陸和一些海洋的物理及生物進(jìn)程”。在諸多影響中，該報(bào)告尤其警告：Extremeweathereventssuchasdrought,floods,andseverestorms,includinghurricanes,becomingmoreintenseandinflictinggreaterdamagetolifeandproperty.極端天氣事件，如干旱、洪水和嚴(yán)重的風(fēng)暴，包括颶風(fēng)，將變得更加嚴(yán)重，對(duì)生命和財(cái)產(chǎn)造成更大損害。Increasinghurricaneintensity.（otherrecentscientificfindingssuggestthatnotjusttheintensitybutalsothefrequencyofhurricanesisincreasingwithrisingsea-surfacetemperatures.）颶風(fēng)強(qiáng)度增加。（其他最新科學(xué)研究結(jié)果表明，不只是強(qiáng)度，颶風(fēng)的頻率也會(huì)增加，同時(shí)伴隨海表面溫度升高）。Risingsealevelsthreateningthemega-deltaregionsofAsia,coastalcitiesinEurope,low-lyingareasinNorthandLatinAmerica,andsmallislands.ThemeltingoftheGreenlandicesheetalonecouldleadtoasea-levelriseofsevenmeters.海平面上升，威脅亞洲的大型三角洲地區(qū)、歐洲沿海城市、北美和拉丁美洲的低洼地區(qū)，及小島嶼。單是格陵蘭冰原融化就可能導(dǎo)致海平面上升7米。Increasedwaterscarcityfacing1billionto2billionpeople.水資源匱乏問題惡化，10億至20億人口面臨缺水。Increasedriskofheat-andflood-relatedmortalityandofwaterandfood-bornediseases.發(fā)生高溫及洪水造成死亡、水及食物傳染疾病的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)增加。Decliningcropyieldsandincreasedhungerinsomeregions,includingpartsofAfricaandAsia.作物產(chǎn)量下降，一些地區(qū)饑荒嚴(yán)重，包括非洲和亞洲的部分地區(qū)。Degradingfisheries.漁業(yè)不景氣。Decliningcoralreefsystems.珊瑚礁系統(tǒng)退化。Extinctionfacing20percentto30percentofglobalplantandanimallife.全球20％至30％的植物和動(dòng)物面臨滅絕。EconomicCosts經(jīng)濟(jì)損失8.Thereissubstantialuncertaintyaboutthepreciseeconomiccostsofclimatechange,butifwecontinuetoourcurrentpaththereislittledoubtthatoveralltheywouldbeverylarge.Alookattrendlinesfromtheinsuranceindustrygivesahintofthekindofrisingmagnitudeofdamagewemightseefromjustoneprojectedeffectofglobalwarming—extremeweatherevents.關(guān)于氣候變化的具體經(jīng)濟(jì)成本很難確定，但如果我們不改變做法，這筆數(shù)字無疑會(huì)非常龐大。參考保險(xiǎn)業(yè)的趨勢(shì)，我們可以得到這樣一個(gè)暗示，當(dāng)損害里，其中之一就是極端天氣現(xiàn)象的產(chǎn)生。9.AtthemeetingoftheU.N.FrameworkConventiononClimateChangeinMoroccoin2001,largereinsurancecompanies（whichofferinsurancetootherinsurers）suchasSwissReandMunichRewarnedoftheincreaseinextremeweatherevents.AccordingtoMunichRe,“Thenumberofreallybigweatherdisastershasincreasedfour-foldifwecomparethelastdecadetothe1960s.Theeconomiclosseshaveleapedseven-foldandtheinsuredlossesare11timesgreater.”In2004,SwissRewarnedinareportthatthecostsofnaturaldisasters,aggravatedbyclimatechange,threatenedtodoubleto$150billionayearin10years.2001大型再保險(xiǎn)公司（為其他保險(xiǎn)公司提供保險(xiǎn)）發(fā)出警告表示極端天氣事件一再增加。據(jù)慕尼黑再保險(xiǎn)公司聲稱：“如果我們把過去十年和20世紀(jì)60年47倍，保險(xiǎn)損失也提高了11倍?！?004年瑞士再保險(xiǎn)公司在一份報(bào)告中警告說，氣候變化加劇導(dǎo)致的自然災(zāi)害損失在未來10年內(nèi)可能每年都會(huì)翻倍至1500億美元。10.Moresystematically,themuchdiscussedSternReviewoftheEconomicsofClimateChange,commissionedbytheBritishgovernmentandauthoredbySirNicholasStern,formerChiefEconomistfortheWorldBank,concludesthateconomicdamagesfromclimatechangecouldbeseismic:·特恩評(píng)論氣候變化下的經(jīng)濟(jì)》引起了廣泛討論，他在其中更系統(tǒng)地總結(jié)到氣候變化帶來的經(jīng)濟(jì)損失可能影響巨大：Ouractionsoverthecomingfewdecadescouldcreaterisksofmajordisruptiontoeconomicandsocialactivity,laterinthiscenturyandinthenext,onascalesimilartothoseassociatedwiththegreatwarsandeconomicdepressionofthefirsthalfofthetwentiethcentury.Anditwillbedifficultorimpossibletoreversethesechanges.在未來的幾十年里，我們的行為可能會(huì)對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)和社會(huì)活動(dòng)造成很大破壞，在本世紀(jì)末及下世紀(jì)，其規(guī)模類似二十世紀(jì)前半葉大戰(zhàn)和經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退帶來的相關(guān)影響。想要逆轉(zhuǎn)這些變化很難，甚至是不可能的。11.Sternseesthethreatofthismajordisruptioncomingfromanumberoffactors,includingtheincreasedcostsofdamagefromextremeweathereventssuchasfloods,droughts,hurricanes,heatwaves,andmajorstorms;theriskthatsucheventsaffectglobalfinancialmarketsthroughhigherormorevolatileininsurancecosts;andtheriskofabruptandlarge-scaleclimatechange.Sternalsopointstotheconsequencesofclimatechangeonenvironmentandonhumanhealthaseconomicgrowthandproductivitysufferundertheweightofdegradingenvironmentalconditions.斯特恩認(rèn)為造成這一重大破壞的成因很多，包括：如洪水、干旱、颶風(fēng)、熱浪、大暴雨等極端天氣現(xiàn)象所造成的損失越來越大；由于保險(xiǎn)費(fèi)用更高或更不穩(wěn)定，此類現(xiàn)象可能影響全球金融市場(chǎng)；同時(shí)存在突發(fā)大規(guī)模氣候變化的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。斯特恩還指出，迫于環(huán)境條件惡化，經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)緩慢，生產(chǎn)力下降，氣候變化對(duì)環(huán)境和人類健康可能帶來哪些后果。BuildingaLow-CarbonEconomy創(chuàng)建低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)12.Todesignpoliciesaimedatcreatingalow-carboneconomy,weneedtounderstandfirsttheextenttowhichglobalaveragetemperaturescanrisewithouttriggeringthedangerousconsequencesofglobalwarmingand,second,howlowweneedtokeeptheatmosphericconcentrationofgreenhousegasesinordertostaywithinthattemperaturelimit.bothofthesequestions（thetemperaturelimitandtheconcentrationlimit）mustbeansweredbasedonscientificanalysisofhistoricclimatedataandprojectionsoffutureconditions,andstate-of-the-artcomputermodelspaintastarkpictureofwhatistocome.均氣溫上升卻不會(huì)觸發(fā)全球變暖的危險(xiǎn)后果。第二，在溫度極限內(nèi)要保持多低的大氣溫室氣體濃度。回答這兩個(gè)問題（溫度極限和濃度極限）必須運(yùn)用進(jìn)的計(jì)算機(jī)模型所描繪出鮮明的未來預(yù)測(cè)圖。13.Asnoted,globalmeantemperatureisabout0.8°C（1.4°F）abovepre-industriallevels,andanother0.6°C（1.1°F）offurtherwarmingisprobablybuiltintothesystemalready.Evenifwecutoffemissionstomorrow,theconcentrationofgreenhousegasesintheatmospherewouldcontinuerisingsincethesegasespersistintheatmosphereforaverylongtime–fromdecadestothousandsofyearsaftertheyarefirstemitteddependingonthespecifictypeofgreenhousegas.0.81.4并且將永久性再升高0.6攝氏度（1.1華氏度）。即使我們明天停止排放，間——不同溫室氣體一經(jīng)排放，可能保留幾十年甚至幾千年。14.Theevidenceismountingfortheneedtomaintainglobalaveragetemperaturesatnomorethanapproximately（3.6°Fabovepre-industriallevels,aleveltheCenterforAmericanProgressandotherscalledforin2005in“MeetingtheClimateChallenge,”thereportoftheInternationalClimateChangeTaskForcethatwaschairedbySen.OlympiaSnowe（R-ME）andU.K.MemberofParliamentStephenByers.AsJohnHoldrenhasdiscussed,thescientificviewofanappropriatetemperaturetargethasevolvedrecentlydownward:其證據(jù)是我們?cè)⑷蚱骄鶜鉁乇３衷诓怀龉I(yè)化前溫度約2.0攝3.62005年撰寫的一份名為《迎接氣候挑戰(zhàn)需要》的報(bào)告中所倡導(dǎo)的，該報(bào)告隸屬于由參議員奧林匹亞·R-ME·拜爾斯主持的國(guó)際氣候變·經(jīng)下調(diào)：Untilafewyearsagomanyanalysisandgroupsweresuggestingthatstabilizationofatmosphericconcentrationsatalevelcorrespondingtoaincreasewasinfactasuitabletarget…Thelastfewyearsofaccumulatingevidenceaboutimpactsalreadybeingencounteredatonly0.8°Cabovethepre–industrialaveragetemperature,however,haveledmanyanalysistoargueforamoreambitioustarget,witheincludingtheEuropeansettlingon2°C.3攝氏度的水平是合適的目標(biāo)……但是前幾年比工業(yè)化前平均溫度僅高出的0.8攝氏度所國(guó)家（包括歐盟）將其設(shè)定在2攝氏度。15.Ifatemperaturetargetinthisrangeisnotmaintained,theplanetfacesseriousrisks.InaFebruary2007statementtoU.NSecretary-GeneralBanKi-moon,andtheU.K.CommissiononSustainableDevelopment,Holdrensaid:如果這一范圍內(nèi)的溫度目標(biāo)沒有實(shí)現(xiàn)，地球?qū)⒚媾R嚴(yán)重風(fēng)險(xiǎn)?；魻柕聜愒?007年2月向聯(lián)合國(guó)秘書長(zhǎng)潘基文及聯(lián)合國(guó)可持續(xù)發(fā)展委員提交的聲明中說：Ifthebuild-upofgreenhousegasespushestheglobalaveragesurfacetemperaturepast2-2.5°Cabovethepre-industriallevel,thedangerofintolerableandunmanageableimpactsofclimatechangeonhumanwell-beingbecomesveryhigh.2-2.5攝氏度的水平，那么人類將難以承受、無法治理的氣候變化就非常有可能發(fā)生，并對(duì)人類的福祉產(chǎn)生影響。16.Dr.JamesHansen,thenotedclimatescientistatNASA’sGoddardInstitudeforSpaceStudies,hasissuedsimilarwarnings:美國(guó)宇航局戈達(dá)德空間研究所的著名氣候?qū)W家詹姆斯·漢森博士發(fā)出了類似的警告：Weconcludethatglobalwarmingofmorethanabout1°C,relativeto2000,willconstitute“dangerous”climatechangeasjudgedfromlikelyeffectsonsealevelandexterminationofspecies.我們的結(jié)論是相對(duì)2000年的，全球氣候變暖超過1攝氏度將構(gòu)成“危險(xiǎn)”的氣候變化，這一點(diǎn)從海平面上升和物種滅絕可能產(chǎn)生的影響就可以做出判斷。17.TheIPCC,initsFourthAssessmentReportonMitigationofClimateChange,publishedinMay2007,analyzestheconcentrationlevelsthatcorrespondtoestimatedincreasesintheglobalmeanaveragetemperatureabovepre-industriallevels.Accordingtothisanalysis,keepingaveragetemperaturetoanincreaseintherangeof2.0°Cto2.4°CwouldrequireaCOequivalentconcentration–or2COe,whichisameasurementthatexpressestheglobalwarmingpotentialofall2greenhousegasescomparedtoCO–intherangeof445partspermillionto4902partspermillion,a