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TRANS-COSMOSINC.CHINAENTRYSTRATEGYPRESENTATIONFebruary8,2001AGENDAExecutiveSummaryCallCenterBusinessMarketOverviewCCCustomerSegmentationIn-houseusersOutsourcersDemandCustomerEconomicsCompetitionRecommendationsSuccessbusinessmodelPartneringstrategyE-CommerceMarketOverviewTCITianjinCurrentSituationAnalysisRecommendationsAGENDAExecutiveSummaryCallCenterBusinessMarketOverviewCCCustomerSegmentationIn-houseusersOutsourcersDemandCustomerEconomicsCompetitionRecommendationsSuccessbusinessmodelPartneringstrategyE-CommerceMarketOverviewTCITianjinCurrentSituationAnalysisRecommendationsCHINAISBECOMINGAHIGHLYDYNAMICCCMARKETChina’scallcentermarkettookoffsince1998withanannualgrowthrateover100%Non-pagingmarketsizereached54,000seatsin2000HoweverpastgrowthwaslargelydrivenbydemandsfromadministrativedrivensectorOver60%ofthenewCCdemandcomesfromfourpillarindustries:Banking,PostServices,Fixed-lineTelecom,andInsuranceDistinctivepurchasingbehavioridentifiedforthesepurchasesFuturegrowthwillbepropelledbyserviceorientedandoutsourcingsegmentsServiceorientedsegmentexpectedtobe50%oftotalCCmarketOutsourcingmarketwillgrowatleast50%ayearforthenextfewyearsHoweverlargevarianceexistsforoutsourcingsegmentgrowthOverall,ChinaCCmarketisexpectedtoreachover130,000seatsin2004and340,000seatsin2010CCOURSOURCERSAREEMERGINGBUTSTILLEXPLORING(I)Currently,CCoutsourcingbusinessisbrandnewinChinaNomorethan30companiesprovidingmerelyabout3,200seatsinserviceOver70-80%supplyconcentratedin4majorcitiesFutureoutsourcingdevelopmentishighlydependentoncurrentplayer’sperformanceandstrategiesPotentialcustomersconcernedaboutquality,confidentiality,informationprocessingability,HR,andpriceGrowthwillfluctuatewidelyaccordingtotheindustry’sabilitytosatisfycustomerconcernsandrequirementsnowInshortterm,competitionwillbeminimumduetohighlydifferentiatedpositionsandlargenumberofunexploitedpotentialoutsourcingcustomersInmediumterm,pagingcompaniescanbepowerfulanddesperatecompetitorsinthelow-endoutsourcingmarketThatmightdistorttheindustryprofitabilityandtriggerviciouscompetitionHoweverhigh-endoutsourcingmarketmightbeintactCurrently,onlylow-price/standardservicevendorsareprofitableUtilization,andtherefore,long-termcustomers,isthekeyforprofitabilityHowever,high-pricedoutsourcingsolutionsnotwidelyacceptedbythemarketButinthelong-run,webelievehigh-endserviceswillbevaluedbycustomersWeareencouragedbyrecentpositivenewsonclients’long-termcommitmentstohigh-endoutsourcersWithChina’spendingWTOEntryandcontinuedeconomicgrowth,webelieveit’sthedirectionHigh-endoutsourcerscanwinthegamebyaggressivelyestablishinglong-termclientbase,andtargetingvariousoutsourcingopportunitiesalongthevaluechainFivesuccessfulstrategiesidentifiedfornewcustomerdevelopmentTelemarketingandvalue-addedinformationservicemostlikelytobeoutsourcedCCOURSOURCERSAREEMERGINGBUTSTILLEXPLORING(II)TCISHOULDPARTNERWITHRIGHTLOCALCCOUTSOURCERSApartneringstrategyisessentialforTCItocapturethegreatopportunitiesinChinaTCIlacksabunchoflocalcapabilities,whiletimeiscontingentTCIshouldtargetbothmoneymaking,andmoneylosingtechadvancedoutsourcersduringnegotiationprocess,basedontwoplausiblepartnershipstrategiesMoneymakingones:shareprofitsandleveragelocalstrengthMoneylosingones:controlandnegotiateforabargaindealConsideringthelimitednumberofcandidatesinChinaandTCI’stightschedule,abroadersearchcanstrengthenTCI’snegotiationpositionFivepromisingoutsourcersidentifiedduringtheinterviewprocessMoneymakingones:ChinaMotion,800Teleservices,andCompaq-StarMoneylosingones:TCY,ITSShanghaiEC:ONLYSOFTWAREFIRMSANDSIsWORTHPURSUINGAlthoughunderbooming,ChinaE-CommercemarketareexperiencingbottlenecksOnlinepopulationandrevenuesgrew10timesinthepast3yearsHowever,macro-environmentandinfrastructureareproblematic……andonlyfewICP/ISPsaremakingmoneyICP,ISPandtechnologycompanies,asasector,arenotworthTCI’spursuitICP:MarketisdownwhilemostChinaICPsarestillattheirearlystagedevelopmentISP:Highlyfragmentedandregulated,whichsuffocatebothforeignparticipationandprofitabilityTechcompanies:SuperioronescanhardlysurviveinChinaHowever,severaltopventuresintheabovesectorsarequiteinteresting,whichareidentifiedandillustratedindetailforTCI’sfurtherinterestICP:51;S;A;DISP:263Net;EastnetTCI-TJ:RSTRUCTURINGANDBUILDINGSTRATEGICALLIANCESTCI-TJexperienceddifficultiesduetobothpromotionandmanagementissuesThoughimproving,thefirmisintrinsicallyuncompetitiveinChinamarketItshouldrestructureforbetterperformance…RedefinecorporatemissionsandstrategiesRestructureprojectarrangement,reporting,measurementandincentivesystemsRefocusitssalesonJapanesecompaniesinChinaandinJapan…andfindstrategicallianceforTCI’sChinaexpansionTCIshouldonlypartnerwithprestigiouslocalsoftwarecompanyorsystemintegratorsWisewayscreenedallthepotentialcandidateslistsandfunneleddown5mostpromisingcompaniesforTCI’sfurthercontactLongshine;GlobaleForce;eBIS;ModernComputer;HuatengSoftwareAGENDAExecutiveSummaryCallCenterBusinessMarketOverviewCCCustomerSegmentationIn-houseusersOutsourcersDemandCustomerEconomicsCompetitionRecommendationsSuccessbusinessmodelPartneringstrategyE-CommerceMarketOverviewTCITianjinCurrentSituationAnalysisRecommendationsCCMERELYABUSINESSPRACTICEBEFORE1997HightelecomchargeLowphonepenetrationWeakserviceattitudeWidespreadindustrymonopolyCommercialCClessthan10,000seatsin1997(2)Phonecallcharge(centsperminute)ChinaUSPhonepenetration(%)#ofphones(1)(million)1997825399229AutomotiveExample:ExpertSurvey1997PriceCompetitionfocus(%)(1)Fixedline+mobile(2)Excludingabout50,000seatsinpagingcompanySource:WorldDevelopmentReport1999/2000;ChinaAutoMarket1997;JardingFlemingResearch;interviewsQualityServiceStyleNationalmonopolyBankingTelecomInsuranceUtilitityRegionalprotectedSteelAutoPetrochemicalTobacco...Monopolizedindustryestimated55%ofindustrialoutputHighertelecompenetrationCOMMERCIALCCTOOKOFFSINCE1998

EspeciallyinNon-PagingServiceSectorPenetration(%)YearCAGRFixedlineMobile37%83%Non-pagingCCseats(’000)YearCAGR=129%IntensifiedcompetitionMostindustriescapacityoverproductionDecliningretailpricesYearGDPindexRetailpriceindexIndexGrowingawarenessoftechnologyInternetusers(mio)E-Commercerevenue(US$M)GraduallyreducedtelecomfeeSource:JardingFlemingResearch;ChinaStatisticsYearbook;interviews;OECD;ChinaTelecomLongdistance(RMB/min)(1.2)(0.8)(1.0)(0.7)

>800km<800kmCCINDUSTRYWILLREACH330-370KSEATSIN2010IllustrationIdentifymajordrivingfactorstoCCadoption- marketcompetitionandserviceawareness- telecomchargesandphonepenetrationQuantifyrelationshipsbetweendriversandCCadoptionhereweusedUSbenchmarkProjectCCdevelopmentbyforecastingdevelopmentofdriversProjectCCpenetrationinmajoruser’sindustries- banking,telecom,insurance…AddupnumbersofeachindustrytogiveaCCmarketoverviewInterviewindustryexpertsorknowledgeableindustrypractitionersfortheiropinionofCCmarketgrowth- systemintegratorsandexperts2004projection(1)(’000seats)1581321452010projection(1)(’000seats)368337N.A.DrivingfactoranalysisBottom-upanalysisExpertsopinions(1)WithoutpagingcompanyTOP-DOWNAPPROACHREVEALSAPROMISINGENDGAMEPhonelineper1000peopleCCagentsper1000peopleUSbenchmarkY=0.00146X+4.79DeflatedtelecomfeeindexPhonelineper1000peopleChinaphonelineYearNon-pagingCCseats(‘000)Source:USTelephoneStatistics;Datamonitor;MIIdata;ChinaStatisticsYearbook1998992000010410REDUCINGTELECOMCHARGESWILLBOOSTFIXED-LINEADOPTIONBackupCompetitionpushesfurthertelecomreductionMostalternativesatleast50%cheaperIP,internetphonecall,“callback”services…Ministrydeterminedtofurtherreducetelecomcharges“Currenttelecomchargestilldoesnotreachitsoptimumstageyet”- MinisterofMIITelecomreductionprojectionPhonepenetrationper1000Deflatedpriceindex(1)Phonelineper1000peopleYear(1)PricedeflatedbyGDPindexSource:ChinaTelecomChargesPolicyBook;BCGanalysisTELECOMISTHEMOSTSIGNIFICANTCCUSERNOW

Bottom-upAnalysisIndustryTelecomMobileBankingInsurancePostserviceManufacturingComputerAirlineSecurityCourierHomeapplianceTVsellingOthersOverallProjectedseatsCAGR200025,0007,6674,5452,0001,6001,5018005942572402403006,67551,419200435,71422,85711,1003,7606,0007,5195,2504,1004,1581,0002,4601,00026,669131,588201041,66750,00047,0009,85020,83325,18414,0009,60032,6003,3338,8002,00071,965336,8322000-049%31%25%17%39%50%60%62%101%43%79%35%41%26%2004-103%14%27%17%23%22%18%15%41%22%24%12%18%17%Source:interviews;onlineresearch;expertsopinions;BCGanalysisEXPERTOPINIONSREVEALAMARKETOF145,000IN2004“Fastdevelopmentisexpectedtocontinueinthenextfiveyears.Ibelievethatcallcentersseatswillgrowat30%ayearforthenextfiveyears(whichmeans145,000in2004)”Director,CTIForum“Comparedto1999,in2000callcenterseatsincreasedby142%,or16,000seats”ChinaComputerNews“Inthenextthreeyears,weprojectthatcallcenterseatswilldouble.It’sourconservativeestimate.”ManagerofBusinessDevelopmentDept,HuaweiSource:BCGinterviewsAGENDAExecutiveSummaryCallCenterBusinessMarketOverviewCCCustomerSegmentationIn-houseusersOutsourcersDemandCustomerEconomicsCompetitionRecommendationsSuccessbusinessmodelPartneringstrategyE-CommerceMarketOverviewTCITianjinCurrentSituationAnalysisRecommendationsCHINACCUSERBASEVERYDIFFERENTFROMU.S.SelectedindustryexplanationTelecomChinatelecomcallcenterinvestmentisstillquitegovernmentdriven.Topromote“189”serviceline,MIIdemandcallcenterateachcity/countylevelManufacturingManufacturingCCusagestillnotwidelyadoptedyet.Moststate-ownedcompaniesareunwillingandunabletoinvestinserviceRemoteshoppingAlthoughremoteshoppingisthebiggestCCuserintheUS,it’smerelythecaseherebecauseofinconvenientpayment,creditanddeliverysystem.Also,shoppingconvenienceinmetropolitanareaandgeneralpoorconsumptionpowermakeremoteshoppingeconomicallyunsoundOthersOutsourcingSecurityTVsellingNews&mediaAirlineComputer/TechManufacturingPostserviceInsuranceBankingMobileFixed-lineTelecomChinaUSOthersOutsourcingTransportHealthcareUtilitiesRemoteshoppingSecuritiesAirlineTechnologyManufacturingInsuranceBankingTelecomOur1.5monthsinterviewshavewellcoveredtheaboveindustriesSource:Datamonitor;Interviews;onlineresearch;expertopinions;BCGanalysisCC三MAR三KET三RO三UGH三LY三SEG三MEN三TED三IN三TO三FOU三RC三ATE三GOR三IESAcc三ord三ing三to三Ar三ea三of三CC三Usa三ge,三an三dW三ill三ing三nes三st三oO三uts三our三ceSel三ect三ed三ind三ust三ry三exa三mpl三esWil三lin三gne三ss三to三out三sou三rceHig三hLowSer三vic三e-o三rie三nte三dOut三sou三rci三ngGen三eri三cs三erv三iceAdm三in-三dri三venSec三uri三tie三sHom三ea三ppl三ian三ceCom三put三er/三tec三hno三log三yCou三rie三rs三erv三icePub三lic三ati三onTV三sel三lin三gMes三sag三ingTra三velSim三ple三or三der三ta三kin三gPag三ingTel三eco三mIns三ura三nceBan三kPos三ts三erv三iceCom三mun三ity三se三rvi三ceUti三lit三yCor三ea三reaNon三-co三re三are三aAre三ao三fC三Cu三sag三eTHR三EE三CRI三TER三IA三TO三DIS三TIN三GUI三SH三COR三EA三ND三NON三-CO三RE三ARE三AInd三ust三ryCor三eA三reaSec三uri三tie三sCou三rie三rs三erv三iceCom三put三er/三tec三hno三log三y“Gre三yA三rea三”Hom三ea三ppl三ian三ceBan三kin三gIns三ura三ncePub三lic三ati三onTel三eco三mTra三vel三ingNon三-co三re三Are三a(三gen三eri三c)Pag三ing三se三rvi三ceMes三sag三ingTV三sel三lin三gUti三lit三iesFun三cti三ona三lit三yTec三hni三cal三as三sis三tan三ceAft三ers三ale三ss三erv三iceCus三tom三er三com三pla三int三se三ttl三eme三ntSou三rci三ng/三sup三pli三er三coo三rdi三nat三ionCus三tom三er三inq三uir三ys三ett三lem三entTel三ema三rke三tin三gMes三sag三ed三eli三ver三ingSim三ple三or三der三ta三kin三gCal三lC三ent三er’三si三mpa三ct三to三ove三ral三lb三usi三nes三s- 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