2023區(qū)域經(jīng)濟盤點之二：重慶38個區(qū)縣2022年經(jīng)濟財政債務(wù)大盤點

發(fā)現(xiàn)價值發(fā)現(xiàn)價值22023區(qū)域經(jīng)濟盤點之二重慶38個區(qū)縣2022年經(jīng)濟財政債務(wù)大盤點債務(wù)率(一般預(yù)算財力口徑)處于全市下游水平，其中江北區(qū)城投債務(wù)合川區(qū)、渝北區(qū)、榮昌區(qū)有所惡化。比超過7成，其中武隆區(qū)、城口縣、潼南區(qū)、巫溪縣、彭水縣增速超25%。有11個區(qū)縣剔除留抵退稅因素后一般公共預(yù)算收入增速仍為區(qū)、石柱縣、秀山縣5個區(qū)縣城投債務(wù)率(一般預(yù)算財力口徑)下降SFCCENoBPM17003556liuyugfcom03555jiangdan@請注意，姜丹并非香港證券及期貨事務(wù)監(jiān)察委員會的注冊持牌人，不可在香港從事受監(jiān)管活動。經(jīng)濟盤點之點惑系列之五十四:中央合投資級公司部分條件23-03-0223-02-2423-02-22曾禹童zengyutong@發(fā)現(xiàn)價值發(fā)現(xiàn)價值 發(fā)現(xiàn)價值發(fā)現(xiàn)價值表索引 6 表4：重慶市各區(qū)縣公募城投債余額及公募城投債平均估值情況(余額加權(quán)).....8表5：重慶市各區(qū)縣私募城投債余額及私募城投債平均估值情況(余額加權(quán)).....9發(fā)現(xiàn)價值發(fā)現(xiàn)價值(一般預(yù)算財力口徑)處于全市下游水平。結(jié)合城投債務(wù)率(一般預(yù)算財力口徑)共預(yù)算收入仍下滑超10個百分點，城投債務(wù)率和政府債務(wù)率上升幅度均超過80個百年財力和債務(wù)情況源：重慶市各區(qū)縣統(tǒng)計局、財政局官網(wǎng)，廣發(fā)證券發(fā)展研究中心下同。P位，其中石柱縣首次超過200億元，剩余2個區(qū)縣均小于200億元。渝北區(qū)、南岸區(qū)、北碚區(qū)增速排名最后三位，在0.5%以下，其中北碚區(qū)增發(fā)現(xiàn)價值發(fā)現(xiàn)價值0.2%。北碚區(qū)、渝北區(qū)、長壽區(qū)2022年增速相較2021年下滑超7個百分點，其余區(qū)縣增速下滑幅度以3-6個百分點為主。表1：重慶市各區(qū)縣經(jīng)濟情況(億元，按2022年GDP降序排列)區(qū)縣2022年GDP2021年GDP2022年GDP增速2021年GDP增速增速變化渝北區(qū)九龍坡區(qū)江北區(qū)渝中區(qū)涪陵區(qū)江津區(qū)永川區(qū)萬州區(qū)沙坪壩區(qū)巴南區(qū)合川區(qū)南岸區(qū)璧山區(qū)長壽區(qū)榮昌區(qū)大足區(qū)北碚區(qū)銅梁區(qū)開州區(qū)梁平區(qū)潼南區(qū)云陽縣綦江區(qū)墊江縣忠縣南川區(qū)奉節(jié)縣豐都縣秀山縣大渡口區(qū)彭水縣黔江區(qū)武隆區(qū)酉陽縣巫山縣石柱縣巫溪縣城口縣2297431403872092292191981781774273466257755955853153150842139539135833928228226623222220966223667838488963974881875866813800718705600549539528507503489409373375341310270271262212209612.7%0.3%2.7%3.7%3.7%8.5%-8.2%9.2%-6.5%8.5%-4.8%%6.1%-4.2%2.6%8.7%-6.1%33.2%3.5%8.4%-5.2%9.4%-5.9%3.5%8.4%-4.9%%7.5%-5.6%2.0%8.3%-6.3%2.6%2.6%0.1%0.2%2.4%6.2%-6.1%3.3.6%2.2.6%10.4%-6.8%9.7%-7.1%2.7%9.4%-6.7%3.3%10.3%-7.0%-0.9%8.9%-9.8%3.0%8.3%-5.3%4.4%4.2%10.2%-5.8%10.1%-5.9%3.0%9.5%-6.5%4.7%9.6%-4.9%3.0%3.2%-0.2%9.3%-5.0%4.3%4.1%3.4%3.4%10.0%-5.9%8.7%-5.3%4.5%4.5%4.0%3.5%8.4%-3.9%7.5%-3.5%8.0%-4.5%3.5%4.7%3.5%4.7%3.2%3.2%22.5% 2.3%8.8%-4.1%7.9%-4.4%7.8%-4.6%7.8%-5.3%6.0%-3.7%4.1%9.4%-5.3%40%2.2.7%339%7.8%-3.8%6.7%-4.0%6.6%-2.7%：重慶市各區(qū)縣統(tǒng)計局官網(wǎng)，廣發(fā)證券發(fā)展研究中心二、2022年超半數(shù)區(qū)縣一般公共預(yù)算收入實現(xiàn)增長5億元，(含)，其中江津區(qū)排名提升幅度較大，從2021年5名提升至2022年的第2名，主要由于非稅收入大幅增長74%。發(fā)現(xiàn)價值發(fā)現(xiàn)價值多數(shù)區(qū)縣財政收入質(zhì)量有所惡化，體現(xiàn)為稅收占比及財政自給率下降。稅收占降幅度排前二，超過25個百分點，其中巫山縣稅收收入減少近一半，城口縣非稅收收入同比增長118.6%。財政自給率方面，超6成區(qū)縣下降，其中渝北區(qū)和江北區(qū)降預(yù)算收入大幅增長，財政點。表2：重慶市各區(qū)縣財政情況(億元，按2022年一般公共預(yù)算收入降序排列)區(qū)區(qū)縣22一般公共預(yù)算收入21一般公共預(yù)算收入22一般公共預(yù)算收入剔除留底退稅增速22一般公共預(yù)算收入自然增速21一般公共預(yù)算收入增速增速變化22稅收收入21稅收22稅收21稅收稅收占比22財政自收入占比占比變化給率21財政自給率財政自給率變化22政府性基金收入21政府性基金收入萬州萬州區(qū)江津區(qū)江北區(qū)涪陵區(qū)渝北區(qū)南岸區(qū)九龍坡區(qū)合川區(qū)長壽區(qū)璧山區(qū)大足區(qū)永川區(qū)渝中區(qū)巴南區(qū)沙坪壩區(qū)銅梁區(qū)開州區(qū)梁平區(qū)潼南區(qū)榮昌區(qū)黔江區(qū)北碚區(qū)豐都縣南川區(qū)忠縣綦江區(qū)墊江縣武隆區(qū)大渡口區(qū)云陽縣秀山縣奉節(jié)縣彭水縣酉陽縣石柱縣巫山縣巫溪縣城口縣6.0%11.8%5%2.6%0.7%4.6%-16.3%-0.9%-6.5%-2.6%1.2%-9.8%-17.9%2.5%4.7%3.7%10.8%33.4%-13.7%1.2%1%9.2%7.0%14.2%4.2%16.5%39.2%-7.9%4.5%24.8%15.2%25.3%4.6%.1%26.8%37.2%-0.4%10.5%-5.9%-7.9%-25.3%2.4%-73.7%-29.8%-11.6%-11.2%-7.0%-12.8%6.3%-10.7%-15.0%-21.4%18.4%-19.2%0.3%-9.8%5.4%4.0%8.7%1.3%8.6%20.9%2.2%-2.7%-4.9%10.2%29.0%-59.5%16.5%-2.9%25.8%32.5%6.4%1.3%4.4%10.5%10.2%7%4.5%57.4%28.9%8.6%8.2%5.3%1%-3.8%15.4%18.7%32.2%15.0%5.5%0.9%0.7%3.8%3.0%5.5%2.9%7.9%18.3%7.2%29.7%5.0%-3.7%1%5.6%5.0%1.0%4.7%9.0%-4.3%5%-20.1%-0.3%2.8%-19.8%-6.7%-17.9%-6.5%-3.9%-12.2%-21.3%0.4%0.5%2.0%8.7%28.7%-16.0%5%-11.5%5.6%-6.4%11.3%0.7%12.5%28.5%-9.2%0.3%18.8%3.9%23.3%0.9%19.4%-13.0%18.9%34.4%-5.5%-18.9%2.0%-0.3%-11.9%-12.0%0.7%9%6%-16.8%-4.9%7%8%-21.6%-23.0%-7.2%-10.6%-5.2%-21.6%-2.9%-9.4%-24.1%-13.8%-23.1%1%-11.8%-17.8%-6.2%-12.4%-10.3%-20.6%-12.4%0.6%-10.2%-25.4%-25.9%6%3.3%-11.3%-0.8%-11.8%-6.4%-7.3%-8.8%-6.2%-5.5%-2.5%-4.5%-3.7%-2.7%0.8%-4.5%0.2%2.4%-7.7%-6.5%-6.8%0.3%7%-0.3%9.3%-8.9%-2.5%0.6%3.5%7%-0.5%-4.0%3.5%59%69%85%80%91%82%69%37%50%62%38%76%77%76%78%41%52%50%50%46%70%82%46%62%70%52%67%60%87%62%75%60%62%50%72%60%59%60%49%55%79%51%63%69%66%67%61%70%45%44%57%52%44%54%34%41%38%40%47%46%38%38%32%30%30%34%57%24%27%22%23%25%24%23%14%15%47%58%68%50%52%62%59%58%55%64%43%40%53%50%44%49%34%43%40%32%40%39%39%36%32%30%32%43%48%22%28%25%24%24%23%19%18%17%53%50%87%80%79%70%70%35%48%46%33%74%75%55%55%34%41%45%28%43%61%58%32%52%47%47%55%42%81%50%65%40%50%50%62%34%44%34%71.567.667.260.059.056.843.643.042.140.840.440.340.230.630.130.026.825.925.325.222.722.618.418.117.016.916.815.112.971.462.070.260.973.957.054.666.354.053.146.043.846.451.440.240.030.027.723.331.926.328.623.924.320.321.118.815.820.318.114.316.313.615.010.842.042.959.649.067.446.537.724.326.833.217.333.135.815.513.911.614.618.423.510.915.214.311.012.59.517.77.04.42.838.134.058.448.146.839.539.118.524.219.912.613.68.511.515.714.78.011.910.710.011.68.614.99.011.08.0-74.218.620.529.536.310.70.616.625.911.320.023.515.163.475.20.20.054.949.898.951.167.3-13.917.920.0-0.10.00.043.3-0.074.020.522.5-14.816.58.812.04.9-65.946.358.6-24.922.36.1--7.921.6-0.4-：重慶市各區(qū)縣統(tǒng)計局、財政局官網(wǎng)，廣發(fā)證券發(fā)展研究中心發(fā)現(xiàn)價值發(fā)現(xiàn)價值三、2022年潼南區(qū)和彭水縣城投債務(wù)率下降超150個百分點債務(wù)率(城投有息債務(wù)/一般公共預(yù)算收入)和政府債務(wù)率(地方政府債務(wù)余額/一般公共預(yù)算收入)來衡量，僅供投資者參考。2022年渝中區(qū)和江北區(qū)城投債務(wù)率(一般預(yù)算財力口徑)低于300%，并且政府過1500%，并且這些區(qū)022年政府債務(wù)率(一般預(yù)算財力口徑)均超過500%。城投債務(wù)率(一般預(yù)算財力口徑)下降超50個百分點，其中潼南區(qū)和彭水縣降幅更所下降，債務(wù)負(fù)擔(dān)減輕，主要得益于一般公共預(yù)算收入增速大于城投有息債務(wù)及地政府債務(wù)余額增速。發(fā)現(xiàn)價值發(fā)現(xiàn)價值412%482%989%655%表3：重慶市各區(qū)縣債務(wù)情況(億元，按2022年城投債務(wù)率降序排序)412%482%989%655%2121發(fā)債城投有息債務(wù)22Q3發(fā)債城投有息債務(wù)22地方政府債務(wù)余額21地方政府債務(wù)余額22地方政府債務(wù)增速發(fā)債城投有息債務(wù)增速21政府債務(wù)率21城投債務(wù)率22政府債務(wù)率22城投債務(wù)率城投債務(wù)率變化政府債務(wù)率變化南川區(qū)534.6497.27.5%116.0100.415.6%2355%2050%304.9%511%414%97%沙坪壩區(qū)沙坪壩區(qū)875.9821.06.7%274.8258.66.3%2174%2044%129.1%682%644%38%巴南區(qū)687.0532.629.0%204.0175.416.3%1701%1037%663.4%505%341%163%綦江區(qū)綦江區(qū)331.0319.33.6%185.0161.414.6%1558%1513%44.9%871%765%106%涪陵區(qū)874.3865.31.1%233.5211.110.6%1457%1420%37.4%389%346%43%長壽區(qū)長壽區(qū)676.6619.79.2%167.0141.118.3%1343%1147%195.5%331%261%70%合川區(qū)695.3649.77.0%178.0167.86.1%1307%980%326.9%335%253%82%北碚區(qū)北碚區(qū)310.5306.71.2%149.0139.07.2%1227%1073%154.1%589%486%103%永川區(qū)506.7493.22.7%171.7154.011.5%1203%1126%77.4%408%352%56%九龍坡區(qū)九龍坡區(qū)672.6579.116.2%271.0235.615.0%1199%1061%138.4%483%432%52%大渡口區(qū)212.4197.47.6%103.099.73.3%1154%974%180.2%560%492%68%江津區(qū)奉節(jié)縣大足區(qū)黔江區(qū)萬州區(qū)開州區(qū)772.80.4436.9232.1639.9250.5725.33.6400.8243.4582.9225.86.5%3.7%9.0%-4.6%9.8%10.9%246.08.03.08.0289.05.0223.099.17.09.3233.95.910.3%9.0%19.0%14.4%23.6%1143%1169%-26.3%364%360%4% 1127%1129%-1.8%639%609%30%16%871%144.8%379%298%81%96%926%-29.4%571%492%79%95%816%79.1%404%327%77%19%753%66.1%507%453%54%渝北區(qū)476.9426.011.9%208.37.711.0% 8 808%577%231.7%231.7%353%254%99%榮昌區(qū)%8.08.027.8%88%608%180.2%515%339%176%彭水縣3.91.5%3.090.624.7%737%892%673%665%7%潼南區(qū)南岸區(qū)豐都縣墊江縣銅梁區(qū)云陽縣武隆區(qū)9.439.383.493.21.939.974.485.83.9%8.0%7.5%10.8%12.0%8.7%1.0254.06.05.01.09.075.095.17.68.365.116.8%11.6%13.6%24.3%19.9%51.3%15.2%665%653%823%650%3.1%370%447%408%399%-38%48%587%522%574%546%-241%500%592%465%536%35%56%496%450%.46.1%.351%294%57%461%334%459%543%-83.4%369%412%-43%秀山縣77.673.85.0%1.087.826.4%456%516%-59.7%653%613%40%璧山區(qū)5.18.03.09.2425%354%70.5%443%319%124%梁平區(qū)%1.07.350.0%415%420%-5.4%535%388%147%忠縣93.376.022.8%2.097.5413%374%38.4%540%480%60%酉陽縣55.144.822.9%9.04.433.2%365%299%65.3%921%697%223%石柱縣46.746.896.076.026.3%362%433%-70.7%744%704%40%渝中區(qū)0.297.912.6%0.08.29.2%270%211%59.3%343%276%67%城口縣7.07.198.085.015.3%%%-40.8%581%842%江北區(qū)23.470.5%216.07.915.0%35%20%321%268%54%巫山縣0.00.0-6.087.50%0%0.0%039%747%292%巫溪縣0.00.0-78.064.720.6%0%0%0.0%886%874%13%：重慶市各區(qū)縣統(tǒng)計局、財政局官網(wǎng)，廣發(fā)證券發(fā)展研究中心注：城投債務(wù)率=城投有息債務(wù)/一般公共預(yù)算收入，政府債務(wù)率=地方政府債務(wù)余額/一般公共預(yù)算收入。由于城投2022年年報還未披四、各區(qū)縣城投債平均估值中位數(shù)為4.9%城投公募債平均估值方面，各區(qū)縣中位數(shù)為4.9%。涪陵區(qū)、巴南區(qū)、南岸區(qū)、，。而潼南區(qū)、酉陽縣、南川區(qū)、大足區(qū)公募債平均估值偏高，在7.5%以上，這般預(yù)算財力口徑)較高，2022年超1000%。表4：重慶市各區(qū)縣公募城投債余額及公募城投債平均估值情況(余額加權(quán))市公募債余額(億元)公募債公募債值(%)公募債平均(年)分主體評級(%)分剩余期限(%)AAAA1-3年3年以上-44.1%--發(fā)現(xiàn)價值發(fā)現(xiàn)價值南川區(qū)44.733.5%7.64.0-7.6-7.87.5-綦江區(qū)45.629.8%7.42.0-7.46.58.98.1.9%.8--豐都縣14.849.7%7.24.3-7.2--7.2.8%---開州區(qū)24.928.8%6.71.0-6.76.38.1-銅梁區(qū)28.129.3%5.41.2-5.45.25.8--沙坪壩區(qū)140.533.6%4.91.54.9-4.15.65.88.6合川區(qū)117.530.3%4.61.34.6-4.04.9-區(qū).6%.8江北區(qū)4.033.3%4.32.44.3--4.3-區(qū)2.4渝中區(qū)18.456.8%4.22.74.2--4.24.1.7%1.4.0江津區(qū)169.645.2%4.01.54.04.53.14.6-.2.4巴南區(qū)129.641.1%3.81.33.86.73.24.2--渝北區(qū)32.723.2%3.51.43.5-3.13.84.4值個券。從私募債平均估值來看，僅江北區(qū)在4.0%以下，其經(jīng)濟財政實力較強的同時，債務(wù)負(fù)擔(dān)較輕，2022年城投債務(wù)率僅35%，因而較受市場青睞。巴南區(qū)、璧山區(qū)、涪陵區(qū)、江津區(qū)、渝北區(qū)也相對較低，在4-4.5%。而酉陽縣、黔江區(qū)、綦江區(qū)、潼南區(qū)、大足區(qū)平均估值偏高，均在8%以上，主要與其經(jīng)濟財政實力較弱有關(guān)。表5：重慶市各區(qū)縣私募城投債余額及私募城投債平均估值情況(余額加權(quán))市募債余額(億元)債債值(%)募債平均(年)分主體評級(%)分剩余期限(%)AAAA3年以上酉陽縣18.055.9%8.72.3-8.78.2-9.2區(qū)-綦江區(qū)107.370.2%8.20.9-8.27.39.4--大足區(qū)79.436.5%8.10.7-8.17.98.4--南川區(qū)88.966.5%7.61.4-7.66.58.67.7發(fā)現(xiàn)價值發(fā)現(xiàn)價值--長壽區(qū)216.966.9%7.31.37.27.86.87.6-縣-忠縣26.347.5%7.01.9-7.0-7.0--云陽縣19.665.2%6.51.0-6.55.87.4--梁平區(qū)14.744.7%6.41.0-6.46.17.7--萬州區(qū)202.969.4%6.01.36.8