宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)（第十三版）課件：Policy Preview

PolicyPreview

.IntroductionFocusofthischapterismonetarypolicyExaminehowthecentralbanksetsinterestratesinordertocontrolaggregatedemandBeginwitha“medialevel”descriptionoftheoperationofcentralbankpolicy(who,what,why,when,andhow)Fundamentally,thecentralbankmovesinterestratesinresponsetodeviationsofoutputandinflationfromdesiredlevelsanotionthatissummarizedbytheTaylorruleFinally,discusshowthecentralbankdecideshowmuchtomoveinterestrates9-2The“Who”ofPolicyAlthoughbothfiscalandmonetarypolicycanbeusedtofinetunetheeconomy,asapracticalmatter,mostshort-runfinetuningisdonewithmonetarypolicyThe“who”ofstabilizationpolicy=centralbankIntheU.S.,thecentralbankistheFederalReserveBankFormally,U.S.monetarypolicyisestablishedbyvoteoftheFed’sOpenMarketCommittee(FOMC)Thechairman(BenBernanke)cantypicallyswingthatvoteInothercountries,theformaldecisionmakingauthorityisvestedsolelyinthegovernorofthecentralbank9-3The“What”ofPolicyWhattheFedactuallydoesissetakeyinterestrateintheeconomy

thefederalfundsrateRaisinginterestratestendstocoolofftheeconomyLoweringinterestratestendstoheatuptheeconomyLowerinterestratesencouragegreaterinvestmentspendingandgreaterspendingonsomeconsumptiongoods,thusincreasingADMonetarypolicyworksthroughADMonetarypolicyhaslittleinfluenceonAS9-4The“Why”ofPolicyCentralbankschooseshort-runpolicywithtwogoalsinmind:MaintainhigheconomicactivityMaintainlowinflationrates

AnobviousconflictbetweenthesegoalsAdditionalconflictbetweencentralbank’spreferencesandcapabilitiesExceptathighinflationrates,boostingeconomicactivitydoesmuchmoretoenhanceeconomicwelfarethandoescontrollinginflationduetothedifferentslopesoftheSRASandLRASCentralbanksfocusonstabilizingeconomicactivityaroundasustainablegoal(Y*)andhavemovedtowardinflationtargeting9-5“When”PolicyIsMadeFOMCmeetseverysixweeksandsetsthefederalfundsrateFedtriesnotto“surprise”marketsSendsadvancesignalsofthelikelyfuturepathofinterestratesAteachmeetingappropriatelanguageischosentodescribetheFed’sthinkingaboutthenearfutureMarketslistentothesewordscloselyandreacttothesignalsthattheysendCurrentFedchairBenBernankehasemphasizedtheneedtoincreasesuchtransparency9-6“How”PolicyIsImplementedFed“sets”theinterestratebybuyingorsellingTreasurybillstolowerorraisetheinterestrateTheFedbuysTreasurybillswithmoneyitprints(electronically)LoweringinterestratesmeansincreasingthemoneysupplyTheincreasedmoneysupplyresults,eventually,inincreasedprices9-7

PolicyasaRuleWhencentralbanksetstheinterestrate,makesadecisiononthecurrenteconomicsituationUsefultosetthatdecisionwithintheoverallframeworkofamonetarypolicyruleAgeneralformatofamonetarypolicyruleis:

(1)

→r*isthereal,“natural”rateofinterest,correspondingtotherealinterestratewewouldobserveiftheeconomyoperatingatthefullemploymentlevelofoutput →Π*istheFed’stargetrateofinflation9-8

Ifαandβarelarge,thenthemonetaryruledictatesaggressiveresponsestoexcessinflationandtoeconomicboomsIfαislargerelativetoβ,thenthemonetaryauthoritywillrespondmuchmoreaggressivelytoinflationthanitwilltothelevelofeconomicactivityThecaseofβ=0correspondstopureinflationtargetingPolicyasaRule9-9InterestRatesandAggregateDemand

9-10Higherinterestratesraisetheopportunitycostofpurchasinggoodsforinvestmentandconsumption→reducingdemandIgnoringallotherelementsthataffectaggregatedemand,wecanwrite:

(2)IftheFedraisesinterestrates,theADcurveshiftstotheleftHigherinterestrateslowerprices,butalsoreduceeconomicactivityCalculatingHowtoHittheTargetStepstakenbyapolicymakerare:Determiningwhereoutputand