商務(wù)英語文章（帶中文翻譯）5則范文

商務(wù)英語文章（帶中文翻譯）5則范文第一篇：商務(wù)英語文章(帶中文翻譯)（一）WorldeconomyThejobscrisis失業(yè)危機It’scoming,whatevergovernmentsdo;buttheycanmakeitbetterorworse不論政府如何努力，失業(yè)危機已經(jīng)到來。不過政府可以在這場危機中起到關(guān)鍵作用IllustrationbyBelleMellorNOTHINGevokesthemiseryofmassunemploymentmorethanthephotographsoftheDepression.Youcanseeitinthedrawnfacesofthemen,intheirshabbyclothes,intheireyes.Theirdespairspawnedpoliticalextremismthatleftastainonsociety;butitalsotaughtsubsequentgenerationsthatpublicpolicyhasavitalpartinalleviatingthesufferingofthosewhocannotgetwork.Thankstowelfareschemesandunemploymentbenefits,manyofwhichhavetheiroriginsinthosedarkdays,joblessnessnolongerplungespeopleintodestitution,atleastinthedevelopedworld.再沒有什么比關(guān)于經(jīng)濟大蕭條的照片更能讓人體會大量失業(yè)的痛苦。這種痛苦顯見于人們緊繃的面容，襤褸的衣衫，還有他們的眼神。由人們的絕望所引發(fā)的政治極端主義給社會留下污點；失業(yè)問題也使后人懂得公共政策在減輕失業(yè)痛苦方面所起到的重要作用。很多福利計劃和失業(yè)救濟金方案都發(fā)軔于那些灰暗的失業(yè)時期；受惠于這些計劃，至少發(fā)達國家的人們不再因為失業(yè)而陷入窮困。Noteventhegloomiestpredictthattoday’sslumpwillapproachtheseverityoftheDepression,whichshrankAmerica’seconomybymorethanaquarter,andputaquarteroftheworking-agepopulationoutofajob.Butwiththeworldinitsdeepestrecessionsincethe1930sandglobaltradeshrinkingatitsfastestpacein80years,themiseryofmassunemploymentloomsnonetheless,andraisesthebigquestionposedintheDepression:whatshouldgovernmentsdo?即使是最悲觀的預計都不認為眼下的衰退會接近大蕭條的程度，后者使美國經(jīng)濟縮水四分之一，四分之一的就業(yè)人口失去工作。但隨著世界經(jīng)濟出現(xiàn)自1930年代以來的最大幅度衰退以及全球貿(mào)易80年來的最快速萎縮，大規(guī)模失業(yè)的惡魘再度凸顯，并且拋出了和大蕭條時期一樣的大問題：政府應該做些什么？Jointhequeue加入失業(yè)隊伍IntherichworldthejoblossesarestarkestinAmerica,wheretherecessionbegan.Itsflexiblelabourmarkethasshed4.4mjobssincethedownturnbeganinDecember2007,includingmorethan600,000ineachofthepastthreemonths.Theunemploymentratejumpedto8.1%inFebruary,thehighestinaquarter-century.AnAmericanwholoseshisjobtodayhaslessofachanceoffindinganotheronethanatanytimesincerecordsbeganhalfacenturyago.Thatisespeciallyworryingwhenthefinancesofmanyhouseholdshavecometodependontwofullincomes.富裕國家的失業(yè)問題在衰退肇始的美國最為顯著。自從07年12月經(jīng)濟陷入低迷以來，美國靈活的勞動力市場已經(jīng)溢出了440萬份失業(yè)，其中在過去三個月內(nèi)每月產(chǎn)生了60萬份。二月的失業(yè)率躍升至8.1%，是25年來的最高數(shù)字。比起有紀錄的半個世紀內(nèi)的任何時期，眼下失業(yè)的美國人更難再找到一份工作。特別是當很多家庭的財政依靠雙職工收入的時候，這種情況尤其令人堪憂。ButitisalreadyclearthatunemploymentwillstrikehardfarbeyondAmericaandBritain.InJapanoutputisplungingfasterthaninotherricheconomies.Althoughunemploymentislow,rapidjoblossesamongJapan’sarmyoftemporaryworkersareexposingtheunfairnessofatwo-tierlabourmarketandstraininganegalitariansociety.然而顯而易見的是，失業(yè)問題的沉重打擊遠不止于美國和英國。日本的生產(chǎn)量比其他富裕經(jīng)濟體下降得更快。盡管失業(yè)率尚低，但臨時工當中快速增長的失業(yè)大軍顯示了“雙層勞工市場”的不公平性，加劇了一個平等社會中的緊張。InEuropejoblessnesshasgrownfastestinplacessuchasSpainandIreland,wherebuildingboomshavecrashed,buthasonlybeguntoedgeupelsewhere.TheunemploymentratesinmanyEuropeancountriesarebelowAmerica’s,butthatmaybebecausetheirmorerigidlabourmarketsadjustmoreslowlytofallingdemand.GivenhowfastEuropeaneconomiesareshrinking,nobodydoubtsthatworseliesahead.Bytheendof2010,unemploymentinmuchoftherichworldislikelytobeabove10%.在歐洲，建筑業(yè)熱潮遭遇重創(chuàng)的西班牙和愛爾蘭等國失業(yè)速度增長最快，而在其他地方則初現(xiàn)端倪。很多歐洲國家的失業(yè)率都低于美國，但也許這只是因為它們有更加嚴格的勞工市場，從而對下降的市場需求適應更慢。面對著快速萎縮的歐洲經(jīng)濟，沒有人會懷疑更糟糕的就業(yè)局面就在眼前。到2010年底，多數(shù)富裕國家的失業(yè)率可能會超過10%。Intheemergingworldthepatternwillbedifferent,buttheoutcomemorepainful.Astradeshrinks,millionsofworkersarelosingtheirfootholdonthebottomrungsoftheglobalsupplychain.Povertywillriseastheysinkintoinformalworkormovebacktotheland.TheWorldBankexpectssome53mpeopletofallbelowthelevelofextremepovertythisyear.發(fā)展中國家的情況就不一樣了，只不過結(jié)果會更人頭疼。隨著貿(mào)易萎縮，數(shù)以百萬計的工人正失去他們在全球供應鏈條底端的立錐之地。他們轉(zhuǎn)向非正式工作或者回到農(nóng)村，伴隨而來的是貧困問題的抬頭。世界銀行預計，今年將有約5300萬人降到極端貧困線以下。Politicsdictatesthatgovernmentsmustinterveneenergeticallytohelp.That’spartlybecausecapitalhastakensuchalargeshareofprofitsforsomanyyearsthatthependulumisboundtoswingbackandpartlybecause,havingjustgiventrillionsofdollarstothebanks,politicianswillbeunderpressuretoputvastamountsofmoneyintosavingjobs.Buthelpcannotbemeasuredindollarsalone.Badlydesignedpoliciescanbeself-defeating.Aftertherecessionsofthe1970sandearly1980s,Europe’srigidlabour-marketskeptunemploymenthighfordecades.政治上，政府必須全力介入進行援助。這一方面是因為多年以來資本在利潤中占去了很大份額，重心注定要返回；另一方面是因為給了銀行萬億計美元的當政者們承擔著巨大的壓力，需要大量注資來挽救就業(yè)崗位。然而挽救不能僅以美元來衡量。錯誤的決策反倒會弄巧成拙。自1970年代和1980年代初期的經(jīng)濟衰退以來，歐洲缺乏靈活度的勞動力市場就使失業(yè)率幾十年來居高不下。Governmentsarepilinginwithshort-termhelpforworkers.InAmerica,whichhasoneofthelowestsocialsafetynetsintherichworld,extendingunemploymentbenefitswas,rightly,partoftherecentstimuluspackage.Japanisgivingsocialassistanceto“nonregular”workers,agroupthathaslongbeenignored.Ingeneral,however,itmakesmoresensetopaycompaniestokeeppeopleinworkthantosubsidiseunemployment.Manycountriesaretoppinguptheearningsofworkersonshortenedweeksorforcedleave.各國政府正為勞動者提供大量的短期援助。美國的社會保障體系在富裕國家中處于最低，而最近出臺的經(jīng)濟刺激計劃中，擴大失業(yè)救濟金惠及面恰恰是計劃中的一部分。日本為長期以來受忽視的“非固定”勞動者群體提供社會援助。不過總的來說，比起失業(yè)補助，資助企業(yè)以留住員工才是明智之舉。很多國家通過縮短每周工作日或強制休假來滿足勞工薪資。Thesearesensiblemeasures,solongastheyaretime-limited;for,intheshortterm,governmentsneedtodoalltheycantosustaindemand.Butthejobscrisis,alas,isunlikelytobeshort-lived.Eveniftherecessionendssoon(andthereislittlesignofthathappening),theassetbustandtheexcessiveborrowingthatledtoitarelikelytoovershadowtheworldeconomyformanyyearstocome.Moreover,manyofyesterday’sjobs,fromSpanishbricklayertoWallStreettrader,arenotcomingback.Peoplewillhavetoshiftoutofoldoccupationsandintonewones.這些措施在一定時限內(nèi)是合理的：因為在短期內(nèi)，政府需要盡全力維持需求。只是哎呀，就業(yè)危機不大可能只在短期內(nèi)存在。即便經(jīng)濟衰退很快結(jié)束（而且?guī)缀醪豢赡馨l(fā)生），引起這場危機的陰云——資金短缺和過度借貸——將在接下來繼續(xù)籠罩世界經(jīng)濟長達數(shù)年。更有甚者，不論是西班牙的砌磚匠還是華爾街的交易員，很多昔日的就業(yè)崗位會一去不復返。人們將被迫告別現(xiàn)有職位，轉(zhuǎn)行進入新崗位。Adifficultdance艱難的舞步Overthenextcoupleofyears,politicianswillhavetoperformadifficultpolicyU-turn;for,inthelongterm,theyneedflexiblelabourmarkets.Thatwillmeanabolishingjob-subsidyprogrammes,takingawayprotectedworkers’privilegesandmakingiteasierforbusinessestorestructurebylayingpeopleoff.CountriessuchasJapan,withtwo-tierworkforcesinwhichanarmyoftemporaryworkerswithfewprotectionstoilalongsidemollycoddledfolkwithmany,willneedtonarrowthatdisparitybymakingthelattereasiertofire.在接下來的幾年中，政治家們不得不做出一個180度的艱難政策轉(zhuǎn)變：因為從長遠來看，他們需要一個靈活的勞動力市場。這意味著廢除工作補貼計劃，去除受保護勞工的特權(quán)，以及幫助企業(yè)更方便地裁員從而進行重組。像日本這樣具有雙層勞動力結(jié)構(gòu)的國家，大量埋頭苦干的臨時勞工缺乏就業(yè)保障，而被嬌生慣養(yǎng)的上層員工卻能享受到多重保護。這種差別需要通過嚴格上層員工的裁汰制度加以消除。Theeuphemismforthatis“flexibility”.Thebaretruthisthatthemoreeasilyjobscanbedestroyed,themoreeasilynewonescanbecreated.Theprogrammesthathelptoday,bykeepingpeopleinexistingjobs,willtomorrowbecomeadragonthegreatadjustmentthatliesahead.Astimegoesby,spendingonkeepingpeopleinoldjobswillneedtobecut,andreplacedwithspendingontrainingthemfornewones.Governmentswillhavetoswitchfrompoliciestosupportdemandtopoliciestomaketheirlabourmarketsmoreflexible.Thatisgoingtorequirefancypoliticalfootwork;butpoliticianswillhavetoperformthosesteps,becauseiftheyfailto,theywillstiflegrowth.這些措施可以委婉地概括為“靈活性”措施。更直白的事實是，現(xiàn)有工作越容易被廢棄，新工作就越容易被創(chuàng)造。眼下這些保住人們飯碗的援助計劃會在今后成為調(diào)整適應今后形勢的拖累。隨著時間推移，用在保留人員舊崗位的指出需要削減，取而代之的是為新崗位培養(yǎng)勞動者的開支。各國政府需要從支持需求的政策轉(zhuǎn)變?yōu)榻ㄔO(shè)一個更靈活的勞動力市場。這種轉(zhuǎn)變需要富有想象力的政治謀劃，但確實當政者們必須完成的步驟：因為如果他們不這樣做，增長將被遏制。Howeverwellgovernmentsdesigntheirpolicies,unemploymentisgoingtorisesharply,forsometime.Atbestitwillblightmillionsoflivesforyears.Thepoliticians’taskistomakesurethemiseryisnotmeasuredindecades.然而，不論政府政策制定的多么完美，失業(yè)率在一段時間內(nèi)仍將陡增。不過充其量它會在幾年內(nèi)讓數(shù)百萬人的生計陷于困境。當政者的任務(wù)是不要讓這場不幸延續(xù)數(shù)十年。（二）China'stradeSurplustorequirements順差的需要WhyisChina’stradesurplusgrowingwhenitsexportshavecollapsed?為什么中國的出口大幅下降時，貿(mào)易順差卻在增長？THISweekrevisedfiguresrevealedthatChinaovertookGermanyin2007tobecometheworld’sthird-biggesteconomy.AtthestartoflastyearChinaalsolookedsettobecometheworld’sbiggestexporter,butaslumpinexportsinthefinalmonthsoftheyearmeanttheyremainedsmallerthanGermany’s.China’sexportstumbledby13%(indollarterms)inthefourthquarter,leavingthem3%lowerinDecemberthanayearearlier.Despitethis,China’stradesurplusrosetoarecord$457billionatanannualrateinthefourthquarter—50%biggerthaninthesameperiodof2007.Whatisgoingon?本周，修正后的數(shù)字顯示中國在2007年已經(jīng)超越德國成為世界第三大經(jīng)濟體。在去年初，中國也目標成為世界上最大的出口國，但是年末數(shù)月出口的大幅下落意味著他們?nèi)匀慌旁诘聡?。按照美元來計算，中國的出口額在第四季度下降了13%，比一年前同期少了3%。盡管如此，中國的貿(mào)易順差在第四季度卻以全年增速上升到創(chuàng)紀錄的4570億美元，比2007年同期增長了50%。這其中到底有何玄機？Inthefirsthalfof2008China’stradesurplusdidindeedshrink(seechart).Butsincethen,althoughexportsslumped,importsfellbymuchmore—downby21%inthe12monthstoDecember.Theslideinbothexportsandimportswasexacerbatedbytheglobalcreditfreeze,whichhasmadeitharderforcompaniesaroundtheworldtogetlettersofcredittoguaranteepayment.Importswerealsodraggeddownbycheaperoilandcommodityprices,andbyweakerimportsofmaterialsandcomponentsusedtomakeexports(over50%oftotalimports).2008年上半年，中國的貿(mào)易順差確實出現(xiàn)了縮水（見表）。但是自那以后，盡管出口大跌，但是進口跌的更慘——到12月時，12個月內(nèi)下跌了21%。進出口雙雙下滑由于受到全球信貸停滯影響而加劇。這是因為信用凍結(jié)導致全世界的公司更加難以獲得信用證從而保證支付。出口同樣也受到拖累，其下跌主要是由于更廉價的原油和商品價格，以及原材料和用于出口產(chǎn)品的部件進口（占到進口總量的50%以上）表現(xiàn)疲軟。ButamoreworryingreasonwhyChinaboughtlessfromtherestoftheworldisthatitsdomesticdemandhasweakened.Consumerspendingandmanufacturinginvestmenthavesofarheldupreasonablywell,butconstruction—abiguserofimportedrawmaterials—hascollapsed.但是關(guān)于中國進口下降的一個更令人憂慮的原因是：中國的國內(nèi)需求減小。消費支出和生產(chǎn)投資目前的收縮尚且適當，但是建筑業(yè)作為進口原材料的使用大戶也出現(xiàn)了急劇下滑。Withmostoftheworldinrecession,China’sexportswillcontinuetoslidethisyear.Nomuraforecastsadropof6%—thefirstannualdeclineformorethan25years.Imports,ontheotherhand,areexpectedtoincrease.Bymid-year,thegovernment’splannedmassiveincreaseininfrastructurespendingwillboostimportsofrawmaterialsandmachinery.Ifso,China’stradesurpluswillshrinkin2009.隨著全球大部分地區(qū)陷入衰退，中國的出口今年將繼續(xù)下滑。野村證券預測的下滑是6%，為25年來的首次下滑。另一方面，進口預計將增長。到年中時，政府計劃的基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施投入大幅增長將會推動原材料和機械進口。這樣的話，中國2009年的貿(mào)易順差將會縮水。ThecollapseinexportsandtheconsequentjoblossesinsouthernChinahavetriggeredspeculationthatthegovernmentmighttrytopushdownthevalueoftheyuan.ButnotonlywouldthisprovokeaprotectionistbacklashfromAmerica’snewgovernment,itwouldalsodolittletohelpproducers.China’sproblemisweakforeigndemand,notcompetitiveness.ThebestwayforChinatosupportitseconomy—andtohelpunwindglobaltradeimbalances—istobolsterdomesticdemand.出口劇減加上隨之而來的中國南方的失業(yè)會導致政府考慮人民幣貶值。但這將不僅激起美國新政府的保護主義反彈，對生產(chǎn)者也幫助甚小。中國的問題是在于疲軟的國外需求，而不是競爭力。支持中國經(jīng)濟乃至幫助全球貿(mào)易擺脫不平衡的方法，是加強內(nèi)需。Onepieceofgoodnewsthisweekisthat,followinginterest-ratecutsandthegovernment’sscrappingofcreditrestrictions,totalbankloansjumpedby19%inthe12monthstoDecember,upfromgrowthof14%lastsummer.Chinaisperhapstheonlybigeconomywherecreditgrowthhasheatedupinrecentmonths.Ifthatissustained,itcouldhelptoboostdomesticspending.本周的一個好消息是：隨著減息和政府去除信貸限制，銀行信貸總額到12月的12個月中從去年夏天的14%猛增19%。中國也許是最近幾個月內(nèi)世界大經(jīng)濟體中唯一出現(xiàn)信貸增長加速的地方。如果增速持續(xù)，它將促進內(nèi)需支出。Chinacertainlycannotrelyonexportsanymore.Becomingtheworld’sbiggestexporterwillbeoflittlecomfortifglobaltradeisspirallingdownwards.中國決不能再依賴出口。如果全球貿(mào)易持續(xù)下降，成為世界最大的出口國亦將無益。（三）China'sstimulusGotalight?經(jīng)濟復蘇已被點燃？China’sbigfiscalpackagemaybestartingtowork中國龐大的財政措施可能已經(jīng)起效“ONLYwhenallcontributetheirfirewoodcantheybuildupastrongfire,”saysaChineseproverb.Withtheworldeconomyinitsworstcrisisin70years,everycountryneedstodoitsbittorekindleglobaldemand.TheAmericangovernment,whichplanstorunabudgetdeficitof12%ofGDPthisyear,hascalledonitsGroupof20partnerstodomore.IsChinaoneofthemisers?Itsbudget,publishedlastweek,showedthatitplanstorunadeficitofonly3%ofGDP.Wasthe4trillionyuan($586billion)infrastructurepackageunveiledlastNovember,worth14%ofGDP,asham?中國有句民諺：“眾人拾柴火焰高?！彪S著世界經(jīng)濟陷入70年以來的最大危機，要重燃全球需求之火，各國都責無旁貸。美國政府計劃今年運行占國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值12%的財政赤字，并號召二十國集團的伙伴們作出更多行動。中國是其中的吝嗇鬼嗎？它在上周公布的預算顯示，中國計劃運行的財政赤字只占GDP的3%。難道去年十一月公布的4億元用于基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè)的措施——相當于GDP的14%——僅僅是在忽悠？Beijing’sstimulusissmallerthanthenumberannouncedlastyear,butitisstillthebiggestintheworld.ThefactthatAmericaissettorunabudgetdeficitfourtimesthesizeofChina’sasashareofGDPdoesnotmeanitsdemandstimulusisbigger;Americastartedthisyearwithamuchbiggerdeficit.America’sdeficitwillincreasebymorethanChina’sthisyear,largelybecauseitissufferingadeeperrecessionwhichwilldepresstaxrevenue.Thecorrectmeasureofafiscalstimulusisthechangeinthebudgetdeficitadjustedfortheimpactoftheeconomiccycle.北京的刺激計劃小于去年公布的數(shù)字，但這依然是世界范圍內(nèi)最大的經(jīng)濟刺激方案。盡管美國運行的財政赤字是中國的四倍，但這并不意味著它的需求性刺激計劃就更大。美國從今年開始就保持了巨大的財政赤字，并且年內(nèi)赤字增長將高于中國。這主要是因為美國遭受的經(jīng)濟衰退極大地減少了稅收。財政刺激方案的正確措施應該是調(diào)整財政赤字以適應經(jīng)濟圈的沖擊。InChina,however,eventhiswouldunderstatethetruestimulus,becausesomepublic-infrastructureinvestmentwillbedonebystate-ownedfirmsorlocalgovernmentsandfinancedbybanks.TaoWangofUBSestimatesthatnewinfrastructureinvestment,taxcuts,consumersubsidiesandincreasedspendingonhealthcarewillamounttoastimulusbythecentralgovernmentofabout3%ofGDPin2009.Addinginbank-financedinfrastructurespendingmightliftthetotalto4%ofGDP.然而在中國，經(jīng)濟赤字掩蓋了真實的刺激方案，因為一些公共基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施投資是由銀行提供資金、國有公司或地方政府實施的。瑞銀的陶旺（音）預計，新的基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè)、減稅、消費補貼以及醫(yī)療方面的投資增長將構(gòu)成總額占到GDP3%的09年中央政府刺激方案。如果加上由銀行提供資金支持的基建支出，整個刺激方案將占到GDP的4%。Chineseinvestmentinrailways,roadsandpowergridsisalreadybooming.Inthefirsttwomonthsofthisyear,totalfixedinvestmentwas30%higherinrealtermsthanayearearlier,andinvestmentinrailwaystripled.Chinahasbeenmuchcriticisedforfocusingitsstimulusoninvestment,ratherthanconsumption,butinChinaintheshorttermthisisthequickestwaytoboostdomesticdemand.中國在鐵路、公路和電網(wǎng)方面的投資已經(jīng)大規(guī)模展開。今年頭兩個月內(nèi)，固定投資總額較去年同期增長30%，鐵路投資增長了3倍。很多批評認為，中國的刺激方案集中于投資而不是消費，但就短期來看，在中國這是提高國內(nèi)需求最立竿見影的方式。Whatabouttheothertoolforboostingdomesticspending,namelymonetarypolicy?Sincethestartoflastyear,ChinahascutitsinterestratesbyonlyhalfasmuchasAmerica’sFederalReservehas.Newfiguresshowingthatconsumerpricesfellby1.6%intheyeartoFebruaryhavebroughtthefirstwhiffofdeflation,suggestingthatChinahasnotdoneenoughtoboostdemand.Butthisisnottruedeflation,wherefallingpricesareaccompaniedbyshrinkingmoneysupplyandcredit.Banklendinggrewby24%overthepastyear.Thetruegaugeofmonetaryeasingisnotthecutininterestrates,butwhetheritsucceedsinspurringnewlending.Chinaisoneofthefewcountriesintheworldwherecredithasacceleratedsincethestartoftheglobalcreditcrunch—thoughsomeofthelendingisofthestate-directedsort.那么作為提高國內(nèi)消費另一手段的貨幣政策又運用的怎樣？從去年年初開始，中國已經(jīng)將利率砍到美聯(lián)儲的一半。新的統(tǒng)計數(shù)字顯示，到二月，消費品價格較去年下降了1.6%，從而帶來了第一輪通貨緊縮。這似乎意味著中國在提高需求方面做的尚且不夠。但其實，這并不是真正的通貨緊縮。真正的通縮情況下，貨幣供應和信貸會隨著物價下降而萎縮。去年，銀行借貸增長了24%。對銀根放松的正確估量并非基于利率，而是其是否成功刺激新的借貸產(chǎn)生。中國作為世界上少有的幾個國家，其借貸規(guī)模在全球信貸危機爆發(fā)后不降反升——盡管部分借貸是在國家指導下進行的。Chinahasnotonlyaccomplishedconsiderablefiscalandmonetaryeasing.Byallowingtheyuantoriseby18%intrade-weightedtermsoverthepast12months,Beijingispassingonsomeofthatboosttotherestoftheworld.中國不僅完成了規(guī)?？捎^的財政和銀根放松計劃，還通過讓人民幣在過去12個月內(nèi)升值18%（貿(mào)易加權(quán)考慮在內(nèi)），部分促進了世界貨幣經(jīng)濟增長。TherealquestioniswhetherChina’sstimulusisbigenough?Exportsfellbyasharper-than-expected26%intheyeartoFebruaryandmayyetdropfurther.The12-monthrateofgrowthinindustrialproductionalsodroppedtoonly3.8%inthefirsttwomonthsof2009,andretail-salesgrowthslowedto15%.Buttherearesometentativesignsofarecoveryindomesticdemand.Aswellastheincreasesininvestmentandbanklending,carsalesandelectricityconsumptionhavepickedup.MingchunSunofNomurareckonsthatthestimuluswillbeenoughtoachieve8%growththisyear.Butthegovernmenthasmadeitclearthatiftheeconomyremainsfeeble,itwillsupplyanotherfiscalboost.真正的問題是：中國的貿(mào)易刺激方案數(shù)量是否已經(jīng)夠大？到今年二月，年出口額下降遠超預期，達26%，并且可能繼續(xù)下挫。工業(yè)生產(chǎn)12個月增幅在09年頭兩個月已將至3.8%，零售業(yè)增長放緩至15%。但是仍然有一些國內(nèi)需求復蘇的暫時性指標。除了投資和銀行貸款增長外，汽車銷售和電力消費同樣得到提振。野村證券的孫明春（音）認為，經(jīng)濟刺激方案能夠?qū)崿F(xiàn)8%的年度經(jīng)濟增長。但是政府已經(jīng)明確表示，如果經(jīng)濟持續(xù)疲軟，將會提供另外的財政提振方案。Suchinjectionsmaybeabletodraggrowthbackto8%thisyear,buttheycannotkeeptheeconomyrunningatthispaceifglobaldemandremainsdepressed.TheneedforChinatoshiftthemixofgrowthfromexportstoconsumptionhasbecomemoreurgent.Chineseofficialsarerighttosaythatitwilltakeyearsforhigherpublicspendingonhealthcareandasocialsafetynettoreducehouseholdsaving—allthemorereasontospeedupsuchpolicies.Ifnot,evenChina’sfirecouldburnout.這些注入或許可以把今年的經(jīng)濟增長拉回到8%，但如果全球需求持續(xù)悲觀，增速便難以維持。對于中國而言，出口轉(zhuǎn)內(nèi)銷的需要已經(jīng)更加緊迫。中國官員正確地表示，將會用數(shù)年時間增量投資公共衛(wèi)生和社保體系以降低居民存款，使得這些政策的加速實施更加名正言順。否則，即便是中國的經(jīng)濟火焰也會被撲滅。（四）Theeconomy'sstumble經(jīng)濟的絆足Airpocketorseconddip?氣囊保護還是二次淪陷？Oct8th2009|WASHINGTON,DCFromTheEconomistprinteditionAslumpinSeptemberpromptsthoughtsofnewstimulus9月經(jīng)濟大跌，新刺激方案提上日程AFTERridingawaveofimprovementsincethespring,theeconomystumbledinSeptemberaccordingtothelatestfigures.Non-farmemploymentsankby263,000,whichwas62,000morethaninAugust,andtheunemploymentrateroseby0.1%to9.8%.Carsalestumbledasthefederal“cash-for-clunkers”programmeexpired.Manufacturingactivitycooledabit.根據(jù)最新統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù)，從春季開始一路高歌猛進的美國經(jīng)濟在9月大幅下跌。非農(nóng)業(yè)職位減少了26.3萬個，降幅較8月增加了6.2萬個，失業(yè)率升至9.8%，增幅0.1%。汽車銷量在聯(lián)邦“舊車換現(xiàn)金”計劃結(jié)束后陡降。制造業(yè)略有放緩。Allthisisprobablyanairpocket;overalleconomicoutputalmostcertainlybegantoriseinthethirdquarteroftheyearandemploymentwilleventuallyfollow.Leadingindicatorssuchasthestockmarketandnewclaimsforunemploymentbenefitsaresignalingrecovery.Butitistakingapainfullylongtime.“Wewillneedtogrindoutthisrecoverystepbystep,”acknowledgedBarackObamaonOctober3rd,thedayafterthejobdatawerereleased.Toaddinsulttoinjury,theBureauofLabourStatisticsconcludedthattheeconomylost824,000morejobsintheyeartoMarchthanithadoriginallythought.Thatwouldraisetherecession’stollsofarto8m,or5.8%oftheworkforce.Assumingnofurtherrevisions,therecessionnowholdsthehonourofthemostseveresincetheSecondWorldWar—exceedingeventhe5%lossrecordedin1948.這一切或許是如“氣囊”一般的保護性反應；今年第三季度，經(jīng)濟總量確已開始上升，就業(yè)率最終也將隨之跟進。證券市場以及新失業(yè)津貼政策等主要指標都預示著經(jīng)濟的回暖。然而，前路漫漫?！拔覀冃枰鸩交謴徒?jīng)濟，”巴拉克?奧巴馬在就業(yè)數(shù)據(jù)發(fā)布的第二天（10月3日）承認說。雪上加霜的是，勞動統(tǒng)計局表示，截至今年5月，美國經(jīng)濟比預想的進一步減少了82.4萬個職位。這使得經(jīng)濟衰退造成的總失業(yè)人數(shù)達到了800萬，占勞動力的5.8%。如果經(jīng)濟停止進一步惡化，那這將是自二戰(zhàn)以來最嚴重的經(jīng)濟衰退——其損失超過了1948年所記載的GDP的5%。Thebiggerproblemisthatonceemploymentgrowthresumes,itwillprobablyremainanaemic.Morethanhalfofbusinessessaytheywillnotreturntopre-recessionstaffinglevelsuntil2012,ifever,accordingtoaSeptembersurveyofchieffinancialofficersbyDukeUniversityandCFOMagazine,asisterpublicationofTheEconomist.Fully43%stillplantocullpayrollsinthenext12months.更大的問題在于，就業(yè)一旦增加，它仍有可能持續(xù)疲軟。根據(jù)杜克大學及《CFOMagazine》雜志（與《TheEconomist》同屬一家公司）財務(wù)長在9月的一份報告，超過半數(shù)的公司表示即使其人員編制有所回升，但在2012年之前不會回到衰退前的水平。共有43%的公司計劃在未來的12個月中繼續(xù)裁減人手。MrObamaandhisadvisersareconsideringnewmeasurestoboosttheeconomy.Thesewillnotbeonthescaleofthisyear’s$787billionstimulusprogramme,whichwillinanycasecontinuetoinjectmoneyintotheeconomyuntiltheendofnextyear.Morelikely,hewillseektocontinuesomeprovisionsofthestimulusbill,suchasextendingunemploymentbenefitsforlaid-offworkersandsubsidiestoallowthemtokeeptheirhealthinsurance.奧巴馬先生和他的顧問們正考慮新的經(jīng)濟提振措施，但其規(guī)模將不及今年7870億美元的刺激計劃，后者于明年年底之前將不遺余力的不斷向經(jīng)濟注入資金。可能性更大的是，他將延續(xù)刺激方案中的某些條款，如下崗職工失業(yè)津貼擴面以及健康保險補助等。Theretreatincarsaleswhencash-for-clunkersendedwasajarringreminderofthewithdrawalsymptomsthatawaitwhenotherstimulusmeasures,suchasthehomebuyer’scredit,areallowedtoexpire.Butextendingthemwouldboostasoaringdeficitthatisestimatedtohavehit$1.4billioninthefiscalyearthatendedonSeptember30th.Votersarenervousaboutredinkstretchingawayintothefuture,andevenMrObama’sliberalsupportersareturninguptheheat.ThisweekNancyPelosi,theSpeakeroftheHouseofRepresentatives,saidavalue-addedtaxshouldbe“onthetable”.Itmayyetcometothat,thoughintroducingsuchataxtooearlywouldriskchokingofftherecoveryandcreatingabrandnewtaxthatwouldgivethepresident’senemiesafield-day.Noonesaidhisjobwaseasy.“舊車換現(xiàn)金”計劃結(jié)束所帶來的汽車銷量下降預示了在諸如購房貸款等刺激措施期滿結(jié)束后經(jīng)濟所將經(jīng)歷的退縮癥狀。但是，如果繼續(xù)實行此類措施，那將會為9月30日截止的本財政年帶來預計高達14億美元的財政赤字。選民們對未來源源不斷的財政赤字憂心忡忡，甚至是奧巴馬先生的自由派支持者都在火上澆油。本周，眾議院議長南希?佩洛西表示，征收增值稅應該“提上日程”。增值稅遲早會付諸實施。然而，過早的出臺此類稅收將有可能阻礙經(jīng)濟恢復，同時，征收新稅將會為總統(tǒng)的勁敵們提供反擊機會。大家都知道，奧巴馬先生過得不容易。（五）Signsofeconomiccheer經(jīng)濟振奮之征兆Thesunalsorises太陽照常升起Aug6th2009|WASHINGTON,DCFromTheEconomistprinteditionTheeconomymaybepullingoutofrecessionbutunemploymentisstillsurprisinglyhigh.Celebrationsshouldbedelayed雖然美國經(jīng)濟可能正從衰退中抽身而出，但是失業(yè)率仍然居高不下，慶祝理應押后。WHENBarackObamavisitedElkhart,Indiana,inearlyFebruary,afewweeksafterhisinauguration,itwasasombreaffair.Intheprevious12monthsthearea’sunemploymentratehadmorethantripledto18.3%.Thepresidentpleadedforthepassageofamassivefiscalstimulus,insistingthat“doingnothingisnotanoption.”BythetimehereturnedtoElkhartonAugust5thhewasquiteabitsunnier.Localfactoriesare“comingbacktolife”,heproclaimed.Afewdaysearlierhehaddeclaredtheeconomytohavedone“measurablybetter”thanexpected.在早前的2月份，就職數(shù)周的奧巴馬總統(tǒng)到訪了印第安娜州的埃爾德哈特。總統(tǒng)此行籠罩著一層陰郁的氣氛，因為在此前的十二個月當中，當?shù)氐氖I(yè)率達到了18.3%，是原來的三倍還多?？偨y(tǒng)隨即懇求通過大規(guī)模財政刺激方案，并堅持說，“絕不能坐以待斃。”8月5日，當再次來到埃爾德哈特時總統(tǒng)心情愉悅了一些，他表示本地工廠正在“恢復生機。”幾天之前，他已經(jīng)宣布了經(jīng)濟已比預期有“顯著好轉(zhuǎn)”的消息。MrObama’sgoodspiritsarewellgrounded:America’srecessionappearstobecomingtoanend.OnJuly31stthegovernmentreportedthatrealgrossdomesticproduct(GDP)contractedinthesecondquarter,butatonlya1%annualrate.Muchofthatdeclinereflectedbusiness’sdeterminationtokeepfactoriesandworkersidleandfillnewordersoutofexistinginventory.Now,stocksaresodepletedthatproductionwillsoonhavetorestart.奧巴馬的好精神是有根有據(jù)的，因為美國的衰退似乎正趨于結(jié)束。7月31號的政府報告中指出，第二季度的國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值雖然收縮，但僅為年率收縮1%。而此收縮很大程度上反映了暫時閑置工廠和工人，用存貨交付訂單的商業(yè)決策。現(xiàn)在存貨已經(jīng)消耗殆盡，恢復生產(chǎn)勢在必行。TheclutchofdatanowavailableforJulyhasstrengthenedexpectationsthatGDPwillriseinthecurrentquarterbyasmuchas3%.AnindexofmanufacturingactivityrosetoitshighestlevelsincelastAugust,andmanufacturersreportedthatnewordersweregrowingbriskly,thebestinovertwoyears.Carsalesjumped15%toanannualised11.2mandmanufacturersarerampingupproduction.Salesofexistinghouseshaverisen.EvenbatteredElkhartgotsomegoodnews:onAugust4thDometic,asupplierofrecreational-vehicleparts,saidthatwithsomehelpfromlocalincentivesitwouldadd240jobstoitsoperationinthetown.現(xiàn)有的很多7月份數(shù)據(jù)都為之前的預期--本季度GDP將會增長3%，提供了有力支持。制造業(yè)活躍指數(shù)提升到了8月份以來最高，制造商報告說新訂單增長活躍，達到兩年來最佳水平；汽車銷量飆升15%，按年率計達1,120萬輛，制造商也正在加大生產(chǎn)；現(xiàn)房的銷售量有所提升。就連備受折磨的埃爾德哈特也有喜訊傳來：在8月4號，一個名為Dometic的游藝車部件供應商說，在本地刺激因素的幫助下，公司將在本市增添240個工作崗位。MrObamaandhisaideshavewastednotimeincreditingthe$787billionfiscalstimulusforspurringthisrecovery.Infactthestimulus’scontributionsofarhasbeenrelativelymodest.Moreimportantwaslastautumn’smassiveinjectionofpubliccapital,loansandloanguaranteesintothefinancialsystem,andthisspring’sbankstresstests.Thesestoppedthespiralofdecliningassetprices,creditwithdrawalsandbankfailuresthathadthreatenedtoturnarecessionintoadepression.為了刺激經(jīng)濟復蘇，奧巴馬總統(tǒng)和他的助手們馬不停蹄地投入到了7870億美元的財政刺激計劃中。事實上，到目前為止這個刺激計劃似乎貢獻平平。相比之下，去年秋季金融體系的大規(guī)模公有資本注入，提供給金融體系的大量貸款和貸款擔保，以及今年春季的銀行壓力測試卻發(fā)揮了更大作用。這些措施阻止了急劇下滑的資產(chǎn)價格、信貸退出和銀行倒閉，將經(jīng)濟從衰退滑向大蕭條的危急關(guān)頭中拉了回來。OneofthemostencouragingbitsofnewsisthattheS&P/Case-Shiller20-cityindexofhousepricesfelljust0.2%betweenAprilandMay,thesmallestfallintwoyears.Stablehousepriceswoulddowondersinreducingloandelinquencies,shoringupthebanks’balance-sheetsandrestoringtheflowofcredit.最振奮人心的消息莫過于在4月到5月之間S&P/Case-Shiller（美國房價的領(lǐng)先衡量標準）20大城市房價指數(shù)僅下跌0.2%，是兩年來最小幅度。穩(wěn)定的房價對減少貸款拖欠會起到奇效，還可以支撐銀行的資產(chǎn)負債表，起到恢復信貸流動的作用。Despitethegoodnews,MrObama’sapprovalratings,thoughhigh,areslipping.This,inpart,isbecausethesinglemostimportanteconomicbenchmark,employment,remainsgrim,surprisinglyso.Unemploymentusuallyrespondstoeconomicgrowthinarelationshipthatwascapturedbyaneconomist,ArthurOkun,inthe1960s.ButithasrisenmoreduringthisrecessionthanmostformulationsofOkun’sLawwouldsuggest.消息有好有壞，奧巴馬總統(tǒng)的支持率雖然仍然算高，但是正處于下滑狀態(tài)，部分原因應歸咎于并無好轉(zhuǎn)的就業(yè)形勢（就業(yè)是一項最為重要的單一經(jīng)濟基準），在經(jīng)濟好轉(zhuǎn)的前提下這樣的就業(yè)形勢著實令人吃驚。經(jīng)濟學家亞瑟歐坤在十九世紀六十年代捕捉到，失業(yè)率與經(jīng)濟增長有關(guān)并通常隨之做出反應。但是在此次衰退中，失業(yè)率的上升幅度遠比歐坤法則的眾多公式推導出的幅度大的多。ThepublicationlastweekofrevisionstoearlierGDPdataexplainssomeofthediscrepancy.TherevisionsshowthatGDPhasdeclinedacumulative3.7%sincetheendof2007,thustyingwith1957-58asthedeepestrecessionsincetheDepression(beforetheserevisions,thedeclinewasshowntobe2.5%).Evenso,MichaelFeroli,aneconomistatJPMorganChase,saysthatOkun’sLawwouldhavepredictedanunemploymentrateofjust8.6%duringthesecondquarter,whereasitactuallyaveraged9.3%.上周公布的GDP修改數(shù)據(jù)可以解釋一些不符之處。修改數(shù)據(jù)顯示自2007年底GDP累計下降3.7%，可堪比發(fā)生在1957到58年自大蕭條以來最嚴重的衰退（修改前的數(shù)據(jù)顯示下降僅為2.5%）。即便如此，摩根大通的經(jīng)濟學家邁克爾?費拉里說，按照歐坤法則預測第二季度的失業(yè)率應僅為8.6%，而實際的失業(yè)率達到平均9.3%。Severalfactorsareatwork.Expandedunemployment-insurancebenefitsencouragesomeworkerstokeeplookingforajobratherthandropoutoftheworkforcealtogether,addingperhapshalfapercentagepointtotheunemploymentrate,accordingtotheFed.Theeviscerationoftheirwealthmayhaveledpeopletolookforworkratherthanretireorstayathomewiththechildren.成因存在于幾方面。擴大的失業(yè)保險收益鼓勵著一些人繼續(xù)尋找工作而不是徹底退出勞動大軍。根據(jù)美聯(lián)儲消息，這部分人口大約占失業(yè)率的0.5%。做了財富切除手術(shù)的人們更可能選擇找工作而不是退休或回家?guī)Ш⒆印ndfirmshavebeenunusuallyquicktoslashpayrolls.Somemaybehusbandingcashmorecarefullybecauseofthecreditcrunch.Othersmaysimplybemorepessimisticaboutaneventualrecovery.Whateverthereason,oneresultisthatproductivityisrising,cushioningprofitmargins.RobertHallofStanfordUniversity,whoheadstheacademiccommitteethatdatesrecessions,saysOkundevisedhislawinanerawhenproductivityusuallyfellduringrecessions:“Whenproductivityrises,thelawfails.ThoughIwasagreatfanofOkun’s