勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)洞察：生成式AI對(duì)勞動(dòng)力的影響+Labor+Market+Insights：Navigating+the+Workforce+Impact+of+Generative+AI

LaborMarket

Insights

NavigatingtheWorkforceImpactof

GenerativeAI

?2023Gartner,Inc.and/or

isproprietarytoGartner,Inc.

proprietaryorotherwiselegally

materials,

itsaffiliates.Allrightsreserved.GartnerisaregisteredtrademarkofGartner,Inc.oritsaffiliates.Thispresentation,includingallsupporting

and/oritsaffiliatesandisforthesoleinternaluseoftheintendedrecipients.Becausethispresentationmaycontaininformationthatisconfidential,

protected,itmaynotbefurthercopied,distributedorpubliclydisplayedwithouttheexpresswrittenpermissionofGartner,Inc.oritsaffiliates.

GenerativeAItakescenterstageamidmixedmarketconditions.

InJune,asworkforcedemographicsshifted,manyorganizationsdecreasedjobpostings,soughtcost

savingsthroughslowerhiringandrecognizedthevalueofhiringretireestohelpclosesoftskillsgaps.TherewasalsoanincreasedfocusonadoptinggenerativeAIto

avoidfallingbehind.

HeadingintoJulytheinterestingenerativeAIbecomesevenmoreurgent,asamajorityofHRleadersexpectitwillmakeexistingHRactivitiesmoreproductive.HR

leaderscontinuetoforeseeincreasedtalentcompetitionandmorecost-savingmeasuresahead.

Lookingforward,HRleaderswillcontinuetoexplore

generativeAI’susecases,workforceimpact,risk

managementandgovernance.Leadersalsoprojectanincreaseintalentcompetitionandslowerhiringastheirprimarycost-savingmeasure.

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56%

ofHRleaderspredictslowhiringastheir

primarycost-savingmeasure.

42%

ofHRleadersexpectentry-levelindividualcontributorswillbe

significantlyimpactedbygenerativeAI.

72%

ofHRleaders

anticipateusing

generativeAIforHRoperations.

GenerativeAItakescenterstageamidmixedmarketconditions.

44%

oforganizationsreportdecreasedquits.

Readonforthefulldetailsanddatafromthequestionsweasked.

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Source

ThefollowingisasummaryoftheresultsfromGartner’slivepollingwebcaston21June

2023:

Inthewebcast,Gartnerpolled

374HRleadersontheir

assessmentofandresponses

tokeylabormarketissues.

BenchmarkWithGartner:

NavigatingtheWorkforce

ImpactofGenerativeAI

Pollingquestionsaddressed

thelabormarketclimate,as

wellasImpactofGenerativeAI

ontheWorkforce.

4

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SpecialFocus—GenerativeAI’sImpactonSkillsandtheWorkforce

?ThelargestpercentageofHRleaders(76%)expectentry-levelindividualcontributorswillbesignificantlyimpactedbygenerativeAI,

followedbymid-levelindividualcontributors(69%ofHRleaders).

?HRleadersanticipatethatonaverage39%oftheworkforceintheirindustrywillbe

disruptedthroughuseofgenerativeAIinthenext2-5years.

?AmajorityofHRleadersexpectgenerativeAIwillmakeexistingHRactivitiesmore

productive.69%ofHRLeadersexpectadecreaseinHRfunctionheadcountfromGenAIadoption.

SpecialFocus—GoverningandManagingRisksinGenerativeAI

?62%ofHRleadersareengagedin

enterprisewidediscussionsaroundtheuseofGenerativeAI.ITandlegal/compliance

departmentsarethetwomainstakeholders

thatHRleadershaveworkedwithto

understandGenAIanditspotentialusecaseswithintheorganization.

?MostHRleaders(64%)areexpectingtoplayakeyroleinabroadmulti-disciplinaryteamforsettingAIethics(commonprinciples

includeAIbeing:human-centricandsociallybeneficial,fair,explainableandtransparent,secureandsafe,accountableetc.)

SpecialFocus—GenerativeAIImplementationConsiderations

?53%ofHRleadersanticipateusinggenerativeAIforHRoperationsand52%ofHRleadersanticipateusingGenAIforjobdescriptions/skillsdatainthenext6-12months.

?Whileonly5%havefullyimplementedgenerativeAIsolutions,anadditional76%areactivelyexploringthem.

?OneinfourHRleadersindicatethattheirteammembersalreadyuseGenAIforworkactivities.

LaborMarketOutlook—SummaryforJuly2023

LaborMarketClimate—Talent-BasedLeadingIndicatorsofEconomicConditions

Labormarketclimateindicatorscontinuetosendmixedmessagesonthethetightnessoftoday’smarket,sobusinessleadersshouldstillbecautiousaboutchangingtheirassumptionsaboutmarketconditionsinfavorofcooling.Furthermore,HRleaderscontinuetoproject

increasedtalentcompetitionandconservativecost-savingmeasures,withtheexceptionofprojectedlayoffsincreasingnowacrosstwo

consecutivemonths.

?Now44%oforganizationsreportdecreasedquits,placingthis

indicatornowonadownwardtrendthatwouldindicatemarket

cooling.However,priorindicatorsofcooling(thefour-month

declineinincreasedjobpostingsandlastmonth’sjumpin

contingentworkers)reversedthismonth.Now33%oforganizationsnowreportincreasedjobpostings,upfrom26%lastmonthand

28%themonthprior.Andthepercentageoforganizationsreportingincreasedcontingentworkerscontinuestooscillate(21%this

monthfrom26%lastmonthand28%themonthprior).

?Lookingforward,HRleaderscontinuetoprojectanincreasein

talentcompetition(60%,upfrom58%lastmonth,and54%the

monthprior)andtheycontinuetoprojectslowinghiringastheirprimarycost-savingmeasure(49%).However,businessleadersshouldwatchthreenotableexceptions.Thepopularityofslowinghiring(now49%)hasdeclinedsignificantlyfromlastmonth

(68%),andfreezinghiringforroles(33%)andlayoffs(27%)areincreasinglyHRleadersprojectedkeycost-savingmeasures.

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100%

50%

0%

Sustainedreductioninincreasedquits

PercentageofHRleaders

32%36%36%

44%

39%35%

37%

40%

24%

28%30%

20%

MarAprMayJun

IncreasedNoChangeDecreased

n=156(June2023),92(May2023),101(April2023),102(March2023)

Question:Howhasyourorganization'squitratechangedthismonthcomparedtotheaverageofthelastthreemonths?(Selectone)

Source:BenchmarkWithGartner:SpecialEdition—NavigatingtheWorkforceImpactofGenerativeAI(21June),BenchmarkWithGartner:EmergingIssues,LocalizedReturn-to-OfficeandGenerativeAI(31May),

BenchmarkWithGartner:EmergingIssues,SkillsGapsandTalentCompetition(26April),BenchmarkWithGartner:PersistentTalentShortages,SustainingDEIandOtherEmergingIssues(22March)

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Sustainedreductioninincreasedjobpostingsends

PercentageofHRleaders

60%

30%

0%

52%

41%

37%

47%

44%

35%

28%

45%

33%

26%

22%

22%

22%

28%

18%

FebMarAprMayJun

IncreasedNoChangeDecreased

n=166(June2023),95(May2023),116(April2023),122(March2023),105(February2023)

Question:Howhaveyourorganization'sjobpostingschangedthismonthcomparedtotheaverageofthelastthreemonths?(Selectone)

Source:BenchmarkWithGartner:SpecialEdition—NavigatingtheWorkforceImpactofGenerativeAI(21June),BenchmarkWithGartner:EmergingIssues,LocalizedReturn-to-OfficeandGenerativeAI(31May),

BenchmarkWithGartner:EmergingIssues,SkillsGapsandTalentCompetition(26April),BenchmarkWithGartner:PersistentTalentShortages,SustainingDEIandOtherEmergingIssues(22March)

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60%

60%

55%

49%

50%

29%

29%

21%

30%

27%

23%

17%

16%

23%

0%

MarAprMayJun

IncreasedNoChangeDecreased

Contingentworkerlevelscontinuetopivot

PercentageofHRleaders

n=160(June2023),81(May2023),102(April2023),88(March2023)

Question:Howhasyourorganization'slevelofcontingentworkerschangedthismonthcomparedtotheaverageofthelastthreemonths?(Selectone)

Source:BenchmarkWithGartner:SpecialEdition—NavigatingtheWorkforceImpactofGenerativeAI(21June),BenchmarkWithGartner:EmergingIssues,LocalizedReturn-to-OfficeandGenerativeAI(31May),

BenchmarkWithGartner:EmergingIssues,SkillsGapsandTalentCompetition(26April),BenchmarkWithGartner:PersistentTalentShortages,SustainingDEIandOtherEmergingIssues(22March)

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100%

50%

0%

Organizationsstillexpectmoretalentcompetition

PercentageofHRleaders

17%

17%

18%

15%

30%

29%

25%

25%

53%

54%

57%

59%

Mar

Apr

MoreCompetitive

NoChange

MayJun

LessCompetitive

n=143(June2023),99(May2023),112(April2023),104(March2023)

Question:Howdoyouexpecttalentcompetitiontochangeinthenextthreemonths?(Selectone)

Source:BenchmarkWithGartner:SpecialEdition—NavigatingtheWorkforceImpactofGenerativeAI(21June),BenchmarkWithGartner:EmergingIssues,LocalizedReturn-to-OfficeandGenerativeAI(31May),

BenchmarkWithGartner:EmergingIssues,SkillsGapsandTalentCompetition(26April),BenchmarkWithGartner:PersistentTalentShortages,SustainingDEIandOtherEmergingIssues(22March)

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68%

Hikeinanticipatedlayoffscontinues

PercentageofHRleaders

70%

35%

0%

51%

47%

42%

49%

FebMarAprMayJun

Slowhiringforroles

Layoffemployees

DecreaseoverallHRbudget

Decreaserecruitingbudget

Freezehiringforroles

Wedonotanticipatetakinganycost-savingssteps

n=138(June2023),87(May2023),119(April2023),104(March2023),101(February2023)

Question:Whichofthefollowingtalentcost-savingmeasuresdoyouANTICIPATEyourorganizationtakinginthenextthreemonths?(Selectallthatapply)

Source:BenchmarkWithGartner:SpecialEdition—NavigatingtheWorkforceImpactofGenerativeAI(21June),BenchmarkWithGartner:EmergingIssues,LocalizedReturn-to-OfficeandGenerativeAI(31May),

BenchmarkWithGartner:EmergingIssues,SkillsGapsandTalentCompetition(26April),BenchmarkWithGartner:PersistentTalentShortages,SustainingDEIandOtherEmergingIssues(22March),Benchmark

WithGartner:FairPay,Well-BeingandOtherEmergingIssues(22February)

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GenerativeAI

Impactonskillsandtheworkforce,governing

andmanagingrisksingenerativeai,and

implementationconsiderations

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WhatisgenerativeAI(GenAI)?

GenerativeAI—GartnerDefinitionsandPositioning

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Source:GartnerAnalysis.

Economics

ItisestimatedthatrunningChatGPTcostsUS$3

millionpermonth,butitisavailableforthemasses.

SocialAcceptance

ChatGPToffersimmediatebenefit,withlittleeffort.

Ithelpspeoplewrite

speeches,studentswritingessays,andprofessionalswritestrategies.

WhywasChatGPTsoimpactful?

Technology

GPT-4hasanunparalleledestimatedonetrillion

parameters.Accuracyis

stilllimitedto70%-80%,

butsubstantiallyimprovedfrompreviousmodels.

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GenerativeAI’s

ImpactonSkillsand

theWorkforce

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29%

GreatestGenAIimpactonindividualcontributors

PercentageofHRleaders

EntryLevel(IndividualContributor)MidLevel(IndividualContributor)

Expert(IndividualContributor)

MiddleManager LineManagerSeniorManager

ExecutiveLevel

NojoblevelswillbeimpactedbyGenAI

Other

69%

37%

23%

17%

7%

1%

3%

76%

0%

40%

80%

n=194(June2023)

Question:Whichjoblevel(s)withinyourorganizationdoyouthinkwillbemostimpactedbyGenAI?(Selectallthatapply)

Source:BenchmarkWithGartner:SpecialEdition—NavigatingtheWorkforceImpactofGenerativeAI(21June)

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HRexpects39%GenAIimpactonworkforce

PercentageofHRleaders

1-20%disrupted

21-40%disrupted

41-60%disrupted

61-80%disrupted

81-100%disrupted

Idon'tforeseeanydisruption

31%

27%

17%

WeightedaverageofGenAIworkforcedisruptionat39.1%

12%

2%

11%

0%

40%

20%

n=189(June2023)

Question:Inthenext2to5years,whatpercentageoftheworkforceinyourindustryisgoingtobedisrupted(changeinwayofworkingand/orjobsimpacted)throughtheuseofGenAI?(Selectone)

Source:BenchmarkWithGartner:SpecialEdition—NavigatingtheWorkforceImpactofGenerativeAI(21June)

Theaverageworkforcedisruptionwascomputedusingtheweightedaverageofthemid-pointofeachoption’sinterval(i.e.,10.5%wasusedasthemid-pointforthe1-20%option,and0%wasused

forthe“Idon’tforeseeanydisruption”option),withthepercentageofleadersselectingeachoptionastheweights.

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63%

HRexpectstobecomemoreproductivewithGenAI

PercentageofHRleaders

GenAIwillmakeexistingHRactivitiesmoreproductive

GenAIwilleliminateredundantactivitiesforHR

GenAIwillcreatenewactivitiesforHR

GenAIwilleliminatefewroleswithintheHR

GenAIwillcreateradicallynewroleswithinHR

GenAIwillmakeexistingHRactivitieslessproductive

Other

57%

41%

33%

2%

2%

84%

0%

45%

90%

n=177(June2023)

Question:Whichstatement(s)doyouagreewithmostregardingtheimpactthatGenAIwillhaveonHRroles?(Selectallthatapply)

Source:BenchmarkWithGartner:SpecialEdition—NavigatingtheWorkforceImpactofGenerativeAI(21June)

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HRleadersseeHRheadcounttodropwithGenAI

PercentageofHRleaders

Increasedbymorethan10%

Increaseby1-10%

Nochangei.e.0%

Decreaseby1-10%

Decreasedbymorethan10%

1%

3%

28%

24%

0%

25%

Weightedaverageof

changeinHRheadcountfromGenAIat-6.7%

69%ofHRLeadersexpectdecreasein

HRfunction

headcountwith

GenAIadoption.

45%

50%

n=168(June2023)

Question:HowwillyourHRfunctionheadcountchangeduetotheadoptionofGenAI?(Selectone)

Source:BenchmarkWithGartner:SpecialEdition—NavigatingtheWorkforceImpactofGenerativeAI(21June)

Theaverageheadcountchangewascomputedusingweightedaverageofthemid-pointofeachoption’sinterval(i.e.,5.5%wasusedforthe“Increaseby1-10%”option)fromtheoriginalquestionbefore

thegroupswerecombinedforthischart(11-20%,21-30%,andmorethan30%werecombinedintomorethan10%forthischart)withthepercentageofleadersselectingeachoptionastheweights.

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Governingand

ManagingRisksinGenerativeAI

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62%ofHRLeadersareengagingin

enterprisewide

discussionsontheusageofGenAI

Highlyengaged:meetingregularlywithbusiness/technologyexecutives

Somewhatengaged:receiving/reviewingregularupdates

40%

Notengaged:awareofenterpriseconversations,butnotparticipating

Notaware:unawareofconversationsaboutinvestinginGenAI

Other

Only22%HRleadershighlyengagedinGenAIdiscussions

PercentageofHRleaders

22%

22%

16%

1%

0%

n=167(June2023)

Question:AsanHRLeader,howengagedareyouinenterprisewidediscussionsaroundtheuseofGenAI?(Selectone)

Source:BenchmarkWithGartner:SpecialEdition—NavigatingtheWorkforceImpactofGenerativeAI(21June)

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50%

25%

Keycontributorinabroadmulti-disciplinaryteam

Leaderonenterprise-wideAIethicsapproach

Influencerthroughinformalconversationsorfeedback

LeaderonAIethicsapproachbutonlyontalentrelatedtopics

Consumerofwhatothersdecide,applyingittotalentdomains

HRshouldnotplayaroleinAIethics

Other

64%

HRleadersexpecttoplaykeyroleinAIethics

PercentageofHRleaders

35%

33%

26%

14%

2%

2%

0%

35%

70%

n=133(June2023)

Question:Whatrole(s)shouldHRplayinsettingAIethics(commonprinciplesincludeAIbeing:human-centricandsociallybeneficial,fair,explainableandtransparent,secureandsafe,accountableetc.)?(Selectallthatapply)

Source:BenchmarkWithGartner:SpecialEdition—NavigatingtheWorkforceImpactofGenerativeAI(21June)

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HRleadersconsultwithIT&LegalonGenAI

PercentageofHRleaders

ITdepartment

Legal/Compliancedepartment

OtherHRleaders

DataScience/Analytics/AIteamExecutiveLeadership/C-Suite

Digitalworkplaceteam

Externalsubjectmatterexperts/consultants

MyHRtechnologyvendors/serviceprovidersIhaven'tworkedwithanyotherstakeholdersonthis

Other

45%

37%

36%

29%

27%

25%

21%

14%

2%

58%

0%

30%

60%

n=132(June2023)

Question:Whichotherstakeholder(s)haveyouworkedwithtounderstandwhatGenAIisanditspotentialusecaseswithinyourorganization?(Selectallthatapply)

Source:BenchmarkWithGartner:SpecialEdition—NavigatingtheWorkforceImpactofGenerativeAI(21June)

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ImplementationConsiderations

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42%

42%

HRoperationsandrecruitingprioritizedGenAIusecases

PercentageofHRleaders

Administrativetasks/policies/documentgeneration(HROperations)

Jobdescription/skillsdata(Recruiting)

Employeefacingchatbot(HRServiceDelivery)

Searchforcontent(Learning) Marketing/emailcommunications/candidatefacingchatbot(Recruiting) Compilinginterviewquestions/summarizinginterviews(Recruiting) Generatecontent/quizzes/comprehensionquestions(Learning)Developingpersonalizedcareerdevelopmentplans(TalentManagement)

Employeefeedback(PerformanceManagement)

WedonotplanonusingGenAIforanyoftheseusecases

53%

52%

51%

31%

30%

27%

14%

7%

0%

30%

60%

n=132(June2023)

Question:Inthenext6-12months,whichprioritizedusecasesdoesyourorganizationplanonusingGenAIfor?(Pleaseselectuptothree)

Source:BenchmarkWithGartner:SpecialEdition—NavigatingtheWorkforceImpactofGenerativeAI(21June)

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58%

Legal/EthicalriskstopfactorinadoptingGenAI

PercentageofHRleaders

Legal/ethicalconsiderationsforadoptingGenAIPotentialrisksthatmayarisebyadoptingGenAI

Impactonprocessworkflows

Ongoinggovernance

PotentialrisksthatmayarisebyNOTadoptingGenAI

Impactoncurrent/futureemployeeskills

Howquicklytechnologyvendorsareintegratingitintotheirsolutions

Impactonorganizationalculture

CostimplicationsofadoptingGenAI

Noneofthesearecriticaldeterminants

42%

42%

36%

34%

27%

22%

18%

1%

65%

0%

35%

70%

n=109(June2023)

Question:PleaseselectthetopthreemostcriticaldeterminantsforyourorganizationindecidingwhethertoadoptGenAI?(Pleaseselectthetopthree)

Source:BenchmarkWithGartner:SpecialEdition—NavigatingtheWorkforceImpactofGenerativeAI(21June)

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5%

5%

9%

10%

14%

2%

3%

16%ofHRLeadersarenotplanningtouse

GenAInoworinfuture

MajorityofHRleadersexploringGenAI

PercentageofHRleaders

81%ofHRLeaders

have

implementedorexploring

GenAI

solutions

52%

Alreadyimplemented

Alreadyplanningimplementation

Conductingpilots/proofofconcepts

Exploringpotentialusecases/opportunities

EvaluatingdifferentGenAIsolutions

Notplanningtocurrentlyuse

Notplanningtouseinthefuture

Other

0%

35%

70%

n=105(June2023)

Question:HowfaralongareyouinplanningandpreparationforGenAIimplementation?(Selectone)

Source:BenchmarkWithGartner:SpecialEdition—NavigatingtheWorkforceImpactofGenerativeAI(21June)

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1in4HRteammembersuseGenAIoften

PercentageofHRleaders

Always:thereareHRteammembersusingthesetoolsmultipletimesadayaspartofcoreworkactivities

Usually:afewtimesaweektoonceaday

Rarely:afewtimestoinformpolicies,insupportoftechnologystrategyplanning,ortotestcapabilities

Never:thisserviceisnotaccessibletoHRteammembers

Unsure:HRteammembersmaybeusingitwithoutHRLTknowledge

Other

24%ofHR

Leaderssuggest

thattheirteam

membersleverageGenAIforwork

activities

23%

26%

26%

2%

19%

5%

0%

30%

15%

n=109(June2023)

Question:HowfrequentlydoyourHRteammembersuseGenAItoolstoconductworkactivities?(eg.generatedocuments,answerstoquestions,summarizecontent,generateemailcommunications,etc.)?(Selectone)

Source:BenchmarkWithGartner:SpecialEdition—NavigatingtheWorkforceImpactofGenerativeAI(21June)

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Appendix

LaborMarketClimate(DetailedView)

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Sustainedreductioninincreasedquits

PercentageofHRleaders

Increasedbymorethan10%

Increasedby1-9%

NoChange

Decreasedby1-9%

Decreasedbymorethan10%

5.8%

2%

5%

14.1%

22%

25%

36.5%

35%

33.3%

30%30%

10.3%

5%

6%

Weightedaverageofchangeinquitrateat1%

40%

0%25%50%

Jun-23May-23Apr-23

n=156(June2023),92(May2023),101(April2023)

Question:Howhasyourorganization'squitratechangedthismonthcomparedtotheaverageofthelastthreemonths?(Selectone)

Source:BenchmarkWithGartner:SpecialEdition—NavigatingtheWorkforceImpactofGenerativeAI(21June),BenchmarkWithGartner:PersistentTalentShortages,SustainingDEIandOther

EmergingIssues(31May),BenchmarkWithGartner:PersistentTalentShortages,SustainingDEIandOtherEmergingIssues(26April)

Theaveragechangeinquitratewascomputedusingweightedaverageofthemid-pointofeachoption’sinterval(i.e.,5%wasusedforthe“Increaseby1-9%”option)fromtheoriginalquestion

beforethegroupswerecombinedforthischart(10-19%andmorethan20%werecombinedintomorethan10%forthischart)withthepercentageofleadersselectingeachoptionastheweights.

29

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Contingentworkerlevelscontinuetopivot

PercentageofHRleaders

Increasedbymorethan10%

Increasedby1-9%

NoChange

Decreasedby1-9%

Decreasedbymorethan10%

Weightedaverageofchangeincontingentworkersat1.7%

25%

15%

50%49%

55%

20%

11%

19%

9%

12%

11%

3%

2%1%

19%

0%30%60%

Jun-23May-23Apr-23

n=160(June2023),81(May2023),102(April2023)

Question:Howhasyourorganization'slevelofcontingentworkerschangedthismonthcomparedtotheaverageofthelastthreemonths?(Selectone)

Source:BenchmarkWithGartner:SpecialEdition—NavigatingtheWorkforceImpactofGenerativeAI(21June),BenchmarkWithGartner:PersistentTalentShortages,SustainingDEIandOther

EmergingIssues(31May),BenchmarkWithGartner:PersistentTalentShortages,SustainingDEIandOtherEmergingIssues(26April)

Theaveragechangeincontingentworkerswascomputedusingweightedaverageofthe