中國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長促全球經(jīng)濟(jì)格局改變

中國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長促進(jìn)全球經(jīng)濟(jì)格局改變Adecadeago,Chinawasn'tthetoptradingpartnerforevenoneoftheGroupof20economies.Today,it'sthebiggesttradingpartnerforsix(Australia,Japan,Korea,India,RussiaandSouthAfrica),hasreplacedtheU.S.asthetopexportmarketforaseventh(Brazil),andriseninimportfortherest.

'Whensomebodywritesthehistoryofourtime50or100yearsfromnow,'saysLawrenceSummers,theHarvardUniversityeconomistandformerObamaaide,'itisunlikelytobeabouttheGreatRecessionof2008…oraboutthefiscalproblemthatAmericaconfrontedintheseconddecadeofthe21stcentury.ItwillbeabouthowtheworldadjustedtothemovementofthetheaterofhistorytowardChina.'

China'sgrowthisfeltinnearlyeverycorneroftheglobe─inwaysnotalwayswelcome.Itsriseasatradingpowerisreshapingothereconomies,shiftingnationalbusinessmodelsfrommanufacturingbacktorawmaterials,pushingcurrenciesinsometimesunwanteddirectionsandpromptingworriesaboutwagesintheU.S.

China,whichreportedatradedeficitforFebruaryinpartbecauseofthetimingoftheLunarNewYear,saidexportsforthefirsttwomonthsofthisyearran21.3%aboveyear-agolevels;importswereup36%.TheU.S.,meanwhile,saidThursdayitranabiggertradedeficitinJanuarywithChinathanwithanyothercountry.InJanuary,atcurrentexchangerates,China'sglobalexportswere35%greaterthanU.S.exports;itsglobalimports14%smaller.

WhileChina'sofficialstatisticsmayinflatethevalueofexportsbyunderestimatingthevalueofimportedcomponents,signpostsofitstradeheftareplentiful.

InJapan,thelargestmakerofconstructionequipment,KomatsuLtd.,drew2.3%ofrevenuefromChinaadecadeago;todayitgets19%.Newlyhiredcollegegraduatestakeatwo-weekquickieChinesecourse,replacingEnglishclassesthecompanyusedtorequire.

InSouthAfrica,Chinanowsupplieshalftheimportedclothesandmorethantwo-thirdsofthetoys.Inexchange,ChineseconsumersenjoyorangesfromEgypt,cocoafromGhanaandwinefromSouthAfrica.

InBrazil,China'sunquenchableappetiteforrawmaterialsischangingthelandscape─literally.Brazil'srichestman,EikeBatista,isbuildinga$2.6billionsuperportnorthofRiodeJaneiroformassivetankersheadedforChina.BrazilandPeruhavenearlycompletedahighwaytocarrygoodsfromBrazilianfarmsthroughtheAmazonandovertheAndestoPeru'sPacificports.

China'strademachineshowsfewsignsofslowing.Afterplungingin2009whenglobaltradeflowsdriedupduringtheglobalfinancialcrisis,Chineseexportsandimportsreboundedin2010.TheflowofChineseinvestmentoverseasandinvestmentinChinabyforeignmultinationalswill,ifhistoryisaguide,spurstillmoretradebetweenChinaandothers.

Foremergingmarkets,theboosttoincomesthatcomesfromsellingtoChinaiswelcome,butthereareworriesaboutunwelcomesideeffects.

Foryears,BrazilandneighborssoughttoreducedependenceontheU.S.byfortifyinglocalindustriesandnurturingaregionalmarkettosupplyeachotherwitheverythingfromenergytowashingmachines.NowaboominexportstoChinaispushingBrazilawayfromhigh-valuemanufacturesandbacktowardcommodities.In2000,lessthan2%ofBrazil'sexportsofgoodswenttoChina;by2009,12.5%did,accordingtotheInternationalMonetaryFund.

AccordingtoBraziliangovernmentdata,about80%ofBrazil'sexportstoChinaareagriculturalandmineralcommodities;about90%ofitsimportsfromChinaaremanufacturedgoods,manyofthemthingsthatBrazilcan'tmakeascheaplyasChinabecausewagesarehigherinBrazil.BrazilianofficialsarguewithincreasingvehemencethatChinaisgivingitsexportsanextraadvantagebyundervaluingtheyuan.

AndsomeBraziliansworryaboutthelong-termeffects.'Chinaisanimportantmarket,butBrazilshouldn'tbeputtingallitseggsinonebasket,'saysRubensRicupero,aformerBrazilianfinanceministerandformerheadoftheU.N.ConferenceonTrade&Development.

InSouthAfrica,underpressurefromtradeunions,thegovernmentlastyearaskedChinatovoluntarilylimittextileexports,resumingquotasthatwereliftedin2008.Chinarefused.IfChinesefirmsaren'tsellingtoSouthAfrica,itwillbeothercountrieswhotakeourplace,'China'sambassador,ZhongJianhua,saidinaninterview.

InIndonesia,textile,furnitureandelectronicsmanufacturersareshoutingaboutimportsfromChinathatfollowedtheliftingoftariffsinaregionalfree-tradepact.'Wearetotallyoutcompetedeventhoughourlaborischeaperthantheirs,'saysSofjanWanandi,chairmanoftheIndonesianEmployersAssociation.LousyinfrastructureandhighinterestratesboostcostsinIndonesia,heargues.'PeoplearegoingoutofbusinessorbecomingimportersofChinesegoods.'ImportsfromChinarose50%lastyear,morethanoffsettingIndonesia'sincreasedcommoditiesexportstoChina.

About30%ofChina'stradeiswithdevelopingcountries─upfromlessthan20%in2000,theIMFsays.Butthebulkisstillwithdevelopedcountries.

Chinaaccountsfor25%ofAustralia'sexports,upfrom4%ofjustadecadeago.Demandforrawmaterialsandtherelatedtradesurplus,asurgeintheAustraliandollarandincreaseininterestratesaretwistingtheeconomy,strengtheningwesternminingregionswhileundercuttingtourismandnonminingindustries.

'We'vegotresourcesthattheworldneeds.Butweneedtoorganizeouraffairstotakebestadvantageofthatandovercomingissuesofthebipolareconomy,'RogerCorbett,formerchiefexecutiveofretailerWoolworthsLtd.andamemberoftheAustraliancentralbankboard,saidrecently.Headvocatesataxontheminingindustry,whichhesees,inessence,asataxonChina.

ThethorniestquestioniswhethertheriseofChinaandotheremerging-marketsisaffectingwagesintheU.S.Thetextbookviewisthattradehurtssomeworkersandhelpsothersandonbalanceisanetplus.

Butsomeeconomistsarguethatwhenrichcountriestradedmainlywithotherrichcountries─theU.S.withGermany,forinstance─theyspecialized,butdidn'tcompeteonwages.Theysaythedynamicsoftradewithlow-wageemergingmarketsaredifferent:EvensomewhopreachthevirtuesoffreetradesuggestChina's─andIndia's─growingweightandmovetomoresophisticatedproductsmaycontributetosluggishwageincreasesintheU.S.andawideninggapbetweenjob-marketwinnersandlosers.

'Foradvancedcountries,moreimportstodayarecomingfrommiddle-andlow-incomecountries,'saysMatthewSlaughterofDartmouth'sTuckSchoolofBusiness,aformerBushWhiteHouseadviser.'Eventhoughtheseemergingtradingpartnersarebecomingricher,theirwagesareonaveragestillmuchlowerthanintheU.S.'U.S.wagesforallbutthebest-educatedworkers─theonesimmunefromcompetitionwithChina─aredepressed,asaconsequence,hesays.

Othereconomistsinsisttheevidencedoesn'tsupportthecasethattrade,asopposedtotechnology,istheculpritfordisappointingU.S.wagegrowth.HarvardUniversity'sRobertLawrence,whoiswritingabookontheissue,says,'TheU.S.economyhasbecomesospecializedthatless-skilledU.S.workersnolongercompeteheadtoheadwithemerging-economyworkers.'

DavidWessel/PauloPrada十年前﹐20國集團(tuán)(Groupof20)中沒有一個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)體的首要貿(mào)易伙伴是中國。如今﹐該集團(tuán)中澳大利亞、日本、韓國、印度、俄羅斯與南非這六個(gè)國家的最大貿(mào)易伙伴均是中國。該集團(tuán)的另外一個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)體巴西﹐其最大的出口市場也由美國變成了中國。除此之外﹐中國從20國集團(tuán)其它經(jīng)濟(jì)體的進(jìn)口規(guī)模也有所擴(kuò)大。哈佛大學(xué)(HarvardUniversity)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家、奧巴馬前助手薩默斯(LawrenceSummers)說﹐50或100年後人們在書寫我們時(shí)代的歷史時(shí)﹐主要談及的可能不是2008年的經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退﹐或有關(guān)美國在21世紀(jì)第二個(gè)10年面臨的財(cái)政問題﹐而是世界如何適應(yīng)歷史舞臺(tái)向中國轉(zhuǎn)移這一變化。

中國的增長幾乎對(duì)全球各地都有影響﹐而這種影響並非總是令人愉快。中國作為貿(mào)易伙伴的崛起正在改變其它經(jīng)濟(jì)體的結(jié)構(gòu)﹐使得這些國家的商業(yè)模式從製造業(yè)向原材料生產(chǎn)國倒退﹐推動(dòng)各國貨幣有時(shí)出現(xiàn)令人不悅的走勢﹐並引發(fā)美國人對(duì)工資的擔(dān)憂。

中國說﹐今年前兩個(gè)月其出口總量較去年同期上漲了21.3%﹐進(jìn)口總量上漲了36%。中國2月份出現(xiàn)了貿(mào)易逆差﹐部分原因在於受到中國農(nóng)歷新年的影響。而美國週四說﹐今年1月美國對(duì)華貿(mào)易逆差規(guī)模超過其它任何國家。按目前的匯率計(jì)算﹐中國1月份的全球出口額比美國高35%﹐進(jìn)口額則比美國低14%。

雖然中國的官方數(shù)據(jù)可能通過低估進(jìn)口部件的價(jià)值而擴(kuò)大了出口貨物的價(jià)值﹐但有眾多跡象表明中國貿(mào)易在全球的重要性。

日本最大的建築設(shè)備製造商小松建設(shè)工業(yè)(KomatsuLtd.)十年前從中國賺得的收入只佔(zhàn)其總收入的2.3%﹐如今這一比例升至19%。該公司新入職的大學(xué)畢業(yè)生現(xiàn)在要參加一個(gè)為期兩週的中文速成班﹐而以前公司要求畢業(yè)生學(xué)的是英語。

南非的進(jìn)口衣物中﹐有一半來自中國﹐而進(jìn)口玩具有超過三分之二來自中國。另一方面﹐中國消費(fèi)者則享用到來自埃及的柑橘、加納的可可和南非的紅酒。

中國對(duì)於原材料永不滿足的需求正實(shí)實(shí)在在地改變巴西的景觀。巴西首富巴蒂斯塔(EikeBatista)正在里約熱內(nèi)盧北部建造一個(gè)耗資26億美元的超級(jí)港口﹐供駛向中國的大型油輪停泊。巴西和秘魯已基本建好了一條高速公路﹐巴西農(nóng)場的貨物可借由這條公路穿過亞馬遜雨林、翻越安第斯山脈並最終到達(dá)秘魯?shù)亩鄠€(gè)太平洋港口。

中國的貿(mào)易活動(dòng)幾乎沒有顯示出放緩的跡象。2009年全球貿(mào)易受世界金融危機(jī)的影響幾乎出現(xiàn)停滯﹐中國進(jìn)出口貿(mào)易也大幅走低﹐但2010年中國進(jìn)出口開始反彈。倘若可以史為鑒﹐那麼中國的海外投資和外國跨國企業(yè)的對(duì)華投資都將進(jìn)一步推動(dòng)中國和其它國家的貿(mào)易往來。

對(duì)於新興市場而言﹐國民收入因?qū)θA出口而有所提高﹐這是令人愉快的﹐但同時(shí)這些國家也擔(dān)心對(duì)華出口所帶來的不受歡迎的負(fù)面影響。

巴西及其鄰國多年來曾力求減少對(duì)美國的依賴﹐加強(qiáng)本土產(chǎn)業(yè)﹐培養(yǎng)地區(qū)市場﹐相互提供從能源到洗衣機(jī)等一切產(chǎn)品。如今﹐對(duì)華出口的快速增長正讓巴西從高價(jià)值工業(yè)品製造國向大宗商品供應(yīng)國倒退。據(jù)國際貨幣基金組織(InternationalMonetaryFund)的統(tǒng)計(jì)﹐巴西的出口在2000年時(shí)只有不到2%是輸往中國﹐而這一比例在2009年升至12.5%。

據(jù)巴西政府統(tǒng)計(jì)﹐巴西對(duì)中國的出口約有80%為大宗農(nóng)產(chǎn)品和礦產(chǎn)品﹐從中國的進(jìn)口約有90%為製造業(yè)商品﹐由於巴西工資較高﹐其中許多商品的製造成本在巴西無法像在中國那樣便宜。巴西官員認(rèn)為﹐中國通過低估人民幣給了出口一個(gè)額外優(yōu)勢﹐不滿情緒日益激烈。

一些巴西人對(duì)長期效應(yīng)頗為擔(dān)憂。曾任巴西財(cái)政部長、聯(lián)合國貿(mào)易與發(fā)展會(huì)議（U.N.ConferenceonTrade&Development）前秘書長的利庫佩羅（RubensRicupero）說﹐中國是個(gè)重要市場﹐但巴西不應(yīng)孤注一擲。

在工會(huì)的施壓下﹐南非政府去年要求中國主動(dòng)限制紡織品出口﹐恢復(fù)2008年取消的出口配額。中國拒絕了。中國駐南非大使鐘建華在採訪中說﹐若中國公司不向南非賣東西﹐其他國家將會(huì)取代我們的位置。

在印度尼西亞﹐一項(xiàng)地區(qū)貿(mào)易協(xié)定取消關(guān)稅後﹐紡織