mckinsey -遠(yuǎn)程駕駛服務(wù)：移動(dòng)出行創(chuàng)新的下一個(gè)顛覆者 Remote-driving services -The next disruption in mobility innovation

Mcsey

&company

Automotive&AssemblyPractice

Remote-drivingservices:Thenextdisruptionin

mobilityinnovation?

Anewsurveyshowshighinterestinremote-drivingservicesthatletanotherpersoncontrolthecar.

byAniKelkar,KerstenHeineke,andMartinKellnerwithAnna-SophieSmith

January2025

Self-drivingcarsonceseemedbeyondtherealmofpossibility,buttheyarenowbeingpilotedoncitystreets.Nowanothermobilityinnovationhasemergedthatcouldaccelerateandcomplementautonomy:remotedriving.

Bycombiningsophisticatedcommunicationsystemswithreal-timevideofeeds,remote-driving

systemscaninstantlyconveyinformationaboutroadconditions,traffic,andunexpectedobstaclestooff-sitedriverswhocancontrolthevehicle’sbrakingandsteering(Exhibit1).Thesesystemscanbe

usedinalltypesofon-andoff-roadvehicles,regardlessofsize.

Remote-drivingsystemsarenotyetcommerciallyavailableforpassengercars;manypeoplemaynotevenknowthattheyareunderdevelopment.Weanalyzedthisnascentsectortoevaluatepotential

interestfromconsumers,fleets,andOEMs,aswellastounderstandlikelyusecases,marketsize,andessentialenablerssuchasconsumeracceptance,regulatoryclarity,andinsurancecoverage.

Ouranalysisconsideredhowremote-drivingsystemsmightenableorcomplementautonomous

vehicles(AVs)withadvancedcapabilities(definedasthoseclassifiedasLevel3orabovebythe

SocietyofAutomotiveEngineers).1Bothinnovationsaredesignedtoprovidegreaterconvenienceandfreedom—twobenefitsthatareespeciallyimportanttopremiumcarowners.AlthoughtheuseofAVs

mightgrowinthecomingyears,theywilllikelyfacemanyoperatingrestrictionsbecauseofsafety

concernsandtechnologyconstraints.IfAVsarealsoequippedwithremote-drivingcapabilities,driverscouldactivatetheminareaswhereautonomousdrivingisforbiddenorunfeasible,therebyextending

theiroperatingrange.

Self-drivingcarsonceseemedbeyondtherealmofpossibility,buttheyarenowtestedoncitystreets.Another

mobilityinnovation,remotedriving,hasemergedtocomplementthem.

1Level3autonomousvehiclescanhandlesteering,braking,andaccelerationwithouthumaninputundercertainconditions.

Remote-drivingservices:Thenextdisruptioninmobilityinnovation?2

Exhibit1

Remote-drivingsystemsallowof-siteoperatorstocontrolavehicle’sbrakingandsteeringfromanylocation.

Driversmay?ndit

inconvenientordi代culttogettoaservice

stationformaintenanceorrepairs.

Remote-drivingsystem(vehiclemaintenanceexample)

Typically,driversthatneedvehiclemaintenanceorrepairsmusttaketheirvehicletoaservicestation.

Ifavehiclehasremote-drivingcapabilities,

anof-siteoperatorcandirectthe

unoccupiedvehicletoaservicestation.

Ifaremoteoperator

directsvehiclesto

servicestations,drivershavemorefreetimeforworkorleisure.

Screendisplayscarcameraview

Steeringmirroredinthevehicle

Brakepedalsactonremotevehicle

Aftervehiclemaintenanceiscomplete,theremoteoperatordirectsthecarbacktothecustomer’shouse.

Ratherthanwaitinginaservicestationfor

severalhoursormore,driverscansimplyhaveremoteoperatorsdirect

theirvehiclestotheir

locationwhenserviceiscomplete.

McKinsey&Company

Remote-drivingservices:Thenextdisruptioninmobilityinnovation?3

Broadappealtoconsumers,fleets,andOEMs

Areconsumerscomfortablecedingvehiclecontroltoaremote-drivingsystem?Andwilltheywillinglypayforsuchservices?ArecentMcKinseysurveyofabout1,500carownersinChina,Germany,andtheUnitedStatesmaybethefirstresearchtoprovideanswerstosuchquestions.Amongthefindings:

—About70percentofpremiumcarownersand55percentofvolumecarownerssaytheywouldconsiderusingremote-drivingservices.

—Globally,thepricethatcarownerswouldbewillingtopayforremote-drivingservicesisabout

$53perhour,and40percentofrespondentsarewillingtopayupto$72perhour.

—Consumersestimatethattheywoulduseremote-drivingservicesabouttwiceweekly.

—Over70percentofpremiumand55percentofvolumecarownersclaimthattheywould

considerswitchingtotheirsecond-favoriteautomotivebrandifthiswouldgivethemaccesstoremotedriving.

Forconsumers,anenablerandcomplementtoautonomousdriving

Oursurveyspecificallyasksconsumerswhethertheypreferremotedrivingoverautonomousdriving(definedasLevel3orabove).Overall,athirdofrespondentssaytheyhavenopreferencebetween

thesetransportationmodes;oftheremainingtwo-thirds,58percentsaythattheypreferremotedrivingoverAVs.Respondentsalsorateremotedrivinghigherthanautonomousdrivingformanyfeatures,suchassafetyandtheabilitytoadapttounexpectedsituations.

WhileAVshavebeenunderdevelopmentforlongerthanremote-drivingservices,theirprogresshas

beenslowerthanexpected.A

2023McKinseysurvey

of86decisionmakersintheautonomous-drivingindustryshowedthatcommercialat-scaleadoptiontimelinesformultipleAVusecases,including

streetparkingandrobotaxioperation,hadbeenpushedbackbyanaverageoftwotothreeyears

comparedwiththetimelinespresentedinthe2021survey.IfremotedrivingreachesthemarketbeforethelaunchofLevel3autonomousdrivingforpassengercars,itwouldprovideconsumerswiththeir

firstexperienceinadriverlessvehicle.

EvenwhenLevel3AVsbecomemorewidelyavailable,remotedrivingmayremainanattractive

complementaryoption.About56percentofsurveyrespondentssaytheyaremorelikelytopurchaseanAVifitalsocontainsremote-drivingfeatures.Level3AVsequippedwithremote-drivingoptions

mayalsofacefeweroperatingrestrictionsthanotherAVs.2Forinstance,theymaybeallowedto

operateonmoreroadsorduringallweatherconditions,whileuseofotherAVsmightberestrictedtohighwaydrivingundergoodweather.Remotedrivingmightalsoreceiveapprovaltoserveasabackupforautonomousdrivinginsomeinstances,suchasfailureofLevel4systems.

Whenaskedaboutspecificfeatures,suchastheabilitytohandleemergencies,surveyrespondentsoftenrankedremotedrivinghigherthanautonomousdriving.

Exhibit2summarizesthemainfindingsonconsumerattitudesaboutremotedrivingandautonomousdriving.

2Level4autonomousvehiclesarecapableofhandlingmostfunctionswithouthumanintervention.

Remote-drivingservices:Thenextdisruptioninmobilityinnovation?4

Exhibit2

Moresurveyrespondentspreferredremotedrivingoverautonomousdriving.

Preferenceforremotedriving,shareofrespondents

~65%

ofcarownerswould

considerusing

remote-driving

services

~58%

preferremote

drivingover

autonomous

driving1

Comparisonofsentimenttowardremoteandautonomousdriving,%ofrespondentsbydrivingmode

17

48

35

19

46

35

23

33

44

23

34

43

21

36

43

21

37

42

22

38

40

19

41

39

20

41

39

26

40

34

49

18

33

RemoteNeitherAutonomous

Thinkitadaptstounexpectedscenariosbetter

Morecon?dentaboutemergencyhandling

Con?dentthatitwillmakeethicaldecisions

Feelsafer

Feelmoreincontrol

Consideritmoreregulationready

Feelmorecomfortablewiththistypeofdriving

Thinkitismorevaluable

Trustmorefromatechnologyviewpoint

Hopefulthatitwillreducetra代c

Thinkit’smorecost-e代cient

Note:Figuresmaynotsumto100%,becauseofrounding.

1Forthisanalysis,weincludedonlythoserespondentswhosaidtheyhadapreferenceforonemodeoftransportovertheother;thosewhowereneutralwerenotincludedintheanalysis.

Source:McKinseyRemoteDrivingSurvey2024(n=~1,500)

McKinsey&Company

Forbusinesses,aleverforincreasingefficiencyandreducingcosts

Oursurveydidnotspecificallyinvestigatecorporateuseofremotedriving,butwebelievethatmany

businessescouldbenefitfromtheseservices.Forexample,whenrentalfleetsrelocatevehiclesfromonebranchtoanother,theycouldrelyonremotedriving,ratherthantakinganon-siteemployeeawayfrommorepressingcustomer-serviceresponsibilities.Remotedrivingmayalsobealesscostlyoptionforvehicletransport.

Manyotherbusinesses,includingwarehouses,agriculturaloperations,anddefensecompanies,

mustalsomovevehiclesfrequently,eitherfromdifferentsiteswithinasinglelocationortodistantdestinations.Aswithrentalfleets,thesebusinessesmightincreaseefficiencyandreducecostsbyrelyingonremotedrivers.

OEMscouldenjoydualbenefits.Beyondincorporatingremote-drivingservicesintotheiroperations,theycouldalsoinstallthesefeaturesintotheirofferingsandpotentiallycreatenewrevenuestreams.

Remote-drivingservices:Thenextdisruptioninmobilityinnovation?5

Greaterfreedom,moreconvenience

Oursurveyrevealsthatconsumerswouldoftenbewillingtosummonaremotedriverviaasmartphoneapporin-carapplicationtogainfreetimeoravoidtedioustasks,withthefollowingusecasesrankinghighforrelevancyandlikelihoodofuse(Exhibit3):

Valetparking.ImaginethatacouplearrivehomelateonSundaynighttofindallparkingspotson

theirstreetareoccupied.Insteadofdrivingaroundandsearchingforanopenspacefor30minutes,theyaskaremotedrivertofindoneandparktheircar.Insomecases,theremotedrivercouldget

assistancefromintelligentinfrastructureequippedwithcamerasandsensors.

Vehiclemaintenance.Whenvehiclesneedrepairsormaintenance,carownerstypicallyneedtobringthemtoaservicestation.Usingaremotedriverforthistaskcouldgiveownersafewextrahoursfor

workorleisure.

Remotechauffeuring.Ifdriversarestuckintrafficbutneedtoattendtoothermatters—forexample,

animportantphonecalloracryinginfant—theycanactivateremote-drivingservices.Consumers

mightalsowelcomeremotechauffeuringinmanyothercircumstances,includinglatenightdriveswhentheyaretired,ortripstotheairport,wherecurbsidedrop-offandpickupmightbemoreconvenientandlessexpensivethanparking.Whileridehailingmightalsobeanoption,remotedrivingcouldpotentiallybelessexpensiveandwouldallowriderstousetheirownvehicle.

Deliveryofrentalvehiclesorsharedcars.Peoplepreparingforvacationsorinarushmayprefer

tohaveremotedriversdeliverrentalcarsorsharedvehicles,especiallyifthepickupsiteisfarfromtheirlocation.

Assistedmobility.Peoplewhocannotdrivebecauseofphysicalormentalimpairments,orwhohavefriendsorfamilymemberswithsuchimpairments,couldsummonrentalvehiclesfordoctorvisitsorothertransportationneeds.

Last-miledelivery.Topickuponlineordersfromadesignatedlocation—suchasastoreorpost

office—consumerscouldsummonaremotedrivertodrivetothepickuppoint,providedthatstoreorpostalemployeesarenotifiedandcanloadthepackageintothecar.Alternatively,consumersmightuseadedicatedremote-drivingdeliveryservice.

Refueling/recharging.Thisusecasecouldbeparticularlyvaluablefordriversofelectricvehicles(EVs),whomightotherwisehavetowaitanhourormoreatachargingstationastheyrepowertheirvehicles.Aswithlast-miledelivery,on-siteemployeesatthechargingstationwouldneedtoknowthatthe

vehicleisexpectedandtakethenecessarystepsforchargingorrefueling.

Remote-drivingservices:Thenextdisruptioninmobilityinnovation?6

Exhibit3

Consumersaremostlikelytouseremotedrivingforvaletparking,rentalcarhomedelivery,andmaintenancetrips.

Relevanceandusagelikelihoodofremote-drivingusecases,%ofrespondents

Relevance1Usagelikelihood2

48

56

Rentalcarhomedelivery

50

55

Valetparking

46

54

Assistedmobility

50

55

Remotedriveformaintenance

47

52

Carsharinghomedelivery

45

51

Remotechaufeur

47

52

(Last-mile)delivery

45

52

Remotedriveforrefueling/recharging

47

53

Average

1Includes“veryrelevant”and“relevant.”

2Includes“highlylikelytouse”and“l(fā)ikelytouse.”

Source:McKinseyRemoteDrivingSurvey2024(n=~1,500)

McKinsey&Company

Marketsegmentsandsizing

Wecreatedsomepotentialscenariostoestimatethefuturevalueoftheremote-drivingmarketbasedontwocriteria:

—anticipateduserbehavior(derivedfromsurveyfindingsaboutwillingnesstopayandothermetrics)

—thepredictednumberofvehiclesontheroadwithtechnologiesthatenableremotedriving(redundantbrakingandsteeringformostusecases)

Ouranalysissuggeststhattheremote-drivingmarketcouldreacharound$12billionby2030.WithanestimatedCAGRofabout5.5percent,themarketwouldreachavalueofapproximately$42billionby2040(Exhibit4).TheincreaseinAVswouldbethemaindriverofgrowth.

Remote-drivinguptakemayvarybyvehiclesegment.Inoursurvey,about66percentofdriversof

premiumcarssaytheyhaveapositiveviewofremotedriving,comparedwithonly43percentof

volumecardrivers.Premiumcardriversarealsomorelikelytogivehigherratingsforrelevancyand

likelihoodofuseforarangeofusecases,andtheaveragepricetheywerewillingtopayishigherthanthatofvolumedrivers.Overall,weexpectthatpremiumdriverscouldaccountforabout80percent

ofremote-drivingrevenues.Theymaybeoverrepresentedduringtheearlyyears,ifremotedriving

Remote-drivingservices:Thenextdisruptioninmobilityinnovation?7

Exhibit4

Theglobalmarketforremote-drivingservicesmightreachabout$42billionby2040.

Projectedmarketsize,$billionWeeklyusagefrequency,numberoftrips

Nonpremium

Premium

12

3

9

27

9

18

42

15

28

1.6

1.2

0.8

0.4

0.0

Premium

Nonpremium

203020352040203020352040

Note:Figuresmaynotsum,becauseofrounding.

Source:McKinseyRemoteDrivingSurvey2024(n=~1,500)

McKinsey&Company

isapproved,becausetheyarelikelytobeamongthefirstadopters.Thepremiumsegment’scontributiontototalrevenuesmaydecreaseovertime,asmorevolumecarsbecomeequippedwithLevel2+orLevel3autonomous-drivingcapabilities.

Themarket’smissingpieces

Beyondtechnologyadvances,manyotherfactorswilldeterminehowtheremote-drivingmarketevolves,includingthefollowing:

—Consumeracceptance.Oursurveysuggeststhatmanypeoplearealreadyopentoremote-driving

services,butitwillbeimportanttomonitoranychangesinpublicsentimentasdatafromnewstudiesbecomeavailable.

—Insurancecoverage.Ifremote-drivingservicesareapproved,regulatorsandinsurersmustcreate

clarityaboutliabilityforallstakeholders,includingOEMs,theremote-drivingservicesprovider,andtheremotedriver.Theymustalsoconductassessmentstodeterminethepotentialforinsurancecoverageandappropriatepolicypricing.Ifinsurersdeclinetocreateproductssuitableforremotedriving,serviceprovidersmayhavetoofferthem.

—Safetystudiesandregulatoryframeworks.Aswithautonomousdriving,regulatorswilltakeacloselookatremotedrivingbeforeapprovingpilotsormorewidespreaduse.Ifremotedrivingisapproved,OEMs

andotherswillalsoneedtonoteanyvariationsworldwidetoensurethattheirofferingscomplywithallregulations.Aswithanyinnovation,newproductsandservicesmaybecomeavailablemorequicklyifregulationsarefairlystandardworldwide.

Remote-drivingservices:Thenextdisruptioninmobilityinnovation?8

Findmorecontentlikethisonthe

McKinseyInsightsApp

Scan?Download?Personalize

Althoughstakeholderswillbejugglingmultipleprioritiesasremote-drivingservicesadvancethroughR&D,theymightwanttoconsidertakingseveralstepstomaintainmomentum.

OEMs

OEMsthatareinterestedinremote-drivingserviceswillcontinuetowanttodevelopandrefinetechnologyrequirements,oftenincollaborationwithpartners.Prioritiesincluderobust,low-latencycommunication

networksandcomprehensivecybersecurityprotectionsthatpreventoutsideinterference.OEMscould

alsohelpbuildpublictrustthrougheducationanddemonstrationsthatshowremotedriving’sbenefitsanddocumentitssafety.

Ifremote-drivingservicesreceiveregulatoryapproval,OEMsmightconsiderincludingaremote-drivingoptioninalargepartoftheirportfolio,potentiallyevenmakingitastandardoption.Giventhatpremiumdriversseemmoreopentoremotedriving,OEMsmightinitiallyfocusonthissegment.OEMsshouldalsoconsiderhowtoofferremote-drivingservices—forinstance,decidingwhetherfeesshouldbeleviedbysubscriptionorpay-per-hour.

Relatedtechnologybusinesses

Companiescouldpublicizetheresultsofpilots—forinstance,showinghowremotedrivingcanhandleunexpectedtrafficjamsonhigh-spe