匈牙利農(nóng)業(yè)國際競爭力-現(xiàn)狀和規(guī)劃【外文翻譯】

外文翻譯原文THEINTERNATIONALCOMPETITIVENESSOFHUNGARIANAGRCULTURE:PASTPERFORMANCEANDFUTUREPROJECTIONSMaterialSource:Post-CommunistEconomies,2006(16).Author:MatthewGortona,SophiaDavidovab,MartinBansec,AlistairBaileyd1.Methodology:DomesticResourceCost(DRCs)RatiosWhilethereisalackofconsensusonhow,orifatall,internationalcompetitivenessshouldbemeasured,inpracticetheDRCratiohasbeenwidelyapplied(Tsakok,1990).TheestimationofDRCshasbeenperceivedasusefulincomparingthecompetitivenessofunlikeproductionsystemsandassessingthecomparativeadvantageofalternativeactivities(MonkeandPearson,1989).TheDRCapproachhaspreviouslybeenemployedinassessingtheinternationalcompetitivenessofHungarianagriculture,forthemid-1990s,byBanseetal.(1999)andbyemployingthesamemeasureasthelatterauthorsitispossibletoanalysechangesthatoccurredduringthepre-accessionperiod. ThemainweaknessoftheDRCmeasurehasbeenperceivedtobeitsstaticnaturewhichfailstocapturemarketdynamics(Tsakok,1990).ThisproblemisnotuniquetotheDRCmethodandissharedbymostcost-benefitanalysis.Oneapproachtodealingwiththisweaknessistoconductsensitivityanalysisbyassessingthesensitivityoftheestimatesatvaryingpricesandquantitiesofinputsandoutputs(KannapiranandFleming,1999).2.DRCsEstimatesfor2000to2002Foreachofthearablecrops,corporateenterprisesaremoreinternationallycompetitivethanindividualfarms(asindicatedbylowerDRCratios).Onesubstantialdifferencebetweenindividualandcorporatefarmsistheamountofnon-tradablecostspertonne.Forexample,forwheatproducedbyindividualfarmsin2001,theaveragecostofnon-tradablespertonnewas14,705HUF(€57.3).Thecorrespondingfigureforcorporatefarmswas12,377HUF(€48.73).Differencesinlabourinput,measuredintermsofitsopportunitycost,accountprincipallyforthehigherproportionofnon-tradablecostsonindividualfarms.Sunflowerproductionbycorporatefarmswasinternationallycompetitivein2000and2001andaboutone-thirdofHungary'stotalsunflowercropisexported.Onecompany(CereolRt.)dominatescommercialoilseedprocessingandNemes(2003)reportsthatin2002,Cereoloffereddomesticproducers€277.7pertonne,whiletheaveragef.o.b.exportparitypricewas€206.5(in2001,€241.2pertonnef.o.b.price).Withthedropininternationalprices,exportsfellsignificantly,particularlyasforperiod2000-2002exportsofoilseedsandvegetableoilwerenotsubsidisedbythestate.Hungary'smainmarketsareRussia,Belarus,Poland,BosniaandSlovenia.Hungarianpotatoproductionwasnotcompetitiveinanyoftheyearsstudied.Theareaunderpotatocultivationhasdeclinedsignificantlysincetheearly1990s(in1995nearly70,000hawereplantedcomparedwith34,500hain2002).ProductionisnowconcentratedintheGreatPlainbuteventheretheareaassignedtopotatoesissmallcomparedtoothercrops.Post-accession,itisexpectedthatdomesticproductionwillfurtherdeclineduetosubstitutionbyimportsfromPoland.Hungariantradeinsugarandsugarbeetisquitethinwiththedomesticmarkethighlyregulated.Twotothreecompaniesdominatethesugarindustrywiththevastmajorityofgrowersoperatingoncontractswiththeselargeplayers.Averagesugarbeetyieldsarearound40tperhectare,whichisonaparwiththeCzechRepublicbutlowbyUKandGermanstandards(ZimmermannandZeddies,2002).TheDRCcalculationsindicatethatcorporatefarmproductionwasinternationallycompetitivein2001and2002butgiventhenatureofthemarket,substantialchangesintheareadevotedtosugarbeetarenotexpectedintheshorttomediumterm.Incontrasttoarableproduction,Hungarianlivestockfarmingwasnotinternationallycompetitiveduringtheearlytomid-1990sandBanseetal.(1999)reportedDRCratiosformilkandporkwhichwereconsiderablyabove1.Duringthe2000-2002period,milkproductiononbothcorporateandindividualfarmscontinuedtobeinternationallyuncompetitive.Whiletheproductivityofmilkproductionisnotparticularlylow,asevidencedbytheinput-outputcoefficientsintheCGEmodel,Hungarydependsonhightradesupport(domesticquotas,highimporttariffsandpriorto2001exportsubsidies)tomaintainitsstatusasanetexporter.Theunitvaluesofexportsarelow:togiveanindicationofscale,theadjustedf.o.b.bordervalueofthemilkproducedbyindividualfarmsin2001was64HUF(€0.26)perlitre,comparedtotradableandnon-tradablecostsof35and50HUF(€0.13and€0.19)perlitrerespectively.Themainnon-tradablecostistheopportunitycostoflabourinput.Thislabourinputonindividualfarmsisnon-salaried(ownorfamily)andthusthereisalargedifferencebetweenpaidcostsandtheDRCcalculationswhichaccountfortheopportunitycostsoflandandlabour.Hungary’sunfavourableinternationalposition,particularlycomparedwithSlovakia,inmilkproductionhasbeennotedelsewhere(Udovecz,2001).However,whilemilkcontinuedtobeuncompetitive,chickenproducerswitnessedanimprovementinfortunesduringthe2000to2002periodastheindustryrecoveredfromtheRussiancrisisanddomesticdemandforpoultryexpanded.GermanyandAustriaarecurrentlyHungary'smostimportantexportmarketswithsalestothesetwocountriesrisingsignificantlyaftertheJuly2001agreementwiththeEUtoopenupmarkets.Theindustrybenefitedfromthebumperharvestsin2001and2002:inthe2002marketingyear,feedcostswere10percentlowerthanin2001.Duringthesameperiod,outputalsorose.However,theadoptionofEUregulationsgoverninghygieneandanimalwelfarewillincreasecostsofproduction(Keszietal.2003)andthusdecreasecostcompetitiveness.Inporkproduction,thereremainsalargedividebetweentheinternationalcompetitivenessofindividualandcorporatefarms.Thecompetitivenessofindividualfarmproductiondeterioratedbetween2000and2002asaresultoftheappreciationoftheHUF.Exportershavedependedonstatesubsidies(about20-25percentoftotalHungarianproductionisexported).Exportsubsidiesintheperiod2000to2002forporkrangedfrom27to90HUF(€0.09to€0.39)perkgdependentonthetypeofmeat.Futureproductionisexpectedtoshrinkdramatically,asdomesticsupportswerewithdrawnafteraccessiontotheEU.3. DRCsProjectionsfor2007and2013In2002,onlytheweightedaverageDRCsforsugarbeetandchickenwerebelow1andunderthebaselinescenario(non-accession)whenonlypriceeffectsareconsideredthisdoesnotchangeineither2007or2013.Whilethepriceeffects,principallygrowthinfactorcosts(landandlabour),haveanegativeimpactoncompetitiveness,historicratesofproductivity,ifmaintained,aresufficienttooffsettheadverseeffectofthepricechanges.Forexample,theDRCratioforwheatin2002was1.23butthisfallsto1.0and0.87inyears2007and2013respectivelywhenbothpriceandproductivityeffectsaretakenintoconsiderationinthebaselinescenario.Asimilarpictureisevidentforallothercommoditiesapartfrommilk.Priceeffectsarelargerundertheaccessionscenariothaninthebaselinecase,particularlytherisesinlandandlabourcosts.

Thesepriceeffectshaveasignificantlynegativeimpactoninternationalcompetitiveness:forexample,theDRCratiosforwheatandporkrisefrom1.23and1.38in2002to1.69and1.8in2007and1.94and2.26in2013respectivelywhenonlythepriceeffectsareconsidered.Moreover,whileforthebaselinecase,historiclevelsofproductivitychangewouldbesufficienttooffsetthepriceeffects,thisisnotsoundertheaccessionscenarioforarablecrops.Forexample,theDRCratiosforwheatandmaizein2007areestimatedtobe1.32and1.2respectivelywhenbothpriceandhistoriclevelsofproductivitychangeareconsidered,comparedagainstratiosfor2002of1.23and1.15respectively.Inotherwords,toimproveinternationalcompetitivenessinarableproductionHungarywillhavetoachieveproductivityimprovementsthatareabovehistoriclevelstooffsettheadversepriceeffectsofaccession.Forporkandchicken,historiclevelsofproductivitychangearesufficienttooffsettheadversepriceeffectsofaccessionbecausethemainincreasedcostsassociatedwithaccessionisland,whichaccountsforalowerproportionoftotalcostsfortheseproducts.

However,thesecalculationsdonotaccountforthecostsofanyadditionalinvestmentsthatmayberequiredtomeettherequirementsofEUanimalwelfareandotherlegislation.IfHungaryfollowsSpainandPortugalandbenefitsfromasubstantialriseinproductivitypost-accession,ashypothesisedinthethirdpolicyscenario,internationalcompetitivenesswouldimproveconsiderably.Underthisscenario,theDRCratiosforallcommoditiesarepredictedtobelow1in2007and2013exceptmilk,andpotatoesin2007.By2013,theratiosforwheat,maizeandsunflowerseedsareallpredictedtobesubstantiallybelow1.Ifenhancedproductivitygrowthisachieved,Hungarywillrecaptureorimproveonitscompetitivepositionofthemid-1990s.First,accessionhasamoreadverseeffectontheinternationalcompetitivenessofcropsproducedbyindividualfarmsthancorporateenterprises.Thisisbecausecorporatefarmsusefewerunitsofnon-tradedfactorsofproductionperunitoftradablecoststhanindividualfarms.Themainpriceeffectofaccessionisonland,andtoalesserextent,labour,whicharefarlargerthanchangesinthesocialpricesofoutputsandtradableinputs.Forexample,theDRCratiosforwheatin2007undertheaccessionscenariowithhistoricratesofproductivitychangeareforecasttobe1.72and1.22forindividualandcorporatefarmsrespectively,incontrasttocomparableratiosfor2002of1.51and1.16respectively.Second,withoutenhancedproductivitygrowth,mostoftheoutputofindividualfarmswillremainuncompetitive.Ifunderaccessiononlyhistoricgrowthratesinproductivityareachieved,theninboth2007and2013onlychickenproductionwouldbeinternationallycompetitive.Pork,inparticular,wouldremaindeeplyuncompetitiveandtheratiosforallthecropsareabove1.Incontrast,evenifonlyhistoricratesofproductivitygrowthwereachievedunderaccessionbycorporatefarms,theninadditiontochicken,sunflower,sugarbeetandmaizeproductionwouldbeinternationallycompetitivein2013.Theratioforwheat(1.09)suggests,givenitsclosenessto1,thatthemostefficientcorporatefarmproducingthiscommoditywouldalsobeinternationallycompetitive.Forbothindividualandcorporatefarms,historicratesofproductivitygrowthareinsufficienttoimprovethecompetitivenessofHungarianmilkproduction.4. ConclusionsThispaperanalysesthesocialprofitabilityandinternationalcompetitivenessofHungarianagricultureinthepre-accessionperiodandpresentsaseriesofprojectionsfortheyears2007and2013.Incombininganalysisfortheyears2000to2002,withtheresultsoftheCGEmodelanddifferentassumptionsonproductivitychange,anattempthasbeenmadetodealwiththemostcommoncriticismoftheDRCapproach,thatitisastaticconcept,andassesstheimpactofdynamicchangesinpricesandproductivity.Theanalysisindicatesthatduringtheperiod2000to2002Hungarianinternationalcompetitivenessincropsdeclinedasaresultofappreciationoftheforint,staticdomesticdemandandfallingexportpricesasoutputinotherCEECsrose.Whilelivestockproducersbenefitedfromlowerfeedcosts,milkand,toalesserextent,porkproductionremaineduncompetitive.Thegapininternationalcompetitivenessbetweenindividualandcorporatefarms,apparentinthemid-1990s,haspersisted.譯文匈牙利農(nóng)業(yè)國際競爭力:現(xiàn)狀和規(guī)劃資料來源:Post-CommunistEconomies,2006(16).作者：MatthewGortona,SophiaDavidovab,MartinBansec,AlistairBaileyd1.方法論：國內(nèi)資源成本（DRCs）的比率雖然是一個缺乏共識的結(jié)論，在所有的衡量國際競爭力的實踐中，DRCs的比例得到了廣泛應(yīng)用（Tsakok，1990）。DRCs評估被理解為在比較有用的不同生產(chǎn)系統(tǒng)的競爭力和評估（MonkeandPearson,1989）的替代比較優(yōu)勢。DRCs法以前就已經(jīng)被用于評估匈牙利農(nóng)業(yè)國際競爭力，90年代中期，由Banse（1999年）等作家，因為后者采用同樣的措施是對有可能的變化進(jìn)行分析，在加入前期間發(fā)生的。

DRCs的措施主要弱點時因為它的其靜態(tài)性質(zhì)，未能捕捉市場動態(tài)（Tsakok，1990）。這個問題是不是DRCs法特有的，DRCs是由最符合成本效益分析來處理這個弱點進(jìn)行了評估在不同的價格，投入和產(chǎn)出（Kannapiran和弗萊明，1999年）的數(shù)量估算的靈敏度分析。

2.從2000至2002年的DRCs評估

對于農(nóng)作物的耕地，每個企業(yè)比個體農(nóng)場（由低金比率表示）更具有國際競爭力。個人和公司之間的一個農(nóng)場的本質(zhì)區(qū)別是每噸非流通費。例如，對于個別農(nóng)場在2001年生產(chǎn)的小麥，非貿(mào)易品每噸平均成本為14705福林（€57.3）。對企業(yè)農(nóng)場的相應(yīng)數(shù)字是12377福林（€48.73）。在勞動力投入的差異，其機會成本來衡量，主要考慮為對個體農(nóng)場非流通成本高的比例。

向日葵農(nóng)場生產(chǎn)的企業(yè)國際競爭力，在2000年和2001年約三分之一的匈牙利總向日葵作物三分之一用于出口。一個公司（CereolRt.）占主導(dǎo)地位的商業(yè)油籽加工及Nemes（2003）的報告說，2002年Cereol提供價格€277.7每噸，而平均離岸價平價價格為€出口206.5（2001年，€離岸價格每噸241.2）。隨著國際價格的下降，出口大幅下降，特別是作為2000-2002年期間油籽和植物油出口量不是由國家提供補貼。匈牙利的主要市場是俄羅斯，白俄羅斯，波蘭，波斯尼亞和斯洛文尼亞。

匈牙利的馬鈴薯生產(chǎn)競爭力還沒有過任何一年的研究。根據(jù)馬鈴薯種植面積的大幅下跌，自20世紀(jì)90年代初（1995年種植了近7萬公頃，2002年則為34,500公頃）?，F(xiàn)生產(chǎn)主要集中在大平原，但即使在那里分配給土豆面積比較小的其他作物。入世后，預(yù)計國內(nèi)產(chǎn)量將進(jìn)一步下降，從波蘭的進(jìn)口，作為替代。

甜菜糖和匈牙利的貿(mào)易是相當(dāng)高度管制和國內(nèi)市場的薄弱。兩到三家公司主宰隨著與這些大公司經(jīng)營合同種植者的絕大多數(shù)制糖業(yè)。甜菜平均單產(chǎn)為每公頃40噸左右，這是一個與捷克共和國的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)桿，而且低于英國和（ZimmermannandZeddies，2002年）德國標(biāo)準(zhǔn)。DRCs的計算表明，農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)是企業(yè)在2001年和2002年的國際競爭力，但由于市場的性質(zhì)，用于甜菜面積有很大的變化不會在短期到中期內(nèi)表現(xiàn)出預(yù)期。與的耕地生產(chǎn)相反，匈牙利畜牧業(yè)國際競爭力的過程中并沒有早于90年代中期。Banse（1999年）的DRCs報告的牛奶和豬肉的比例大大高于1。在2000-2002年間，牛奶公司和個體農(nóng)場生產(chǎn)仍然在國際上缺乏競爭力。雖然牛奶的生產(chǎn)效率也不是特別低，如在CGE模型的投入產(chǎn)出系數(shù)的證明，匈牙利取決于高貿(mào)易的支持（國內(nèi)配額，高關(guān)稅和出口補貼在2001年之前），以保持其作為一個狀態(tài)凈出口國。出口的單位價值低：給出的一個比例顯示，調(diào)整后的離岸價按個別農(nóng)場生產(chǎn)的牛奶在2001年邊界值是每公升64福林（€0.26），而流通價和非流通價的成本為35和50福林（€0.13€0.19）分別為每公升。主要的非流通價的成本是勞動力投入的機會成本。這種對個體農(nóng)場勞動投入是不受薪（自己或家庭），因此有一間支付的費用和DRCs的計算規(guī)定對土地和勞動力的機會成本帳有很大的差異。匈牙利的不利的國際地位，特別是與斯洛伐克，牛奶產(chǎn)量一直在其他地方被提出來（Udovecz，2001）。

然而，雖然仍是沒有競爭力的牛奶，雞肉生產(chǎn)商目睹2000年至2002年期間，在財富的改善，因為該行業(yè)從俄羅斯危機和擴大內(nèi)需恢復(fù)家禽進(jìn)口。德國和奧地利，目前匈牙利與這兩個最重要的國家在2001年7月后與歐盟達(dá)成協(xié)議，大幅開放市場銷售的出口市場。從豐收得益于2001年和2002年的行業(yè)：在2002年銷售年度，飼料成本百分之十，比2001年低。在同一時期，產(chǎn)量也有所增加。然而，歐盟的管理衛(wèi)生和動物福利法規(guī)的通過將增加生產(chǎn)成本（Keszietal.2003），從而降低成本的競爭力。

在豬肉生產(chǎn)方面，個人農(nóng)場和企業(yè)之間仍存在著國際競爭力的巨大鴻溝。個別農(nóng)場生產(chǎn)的競爭能力惡化，2000年至2002年，是該福林升值的結(jié)果。出口商必須依靠國家補貼（約占出口總額的是匈牙利總產(chǎn)量約20-25）。出口補貼的期限為2000至2002年豬肉27-90公斤，每福林的肉類依賴型（€0.09€0.39）