天然氣產(chǎn)量峰值量化評估方法

ICS75.060CCSE24T/SSCIPACIPAXXXtativeevaluationmethodforpeaknaturalgasproduction(征求意見稿)四川省科技協(xié)同創(chuàng)新促進(jìn)會發(fā)布TSSCIPAXXX3I前言 II1范圍 12規(guī)范性引用文件 13術(shù)語和定義 14評估原則 15評估流程 26評估方法 27評估報告 4附錄A(規(guī)范性)天然氣產(chǎn)量峰值預(yù)測模型 5附錄B(資料性)儲產(chǎn)耦合預(yù)測法計算實例 8附錄C(資料性)天然氣產(chǎn)量峰值量化評估報告 11TSSCIPAXXX3前言請注意本文件的某些內(nèi)容可能涉及專利。本文件的發(fā)布機(jī)構(gòu)不承擔(dān)識別專利的責(zé)任。四川省科技協(xié)同創(chuàng)新促進(jìn)會歸口。XXX。TSSCIPAXXX31天然氣產(chǎn)量峰值量化評估方法報告。適用于盆地級或氣田群的天然氣產(chǎn)量峰值量化評估。范性引用文件，GBT19492油氣礦產(chǎn)資源儲量分類DZT0217石油天然氣儲量估算規(guī)范DZT0334石油天然氣探明儲量報告編寫規(guī)范SYT天然氣可采儲量計算方法SYT氣藏分類SYT石油天然氣勘探開發(fā)常用量和單位定義DZT0217界定的以及下列術(shù)語和定義適用于本文件。峰值peaknaturalgasproduction盆地級或氣田群的天然氣產(chǎn)量達(dá)到最大規(guī)模(上下波動不超過5％)、持續(xù)穩(wěn)產(chǎn)時間不低于20年時。reservesinplacepeaknaturalgasproduction評估原則化應(yīng)符合以下原則：——針對盆地級或氣田群的天然氣產(chǎn)量發(fā)展趨勢及其與勘探開發(fā)階段、資料豐富程度等影響因素TSSCIPAXXX32——根據(jù)天然氣產(chǎn)量峰值隨時間及各影響因素之間的變化規(guī)律，對未來一段時間的峰值產(chǎn)量進(jìn)行評估天然氣產(chǎn)量峰值。評估流程量化評估流程按以下步驟進(jìn)行：——基礎(chǔ)資料收集；——主控因素分析；——選擇適合的預(yù)測方法；——盆地油氣產(chǎn)量增長趨勢預(yù)測；——預(yù)測結(jié)果的綜合評估。方法時間序列模型法應(yīng)用范圍。模型類別附錄A的規(guī)定，宜選用以下模型進(jìn)行歷史數(shù)據(jù)的擬合：a)修正的翁氏(Weng)模型；b)修正的威布爾(Weibull)模型；c)哈伯特(Hubbert)模型；d)高斯(Gauss)模型；e)沃德(Ward)模型。選擇預(yù)測模型確認(rèn)模型參數(shù)資料求得的計算參數(shù)，選用一種有代表性的參數(shù)。，相關(guān)系數(shù)按計算公式(1)、(2)、(3)進(jìn)行：iYiyi····································································(1)6=·········································································(2)R······················································(3)TSSCIPAXXX33?標(biāo)準(zhǔn)差；值。預(yù)測峰值儲產(chǎn)耦合預(yù)測法應(yīng)用范圍、儲采比等作為邊界條件，對天然氣產(chǎn)量峰值進(jìn)行預(yù)測。分析影響因素6.2.2.1應(yīng)考慮地質(zhì)特征、理論技術(shù)進(jìn)步、市場、需求、政策因素、勘探投入及天然氣價格對盆地天分析影響產(chǎn)量增長趨勢的內(nèi)外部環(huán)境。6.2.2.2根據(jù)地質(zhì)模型，建立數(shù)值模擬模型，選擇與之相適應(yīng)的數(shù)學(xué)模型和軟件，在盆地的資源量和明程度、采出程度等生產(chǎn)史擬合基礎(chǔ)上，對預(yù)測對象的儲量高峰進(jìn)行定性判斷。預(yù)測峰值b)通過多旋回Hubbert/Gauss模型(見A.6)預(yù)測某一年份a的新增探明儲量a；c以最終可采儲量URR為邊界條件，通過Weng/Weibull模型(見A.7)預(yù)測該年份a的產(chǎn)量數(shù)產(chǎn)量預(yù)測不確定性分析類比法應(yīng)用范圍TSSCIPAXXX34類比參數(shù)、儲層物性、氣藏類型、天然氣性質(zhì)、始穩(wěn)定產(chǎn)量、驅(qū)動類型、氣藏壓力、儲量豐度等，按GB/T19492進(jìn)行分類細(xì)化。預(yù)測峰值似的流體性質(zhì)等條件，分類見SY/T6168。類比的經(jīng)濟(jì)采收率原則上不高于已開發(fā)氣藏，根據(jù)運(yùn)算過程中：——速度類比法：將類比氣藏劃分為早期、中期和后期，低勘探氣藏給定產(chǎn)量起點(diǎn)，類比高勘探線。編寫要求，并對過程性數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行展示和描述，進(jìn)而給出產(chǎn)量峰值預(yù)測結(jié)果的綜合評估。報告內(nèi)容——勘探開發(fā)歷程圖；。TSSCIPAXXX35年氣產(chǎn)量/(10^8m3) 原始數(shù)據(jù)年氣產(chǎn)量/(10^8m3) 原始數(shù)據(jù)=8.1α=8.2α=8.3α=8.4α=8.5附錄A(規(guī)范性)量峰值預(yù)測模型A.1修正的翁氏(Weng)模型修正的翁氏(Weng)模型按公式(A.1)、(A.2)計算：Q=a1[Btnea2(?at)]···························································(A.1)NRR=a1[NRea2(?at)]························································(A.2)a1——倍數(shù)修正因子，按公式(A.3)計算；2a1=[∏N/2]N··························································(A.3)a2——指數(shù)修正因子，按公式(A.4)計算；a················································(A.4)NRR——剩余可采儲量，單位為億立方米(108m3)；Q0——原始產(chǎn)量值，單位為億立方米每年(108m3/a)；NQ0序列包含的元素個數(shù)；B—翁氏模型參數(shù)；NR——可采儲量，單位為億立方米(108m3)；00008004001950200020502100時間/aA.2修正的威布爾(Weibull)模型修正的威布爾(Weibull)模型按公式(A.5)、(A.6)計算：Q=a1[ta?1ea2(?ta?F)]·····················································(A.5)NRR=a1[NRea2(?ta?F)]·························································(A.6)lTSSCIPAXXX36年氣產(chǎn)量/(10^8m3)3000年氣產(chǎn)量/(10^8m3)300025002000原始數(shù)據(jù)α=9.2α=9.3α=9.4α=9.550000050001950200020502100時間/aA.3哈伯特(Hubbert)模型多峰哈伯特模型表達(dá)式按公式(A.7)計算：Q·····································(A.7)b模型參數(shù)；ttmQm——峰值產(chǎn)量，單位為億立方米(108m3)。A.4高斯(Gauss)模型多峰高斯模型按公式(A.9)計算：2QQmes2QQmes························································(A.8)2Q=∑=1{QmQ=∑=1{Qme2s2}i·······················································(A.9)A.5沃德(Ward)模型沃德(Ward)模型采用一組增長曲線來描述未來產(chǎn)量，按公式(A.10)計算：Q=Q0ekt(1?)·····················································(A.10)Q0——原始產(chǎn)量值，單位為億立方米(108m3)；k始指數(shù)增長率；URR，單位為億立方米(108m3)。TSSCIPAXXX37Qm=······································Qm=··································································(A.14)A.6多峰哈伯特(Hubbert)儲產(chǎn)耦合模型使預(yù)測結(jié)果更加符合現(xiàn)場實際情況。多峰哈伯特儲產(chǎn)耦和模型按公式(A.11)、(A.12)計算：Q=∑=1······················································(A.11)b=4Qm?URR······························································(A.12)A.7多峰高斯(Gauss)儲產(chǎn)耦和模型多峰高斯儲產(chǎn)耦和模型按公式(A.13)、(A.14)計算：2Q=∑=1{Qm2Q=∑=1{Qme2s2}i·····················································(A.13)TSSCIPAXXX3899附錄B(資料性)合預(yù)測法計算實例B最終可采儲量(URR)評估B (如圖B.1)。天然氣產(chǎn)量曲線目前保持著快速增長的趨勢，與Hubbert預(yù)測模型(見A.6)和Gauss預(yù)測A.7)在曲線增長前期的趨勢一致。706050403020年產(chǎn)量原始數(shù)據(jù)4628.037.753.160.6450.0440.000.64520122014201620182020B.1.2由于震旦系氣藏的天然氣勘探開發(fā)時間較短，對氣藏的認(rèn)知程度不夠。先通過數(shù)值計算法對URRm范圍。按照目前天然氣勘探及開采技術(shù)條件，預(yù)計氣藏的探明率在40％~的范圍，即生命周期末的累積探明儲量范圍為(1.048~1.572)×1012m3。類比類似氣藏天然氣采收率約60％，對應(yīng)的可采儲量范圍為(6288~9432)×108m3。另外，由于技術(shù)條件的限制，可采儲量到最終可采儲量URR的轉(zhuǎn)化率約為60％，估算URR的范圍為(3770~5660)×108m3。B然氣產(chǎn)量增長趨勢預(yù)測B概述采用Hubbert和Gauss峰值預(yù)測模型，預(yù)測震旦系氣藏40％~60％探明率下的峰值產(chǎn)量。分別選取探勢。Hubbert模型0.97910.97830.98250.9803Gauss0.98840.98550.99420.9871TSSCIPAXXX39Hubbert模型峰值產(chǎn)量(Qm)?{1+cos?[0.161(t?2036)]}{?{1+cos?[0.167(t?Hubbert模型峰值產(chǎn)量(Qm)?{1+cos?[0.161(t?2036)]}{?{1+cos?[0.167(t?2036)]}3770×108m34240×108m3URR=4716×108m3························································(B.2)0×108m3250200150100500?{1?{1+cos?[0.106(t?2036)]}?{1+cos?[0.134(t?2036)]}Q=Q=?{1+cos?[0.155(t?2036)]}·······································(B.1)產(chǎn)量原始數(shù)據(jù)22721705URR=377022721705URR=5188142URR=566033產(chǎn)量交匯點(diǎn)Q=45速遞減期2速遞減期2040緩慢遞減期205422054202020302040205020602070a結(jié)果280240200160120Hubbert模型峰值產(chǎn)量QmHubbertHubbert模型峰值產(chǎn)量QmHubbert模型參數(shù)bHubbert模型參數(shù)(Hubbert模型參數(shù)(b)0.180.160.140.120.103800400042004400460048005000520054005600最終可采儲量URR(108m3)b測結(jié)果BGauss型2118×e?(t?2036)?(2×12.722)2159×e?(t?2036)?(2×10.672)Q=193×e?(t?2036)2?(2×9.7452)··············································(B.3)2226×e?(t?2036)?(2×9.4882){238×e?(t?2036)2?(2×9.1462)3770×108m34240×108m3URR=4716×108m3························································(B.4){5660×108m3{5660×108m3TSSCIPAXXX3Guass模型峰值產(chǎn)量(Qm)Gauss模型參數(shù)(s)25Guass模型峰值產(chǎn)量(Qm)Gauss模型參數(shù)(s)25020050250200150100500238223822