中國城鎮(zhèn)基本養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)制度可持續(xù)性現(xiàn)狀-SPRP-CN-Index.ppt

1、中國城鎮(zhèn)基本養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)制度財(cái)務(wù)可持續(xù)性研究 The Financial Sustainability of Urban Basic Old Age Insurance System in China 中國社科院世界社保研究中心 Centre for International Social Security Studies(CISS), Chinese Academy of Social Sciences(CASS),2016年北京,負(fù)責(zé)人：鄭秉文 教授 Dir. by 2037, the retirement age for female will reach 60 years old, an

2、d the retirement age for male will be 65 years old. 6.賬戶基金制度累計(jì)結(jié)余的投資收益率為7%；Assuming rate of return of accumulated balance of Urban Basic Pension system is 7%.,三、中國城鎮(zhèn)基本養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)制度運(yùn)行的預(yù)測 Prediction and Evaluation to Urban basic old Age Insurance system Operation,（二）城鎮(zhèn)企業(yè)職工基本養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)制度運(yùn)行的預(yù)測 Demographics of enterpr

3、ise employees basic pension system 表1 2015-2050年城鎮(zhèn)職工基本養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)制度撫養(yǎng)比預(yù)測,資料來源：精算團(tuán)隊(duì)提供的數(shù)據(jù)。, Table1 Dependency Ratio of enterprise employees Pension system（prediction value, 2015 to 2050, %）,三、中國城鎮(zhèn)基本養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)制度運(yùn)行的預(yù)測 Financial Sustainability Prediction of Enterprise Employee s Basic Pension System, 基金收入：持續(xù)增加，2020年以

4、前基金收入增長速度保持在14%左右，之后基金收入規(guī)模擴(kuò)張速度放緩，占當(dāng)期財(cái)政收入的比重從2020年的21.02%上升到2035年的23.87%，之后緩慢下降到2050年的22.97%。 Revenue. In the calculation period, the fund revenue will keep increasing. Before 2020, the growth rate of fund revenue will keep at 14% and then the growth is slow down. Fund revenue will account for 17% to

5、 24% of homochronous fiscal revenue. The ratio will increase from 21.02% in 2020 to 23.87% in 2035, and then gradually decrease to 22.97% in 2050. 基金支出： 2030年之前，基金支出占當(dāng)年財(cái)政收入緩慢上升，之后制度贍養(yǎng)率上升并處于高位，基金支出規(guī)模開始擴(kuò)大，其占當(dāng)期財(cái)政收入的比例快速上升到2050年的24.13%。 Expenditure. Fund expenditures will account for 13%24% of homochron

6、ous fiscal revenue. Before 2030, the ratio increase gradually. And then the dependency ratio is at the high level, the fund expenditures begin to expand and the ration will increase to 24.13% in 2050.,三、中國城鎮(zhèn)基本養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)制度運(yùn)行的預(yù)測 Financial Sustainability Prediction of Enterprise Employee s Basic Pension Syst

7、em,圖1 2015-2050年城鎮(zhèn)職工基本養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)基金收支預(yù)測 資料來源：根據(jù)精算團(tuán)隊(duì)提供的數(shù)據(jù)。,Figure1 Fund Revenue and expenditure of Enterprise Employees Basic Pension System,三、中國城鎮(zhèn)基本養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)制度運(yùn)行的預(yù)測 Prediction and Evaluation to Urban basic old Age Insurance system Operation,（三）機(jī)關(guān)事業(yè)單位基本養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)制度運(yùn)行的預(yù)測 Prediction and Evaluation to GOPI( government or

8、gans and public institutions )Pension System Operation 表1 2015-2050年機(jī)關(guān)事業(yè)單位在職人員預(yù)測 單位：萬人,資料來源：張盈華，機(jī)關(guān)事業(yè)單位“名義賬戶”制養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)及其長期財(cái)務(wù)可持續(xù)性分析，載開發(fā)研究，2015年第3期，第8頁。, Table 1 Demographic Prediction of GOPI（2015 to 2090, 10 thousand）,Source: Zhang Yinghua, Notional Defined Contribution Pension System of GOPI and Analysi

9、s on its Long-term Fiscal Sustainability, Research on Development, NO.3, 2015:p.8.,三、中國城鎮(zhèn)基本養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)制度運(yùn)行的預(yù)測 Prediction and Evaluation to Urban basic old Age Insurance system Operation,（三）機(jī)關(guān)事業(yè)單位基本養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)制度運(yùn)行的預(yù)測, 表2 2015-2050年機(jī)關(guān)事業(yè)單位和企業(yè)的養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)制度贍養(yǎng)率比較,結(jié)論：因機(jī)關(guān)事業(yè)單位招募條件較嚴(yán)格，要求應(yīng)征者具備較高學(xué)歷水平，機(jī)關(guān)事業(yè)單位的內(nèi)部贍養(yǎng)率明顯高于企業(yè),Prediction

10、and Evaluation to GOPI(government organs and public institutions )Pension System Operation, Table 2 Dependency Ratio of GOPI or Urban Enterprise Pension system,Conclusion：The dependency Ratio of GOPI is higher than enterprises employees old age insurance.,三、中國城鎮(zhèn)基本養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)制度運(yùn)行的預(yù)測 Prediction and Evaluatio

11、n to Urban basic old Age Insurance system Operation,(三)機(jī)關(guān)事業(yè)單位制度基金收支預(yù)測/Prediction and Evaluation to GOPI 基金收入：持續(xù)增加，各年基金收入占當(dāng)年財(cái)政收入比在4-6%之間。2050年之前，機(jī)關(guān)事業(yè)單位在編人數(shù)擴(kuò)增，基金收入規(guī)模擴(kuò)張速度較快，占當(dāng)年財(cái)政收入的比例從4%升至5.5%； Revenue. In the calculation period, the fund revenue will keep increasing, but the growth rate will increase

12、first and then decrease. The growth rate of fund revenue will be constant at 7% between 2040 and 2046, and it will decrease to 6.8% in 2050(see Figure 2). Besides, fund revenue will account for 4%6% of homochronous fiscal revenue. Before 2050, the ratio will rise from 4% to 5.5%, after 2050, it will

13、 rise slightly from 5.5% to 6%, primarily as a result of expectation that the permanent staff of GOPI will increase first and decrease. 基金支出：先減后增，各年基金支出占當(dāng)年財(cái)政收入比在4-9%之間。在2035年之前，延退政策抑制領(lǐng)取待遇人數(shù)擴(kuò)增的速度，基金支出占當(dāng)年財(cái)政收入比重下降；2035年之后，延退過渡期結(jié)束，加之制度贍養(yǎng)率上升并處于高位，基金支出規(guī)模開始擴(kuò)大； Expenditure. In the calculation period, fund e

14、xpenditure will decrease first and then increase, which will account for 4%9% of the homochronous fiscal revenue. The growth rate of fund expenditure will be about 7%, and after 2034, the rate will increase from 8.1% in 2034 to 11.4% in 2041.Before 2035, the delay retirement policy restrains the gro

15、wth in the number of beneficiaries, and the ratio of fund expenditure to homochronous fiscal revenue drops; after 2035, the transition period of delay retirement will be over, and the dependency ratio will rise and remain high, the scale of the fund expenditure will begin to,三、中國城鎮(zhèn)基本養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)制度運(yùn)行的預(yù)測 Pred

16、iction and Evaluation to urban basic Old Age Insurance System Operation,資料來源：根據(jù)精算團(tuán)隊(duì)提供的數(shù)據(jù)繪制而成。,Figure 2 The fund revenue and fund expenditure of GOPI (%),圖2 機(jī)關(guān)事業(yè)單位基金收支預(yù)測(%),三、中國城鎮(zhèn)基本養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)制度運(yùn)行的預(yù)測 Prediction and Evaluation to urban basic Old Age Insurance System Operation, 歷史債務(wù)：即轉(zhuǎn)軌成本，是原有制度下所積累的養(yǎng)老金權(quán)益的折現(xiàn)值，

17、包括“老人”的退休金和“中人”視同繳費(fèi)的賬戶價(jià)值。各年分?jǐn)偟臍v史債務(wù)占當(dāng)年財(cái)政收入的比重逐年下降，大約每10年下降一個(gè)百分點(diǎn)； History Debts of the system. That is Transition Cost of pension system which equals to the current value of the pension rights and interests accumulated under the old system, including two parts of the “old workers” pension expenditure

18、and “transition workers” pension expenditure which is corresponding to deemed contribution. The history debts will be shared year by year, which declines by one percentage point approximately every 10 year.,Table3 The proportion of history debts in homochronous fiscal revenue（in 2015 to 2050, %） 圖3

19、2015-2050年機(jī)關(guān)事業(yè)單位制度歷史債務(wù)占同期財(cái)政收入的比重,樣本國家：德國、瑞典、法國和西班牙 Sample Countries: Sweden、Germany、France and Spain （1）政府負(fù)責(zé)的DB制度待遇水平將合理下降 Pension Benefits of DB plan will reduce gradually （2）提高法定退休年齡，逐漸實(shí)現(xiàn)男女同齡退休 Raise retirement age, gradually realizing the equal retirement age of men and female （3）建立獎(jiǎng)懲機(jī)制，通過懲罰提前退休、

20、獎(jiǎng)勵(lì)延遲退休，充分發(fā)揮人力資本作用。 Establish the Rewards and Punishments Mechanism linked with legal Retirement Age （4）運(yùn)用精算技術(shù)修正制度參數(shù)，雙重約束下引入人口老齡化因子建立財(cái)務(wù)自我反饋機(jī)制，增強(qiáng)財(cái)務(wù)可持續(xù) Establish Financial Balance Mechanism via introducing the aging population factor （5）發(fā)揮市場機(jī)制作用，逐步從單一的公共養(yǎng)老金制度模式向多層次養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)制度體系邁進(jìn) Make full use of market mec

21、hanism to push the pension system from a single mode to multiple-level pension system,四、歐盟國家公共養(yǎng)老金制度改革的經(jīng)驗(yàn)借鑒,EU Public Pension System Reform and Its Experiences,（1）降低社會(huì)保險(xiǎn)費(fèi)率，合理確定繳費(fèi)基數(shù) Reduce the contribution rate of old age insurance and establish the reasonable contribution base （2）推進(jìn)實(shí)現(xiàn)全國統(tǒng)籌，增強(qiáng)制度的便攜性 Pr

22、omote National Pooling as soon as possible to Enhance the Portability of Urban Basic Old Age Insurance System （3）堅(jiān)持精算平衡原則，增強(qiáng)制度財(cái)務(wù)可持續(xù)性 Enhance the Financial Sustainability of Basic Pension System via the principle of Actuarial Balance 采用長期精算技術(shù)，合理確定制度參數(shù)，例如，記賬利率和計(jì)發(fā)月數(shù) Taking long-term actuarial technology and use reasonable system parameters, such as, accounting rate 建立正常養(yǎng)老金調(diào)整機(jī)制，以適應(yīng)新常態(tài) Establish Normal Pension Adjustment Mechanism Adapting to Chinas New Normal 漸進(jìn)式延遲退休年齡，構(gòu)建獎(jiǎng)懲機(jī)制 Delay Legal Retirement Age and Construct Rewards and Punishment Mechanism,五、完善城鎮(zhèn)基本養(yǎng)老保險(xiǎn)制度的政策建議 Policy Proposa