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《項目管理》ProjectManagement******University***ProjectManagement:TheManagerialprocessSession#21項目選擇與組織戰(zhàn)略TheProjectSelection&Organizationstrategy2Thethoughtforsuccess成功思維Thesuccessfulmanlengthenshisstridewhenhediscoversthatsignposthasdeceivedhim;thefailurelooksforaplacetositdown.--------J.R.Rogers

成功的人發(fā)現(xiàn)受到路標(biāo)愚弄時,仍邁步而行,但失敗者卻找個地方先坐下來再說。3AligningProjectswithorganizationStrategy項目與組織戰(zhàn)略相一致Identificationofproject’spriorityandlinkagewiththestrategicplan

項目優(yōu)先權(quán)的識別及與戰(zhàn)略規(guī)劃的聯(lián)系Valuecontributiontotheorganization’sstrategicplan對組織戰(zhàn)略規(guī)劃的價值貢獻(xiàn)。ProjectmanagersneedtounderstandtheStrategicmanagementProcess.

項目經(jīng)理需要了解戰(zhàn)略管理過程4CommentsfromProjectmanagersWheredidthisprojectcomefrom?ShouldIstopworkingonthisprojectandstartonthenewone?Whyarewedoingthisproject?Howcanalltheseprojectsbefirstpriority?Wheredotheygettheresourcestodothisproject?5AligningProjectwithOrganizationStrategy項目與組織戰(zhàn)略相一致Strategyisimplementedthroughprojects.Everyprojectshouldhaveaclearlinktoorganizationstrategy

戰(zhàn)略是通過項目來實(shí)現(xiàn)的,每一項目都應(yīng)該與組織戰(zhàn)略有清晰的聯(lián)系。

Therearetoomanyorganizationsinwhichmanymanagerscannotidentifyaproject’sandlinkitwiththestrategicplan

太多的組織中,許多經(jīng)理們不能夠識別項目并將之與組織戰(zhàn)略計劃聯(lián)系起來。6WhatisStrategicmanagement?Strategicmanagementistheprocessofassessing”whatweare”anddecidingandimplementing”whatweintendtobeandhowwearegoingtogetthere.”Strategydescribeshowanorganizationintendstocompetewiththeresourcesavailableintheexistingandperceivedfutureenvironment.7Twomajordimensionsofstrategicmanagement

Respondingtochangesintheexternalenvironment.Allocatingscarceresourcesofthefirmtoimproveitscompetitiveposition.Constantscanningoftheexternalenvironmentforchangesinamajorrequirementforsurvivalinadynamiccompetitiveenvironment.8Strategicmanagement‘sfocusItprovidesthethemeandfocusofthefuturedirectionoftheorganization.Itsupportsconsistencyofactionateveryleveloftheorganization.Itencouragesintegrationbecauseeffortandresourcesarecommittedtocommongoalsandstrategies.Itisacontinuous,iterativeprocessaimedatdevelopinganintegratedandcoordinatedlong-termplanofaction.9TheStrategicManagementProcess

戰(zhàn)略管理過程

Strategycandecidethesurvivalofanorganization.戰(zhàn)略能夠決定組織的生存Butwhattheactioncourseitshouldpursuecandecidethesuccessorfailureofanorganization但它要采取的行動路線卻能決定組織的成敗。Strategicmanagementrequiresstronglinksamongmission,goals,objectives,strategy,andimplementation,

戰(zhàn)略管理要求組織使命、目標(biāo)、目的,戰(zhàn)略以及執(zhí)行強(qiáng)緊密聯(lián)系。10TheStrategicManagementProcess戰(zhàn)略管理過程Reviewanddefinetheorganizationalmission.評論和界定組織使使命SetLong-rangegoalsandobjectives.設(shè)立長期目標(biāo)和目目的。Analyzeandformulatestrategiestoreachobjectives分析并闡明戰(zhàn)略以以期達(dá)到目標(biāo)Implementstrategiesthroughprojects.通過項目來執(zhí)行戰(zhàn)戰(zhàn)略11StrategicManagementProcess戰(zhàn)略管理過程2-112TheStrategicManagementProcess戰(zhàn)略管理過程Everyoneintheorganizationshouldbekeenlyawareoftheorganization’smission組織內(nèi)每個人應(yīng)當(dāng)當(dāng)敏銳地知道組織織使命Themissionstatementcommunicatesandidentifiesthepurposeoftheorganizationtoallstakeholders.使命說明是對所所有的項目干系系人傳達(dá)并識別別組織的目的。。13TheStrategicManagementProcess戰(zhàn)略管理過程Missionstatementscanbeusedforevaluatingorganizationperformance使命說明可以用用來評價組織績績效Statementsfrequentlyincludeorganizationalphilosophy,keytechnologies,publicimage,andcontributiontosociety.該說明常常包括括組織哲學(xué),關(guān)關(guān)鍵技術(shù)、公眾眾形象,以及對對社會的貢獻(xiàn)等等Missionstatementschangeinfrequently,but,ithastoberevisedwhenthenatureofthebusinesschangesorshifts使命說明很少變變化。但業(yè)務(wù)性性質(zhì)改變或轉(zhuǎn)換換時,這就需要要修改使命說明明了。Thestatementcan’tbeanybody’’smissionstatement,使命說明不能是是任何人的使命命說明14Long-RangeGoalsandObjectives長程目標(biāo)和目的的Organizationalobjectivessettargetsforalllevelsoftheorganization組織目標(biāo)為組織織各級層面設(shè)定定了目標(biāo)Objectivesanswerindetailwhereafirmisheadedandwhenitisgoingtogetthere.目標(biāo)詳細(xì)回答了了公司的去向問問題以及何時達(dá)達(dá)到目的地。Objectivesfortheorganizationcovermarkets,products,innovation,productivity,quality,finance,profitability,employees,andconsumers組織目標(biāo)涵蓋了了市場、產(chǎn)品、、創(chuàng)新、生產(chǎn)力力、質(zhì)量、財務(wù)務(wù)、收益性、員員工以及消費(fèi)者者Insummary,organizationalobjectivesdriveyourprojects.總之,組織目標(biāo)標(biāo)驅(qū)動項目.15AnalyzeandFormulateStrategiestoReachObjectives.分析并闡明能達(dá)達(dá)成目標(biāo)的戰(zhàn)略略Formulatingstrategyanswersthequestionofwhatneedstobedonetoreachobjectives.戰(zhàn)略闡明回答了了達(dá)到目標(biāo)需要要做什么的問題題。Strategyformulationincludesdeterminingandevaluatingalternativesthatsupporttheorganization’sobjectivesandselectingthebestalternative.戰(zhàn)略闡明明包括確確定和評評估能支支持組織織目標(biāo)的的可選擇擇方案并并選定最最佳方案案。16AnalyzeandFormulateStrategiestoReachObjectives.分析并闡闡明能達(dá)達(dá)成目標(biāo)標(biāo)的戰(zhàn)略略Strategyformulationendswithcascadingobjectivesortasksassignedtolowerdivisions,departmentsorindividuals戰(zhàn)略闡明明是以組組織目標(biāo)標(biāo)或任務(wù)務(wù)分配給給次層部部門或個個人而結(jié)結(jié)束的20%management’seffortonstrategyformulation,80%ondetermininghowstrategywillbeimplemented.戰(zhàn)略闡明明消耗20%的管理努努力,決決定如何何執(zhí)行戰(zhàn)戰(zhàn)略卻要要消耗80%。17ImplementStrategiesthroughProjects通過項目目來實(shí)現(xiàn)現(xiàn)戰(zhàn)略Implementationanswersthequestionofhowstrategieswillberealized,givenavailableresources執(zhí)行回答答了在給給定可供供資源的的條件下下戰(zhàn)略如如何實(shí)現(xiàn)現(xiàn)Withoutimplementation,successisimpossible.沒有執(zhí)行行,成功功是不可可能的18TheNeedforanEffectiveProjectPortfolioManagementSystem需要一個個有效的的項目組組合管理理系統(tǒng)AbsenceofaPrioritySystemLinkedtostrategyCreatesProblems缺少與戰(zhàn)戰(zhàn)略相聯(lián)聯(lián)系的項項目優(yōu)先先權(quán)系統(tǒng)統(tǒng)會產(chǎn)生生問題Conflictsfrequentlyoccuramongfunctionalmanagersandcauselackoftrust.職能經(jīng)理理間常發(fā)發(fā)生沖突突而導(dǎo)致致缺乏信信任。Frequentmeetingsarecalledtoestablishorrenegotiatepriorities.常召開會會議以建建立或重重新商談?wù)勴椖績?yōu)優(yōu)先權(quán)問問題19TheNeedforanEffectiveProjectPortfolioManagementSystem需要一個個有效的的項目組組合管理理系統(tǒng)(續(xù))Peoplefrequentlyshiftfromoneprojecttoanother,Employeesareconfusedaboutwhichprojectsareimportant人們頻繁繁調(diào)動不不同項目目,員工工對那些些項目是是重要的的常感到到困惑。。Peopleareworkingonmultipleprojectsandfeelinefficient,人們同時時干多個個項目而而感到效效率低下下。Resourcesarenotadequate資源不充充足20TheNeedforanEffectiveProjectPortfolioManagementSystem需要一個個有效的的項目組組合管理理系統(tǒng)OrganizationPoliticsProjectselectionmaybebasednotsomuchonfactsandsoundreasoning,butratheronthepersuasivenessandpowerofpeopleadvocatingprojects.項目選擇擇不是基基于大量量的事實(shí)實(shí)和合理理的論證證,而是是基于人人們對于于項目主主張的說說服力和和權(quán)利。。Savvyprojectmanagersrecognizetheimportanceofhaving““friendsinhighercourts”whocanadvocatefortheircaseandprotecttheirinterests.有悟性的的項目經(jīng)經(jīng)理會意意識到““朝里有有人好做做官”的的重要性性,這樣樣“朝里里的人””會幫助助項目經(jīng)經(jīng)理們鼓鼓吹他們們的項目目并保護(hù)護(hù)他們的的利益。。21Strategy,Objectives,andProjectLinkages戰(zhàn)略、目目標(biāo)以及及項目聯(lián)聯(lián)系2-222PortfolioofProjectsByType項目類型型組合2-423ClassificationofProject]Compliance(mustdo)projectComplianceprojectsaretypicallythoseneededtomeetregulatoryconditionsrequiredtooperateinaregion;hence,theyarecalled““mustdo””projects.Emergencyprojects,suchasrebuildingasoybeanfactorydestroyedbyfire,meetthemustdocriterion.Complianceandemergencyprojectsusuallyhavepenaltiesiftheyarenotimplemented.24OperationalprojectsOperationalprojectsarethosethatareneededtosupportcurrentoperations.Theseprojectsaredesignedtoimproveefficiencyofdeliverysystems,reduceproductscosts,andimproveperformance.TQMprojectsareexamplesofoperationalprojects.25StrategicprojectsStrategicprojectsarethosethatdirectlysupporttheorganizationlongrunmission.Theyfrequentlyaredirectedtowardincreasingrevenueormarketshare.Examplesofstrategicprojectsarenewproducts,researchanddevelopment.Anyonegeneratingaprojectproposalshouldclassifytheirproposalbytype,sotheappropriatecriteriacanbeusedtoevaluatetheirproposal.26MajorProjectProposal主項目建議書書2-527RiskAnalysis風(fēng)險分析2-628ProjectScreeningProcess項目篩選過程程2-729ProjectScreeningMatrix項目篩選矩陣陣2-830ProjectPortfolioMatrix項目組合矩陣陣(DavidandJimMatheson)2-1031ThegridhasfourquadrantsBread-and––butterprojectstypicallyinvolveevolutionaryimprovementstocurrentproductsandservices.Examplesincludesoftwareupgradesandmanufacturingcostreductionefforts.Pearlsrepresentrevolutionarycommercialadvancesusingproventechnicaladvances.Examplesincludenext-generationintegratedcircuitchipandsubsurfaceimagingtolocateoilandgas.32ThegridhasfourquadrantsOystersinvolvetechnologicalbreakthroughswithhighcommercialpayoffs.ExamplesincludeembryonicDNAtreatmentsandnewkindsofmetalalloys.Whiteelephantsareprojectsthatatonetimeshowedpromisebutarenolongerviable.Examplesincludeproductsforasaturatedmarketorapotentenergysourcewithtoxicsideeffects.33R&DorganizationsOrganizationsoftenhavetoomanywhiteelephantsandtoofewpearlsandoysters.Tomaintainstrategicadvantagetheyrecommendthatorganizationcapitalizeonpeals,eliminateorrepositionwhiteelephantsandbalanceresourcesdevotedtobread-and-butterandoysterprojectstoachievealignmentwithoverallstrategy.34NotenoughtimeTooriskyPoliticallyunacceptableDependenceinfeasiblePastChoiceZoneRemember:YoudonotknowallthealternativesYoudon’thavethetimetoconsiderallthealternatives,anywayThinkrisk,dependence,thepast&powerAConceptualFrameworkforProjectChoiceAConceptualFramework概念框架WhichProjectdoIChoose?該選哪一個個項目呢??35CharacteristicsofBenefits利益特征ResourceQualityNeeded所需資源質(zhì)質(zhì)量ImprovedProfitability(cashflow)提高利潤((現(xiàn)金流))CustomerSatisfaction客戶滿意NewMarketPenetration新市場滲透透NewTechnologyDevelopment新技術(shù)開發(fā)發(fā)TechnologyTransfer技術(shù)轉(zhuǎn)讓EnhancedReputation提高知名度度WorkforceStability勞動力穩(wěn)定定ReductionofUnusedCapacity減少未用生生產(chǎn)量SkillsImprovement技能提高BusinessKnowledge(market)商業(yè)知識((市場)Manpower(humanresource)人力(人力力資源)Facilities(existingcondition)設(shè)施(現(xiàn)有條件件)EquipmentandMachinery設(shè)備及機(jī)械SpecializedExpertise(specialskill)特殊專有技術(shù)((特殊技能)Patents/Rights/Licenses專利/授權(quán)/許可ProjectManagementSkills項目管理技能Reputation信譽(yù)Money(capitalraising)資金(融資)StrategicConsiderations策略考慮36StrategicAssessment策略評估StrategicIssues策略問題Strengths&Weaknesses強(qiáng)勢和弱勢Opportunities&Threats機(jī)會和威脅低Low中Medium高HighStrong強(qiáng)Medium中Low低ResourceQuality資源質(zhì)量項目利益ProjectBenefitsProjectStrategicAssessment項目策略評估37LowMediumHighStrongMediumLowResourceQualityneededProjectBenefitsLowHighMediumProjectPriority項目優(yōu)先StrategicImportance戰(zhàn)略重要性38Projectselectionistheprocessofevaluatingindividualprojectsorgroupsofprojects,andthenchoosingtoimplementsomesetofthemsothattheobjectivesoftheparentorganizationwillbeachieved項目選擇是對單單個或一組項目目進(jìn)行評估并選選擇實(shí)施對象從從而實(shí)現(xiàn)母公司司目標(biāo)的過程。。Managersoftenusedecision-aidingmodelstoextracttherelevantissuesofaproblemfromthedetailsinwhichtheproblemisembedded經(jīng)理們經(jīng)常要用用到?jīng)Q策輔助模模型來從產(chǎn)生問問題的眾多細(xì)節(jié)節(jié)中提煉出相關(guān)關(guān)要點(diǎn)。Modelsrepresenttheproblem’sstructureandcanbeusefulinselectingandevaluatingprojectsProjectSelectionProcess項目選擇過程392BasicTypesofModels模型的基本類型型Nonnumeric非數(shù)學(xué)模型Numeric數(shù)學(xué)模型TwoCriticalFacts:Modelsdonotmakedecisions-Peopledo!模型是不能做決決策的,而一定定是人。Manager,notthemodel,bearsresponsibilityforthedecision.Allmodels,howeversophisticated,areonlypartialrepresentationsoftherealitytheyaremeanttoreflect,nomodelcanyieldanoptimaldecisionexceptwithinitsown,possiblyinadequate,framework.ProjectSelectionModels項目選擇模型40SacredCow–圣牛,項目由由組織中高層權(quán)權(quán)威人士最先提提議,一般從簡簡單的評論開始始的。由評論導(dǎo)導(dǎo)致項目產(chǎn)生,,如新產(chǎn)品初步步設(shè)想,新市場場的開發(fā)等。OperatingNecessity–經(jīng)營需要,比如如。非典襲來,,北京修建小湯湯山醫(yī)院。就不不需要過多的正正式評估。CompetitiveNecessity–競爭需要,這這也不需要使使用那些縝密的的數(shù)學(xué)分析。ProductLineExtension-拓展產(chǎn)品系列,,要看項目是否否在一定程度上上適合現(xiàn)有產(chǎn)品品品種、填補(bǔ)品品種空白、加強(qiáng)強(qiáng)薄弱環(huán)節(jié)還是是在新的領(lǐng)域拓拓展產(chǎn)品品種。。ComparativeBenefitModel-severalprojectsareconsideredandtheonewiththemostbenefittothefirmisselected比較利益模型,,從眾多備選選項目中選擇那那些能使公司收收益最大的項目目,NonnumericProjectSelectionModels非數(shù)學(xué)項目選擇擇模型41Paybackperiod-initialfixedinvestment/estimatedannualcashinflowsfromtheproject(回收期)最初固固定投資/年現(xiàn)金流。(沒沒有考慮回收期期之后的現(xiàn)金流流入,也沒有考考慮風(fēng)險因素))AverageRateofReturn-averageannual%profit/averageinvestment(平均回報報率)是是平均年年利潤與與項目最最初投資資或平均均投資的的比率。。以上上兩種方方法都未未考慮貨貨幣的時時間價值值。DiscountedCashFlow-PresentValueMethod(凈現(xiàn)值法法,NPV,netpresentvalue)(AlsocalledNPVmethod,netpresentvaluemethod)InternalRateofReturn-Findsrateofreturnthatequatespresentvalueofinflowsandoutflows(內(nèi)部收益益率法))ProfitabilityIndex-NPVofallfutureexpectedcashflows/initialcashinvestment(利潤率指指數(shù))ifthisratioisgreaterthan1.0,theprojectmaybeaccepted.如果比值值大于1,項目可可以接受受。NumericProjectSelectionModels數(shù)學(xué)項目目選擇模模型((利潤/盈利能力力)42Unweighted0-1FactorModel非加權(quán)0-1因素模型型UnweightedFactorScoringModel非加權(quán)評評分模型型WeightedFactorScoringModel加權(quán)因素素評分模模型ConstrainedWeightedFactorScoringModel附帶約束束條件的的加權(quán)因因素評分分模型GoalProgrammingwithMultipleObjectivesScoringNumericSelectionModels評分?jǐn)?shù)學(xué)學(xué)選擇模模型Examplesofvaluationmodelsthatusemultiplecriteriatoevaluateaprojectarelistedbelow.Thesearesometimesusedtoovercomesomeofthedisadvantagesofprofitabilitymodels,particularlytheirfocusonasingledecisioncriteria.克服盈利利能力模模型的一一些缺陷陷,尤其是那那些只考考慮了單單一決策策標(biāo)準(zhǔn)的的模型。。43Realism-realityofmanager’sdecision實(shí)用性Capability-abletosimulatedifferentscenariosandoptimizethedecision功能性,,能夠夠模擬項項目內(nèi)部部和外部部的各種種情況,,并能使使決策最最優(yōu)化。。Flexibility-providevalidresultswithintherangeofconditions靈活性,模型應(yīng)該該具有易于調(diào)整或或自我調(diào)節(jié)能力,,以適用企業(yè)環(huán)境境的變化。EaseofUse-reasonablyconvenient,easyexecution,andeasilyunderstood易用性,易于使用用和理解,并易于于獲得。Cost-Datagatheringandmodelingcostsshouldbelowre

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