美國汽車市場

1、1美國汽車物流2Schenker AG & BAX Global提綱提綱1.美國汽車市場2. 美國汽車的流通模式3. 美國整車物流行業(yè)的運(yùn)作模式3來源：Standard & Poor and J.D. Power and Associates1. 1. 美國汽車市場美國汽車市場1 據(jù)預(yù)測， 2008年美國的汽車整車銷售將低于1500萬輛，比2007年銷售下降100多萬輛2 至1998年以來，美國的輕型轎車銷售量從未低于1600萬輛4來源：美國和亞洲汽車制造實(shí)踐對比2. 2. 汽車流通模式：美國汽車流通模式：美國 VS VS 亞洲亞洲1 美國中間商少，利潤高：生產(chǎn)商distrib

2、ution center（配送中心）經(jīng)銷商2 亞洲中間商多，利潤低：生產(chǎn)商一級中間商二級中間商最終經(jīng)銷商5Schenker AG & BAX GlobalCustomerUnderstandingMarketingProductInnovationDesignInboundLogisticsSupply of PartsSupply of ComponentsAftermarketServicesCar SalesDelivery tomarketFinal CarAssemblyTier 3 Supplier Importer/DealerSupply of Modules/Syst

3、ems Tier 2 Supplier 一級 供應(yīng)商制造商制造商Tier 0 SupplierFinished GoodsDistributionProduction Supply LogisticsGlobal SourcingLogisticsAfter Sales Logistics Supply Chain Management Solutions / Value Added ServicesMfc.美國汽車物流美國汽車物流LSP6Schenker AG & BAX Global3 美國整車物流的運(yùn)作模式（以美國整車物流的運(yùn)作模式（以Ford 和和Honda為例）為例）OEM的

4、采購流程的采購流程3PL for Ford Penske Worldwide Logistics FedEx Autogistics（Ford和UPS的合資企業(yè) ） IT ：Unixbased Logistics system3PL for Honda CSX transportation and BNSF （railway）OEM的決策因素的決策因素縮短運(yùn)輸時(shí)間 使用（OTD）7Schenker AG & BAX GlobalService2004 - 20062007ForwardingPrice/RatesPrice/Rates Risk AversionRisk Aversio

5、n QualityProcess Optimization Process OptimizationQuality Financial StabilityReferences ReferencesFinancial StabilityNAFTA Automotive Logistic ChallengesLP Win/Loss Analysis Based On Customer Decision Drivers20%20% of forwarding RFQs have increased their focus on process optimizationForwarding is st

6、ill predominately price driven8Schenker AG & BAX GlobalNAFTA Automotive Logistic ChallengesLP Win/Loss Analysis Based On Customer Decision DriversService2004 - 20062007Warehousing/JIS/AssyPrice/RatesPrice/Rates Risk AversionProcess Optimization QualityQuality Financial StabilityReferences Proces

7、s OptimizationRisk Aversion ReferencesReferences73% of decisions are based on process optimization initiatives proposed in the initial biddingFixed “Wall/people/process, IT” are open for optimization at bidding phase73%9Schenker AG & BAX GlobalNAFTA Automotive Logistic ChallengesService2004 - 20

8、062007IT (Visibility Tooling)QualityQuality Process OptimizationProcess Optimization Risk AversionRisk Aversion ReferencesReferences Price/RatesPrice/Rates Financial StabilityFinancial StabilityLP Win/Loss Analysis Based On Customer Decision DriversNo change in decision priority.Implementation timin

9、g guarantees and start-up cost models alternatives linked to top three 10Schenker AG & BAX GlobalDB Group*nDB AG - management holding companynVertically integrated group structurenRating: Aa1 / AARevenues ( bn) (Addition BAX)Employees nNo. 1 in European rail passenger transportnNo. 1 in European

10、 public urban transportnNo. 1 in German bus transportPassenger TransportRevenues ( bn)Employees11.353,800nLargest rail track infrastructure in EuropenNo. 1 car sharing company in GermanynNo. 1 bicycle hire company in Europe Track infrastructure and ServiceRevenues ( bn)Employees1.284,900nNo. 1 in Eu

11、ropean rail freight transportnNo. 1 in European land transportnNo. 2 in air freightnNo. 3 in ocean freightnNo. 3 in North American integr. heavyweight freightnNo. 6 in contract logisticsTransport and LogisticsRevenues ( bn)(Addition BAX)Employees12.4(14.8)75,00025.1*(27.5)213,700*in 2005*Incl. 0.3 o

12、thers11Schenker AG & BAX GlobalNAFTA Automotive Logistic ChallengesbNAFTA Common TrendsI. Bundling of logistic services (demand side)A. OEMs and increasingly tier-1 want:One contract (multiple services)One overheadOne pricing moduleOne system (IT)Costs synergies through consolidation of services

13、 12Schenker AG & BAX GlobalNAFTA Automotive Logistic Challenges Logistic service providers are largely fragmented in service offeringOMS, VM&OIbut with a growing tendency. Outbound consolidation Forwardingto bundle services.CustomsInbound warehousingQuality checksLight & heavy assemblyJI

14、S/JITWaste ManagementComplete SCM transparency ITPartial In/boundProcess / Lean engineeringSpare parts logistics Returns management & repairProcurementProductionDistribution13Schenker AG & BAX GlobalCustomerUnderstandingMarketingProductInnovationDesignInboundLogisticsSupply of PartsSupply of

15、 ComponentsAftermarketServicesCar SalesDelivery tomarketFinal CarAssemblyTier 3 Supplier Importer/DealerSupply of Modules/Systems Tier 2 Supplier Tier 1 SupplierManufacturerTier 0 SupplierFinished GoodsDistributionProduction Supply LogisticsGlobal SourcingLogisticsAfter Sales Logistics Supply Chain

16、Management Solutions / Value Added ServicesMfc.NAFTA Automotive Logistic ChallengesServices are largely fragmented based on core competence of LSP14Schenker AG & BAX GlobalPrice/RatesDecisionNAFTA Automotive Logistic ChallengesKey Customer Decision Drivers for choosing LPs.Service QualityReferen

17、cesProcessInnovationRiskAversionFinancialStability15Schenker AG & BAX GlobalNAFTA Automotive Logistic ChallengesModern competition amongst Lead Service Providers (LSP)LSP 1LSP 2Developing a USP: best network, best IT, newest assets, best locations16Schenker AG & BAX GlobalNAFTA Automotive Lo

18、gistic ChallengesLSP 1LSP 2LSP 1.time to re-think about competition.redirect that energy to the benefit of the customer17Schenker AG & BAX GlobalNAFTA Automotive Logistic Challenges1. Cooperation amongst logistic providersn OEMs/tier-1 are starting to “encourage” partnership to achieve synergies

19、n Based on experience OEM/suppliers know which LP is good with what service; i.e. whom they feel comfortable working for specific servicesn OEMs/suplliers have experienced that there is not real “jack of all traits” LP, that is good at every service, everywhere n Work together or dont work for usn O

20、EMs/tier-1 are starting to encourage partnership as opposed to LPs choosing their partner n This incentive by OEM/tier-1 started in NAFTA, partially based on EUs success using that strategy 18Schenker AG & BAX GlobalMarket Research (Mercer & Frauenhofer)Nr. of OEMNr. of suppliersl 50% reduct

21、ion of suppliersl Emergence of mega suppliersl Increase in added value to suppliersl Increased expectation of suppliers quality-additional/new engineering requirements- addtional resources- increased partnership“ approaches- national to international responsibilities Number of OEMSNumber of supplier

22、sLPs too are following the same pathNAFTA Automotive Logistic Challenges19Schenker AG & BAX GlobalNAFTA Automotive Logistic Challenges2. Light & heavy assembly as an integral part of SCMA. Demand for value-add services are developing to include assembly functionsB. Why?Shortage of production

23、 space at OEM/tier-1Cheaper on account of wage structureLess FTE on OEM/tier-1 payrollC. Services are predominately rendered outside OEM/tier-1 facilityD. Demand is growing in particular where warehouse outsourcing opportunities have already existE. In the majority of cases inventory is owned by LPF

24、. Modules (IPs, engine dressing, axles, etc.) G. Emergence of production and engineering oriented LP20Schenker AG & BAX GlobalNAFTA Automotive Logistic Challenges3. VM&OI(Vendor Managed & Owned Inventory) A. Increase in demand for VM&OI for intercontinental supply chains- China to US

25、- inbound B. Supply chains with high value-add components (i.e. forwarding with: warehousing, quality control, light assembly) C. Supply chains with high commodity value D. International banks are increasingly addressing this demand by offering new solutions to LPs VMI: a process in which a supplier

26、 generates orders for its distributor based on demand information sent by the distributor The coordination of information, material and finances ranging from procurement, production and distribution including waste management21Schenker AG & BAX GlobalNAFTA Automotive Logistic Challenges4. Establ

27、ishing Data Standards (SCM Visibility)Facts*: “15% of all US bound ocean freight containers with automotive parts are delayed because of data deficiencies” (Industry Action Group)“46% of OEMs move more cargo on an expedite basis than 2 years ago”“37% of OEM and 40% of suppliers maintain costly buffe

28、rs that exceed 20 days”“79% of all information is re-keyed multiple times” “If supply chain visibility has become the Holy Grail for just about every manufacturer, why is financial data relating to cost of the supply chain barely on the radar of many companies” Marcia Macleod Automotive Logistics, J

29、uly/August 2007*(AMR, Journal of Commerce, May 28, 2007)22Schenker AG & BAX GlobalNAFTA Automotive Logistic ChallengesMOSS Material Off-Shore SourcingObjective: develop industry standards for data communication that speeds up the flow and accuracy of goods (AIAG with GM, DCX, Honda and Ford)*Wit

30、h new global industry standards for data communication in the process of being developed, should logistics provider continue to invest heavily in in-house SCM visibility tools or promote a future standard?*(AMR, Journal of Commerce, May 28, 2007)23Schenker AG & BAX GlobalNAFTA Automotive Logisti

31、c Challenges5. NAFTAs rush to LCCS (Low Cost Country Suppliers) A. Generic reasons for going to LCCSCosts.Forecasted volumes: i.e.China plans to produce 10-15 million cars by 2020B. Theory vs. RealityTheory: LCCS allow you to reduce costs, increase profit marginReality: Different culture (politics,

32、socio-economic, infrastructure and mind set often off-set these profits C. Why?Slow know-how transfer to LCCDifferent quality standards Lack of management & infrastructure from OEM/tier-1 in LCCLack of economic and cultural know howResult: Unbudgeted additional cost and lost of timeQuestion for

33、LPs : How long will the economic boom last? What are the success chances for late market entry of LPs?24Schenker AG & BAX GlobalNAFTA Automotive Logistic ChallengesD. What does that mean for NAFTA LPs dealing with LCC? Higher degree of flexibility from LPs LPs require a solidly established infra

34、structure in LCC (legal, HR, quality, operation, partnerships, finance, IT, etc.) Successful SCM requires true partnership approach between client and LPs to tackle the continuously changing demands and opportunities for both client and LPsTrend: Several OEMs and tier-1 are returning “home” and re-d

35、iscovering Mexico as a viable alternative option as an LCCLabor in MexicoSalary in production area:10-30 US$/day Average : 15US$Hours worked/week: 48 hoursAverage work days: 6 days/week25Schenker AG & BAX GlobalNAFTA Automotive Logistic ChallengesSummary:1. LCC have a massive logistic opportunit

36、ies but are not the often anticipated “overnight success”2. Understanding & respecting the LCC culture as well as the willingness in a long term investment is a precondition for LPs.3. For NAFTA OEMs and tier-1 a renewed focus toward Mexico has emerged as a viable alternative (low labor costs, l

37、ower transportation costs as compared to, for instance China, faster access and intervention in processes is possible) .Mexico is being re-discovered.As one of the three countries in NAFTA, Mexico is part of thelargest automotive worldmaket.26Schenker AG & BAX Global6. Increase Built to OrderA.

38、Increase in customers willingness to wait for the car with the right specs (Europe is showing opposite trend 3-6 months waiting is too long)B. Increase in inbound supply chain complexity (JIS/JIT) C. This trend is creating opportunities for LSP that have experience in inbound build-to-order sequenci

39、ng and assembly NAFTA Automotive Logistic ChallengesMove from BTS to BTO is still in the emerging phase27Schenker AG & BAX GlobalNAFTA Automotive Logistic Challenges7. Railway facts.A. The growing concentration of OEMs in S. USA and Mexico, is resulting in a growing demand for more efficient rai

40、l infrastructure and servicesB.Inconsistent transit times, rail capacity shortages and likely price increases are key issues to be resolved. D.The difficulties in resolving these issues stem from the risk of high infrastructure investments that are needed versus the demand uncertainty (will production volumes degrees in NAFTA and move to Asia?)E.“Short Sea” alternative is increasingly becoming more popular.F.The developing rail infrastructure is forcing a healthy competition for transport alternatives: rail,