中國央行操縱匯率指控不成立

1、中國央行操縱匯率指控不成立the "china central bank，s manipulation of the exchange rate，? is not truechins's currency has rallied against the dollar in the past three days but amid the rare devaluation of the renminbi over the past two weeks, the industry，s debate has continued in this sharp devaluation,

2、china，s central bank has been acting differently than usual, making central bank manipulation of the devaluation of the renminbi" a mainstream view.the theory of manipulation should answer three questions: why the central bank controls the exchange rate? how to control? is there a purpose? howe

3、ver, the existing analysis fails to answer these questionslook back at a history of the devaluation of the renminbi.affected by the crisis, in early december, 2011, 12 consecutive days of their currency against the us dollar tumbled and cny in intraday trading market price among the relative price c

4、lose to 0. 5% of the drop stop every day. the central bank，s response was not to comply with the market, but to do the opposite, setting the central price not only not only, but also slightly higher this is done to keep the yuan down. because the background is, downward pressure on the conduction fr

5、om the overseas market to the domestic market, but there is no limit to the amplitude due to overseas market, so the cnh market in hong kong, the drop is larger than domestic, overseas dollar price is higher than domestic buying dollars in the territory, seiling dollars outside the country, and the

6、ability to arbitrage without risk, keep the dollar flowing from china to the outside world as a result, the central bank's management of the central price, at the time, reached the point of crowding out the dollar and easing the flow of liquidityconsider the latest round of devaluations ample li

7、quidity in the chinese market after the spring festival, and out in january, according to the unrest in other emerging market countries, under the condition of capital outflows, china cross-border capital inflows, not only not reversed, but there are signs of increasing many argue that the central b

8、ank，s manipulation of the renminbi is meant to change the flow of capital and manage liquidity but the reality is that this time, the domestic market decline faster than the market overseas, hong kong cnh market dollar price is lower than the domestic, abroad to buy dollars and sell in the scan achi

9、eve risk-free arbitrage, as a result the dollar inflows rather than outflows, increase rather than decrease pressure of the currency. in addition, the people's bank of china to be successful on the yuan, it is necessary to the operation of a large number of buying dollars, and to make the status

10、 of the dollar to appear on the market demand greater than supply. the operation also needs to increase the renminbi, rather than tighten liquidity as a result, in the context of domestic and foreign markets, the actual outcome is in the opposite direction of the central bank，s "manipulatiort,

11、which is why it cannot be establishedthis round of depreciation is more of a market action to begin withdrawing quantitative easing by the federal reserve and emerging market countries to a new round of instability, the influence of the yuan against the dollar in the last trading day of 2013, the me

12、dian price of first break after 6. 1, the rmb exchange rate hasn，t any continudtion, middle price began to weaken, intraday trading spreads narrowed with middle price then the risk of china's economy has been accumulated, and the emergence of new uncertainties, especially in january in pmi, has

13、affected the market confidence, domestic short voice began to appear, lead to weaker renminbi exchange rate further in mid to late february. the change in the renminbi exchange rate in china also illustrates this point over the past two weeks cny parity value around 100 points, reflect market supply

14、 and demand of intraday trading value range is greater than the median price, more than 1200 points, trading also from below the median level fall to flat even higher than the middle price if the central price reflects the central bank，s management intentions, the combination shows that the central

15、bank is on the way, rather than manipulating it.why is china，s central bank happy? rmb rate is significantly higher than the main currency, foreign exchange market of rmb 2013 sustained appreciation pressure and unilateral appreciation, spreads, rate exist at the same time, to do more than rmb profi

16、t almost no risk, stimulate the speculative, the arbitrage capital inflows that is why, in the past, china has been a temporary haven for international capita1.the people* s bank of china should be very worried about the current capital inflows reverse the risk of serious problems in the future, in

17、this context, coincided with the devaluation of rmb exchange rate on the market, squeezed the profit space of the speculative capital inflows, have inhibition to inflows of speculative capita 1. in addition, although in some domestic and overseas rate arbitrage capital inflows, but this part of the

18、capital is mostly real needs under the principle of export foreign exchange settlement in advance, only in the short term the currency pressure increase, and the decrease of speculative capital inflows, and depreciation is expected to encourage some capital outflows, the overall look will relieve th

19、e pressure on liquidity too loose from this point of view, it is easy to understand the attitude of the people，s bank of chinaforeign investment banks have been particularly active in the allegations against the central bank, and some have expressed concern about the potential for losses in chinese

20、companies the reality is that china's financial institutions both in domestic and overseas, limited by regulatory requirements, mainly for chinese enterprises to deal with conservative business hedging, while outside the territory of foreign investment banks are not affected by this restriction,

21、 can be completely based on customer requirements to provide a wider range of business, including establishing all kinds of speculative positions the depreciation of the renminbi has led to a decline in profits in the past based on appreciation of the renminbi and a sharp contraction in customer dem

22、and for the future. accusing the central bank of manipulation is actually putting pressure on the people，s bank of china, forcing the central bank to intervene in the market, and demanding protection from the people，s bank of china this round of depreciation is no more than 1.5%, and some of the maj

23、or currencies in the international foreign exchange market some fluctuation is more than the amplitude of a day, when those who accuse the manipulation of the depreciation of the people，s bank of china for export of wulitou more competitive advantagethe renminbi，s exchange rate is less likely to devalue the attitude towards the depreciation of the people's bank of china released a signal: the future management of the exchange rat