cKinsey能源行業(yè)分析

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2000.”txho/11022ho0402

color.pptACCELERATING

INNOVATION

IN

ENERGYEnergy

is

Key

.

.

.

NowOctober

22,

2001This

report

is

solely

for

the

use

of

client

personnel.

No

part

of

it

may

be

circulated,

quoted,

or

reproducedfor

distribution

outside

the

client

organization

without

prior

written

approval

from

McKinsey

&

Company.This

material

was

used

by

McKinsey

&

Company

during

an

oral

presentation;

it

is

not

a

complete

record

ofthe

discussion.txho/11022ho0402

color.pptTODAY’S

DISCUSSION

Capital

markets:

ruthless

driver

ofinnovationCreative

destruction

in

the

Energy

Industry

What

can

Houston

do

to

lead

innovation

inEnergy?2txho/11022ho0402

color.pptNote:

Number

of

exits

averaged

over

twenty

year

periodSource:

McKinsey

analysis19351955197519952005EThe

S&P

500

is

abrutal,

unemotionalyardstick

ofperformanceThe

pace

of

changeis

acceleratingLONG-TERM

SURVIVAL

IS

DIFFICULT,

AND

GETTING

MOSOImplied

lifetime

in

S&P

500

based

on

company

exits

in

years3txho/11022ho0402

color.pptMARKETS

WIN

IN

THE

LONG

TERM4Overall

performance

of

S&P

500

would

have

beenabout20%

less

per

year……

if

itwere

made

up

of

those

companies

on

thelist

in

1957txho/11022

ho0402

color.ppt5HISTORICAL

PERFORMANCE

HAS

BEEN

ANALYZED

USING

THE

McKINSEY

LONG-TERM

PERFORMANCE

DATABASE

(PDB)PDBoverviewEnergy

sectorsFinancial

data

(60

items)

for

1,067

companiesin

16

industries

for

the

period

1962-2000*IndustryNumber

ofcompaniesIndustriesInteresting

dynamics

to

analyzeMore

than

10

players

with

50%ofsales

in

the

relevant

SIC

categoryCompaniesU.S.-basedBelonged

to

a

predetermined

SIC

codeObtained

at

least

50%

of

their

sales

from

specified

SIC

code(“pure-play”)Had

a

market

cap

withinthe

top

80%

of

all

market

cap

valuesCompanies

that

IPOed

in

last

4

years

met

both

market

capandpure

playcriteria

for

the

last

2

yearsCompanies

were

removed

only

when

they

merged,

gotacquired

or

went

bankruptSelection

criteriaAirlines23Commodity

Chemicals36Specialty

Chemicals47Defense28Medical

Supplies66Software171Paper47Pharmaceuticals101Soap24Telecommunications55Transportation25Semiconductors55Computer

hardware73Network42Utilities104Oil170Energy

subtotal274Total1,067*Currently

2000

data

has

been

updatedonlyfor

high

tech

companiesSource:McKinsey’s

long-term

performance

databasetxho/11022ho0402

color.pptACROSS

ALL

MAJOR

INDUSTRY

SECTORS,

NONE

HAS

EXHIBITEDSUSTAINED

OUTPERFORMANCE

..TelecomSource:McKinsey

performance

database6ToiletriesEconomynormalrange7-yearrollingnormalizedtotalreturntoshareholders:Selectindustriesvs.economyPharmaceuticals Defencetxho/11022ho0402

color.ppt...INFACT,MANYINDUSTRIESRARELYORNEVEROUTPERFORMAirlines

PaperCommodity

ChemicalsSpecialty

Chemicals7-yearrollingnormalizedtotalreturntoshareholders:Selectindustriesvs.economyEconomy

normal

rangeSource:McKinsey

performance

database7txho/11022ho0402

color.pptIF

YOU’RE

A

SURVIVOR,

YOU’VE

PROBABLY

UNDERPERFORMEDTHE

MARKET*

Companies

that

were

on

the

first

S&P

500

list

in

1957

and

remained

on

the

list

through

19957-yearrollingnormalizedtotalreturntoshareholders:Long-tersurvivorsvs.economyEconomy

returnEconomy

normal

range

(90%

confidence

band)Economy

survivors*Source:McKinsey

analysis,

McKinsey

corporate

performance

database8txho/11022ho0402

color.ppt9OUTPERFORMANCE

COMES

FROM

ATTACKERSSource:

McKinsey

analysis;

McKinsey

corporate

performance

database1

5Years

in

sample* Three

year

rolling

average

1962-95101520-10%5%0%-5%10%25Survivor’scurseTotal

return

to

shareholders

relative

to

industry

of“new

entrants”

into

top

80%

by

market

cap*TRS

relative

to

industry

average15%Attacker’s

advantage..becomes…txho/11022ho0402

color.pptSURVIVORS

UNDERPERFORM

BECAUSE

THEY

FAIL

TOCREATE,

INNOVATE,

AND

EXIT

QUICKLY

ENOUGHSurvivors

are

paralyzed

byfear

of–Product

cannibalization–Customer

conflict–Dilutive

acquisitionSurvivors

suffer

fromcultural

lock-inThesurvivor’s

mentalmodel

focuses

onprotecting

the

corebusinessSalesTimeVision,

ideas,

passionInability

toinnovateFocus

on

operationsDenialRationalityCreation

andinnovation10txho/11022ho0402

color.pptStockpriceCAGR44%(vs.S&PCAGR13%)#2

onlinebroker

with~20%

of

totalonline

retailbrokeragemarketaccountsLaunchesonline

tradingSchwab

assembles

secretdevelopment

teamCREATING

OPTIONS:

CANNIBALIZING

DIRECTCHANNELS

AT

SCHWABOnline

tradingbecomes

corebusinessSource:Literature

search,

company

reports,Bloomberg,McKinsey

analysisPercent

change

in

stock

price

since

Jan

92SchwabS&P

FinanceS&P

50011txho/11022ho0402

color.pptSource:Datastream,

company

reports,

Literature

searchDivestedpaper,rubberAcquiredmobilephonemanufacturerDivested

cableand

machinedivisionsDivestedpowerDivested

cablemachinery

andNokia

tiresDivested

televisions,chemicals

and

cablesStockpriceCAGR63%(vs.S&PCAGR13%)#1

worldmarket

shareof

cell

phones(~32%)Divested

dataoperationsDESTROYING:

NOKIA

–

FROM

CONGLOMERATE

TOWORLD’S

LARGEST

PHONE

MANUFACTURERPercent

change

in

stock

price

since

Jan

90NokiaS&P

50012txho/11022ho0402

color.pptTODAY’S

DISCUSSION

Capital

markets:

ruthless

driver

ofinnovationCreative

destruction

in

the

Energy

Industry

What

can

Houston

do

to

lead

innovation

inEnergy?13txho/11022ho0402

color.pptAs

expected

in

aregulated

industry,utilities

closelytrack

the

generaleconomyOil

was

hit

hard

inthe

80’s,

but

hasbeen

steadilyrecoveringUtilitiesOilPETROLEUMANDUTILITIESVS.THEECONOMY7-yearrollingaverageofnormalizedTRS14txho/11022ho0402

color.pptIn

the

long

run,

noneof

the

player

classesdelivers

significantreturns

beyond

theeconomy

as

a

wholeHowever,

returns

forIndependents

andOFSEs

appear

to

bemore

sensitive

to

oilprice

swingsPETROLEUMPLAYERCLASSPERFORMANCEVS.THES&P500MajorsIndependentsOFSEs7-year

rolling

average

of

normalized

TRS15txho/11022ho0402

color.pptINNOVATION

IN

ENERGYCompanyBusiness

model,technologyAcquisition,

businessmodelAcquisition,

businessmodelAcquisition,

businessmodelDriversCultural

revolution

at

a

gas

pipeline

company

thathas

redefined

commodity

tradingMid-80’s

low

tech

start-up

significantly

moresuccessful

than

the

dot-comsWith

a

high

quality

management

team,

it’spossible

to

grow

significantly

through

M&APulling

the

financial

restructuring

lever

hard

torelease

the

value

in

capital-heavy

assetsActivity16txho/11022ho0402

color.pptRELIANT

–

TRANSFORMATION

OF

AREGULATED

UTILITYLocalutilityNew

business

modelexperimentation1882-1995Founded

as

utility

toservice

local

HoustonmarketEntered

and

exited

utilityfuels

businessEntered

cable

TV

(1986)Acquired

interests

in

SouthAmerica

(1992)1995-2000Entered

IPP

market–Plants

in

California,

IndiaEntered

power

and

gastrading

(Currently

#4

ingas,

#3

in

power)Invested

intelecommunications

ande-commerce

(REICommunications,GuideS)2000-Created

two

distinctbusinesses–Regulated

distribution–Unregulated

wholesalepower

and

gasSource:Exited

South

Americanoperations

and

Cable

TVHoovers;

analyst

reports;

press

releasesBusiness

separation17txho/11022ho0402

color.pptTHE

REINVENTION

OF

BPPortfolio

pruningAttacking

throughconsolidationBusinessmodel

innovation1985-92Divested

noncore

lines

ofbusiness–Nutrition

(BP

Nutrition)–Computing

Services(Scicon)–Coal

(BP

Coal)–Minerals

(Selection

Trust)Acquired

strategic

coreassets–Sohio–Britoil1992-98Performance-drivenbusiness

unitsPeer

group/collaborativeperformance

managementOutsourced

noncorefunctions

(accounting,

IT)1998AmocoARCOVastarBurma

CastrolVeba18txho/11022ho0402

color.pptINNOVATION

IN

THEOIL

INDUSTRYCompanyAcquisition,

technologyAcquisition,

technology,business

modeldestructionAcquisition,

technologyAcquisition,

businessmodelDriversCement

company

creating

the

one-stop

shopfor

the

oil

patchEx-pipeline

subsidiary

leveraging

distinctiveexploration

and

acquisition

to

create

valuePioneer

in

oilfield

technology

playing‘smart’

inside

and

outside

of

the

oil

patchSpun-off

subsidiary

exploiting

proventechnologies

to

drive

revenue

growthActivity19txho/11022ho0402

color.pptTODAY’S

DISC