Gartner 2023年未來(lái)發(fā)展方向：顛覆時(shí)代

ThemissionofGartnerFuturesLabistochallengeconventionalwisdomandtoexploreplausible"whatif"futurestohelpyoureconsiderimplicationsforthepresent.

THISDECKISBROUGHTTOYOU

BYGARTNERFUTURESLAB.

Gartner|AgeofDisruptions

05THEAGEOFDISRUPTION

WHATCOULDPOSSIBLYGOWRONG?…ORRIGHT?

07

THREEDISRUPTIVEWAYSTODEALWITHDISRUPTION

09

13WORLDUNCERTAINTYINDEX

THEENVIRONMENTISBECOMINGMOREEXTREME

15

THEDIFFERENCEBETWEENTRENDSANDDISRUPTIONS

16

DISRUPTIONS

18TheFirstDAOtoEnterMostAdmiredBrandList

20FirstPermanentLab-GrownOrganTransplant

22GlobalHyperspeedTravelforPeopleIsPossib

le

24DualInternationalOrderTakesHold

26NorthernAfricanEconomicUnionEstablished

28FirstIndustrializedNuclearReactorCommerciallyAvailable

30CostofSpaceTravel:LessThan$10perKilogram

32MajorCoastalCityLosesHalfofItsPopulation

34Overcomethe125-Year-Age-LimitCeiling

36TheFirstCountryBecomesCalorieSelf-Sufficient

38AG20CountryTaxesNonchildrearing

40FirstS&P100CompanytoFullyDisclosePay

42FirstBrain-ComputerInterfacesCommerciallyAvailable

44AIGainsPersonhoodinaLegalSystem

46EUIntroducesBlanketRight-to-RepairLaw

48FirstG20CountrytoIntroduceUBI

50GeomagneticStormDisablesMajorityofSatellites

52SpaceJunkRunawayCollisionsStart

54DesalinatedWaterBecomesasAccessibleasBottledWater

DISRUPTIONCOMBINATIONS

17

56

59WORKSHOP

Gartner|AgeofDisruptions

?2023Gartner,Inc.and/oritsaffiliates.Allrightsreserved.780939_C

Theonlylong-termpredictionthatcurrentlymakessense

isthattherereallyisnopredictability.CIOsshouldassume

continueddisruptionatahigherorequalfrequencyand

scale.CIOsshouldthereforeintroducechaosengineering,

redefinewhatagilitymeansandbuildafuturistfunction.

Gartner|AgeofDisruptions

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4

MassiveProtests

(2019-2020)

Russia-UkraineWar

(2022)

Brexit

(2018-2021)

TradeWars

(2018-2019)

Record-BreakingWildfireSeason

(2020)

ChinaEnergyCrisis

(2021)

Japan7.3

Earthquake

(2022)

EuropeanGasCrisis

(2022)

SuezCanalObstruction

(2021)

BreakingSeason

MassiveFlooding

(2020-2021)

U.S.Elections

(2020-2021)

ColonialPipelineCyberattack

(2021)

Record-

Hurricane

(2020)

COVID-19

(2019-TBD)

ofoverlappingcrises(seemap).Anticipatingthenextpoliticalshifts,socialupheaval,superstorm,inflationorinvasion—andtheircombinedcumulativeeffect—hasbeenimpossible.Executivessaythey’vebeengoingthroughthemotionswithobsoletestrategiesandbudgetingexercises.

Notsolongago,adisruptionmeantthe

suddenemergenceofabusinessrivalthat

upendedanindustry,usuallythroughdigital

innovation.Thosejoltswerescaryenough,

butlatelyexternalshockshavehiteven

harder,alteringmanysectorsatonce.They’ve

hitbigger,surgingacrossthewholeworld.

CIOsandbusinessleaderstellusthey’ve

beenunpreparedfortheknock-oneffects

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5

Gartner|AgeofDisruptions

Thisreportpresentsanoverviewof19disruptionsthatmightmaterializesometimebetweennowand2033.ItincludesaToolkittohelpyouidentifydisruptionsthroughthelensesoftechnology,economics,politics,society,trustandethics,regulations,andtheenvironment.

You’llfindentriesthatwillseemgradualuntiltheyreachaturningpoint,andsomethatwillseemfancifuluntiltheyarereal.You’llfinddisruptionsthatcouldsetyourcompanybackanddisruptionsthatcouldpavethewayforhugebreakthroughs.

Gartner|AgeofDisruptions

Whattheyhaveincommon:outsizedimpactifandwhentheyoccur.

Wehavetoassumedisruptionwillcontinue,andatafrequencyandscaleequaltoorgreaterthanwhatwehavewitnessed.Thisassumptionissaferthanexpectingsmoothsailing.

Through2033,suddendisruptionswillkeepdominatingtheexecutiveagenda,leadingtohighercostofbusinessand“decisionmakingunderuncertainty”becomingamaincompetitivedifferentiator.

Wewantyoutoridethestormwith

confidence,sowewillalsointroduce

threedisruptivewaystosurfdisruption:

Implementchaosengineeringto

cultivateorganizationalresilience

Redefineagility

Buildafuturistcapability

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6

Thesedisruptionsarenotpredictions.Theyareexamplesofthingsthatmay

ormaynothappen,whichcouldpromptyoutoshiftgear,improviseandrespond.

TheFirstDAOtoEnterMostAdmiredBrandList

FirstPermanentLab-GrownOrganTransplantSETBACKBREAKTHROUGH

GlobalHyperspeedTravelforPeopleIsPossibleSETBACKBREAKTHROUGH

DualInternationalOrderTakesHoldSETBACKBREAKTHROUGH

Political

NorthernAfricanEconomicUnionEstablished

Technological

SETBACK

BREAKTHROUGH

arecurrentlynoindicationsthiswillhappeninanyparticulartimeframe,

InSeptember2022,NASAcrashedaspacecraftintoanasteroidasanexperimenttochangeitscourse.Theexperimentwouldhelppreparefor

theunlikelyeventanasteroidwouldbeheadingforplanetEarth.There

buttheimpactwouldbesoseverethatthisexperiment’ssuccessiscrucialtosurvival.Whatotherdisruptionsareworthconsidering?1

Category

Disruption

Opinion

BREAKTHROUGH

SETBACK

TECHNOLOGICAL

POLITICAL

ECONOMIC

SOCIAL/CULTURAL

TRUST/ETHICS

REGULATORY/LEGAL

ENVIRONMENTAL

Gartner|AgeofDisruptionsBACKTOTableofContents|7

TECHNOLOGICALPOLITICALECONOMICSOCIAL/CULTURALTRUST/ETHICSREGULATORY/LEGALENVIRONMENTAL

Gartner|AgeofDisruptions

Opinion

TAPESTRY

Disruption

BREAKTHROUGH

SETBACK

FirstIndustrializedNuclearReactorCommerciallyAvailable

Economic

CostofSpaceTravel:LessThan$10perKilogram

SETBACKBREAKTHROUGH

MajorCoastalCityLosesHalfItsPopulation

SETBACKBREAKTHROUGH

Overcomethe125-Year-Age-LimitCeiling

SETBACKBREAKTHROUGH

BREAKTHROUGH

Social/Cultural

TheFirstCountryBecomesCalorieSelf-Sufficient

SETBACK

BREAKTHROUGH

SETBACK

AG20CountryTaxesNonchildrearing

SETBACK

BREAKTHROUGH

FirstS&P100CompanytoFullyDisclosePay

Trust/Ethics

SETBACK

BREAKTHROUGH

FirstBrain-ComputerInterfacesCommerciallyAvailable

SETBACK

BREAKTHROUGH

AIGainsPersonhoodinaLegalSystem

Regulatory/Legal

SETBACK

BREAKTHROUGH

EUIntroducesBlankedRight-to-RepairLaw

SETBACK

BREAKTHROUGH

FirstG20CountrytoIntroduceUBI

SETBACK

BREAKTHROUGH

GeomagneticStormDisablesMajorityofSatellite

s

Environmental

SETBACK

BREAKTHROUGH

SpaceJunkRunawayCollisionsStart

SETBACK

BREAKTHROUGH

DesalinatedWaterBecomesasAccessibleasBottledWater

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8

IMPLEMENTCHAOS

ENGINEERINGTOCULTIVATE

ORGANIZATIONALRESILIENCE

REDEFINEAGILITY

BUILDAFUTURIST

CAPABILITY

Disruptionsdemandrevisitingthewayyouseeandapproachtheworld,thewayyouworkandthewayyouorganize.Youcaneventurnthatcapabilityintoacompetitiveadvantage.

1

IMPLEMENTCHAOSENGINEERINGTOCULTIVATEORGANIZATIONALRESILIENCE

Creatingresilienceisthemostpopularenterpriseresponsetouncertainty.Resiliencedoesn’tcomefromguardingagainstdisruption—theaimshouldbetoabsorbit,experienceitandevolvefromit.Sometimes,resiliencecomesfromacounterintuitiveperspective,inthiscase,creatingchaos.

Thisconcept,knownaschaosengineering,

extendstomanyindustries.Airportsecurity

Gartner|AgeofDisruptions

staff,forinstance,needahighlevelofconcentrationwhentheywatchmonitorsthatdisplayX-raysofluggage.Becauseprohibitedmaterialsrarelyshowup,itiseasytolosefocus.Thisiswhythesoftwarehasfunctionalitybuilt-intodigitallyintroduceforbiddenobjectsintotheX-raypicturesonthescreen.Securitystaffknowtheyarerequiredtospotthese,anditwillhappenafewtimesduringtheirshift.Counterintuitively,corruptingtheprocessresultsinhigherlevelsofsafety.

Leadersshouldmakechaosengineeringahabit.Yourscenarioplanningshouldincludeatleastafewoutlandishstorylinestoseehow

yourstrategicinitiativeswouldrespond

toit.Inbusinessprocesses,regularlyfeed

outliercasesthatdonotfitthestandard.

Thegoalistoseewhetherthesecasesare

ignored,rejectedormetwithcreativity,and

periodicallygivepeopletasksoutsidetheir

comfortzone.

NetflixbuiltatoolcalledChaosMonkeythat

intentionallydisablescompanycomputerstosee

howthetotalnetworkrespondstotheoutage.2

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10

2

Inoneresearchstudy,participantswereshown

aLEGOstructureofabridgethatwasuneven

becauseofadifferentnumberofblocksused

oneitherside.Theirassignmentwastomake

thestructureeven.Eightypercentchosetoadd

ablock;only20%optedforremovingablock.

Whenfacedwithaproblem,peopletendtoselect

solutionsthatinvolveaddingnewelementsrather

thantakingawayexistingcomponents.3

inyourorganization,decreasingliquidity.Andliquidityisoneofthehighestformsofagilityanorganizationcanhave.

Trythesetipsforcraftingaculture

ofsimpleagility.

DoLess

Focusonminimumviablestrategies,processes,systemsoranythingelsethatrequiresdevelopmentorengineering.Thelessthereistochange,theeasieritbecomestomovefast.

Removerules,requirementsandotherformsofcomplexity.Awordofcautionhere—removingcomplexitymustbebasedonaclearunderstandingofstrategy:

Gobeyondannualrehearsals.Embracechaosbysimulatingpositiveandnegativeuncertaintiesbeforetheyhappen.Thismeansyourorganizationcanexploituncertaintiesforopportunitiesmissedbyyourrivals,ratherthanbeingheldhostagetothemwhentheyoccur.

REDEFINEAGILITY

Toadaptquicklytodisruption,agilitymustgowaybeyondconventionalmethodologiessuchasscrums,DevOps,etc.

However,ittakestimetobuildsystems,processesorstrategiesthatareagile,andkeepingyouroptionsopenissimplymoreexpensive.Highercoststieupmorecapital

Specifically,whichbusinessprocessesshouldbeconsideredcommoditiesandwhicharedifferentiators.Allthingsbeingequal,simplifyingcommoditiesisa“noregrets”move.Differentiatorsshouldbeconsideredmorecarefully.Weshouldnotmortgagethefuturebusinessbysimplifyingelementstofitcurrentcontextandassumptions.

Don’tBuildforEternity

Strategiesusuallyhavealifespanofperhapsone,threeorfiveyears.Someorganizationshaveastrategythatis20or50yearsout.However,systemsorprocessesareusuallybuiltwithoutanenddateinmind.Makesurethateverythingyoudesignhasacertain

COVID-19-

Android

measurestowouldend.4

AppleandGooglejointlydeveloped

trackingfunctionalityforiPhonesand

phones,buttheyweretemporary

bediscontinuedafterthepandemic

mechanismsthatdonotbuildonplansof?

previousperiods,butstartwithacleanslate.Fundnewplansbasedonthevaluetheybringevenifthatmeansexceedingtheallocatedfunctionalbudgettograbanimportantopportunity.Shiftresourcesorfindawaytogeneratethestafftimeandmoneyrequired.

?Rewardthespeedwithwhichpeoplecansetnewtargetswhenadisruptiontakesplace,insteadofstickingtooldtargetsbecausetheydidn’texpireyet.

Createacultureinwhichreorganizationsarenotseenasathreat,butsimplyasalocalandtacticaloptimum.Makereassignmentsofpeopleeasyandmakeitanexpectation.Facilitateinternalmobility,notjustwithinternaljobplatforms,butbyestablishingformalrotationprogramsforall,orsome,keyroles.Rewardmanagerswhoseteam

rhythmofexpiry.Forsomedesignsthismay

beafewyears,forothersjustafewmonths

orevensingleuse—buteachoneshouldbe

disposable.Anythingthatiseasyandcost-

effectivetoreplaceisalsoagile.

FindYourUnbalance

membersfindandmovetointernalopportunitieseachyear—aswellasfortheirabilitytoattractinternaltalent.

Managersinorganizationstendtofavor

stabilityoverchange.Adoptsomeorall

ofthefollowingpractices:

?

Usezero-basedplanningandbudgeting

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BUILDAFUTURISTCAPABILITY

Wherethereissomestability,wecanforecastandpredictandmoveforwardwithalevelofuncertainty.That’stheeasypart.Butintimesofturbulenceanddisruption,forecastsandpredictionsbecomeimpossible.Cause-and-effectanalysisleadsintoomanydirections.Inthesesituations,itpaystohaveafuturistcapabilitybyintroducing“continuousforesight”totheorganization.

Afuturistdoesn’tsticktoanalyzingtrends.Afuturisthelpstheorganizationmanageuncertainty.

Someorganizationscreateasmallteamaspartofthestrategyfunction.Butafuturistcapabilitycanalsobea“mindset,”somethingexercisedasanexecutiveteam.

3

Thefuturistmustadoptfivemindsets:

?Observersspendtimemostlyonwhat’soutthere.Theydiscusscurrentandfuturetrendsandhelpdeterminehowthattranslatesbacktotheorganization.

?Respondersarereactive.Assoonasadisruptionoccurs,theydevelopplanstoaddressthemandgettactical.

?Explorersarecurious.Theyconsiderwhatmightbelikelytohappenandtheimplicationsofthosescenarios.Theyareproactiveandprepared.

?Architectsworkinside-out,designingtheorganizationforthebestpossiblefutureandbuildingtowarditwithaclearsenseofpurpose.

?Luminariesimaginemultiple,alternatefutures—someofthemimprobable.Luminariestelluswhatmighthappen,andthenlookbackwardtofillintheblankswithstepstomakethathappen,includingdisruptionsandtrendstowatchfor.

Gartner|AgeofDisruptions

Withafuturistcapability,thegoalistofuture-fityourorganization.Howwellareyourstrategicinitiativesgearedtowardmultiplefuturescenarios?Howquicklycanyoupivot,ifadisruptionrequiresit?Howresilientareyouinabsorbingchange?

Butmoreimportant,havingafuturistcapabilityhelpsyoutotakechargeandbeadisruptoryourself,andchangetheworld.

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060000

EVENUNCERTAINTYISUNCERTAIN

Whileuncertaintyisexperiencedtodifferent

extentsaroundtheworld,andoftenfollowed

byperiodsofstability,theextent(i.e.,thepeaks)

ofuncertaintyincreaseswitheverydecade.

TheWorldUncertaintyIndex(WUI)is

computedbycountingthepercentageof

theword“uncertain”(oritsvariant)inthe

EconomistIntelligenceUnit(EIU)country

reports.TheWUIisthenrescaledby

multiplyingbyonemillion.Ahighernumber

meanshigheruncertaintyandviceversa.

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COVID-19Pandemic

U.S.FiscalCliffandSovereignDebtCrisisinEurope

IraqWarand

OutbreakofSARS

U.S.Recession

and9/11

FinancialCreditCrunch

GulfWarI

Brexit

1990

2022

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13

0%100%0%100%0%100%

5977

5477

49

39

39

Italy

Belgium

U.S.

U.K.

7788

54

54

46

2020-2021

Canada

SouthKorea

Japan

Netherlands

61%

83

61

59

66%

53

56

47

44

15

3634

36%

29%

2729

Sweden

Spain

Germany

France

68

58

53

Mostpeoplebelievetheirsocietyisnowmoredividedthanbeforethepandemic,accordingtoaPewResearchCentersurveyin17advancedeconomies.Whileamedianof34%ofpeoplefeelmoreunited,aboutsixin10reportthatnationaldivisionshaveworsenedsincetheoutbreakbegan.In12of13countriessurveyedinboth2020and2021,feelingsofdivisionhaveincreasedsignificantly,insomecasesbymorethan30%.6

39

29

43

36

21

18

FEELINGSOFDIVISIONHAVEINCREASEDSIGNIFICANTLY

63

66

55

46

42

45

40

34

10

30

18

MoreDividedMoreUnited

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ThemostsignificanthurricaneoftheNorthAtlanticseasonwasIda.IdamadelandfallinLouisianaon29August2021withsustainedone-minutewindsof240km/h,whichequaledthestrongestlandfallonrecordforthestate,withmajorwinddamageandstormsurgeinundation.Thesystemcontinuedonanortheasttrackoverlandwithsignificantflooding,especiallyintheNewYorkCityarea.Intotal,72directand43indirectdeathswereattributedtoIdaintheUnitedStates

Theglobalmeantemperaturefor2021(basedondatafromJanuarythroughSeptember)was

1.08±0.13°Cabovethe1850-1900average.

andVenezuela,witheconomiclossesintheUnitedStatesestimatedat$63.8billion.

WesternEuropeexperiencedsomeofitsmostseverefloodingonrecordinmid-July2021.TheworstaffectedareawaswesternGermanyandeasternBelgium,where100to150mmofrainfelloverawideareaon14-15Julyoverwetground.Thehighestdailyrainfallwas162.4mmatWipperfürthGardenau,Germany.Numerousriversexperiencedextremeflooding,withseveraltownsinundated,andtherewerealsoseverallandslides.Therewere179deathsreportedinGermanyand36inBelgium,witheconomiclossesinGermanyexceeding$20billion.7

Therateofglobalsealevelrisehasincreasedsincesatellitealtimetermeasurementsbeganin1993,reaching4.4mm/yrbetween2013and2021.Globalmeansealevelsreachedarecordhighin2021.

The2021summerheatwaveinwesternNorthAmericatookatollontheregion’smountainglaciers,withexceptionalmasslossesintheCascade,southernCoast,andRockyMountains.MasslossatsomeglaciersinsouthwesternBritishColumbiawasthegreatestonrecord(1965-2021).

DeathValley,Californiareached54.4°C

on9July2021,equalingasimilar2020

valueasthehighestrecordedinthe

worldsinceatleastthe1930s.

Gartner|AgeofDisruptionsBACKTOTableofContents|15

Thisresearchfocuses

onplausibledisruptions

thatmayoccur...

NOT

...nottrendsthatwewouldpredict.

Forthisresearch,manyobviousdisruptionsaremissing,suchasquantumcomputing,themetaverseoradvancesinlanguagemodels.Thisisintentional.Wechosetohighlightasetofdisruptionsthatformanywouldbelessobvioustoconsider.

Gartner|AgeofDisruptions

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Thefollowing19disruptionscomefromaseriesofworkshopswiththeinputofhundredsofGartnerexperts,acrossallofitspractices,fromITtoHR,frommarketingtosupplychain.Thesessionsgeneratedalotofenergyandinsight,andasabonus,theywerefun.

Thefinalselectionwasperformedbythecoreprojectteam,largelyconsistingofmembersoftheGartnerSeniorContentLeadershipBoard.WeusedourTPESTREframework(wepronounceit“tapestry”)tostructuretheworkshopsandanalysis.

Tapestryconsistsofthefollowing

perspectives:technological,political,

economic,social/cultural,trust/ethics,

regulatory/legalandenvironmental.

Gartner|AgeofDisruptions

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SCOPE

Individual

Organization

LEVELOFUNCERTAINTY

Completely

Unknown

LEVELOFDEPARTUREFROMSTATUSQUO

Partial

SocietyasaWhole

FullyKnown

Full

T

SETBACK

BREAKTHROUGH

ECHNOLOGICAL

POLITICAL

ECONOMIC

SOCIAL/CULTURAL

TRUST/ETHICS

REGULATORY/LEGAL

ENVIRONMENTAL

DAVIDPIDSLEY&FRANKBUYTENDIJK

Gartner|AgeofDisruptions

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DATAPOINTS

?Currentnegativesentimentagainstthepoweroflargeenterprises(BigTech)couldfeedDAOmomentum.8

?ThenumberofparticipantsinDAOsgrewin

2021from13,000to1.7millionpeoplearoundtheworld.9

?But…cryptohaslost$2trillioninvaluein2022.10

CONSEQUENCES

?Autonomousbusinesses,organizedasDAOs,maybedetrimentaltoemploymentopportunities.

?Nationswillhavetorevisittheirtaxationpractices,introducingaproductivitytax.

?AsDAOsscale,theymaytakeovermarketsquickerthanthecurrentdigitalgiantsare.

?DAOssetnewstandardsforefficiencyandspeedforeverybusiness.

?ParticipantsinaDAOmaynothavethebestintentionswhentheyvote.

?Hackingahigh-profileDAOcanleadtoitsimmediatedownfall.

OPPORTUNITIES

?OpenanddistributednatureofDAOenablestrust.

?Loweroperatingcost(salaries)andhighgrowthpotential(scale).

?ADAOallowsself-employedpeopletoorganizeandunite.

?ADAOtakesgovernancetothenextlevelbyintroducinganaccountable,equitableandtransparentincentivemechanism.

?Alternativesfortraditionalcorporatestructuresthatareunderfire.

?Diversityofstakeholdersmayleadtomoreinclusivedecisionmaking,seeingchangeearlier.

DEFINITION

Adecentralizedautonomousorganization(DAO)isadigitalentity,runningonatrust-basedblockchain,thatcanengageinbusinessinteractionswithotherDAOs,digitalandhumanagents,aswellascorporations,withoutconventionalhumanmanagement.DAOsrelyonsoftwareconsensusmechanismsand

smartcontractstodefineandprogramtherulesofcommercialengagements.Itdisruptscurrentstylesoforganizationsthatarebasedmoreoncontrols,hierarchyandpeople-drivenprocesses.CurrentDAOsincludeBitDAO,DashandUniswap.

Gartner|AgeofDisruptions