埃森哲：美國頻譜分配報(bào)告

SpectrumAllocation

intheUnitedStates

Ananalysisofthecurrentstateofradiospectrumallocationacrosskeystakeholders,theincreasingneedforlicensedspectrum,andpotentialpathsforward

CommissionedbyCTIA

ExecutiveSummary

7x

Morespectrumthan

iscurrentlyavailable

tocommercial

wireless***

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Thisstudyexploresthecurrentstateofradiospectrum(spectrum)allocationintheUSandhowadditionallicensedspectrumwillenablewirelessproviderstocontinueexpanding5Gconnectivityandunlock5G-enabledinnovation.

5Gbringsnewpromisesofgreatercapacity,lowerlatencyandfasterspeeds.With90%ofallmobilesubscriptionsinNorthAmericaforecastedtobeusing5Gnetworksby2027,alongsidetheexpectedgrowthinindustrial5Gconnections,1thecommercialwirelessindustrywillneedadditionalspectrumtobolsternetworksandensure5Gconnectivityreachesitsfullpotential.

InassessingthecurrentstateofspectrumallocationintheUS,itbecomesclearthatseveralimbalancescouldhindertheabilityofwirelessnetworkstokeepupwithprojectedgrowthandincreaseddemand.Inthelowermid-band,definedforthepurposesofthisstudyastherangeofradiofrequenciesbetween3to8.4GHz*,thecommercialwirelessindustrycurrentlyhasaccesstoonly5%**ofspectrum.Bycomparison,unlicensedspectrumusershaveaccesstoover7x***thatamount(~36%),andgovernmentstakeholdershaveaccesstoover12x***theamountofspectrum(~61%).Thisrelativeimbalanceisparticularlycriticalgiventhatthelowermid-bandisessentialforsupportingthetypeandamountofnewdatatrafficassociatedwith5Gservicesduetoitsabilitytosatisfybothcoverageandcapacityrequirements.

*Whilethereisnosetrulefordividingbetweenlow-,mid-,andhigh-bandspectrum,wehavechosendividinglinesthatbestreflectrecentallocationdecisionsmadebypolicymakerswithknowledgeofforthcoming5Gservicedeployments.Tofurtherexpandononesuchdelineationwemade:whileweselected3GHzasthedividinglinebetweenlow-andthelowermid-band,the2.5GHzband-firstallocatedabouttwodecadesagosharesmanyofthesamecharacteristicsoftheidentifiedlowermid-bandspectrum(e.g.,largebandwidth,useoftimedivisionduplexing,andpropagationability).

LowerMid-BandSpectrumDistribution(mid-2022availability)

12x

Morespectrumthanis

currentlyavailableto

commercialwireless***

Unlicensed

Spectrum(1910MHz)

CommercialWirelessSpectrum

Government

(270MHz)**

Spectrum

(3300MHz)

Expectedtobeavailable

endof2023

**Ofthe450MHzallocatedtocommercialwirelessuse,270MHzarecurrentlyavailable,andanadditional180MHzareassumedtobemadeavailablebytheendof2023pendingclearingofthesecondtrancheofC-Band.Forthepurposesoftheanalysiscontainedinthisreport,CommercialWirelessSpectrumreferstoflexibleand/orcellularpointtomultipointlicenses.

***Withanadditional180MHzofspectrummadeavailabletocommercialwireless,unlicensedandgovernmentuserswillhave4xand7xmorespectrumthancommercialwireless,respectively.

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Todate,thecommercialwirelessindustryhasdeliveredqualityservicestoconsumersbyrapidlydeployingthelimitedlicensedmid-bandspectrumavailable,beingasspectrallyefficientaspossible,optimizingtraffic,andrepurposingbands(commonlyknownas“re-farming”)tomeetevolvingdemand.2However,iftherelativeimbalancesinspectrumallocationarenotaddressedwithmorelicensedspectrummadeavailabletocommercialwirelessproviders,consumers,businessesandpublicserviceswillbeartheburdenoftheexpectednetworkstrain—throughdiminishedqualityandavailabilityofservices,andaninabilitytodeliveronthefullpromiseof5Gusecaseswhicharepoisedtotransformtheeconomyandhelptackleclimatechange.

Additionallicensedspectrumhasbeenmadeavailabletothecommercialwirelessindustryoverthepasttwoyears.Forexample,the3.45GHzband,theC-band,andtheCBRSband*collectivelymade270MHzavailabletothecommercialwirelessindustry,withanadditional180MHzexpectedbytheendof2023.Despitethisrecentprogress,furtheraccesstowide,contiguousspectrumisnecessarytobringglobalharmonization,limitthecoststodeployinfrastructure,andensurecontinuedefficientuseofalreadyallocatedcommercialwirelessspectrum.Inthisstudy,weexplorethelower3GHz,mid4GHz,and7to8.4GHzbandsasstrongcandidatestobolsternetworksandsupport5Gservices.Thesebands,ifallottedforlicensedcommercialwirelessuse,canenableAmericanstoreapthepromisedrewardsof5G,includingimprovedeconomicoutcomes,environmentalbenefitsthroughcarbonabatement,andtechnologicaladvancement.

*CBRSisincludedasCommercialWirelessSpectruminthisanalysisasitistechnicallylicensed,howeveritshouldbenotedthelowerpowerlimitsandgovernmentpreemptioninplaceinthisexperimentalsystem,maketheuseofthisbandforCommercialWirelessmorechallenging.

LowerMid-BandSpectrumDistributionwithCandidateBandsRe-allocated

ProposedAssignment

CurrentlyAvailable

CommercialWirelessSpectrum

(1600MHz)**

1.19x

Morespectrumthanwouldbeavailabletocommercialwireless

Unlicensed

Spectrum

(1910MHz)

Currently

Available

Proposed

Assignment

1.34x

Morespectrumthanwouldbeavailabletocommercialwireless

Government

Spectrum

(2150MHz)

CandidateBandsinFocus

350MHzinthe400MHzinthe400MHzinthe

3.1-3.45GHzband4.4-4.94GHzband7.125-8.4GHzband

**Thisscenarioreflectstheinclusionof180MHzplannedtobemadeavailablebytheendof2023

pendingclearingofthesecondtrancheofC-Band.

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CurrentLowerMid-BandSpectrumAllocationbyUseOverlaidwithAdditionalCandidateBands

Allocation

CommercialWireless

CommercialWireless

(Pending)GovernmentOther

Unlicensed

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Inouranalysis,weidentifiedthreebandsthatofferthegreatestpotentialformeetingtheneedsofadditional5G

deploymentsbywirelessoperators:thelower3GHz,mid4GHz,and7to8.4GHzbands.Below,weofferabrief

previewintohowthesebandsarepositionedamongexistingallocations,andtheuniquebenefitstheymayeach

presentifallocatedforCommercialWirelessuse.

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350MHzbetween

3.1to3.45GHz

Thelower3GHzbandoffersreliablecoverageandadequaterangeofcoverage,makingitidealfor5Gdatatraffic.Thisbandisadjacenttotherecentlyauctioned3.45GHzband,whichwouldhelpdrivelowercostsfordevicemanufacturerswhendevelopingproductsforawidercontiguousband.

400MHzinthe

4.4to4.94GHzrange

Themid4GHzbandisawidecontiguousblockofspectrumthatprovideshighcapacityfor5Gnetworks.Ithasbeenallocatedtowirelesscarriersinmanyothernations,meaningasimilarallocationintheUSwouldsupportinternationalharmonizationeffortsyieldingcostbenefits.

400MHzinthe

7.125to8.4GHzrange

The7to8.4GHzrangeisasignificantblockofhigherfrequencycontiguousspectrum.Thecapacitycharacteristicsofthisrangemakeitidealforservingdenselypopulatedareassuchasurbancenters,wheretrafficrequirementsaregreater.

Content

Introduction06

CurrentStateofSpectrumAllocation15

EvolutionofDemandforLicensedSpectrum21

SolutionstoMeetSpectrumDemand30

Conclusion39

Appendix42

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1.Introduction

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Section01

Introduction

ElectromagneticSpectrum4

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Whatisspectrum?Whydoesitmatterhowitisallocated?

Spectrumisafiniteresource

Radiospectrum(spectrum)istheunseenrawnaturalresourcethatunderpinsthewirelesstransmissionofinformation.Itconnectsourcommunitiesandenablesourmodernwayoflife.Withoutradiospectrum,therewouldbenomobiletelephonecalls,noemailsonthego,andnosatellitecommunications.

Radiospectrumispartoftheelectromagneticspectrumandiscomposedofvariousfrequencies(seeElectromagneticSpectrumandRadioSpectrum,right).Thesefrequenciesareorganizedintodifferentbands,whicheachhavedifferenttechnologicalapplicationsbasedonthefrequency’spropensityforcoverageandspeed.3

RadioSpectrum5

Increasingcapacity

Low-Band0.3-3GHz

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Thesebroadgroupingsofbandsarecommonlyreferredtoas:low-band,mid-bandandhigh-band(seeLow,MidandHigh-BandSpectrum,right).

Asahighly-covetedscarceresource,spectrummustbeallocatedinamannerthatminimizesinterference,maximizesefficientusage,andbalancesequitiestobenefitsociety.

Low,MidandHigh-BandSpectrum6

Low-Band

Mid-Band

High-Band

Mid-Band3-24GHz

High-Band24-50GHz

LowerMid-Band

3-8.4GHz

UpperMid-Band

8.4-24GHz

Travelslongerdistanceswithminimalsignalinterruption.Today’s4Gwirelessnetworksarebuiltprimarilyonlow-bandspectrum

Blendsthecharacteristicsofbothlowandhighbandspectrum,providingamixofcoverageandcapacity

Travelsmuchshorterdistances(thinkfeet,notmiles)comparedtolow-bandspectrum,butoffershighcapacityandultra-fastspeeds

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Theefficientuseofspectrumimpactsbusiness,government,andeverydaycitizens.Commercialentitiesrelyonspectrumtoprovidewirelessconnectivity(including5G)andrelatedservicestocustomers.Governmentreliesonspectrumforactivitiesincludingconductingresearch,providingsecurity,andoperatingsatellites.CommercialspectrumallocationiscarefullymanagedbytheFederalCommunicationsCommission(FCC)incoordinationwiththeNationalTelecommunications&InformationAssociation(NTIA).TheFCCmakescertainbandsavailabletospecificstakeholders,typicallythroughanauctionprocess.7

Itisabalancingacttomaximizethebenefitsofspectrumforeachstakeholder.8Forcommercialentities,itiseconomicreturnthroughsupportoftechnologicalprogressandinnovation.

Forgovernmententities,itissupportofbroadernationalpublicinterests.Becausecitizenshaveavestedinterestinbothpublicandcommercialspectrumallocation,strikingabalancebetweentheseinterestsisimperativetoeffectivelyservetheirneedsandmaximizequalityoflife.

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Spectrumallocationshouldfollowdemandandthe

potentialtodrivethegreatestsocietalbenefits

Demandforlicensedspectrumisgrowing

exponentially,indirectcorrelationtothe

increasingdemandforwirelessconnectivity,

asitbecomesfurtherengrainedinhowsociety

communicatesandfunctions.

Consumermobiledatausagecontinuestogrowatastunningrate;asofJune2022,theaveragemonthlymobiledatausagepersmartphoneinNorthAmericawasaround15GBandisprojectedtohit52GBin2027—representingacompoundannualgrowthrate(CAGR)of24%.9Thisdatausagewillonlycontinuetogrowas5Gsupportsawealthofnewusecasesforallusers.5Gwillenableamyriadofconnecteddevices(upto100xmorethan4G)andtechnologicalapplications(abletotransmitdataatupto100xthespeedof4G),anditwillrelyheavilyontheavailabilityofspectrum.10Itwillrequirehigh-bandspectrumtosupportmoredevicesandhighdatathroughputindenseurbanareasandmid-bandspectrumtoprovideamixofgeographiccoverageanddatathroughput.11,12Simultaneously,low-bandspectrumwillberequiredasa5Gcoveragelayeraswellastosupportandsustainexistingwirelessusecasesandpriorgenerationsoftechnology(e.g.,4G),whichcurrentlyprovidecoverageto99.9%of

Americans.13

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Thisgrowingdemandfor5G-enablingspectrumbecomesincreasinglycomplexwhenconsidering

howspectrumcansupportsustainability,economic,socialandgeopoliticaloutcomes.

AnAccenturestudypublishedearlierthisyearfoundthat5Ghasthepotentialtocontributeapproximately20%towardUS2025climatechangegoalsthroughusecasesthetechnologyenables.14Beyondthat—ifspectrumwereharmonizedwithglobalstandardsandallocatedincontiguousblocks—operatorsandequipmentmanufacturerscouldbepositionedtofurtherreducethecarbonfootprintoftheirsupplychains(moreonthisshortly).Thishasthepotentialtodrivemoreefficientequipmentdesignandspectrumusage,whileloweringpowerconsumption.

Fromaneconomicperspective,thedeploymentandoperationof5Gnetworksisexpectedtocreateupto4.5millionjobsandgenerate$1.5trillioningrossdomesticproduct(GDP)fortheUSeconomyfrom2021–2031.15

Socialpressuresarealsodrivingtheneedforequitableaccesstotheinternet.5Gunderpinsfixedwirelessaccess(FWA),whichwillbecriticalinbridgingthedigitaldivideandbringinghigh-speedinternettoruralcommunities,improvingqualityoflifeandenablingessentialservicessuchastelemedicineandremoteeducation.16

Last,geopoliticalpressuresarecreatingurgencytoacceleratetherolloutof5G,sobusinessescanremaincompetitiveintheglobaleconomy,andtheUScanretainitsstatusasa5Gleaderthroughoutthewirelessecosystem.ThiswillfurtherhelpmaintaintheinfluenceoftheUSwithinternationalstandard-settingorganizationsforwirelesscommunications.

Efficientallocationofspectrumiscriticaltotheevolutionofwirelesstechnology,andforenablingAmericanstoreapthemultitudeofbenefitspromisedby5G.17

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Howdoesspectrumgetallocated,andwhoisinvolved?

Primarystakeholders*

Spectrumstakeholdersincludethosethatmanagespectrum,usespectrum,anddesignandmanufacturedeviceswhichleveragethatspectrum.

Stewardsofspectrum

?Telecommunicationscompaniesthatpurchasespectrumlicensesandusethefrequenciestodeployservicestobusinessesandconsumers

?Governmentorganizationsthathaverightsto,andusespectrumfornationalinterestusecases

?TheFCCandNTIA,whichmanagespectrumallocation,whetherlicensedorunlicensed

?Othercommercialentitiesthatusespectrumtoprovideservices(e.g.,broadcasters,satelliteoperators)

Asdemandforusecasesrequiring

commerciallyallocatedandlicensed

spectrumcontinuestogrowatarapidpace,

howcouldtheallocationofthisfinite

resourceevolvetostrikeabetterbalance

acrosstheecosystem?

OriginalEquipmentManufacturers

?Technologycompaniesthatengineerandbuilddeviceswhichtransmitandreceiveinformationwirelesslyusingcertainfrequenciesontheradiospectrum

Usersofspectrum

?Customersoftelecommunicationsproviders

?Usersofgovernmentservices(e.g.,marineradar)

?Generalpublicusersofunlicensedbands(e.g.,Wi-Fi)

*Listofstakeholdersisnotexhaustive.

UNLICENSED

LICENSED

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Spectrumallocationlevers

Intheprocessofspectrumallocation,severaldecisionsmustbemade.Willthespectrumbeallocatedforexclusivelicensedorgeneralunlicenseduse?Whichtypesofentitiesmayusethelicensedspectrum?Howisthespectrummanaged?IntheUS,thesequestionsareanswered,anddecisionscoordinated,bytheFCCandtheNTIA.

LicensedorUnlicensed

Spectrumlicensesgrantthespectrumlicenseholder(whichcouldbegovernment,commercial,orindividual)thesolerighttouseairwaves(foraparticularuse)withinthedefinedfrequencyband(s),geographicreach,andduration.18

GENERALPUBLICUSE

GOVERNMENTUSE

SHAREDUSE

COMMERCIALUSE

NON-CONTIGUOUS(FRAGMENTED)

CONTIGUOUS

Licensedspectrumenablestheholdertomanageagainstinterferenceandcontrolthelevelofservicedelivered,providingabenefittousers.Simultaneously,licensedspectrumallowsoperatorstobuildmobilenetworkswhichareengineeredwiththelatestglobalstandards(e.g.5G),bringingforwardenhancedsecuritybenefits.Bycomparison,spectrumallocatedforunlicenseduseisavailabletothegeneralpublic,butdoesnotguaranteecapacityduetopossibleinterferenceandcongestion.CommonunlicensedusesincludeWiFi,Bluetooth,andamateurradio.

LicensedRightofUse

Onceitisdeterminedthatthespectrumwillbelicensedoutforexclusiveuse,whichtypeofentityitshouldbemadeavailabletomustbedecided.Themostcommonstakeholdersthatmayownorleasealicenseincludegovernmententities(forfederalorstateuse,research,security,andmore)orcommercialentities(telecommunicationsoperators,broadcasters,orotherprivatecompanies).Sharedusereferstocaseswheresimultaneoususeofthesameairwavesispossiblebetweenvariousentities(whichmayincludeunlicensedusers).Therearevariousmechanismsused,includinggeographicandtemporalsharing,andvariouslicensingformats,togovernthesharingofspectrumtoensureinterferenceisavoided.19

ContiguousvsNon-Contiguous(Fragmented)

Akeyconsiderationintheefficientuseofallocatedspectrumistheblocksizeandarrangement.Contiguousspectrumreferstofrequencyblocksbeingallocatednexttoeachother.Acontiguousblockenablesthelicense-holdertousespectrumintherangemoreefficiently20andrequiresfewerantennasofdevicemanufacturers,whichsignificantlyreducestheenvironmentalimpactoftheseelectronics.Ingeneral,thewidertheblock(andthereforethemorecontiguousthespectrum),thegreaterthethroughputandabilityfordevicestooperatewithinthegivenrange.

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Thecurrentstateofspectrumallocationislikelytoinhibitthe

growthandinnovationpromisedby5G,resultinginnegative

impactsontheuserexperience.Itcouldalsoleadto

inefficienciesinnetworkdesignthatwillimpactmultiple

spectrumstakeholders(operators,OEMs,andconsumers),by

requiringmoreantennas,power,andphysicalinfrastructure,

drivingupcosts.Thisspectrumdeficitinturnposesariskof

risingconsumerpriceswhichcouldperpetratebarriersto

closingthedigitaldivide.

Toremedythis,morespectrumcouldbemadeavailablefor

licensedcommercialuse,particularlyinthemid-band,where

manyofthekeyfrequenciesthatenablemodern5Guse

casesreside.

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Section02

CurrentStateofSpectrumAllocation

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CurrentStateofSpectrumAllocation

Thissectionexaminesthecurrentallocationofspectrumacrossfourbandsfordifferentusesandpurposes:licensedgovernmentuse,licensedcommercialwirelessuse,unlicenseduse,andotheruses.Analysisfoundadisparityintheamountofspectrumallocatedtoeachentitytype.

ForefrontofWireless

Communication

5GGrowthEngine

Future5G&

NextGenerationofWireless

SuperHighCapacity5G

LOW-BAND

LOWERMID-BAND

UPPERMID-BAND

HIGH-BAND

300MHz3GHz8.4GHz24GHz50GHz

36%

43%

Allocation

GHzAllocated

GHzauction,whichisreflectedintheallocationsillustratedbelow),providingmorevaluablelow-bandspectrumtocommercialwirelessproviders.Thisemphasismeansthatwhilespectrumisbalancedinthisarea,littleroomisleftforfutureexpansionof5Gnetworksandusecases.Stewardsoflow-bandspectrum,particularlycommercialplayers,havebeen“re-farming”thisspectrumtotransitionitsusefrompreviousgenerationsto5G.However,evenwiththesemeasures,low-bandcannotprovideenoughspectrumfor5Gonitsown.Additionally,maintainingexistingspectrumforearliergenerationsofwirelessserviceswillremaincriticalwhile5Gnetworksarerolledout.

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300MHz–3GHz

Low-BandSpectrumAllocation

Low-bandsp