2018年中國奢侈品市場研究中英

1、本報(bào)告作者：（Bruno Lannes），公司全球合伙人、大中華區(qū)消費(fèi)品和零售業(yè)務(wù)領(lǐng)導(dǎo)成員，常駐上海。© 本冊著作權(quán)歸奢侈品市場的增長引擎摘要2018年，奢侈品市場連續(xù)第二年實(shí)現(xiàn)20%增長消費(fèi)回流、對千禧一代的重視、數(shù)字化發(fā)展，以及益匪淺中產(chǎn)階級的不斷壯大，品牌獲盡管總體增勢強(qiáng)勁，但品牌之間差異巨大，領(lǐng)先品牌增長超過25%，落后者則低于10%； 品牌的致勝戰(zhàn)略為未來發(fā)展提供借鑒、指明方向奢侈品市場勢如破竹，2018年機(jī)器，四臺引擎完美配合，馬力全開。延續(xù)了2017年20%的驚人增速(見圖1)。它猶如一臺強(qiáng)大的超過70%的千禧一代表示對財(cái)務(wù)前景持樂觀態(tài)度，81%預(yù)計(jì)收入將有所上升。引擎

2、1：消費(fèi)回流下調(diào)進(jìn)口關(guān)稅、對灰色市場加強(qiáng)管控，各大奢侈品牌持續(xù)調(diào)整國內(nèi)外市場價差等因素的共同作用下，越來越多的消費(fèi)者選擇在內(nèi)地市場購買奢侈品，而不是像過去那樣為了購買更便宜的，前往、首爾、東京和一些歐洲城市。2018年，消費(fèi)者在內(nèi)地的奢侈品消費(fèi)比例由2015年的23%上升到27%。預(yù)計(jì)，到2025年將達(dá)到50% (見圖2)。但這并不意味著消費(fèi)者將減少在海外市場的消費(fèi)。目前， 圖3)。消費(fèi)者的奢侈品消費(fèi)占到全球市場份額的33% (見1奢侈品市場的增長引擎圖 1: 在千禧一代和女性品類的推動下，2018年內(nèi)地奢侈品市場保持了20%的增速CAGR CAGR CAGR (1116) (1617) (1

3、718)200017001420150011701160114011401130107010002%5000201112131415161718 圖 2: 消費(fèi)回流的趨勢將在未來幾年延續(xù)%4107608501600100%80604020 0201120152320182025E29% 2502720%20% 2018 2017 帖 奢侈品市場的增長引擎圖 3: 2018年消費(fèi)者的奢侈品消費(fèi)總額占全球市場份額的33%書%CAGR (0010)4%CAGR (1015)8%CAGR (1518)2%1160167024502600100%7%11%1%8019%31% 33%33%19%2%60

4、 10%40 22%20 18%02000201020152018100% 引擎2：千禧一代23至38歲的消費(fèi)者對奢侈品不僅有消費(fèi)意愿，也有足夠的消費(fèi)能力。匯豐銀行發(fā)布的磚瓦之上：住房的意義調(diào)查報(bào)告中指出，千禧一代的住房擁有率高達(dá)70%，是的兩倍（見圖4）。父母的資助是他們購買時尚奢侈品的資金來源之一。此外，他們對奢侈品非常了解，對高級時裝和品服飾跨界融合這樣的創(chuàng)新潮流趨之若鶩。他們是奢侈品牌品類的消費(fèi)主力軍，典型產(chǎn)巴黎2017年發(fā)布的Triple S系列鞋，直到2018年仍然熱度不減，以及攜手Supreme聯(lián)名發(fā)布的一系列配飾，后者是植根于滑板的時尚品牌。與前幾代人不同，千禧一代更癡迷于他們

5、眼中的“炫酷”元素，而非品牌本身或定價。對他們來說，重要的是創(chuàng)新，而不是折扣。他們熱衷于社交媒體，喜歡在網(wǎng)上發(fā)表觀點(diǎn)。與其他段表現(xiàn)相同的是，千禧一代中女性的奢侈品消費(fèi)同樣超出同齡男性。2018年，化妝品這一傳 統(tǒng)女性品類增長超過25%，而由男性消費(fèi)者主導(dǎo)的腕表品類增長不到10%。3奢侈品市場的增長引擎圖 4:千禧一代對奢侈品有充足的消費(fèi)能力 2% 3%7046413538%57%3534312826 38%#4534 20172澦澧4奢侈品市場的增長引擎引擎3：數(shù)字化發(fā)展作為奢侈品銷售的第三個增長引擎，數(shù)字化同時涵蓋了商務(wù)和基于數(shù)字化平臺的消費(fèi)者互動。其中，消費(fèi)者互動方面已取得很大進(jìn)步，而商務(wù)

6、領(lǐng)域則進(jìn)展甚微（盡管量頗為龐大）。線上的奢侈品銷售額在2018年實(shí)現(xiàn)了27%的增長，占奢侈品銷售總額的10%（見圖5），但這一波增長仍然主要受化妝品品類驅(qū)動，其他品類的線上滲透率依然很低。在國內(nèi)的奢侈品市場中，有四類線上較為活躍（見圖6）。品牌自營（如H），也就是我們所謂的品牌官網(wǎng)：品牌掌握最終權(quán)，提供正價。平臺旗艦店（如天貓旗艦店、微店等）：品牌擁有一定權(quán)，同時也可以利用平臺帶來的流量。購物平臺（如京東Toplife、天貓奢侈品頻道等）：品牌外包大流量魅力惠）：主要為打折出售的奢侈品提供銷售平臺。的建立和運(yùn)營工作。名品折扣網(wǎng)（如寺庫、2018年，越來越多的品牌選擇與領(lǐng)先的電商平臺建立合作，擴(kuò)

7、大線上業(yè)務(wù)覆蓋，還有一些則繼續(xù) 努力發(fā)展品牌官網(wǎng)。圖 5: 線上品類以外的奢侈品銷售額增速依然快于線下門店，但整體處于較低水平除化妝品CAGR (1718)20%200017001420150011701130100017%5000201516817918%6 51027%奢侈品市場的增長引擎圖 6: 在國內(nèi)的奢侈品市場上，有四類線上較為活躍 參 2019 27620澝26 澝30 澝枉 2018年，大型活動也頗為活躍，亮點(diǎn)： 京東和L Catterton對寺庫進(jìn)行1.75億投資 歷峰集團(tuán)（Richemont）收購Yoox Net-a-Porter（YNAP） YNAP與阿里巴巴建立戰(zhàn)略合作

8、Farfetch并購京東旗下Toplife如此密集的活動催生了三類新興系統(tǒng)：品牌官網(wǎng)建立的系統(tǒng)，以及同阿里巴巴或京東合作建立的系統(tǒng)（見圖7）。畢竟，這是一個“全”至上的。隨著時間的推移，奢侈品牌越來越了解如何整合線上線下銷售、如何利用數(shù)字互動提升門店進(jìn)客率，以及如何店內(nèi)體驗(yàn)。的品牌會不斷總結(jié)和汲取全方面的經(jīng)驗(yàn)和教訓(xùn)。目前，他們正在為實(shí)體店的布局調(diào)整進(jìn)行周密規(guī)劃，并日注大型門店管理和可比門店增長。 愛馬仕（Hermès）在舉辦的“Silk Mix”活動就是品牌“全”舉措的一個生動案例：快閃店和了數(shù)以千計(jì)的消費(fèi)者參與現(xiàn)場活動。小程序的創(chuàng)新組合既提升了品牌公眾號流量，也吸引6 3250 參

9、163430481120Toplife 10 14Net-a-Porter 2222 Yoox 2323 Farfetch50703131欓 27472542 奢侈品市場的增長引擎圖 7: 近期密集的活動在國內(nèi)市場催生了三類新興的奢侈品線上系統(tǒng) 7奢侈品市場的增長引擎引擎4：迅速壯大的中產(chǎn)階級公司在世界論壇上發(fā)布的研究指出，到2027年，中產(chǎn)階級的規(guī)模將進(jìn)一步擴(kuò)大，約占家庭總數(shù)的65%。所有跡象均表明，城市人口的人均收入正在不斷上升。中產(chǎn)階級群體的迅速壯大，將源源不斷地為奢侈品行業(yè)帶來首次購買奢侈品的買家。各品牌業(yè)績差異盡管奢侈品市場的整體銷售勢不可擋，但并非所有品牌都能露出勝利者的笑容。隨著

10、收入的不斷增長，消費(fèi)者在奢侈品上的開銷持續(xù)走高，但他們的口味也日益挑剔。部分品牌比其他品牌更迎合消費(fèi)者需求，也因此，形成了品牌間良莠不齊的業(yè)績表現(xiàn)，這與2017年的觀察結(jié)果頗為相似。事實(shí)上，有些品牌已經(jīng)連續(xù)兩年取得卓，另一些則恰恰相反，業(yè)績連年下滑。這樣兩極分化的對比有多強(qiáng)烈呢？我們可以看到，2018年收入躋身前20的時尚奢侈品牌中，增長超過25%與低于10%的品牌之比約為1:2（見圖8）。8奢侈品市場的增長引擎我們品牌業(yè)績成果進(jìn)行了更深入的調(diào)查，試圖找出造成如此巨大差異的。經(jīng)過研究，我們發(fā)現(xiàn)：首先，的品牌往往通過數(shù)字化和社交媒體深化消費(fèi)者滲透，較為常見前40大奢侈品牌的數(shù)字的是利用更年輕化、

11、休閑化的系列吸引千禧一代。2015年至今，化預(yù)算幾乎翻了一番，其中有4070 %用于（見圖9）。這些領(lǐng)先品牌通過識別并鎖定目標(biāo)客戶，進(jìn)行線上線下銷售（見圖10）。例如，雅詩蘭黛（Estée Lauder）的客戶可以通過預(yù)約面部護(hù)理，蔻馳（Coach）的客戶則可以通過社交媒體平臺領(lǐng)取券并管理會員卡。我們在品牌身上發(fā)現(xiàn)的第二大致勝要素是加快上新和門店櫥窗更新速度，積極迎合千禧一代對新潮事物的追求。最后還有一個區(qū)別要素：規(guī)模越大，知名度越高的品牌正在從規(guī)?；蝎@得優(yōu)勢。隨著各項(xiàng)市場經(jīng)營的成本也不斷攀費(fèi)用的上漲，租金、組織活動、與KOL合作，導(dǎo)致品牌升。大型品牌的規(guī)模優(yōu)勢逐步凸顯。圖 8:

12、各類奢侈品牌2018業(yè)績表現(xiàn)層次不齊，市場領(lǐng)先者致勝有道20 働 9 <10% 10% 25%20171820% >25%奢侈品市場的增長引擎圖 9: 各大品牌對線上和社媒平臺加大投資規(guī)模，充分利用平臺 60% 70%201520182018圖 10: 各大品牌利用識別并鎖定目標(biāo)客戶，線上線下同時實(shí)現(xiàn)銷量提升40 %1008880756548 1040% 70%奢侈品市場的增長引擎未來展望未來，這些“增長引擎”也有可能失去動力，受一系列不確定因素影響，例如增長可能效應(yīng)”可能會在可控范圍內(nèi)逐步放緩，房價可能會逐漸趨于會有所減弱。，從而導(dǎo)致家庭的“正但無論如何，2019年對各大奢侈品牌

13、來說依然充滿希望。奢侈品行業(yè)仍將保持健康運(yùn)行，當(dāng)然， 增速繼續(xù)維持在20%難度較大，預(yù)計(jì)將會稍微放緩。2017和2018年那些強(qiáng)大的“正能量”將繼續(xù)引領(lǐng)奢侈品市場的發(fā)展：據(jù)，有可能進(jìn)一步下調(diào)進(jìn)口關(guān)稅，鼓勵國內(nèi)消費(fèi)并降低增值稅率；部門可能將進(jìn)一步加強(qiáng)對旅客和包裹的監(jiān)察，對專門從事海外帶貨轉(zhuǎn)內(nèi)消費(fèi)者的“代購大軍”，采取更為嚴(yán)格的審查機(jī)制；而各大奢侈品牌將繼續(xù)調(diào)整國內(nèi)外市場價差。的千禧一代失去對奢侈品的購買或消費(fèi)意愿。（UBS）近期的一項(xiàng)調(diào)查表明，71%的千禧一代表示對財(cái)務(wù)前景持樂觀態(tài)度，81%預(yù)計(jì)收入將有所上升。與此同時， 續(xù)發(fā)展壯大。中產(chǎn)階級將繼11奢侈品市場的增長引擎千禧一代失去對奢侈品的或購

14、買意愿。也許驅(qū)動奢侈品市場增長的引擎會一定變數(shù)，但目前看來，這四大引擎還未出現(xiàn)失速現(xiàn)象。12Shared Ambition, True Results公司是一家全球領(lǐng)先的管理咨詢公司，致力于為全球各地的商界提供咨詢建議。公司專注于為客戶提供戰(zhàn)略、運(yùn)營、組織、兼并收購以及等方面的咨詢服務(wù)。 我們每個客戶的自身問題度身定制切實(shí)可行的方案，并在合作過程中向客戶傳授相關(guān)技能以確保順利貫徹。公司成立于1973年，目前在全球36個設(shè)有57個辦事處。我們具備深厚 的專業(yè)知識，客戶亦來自各個行業(yè)和領(lǐng)域。公司客戶的業(yè)績超出市場平均水平四倍之多。是什么使我們在競爭激烈的咨詢行業(yè)中脫穎而出公司堅(jiān)信管理咨詢公司發(fā)揮的

15、作用不應(yīng)局限于提供建議方案的范疇。我們置身客戶立場思考問題，專注于建議方案的落地。我們基于執(zhí)行效果的收費(fèi)模式有助于確保客戶與 的利益捆綁， 通過與客戶通力合作，以發(fā)掘客戶的最大潛力。我們的戰(zhàn)略落地/ 管理®（Results Delivery®） 流程協(xié)助客戶發(fā)展自身的能力，而我們的“ ”（True North）價值觀指導(dǎo)我們始終致力于為我們的客戶、員工和 實(shí)現(xiàn)目標(biāo)。公司大中華區(qū)1993年，公司成為在成立辦事處的首家全球管理咨詢公司，目前擁有、上海和公司大中華區(qū)三個辦事處。公司在華的業(yè)務(wù)規(guī)模遍布40多個城市，涉及30多個行業(yè)。 咨詢團(tuán)隊(duì)已近兩百人，兼具豐富的國內(nèi)及國際工作經(jīng)驗(yàn)

16、。欲了解，請或在以下平臺關(guān)注我們:Whats Powerings Marketfor Luxury Goods?Sales are growing at a healthy 20% rate, but not all brands are celebrating.This report was authored by Bruno Lannes, a Bain & Company partner based in Shanghai and a member of the firms Retail and Consumer Products practices.Copyright 

17、9; 2019 Bain & Company, Inc.Whats Powerings Market for Luxury Goods?At a GlanceIt was the second year in a row of 20% growth for luxury goods.Brands benefited from repatriated purchases, a focus on millennials, increased digitalizationands expanding middle class.Although growth was robust overal

18、l, some companies outperformed with growth rates in excess of 25%, while others lagged with less than 10% growth. The winners strategies offer clearlessons for the future.s luxury goods market is humalong nicely, with a second straight year of 20% growth in2018 (see Figure 1). Think of it as a power

19、ful machine running on four engines operating in perfectalignment.More than 70% of millennials have a positive fina81% of them expect their income to increase.l outlook;Engine 1: Repatriationgovernments reduction in import duties and stricter controls over gray marketscombined with brands efforts to

20、 narrow the price gap with overseas marketshave led more Chi-consumers to make their luxury purchases, instead of traveling to previous bargainlocales such astheir luxury purchases, Seoul, Tokyo and cities in Europe.in 2018, up from 23% in 2015, and weconsumers27% ofipate that this shareconsumers ar

21、e buy-will increase to 50% by 2025 (see Figure 2). But this doesnt mean thating less abroad. Luxury spending by(see Figure 3).shoppers now represents 33% of the global market1Whats Powerings Market for Luxury Goods?Figure 1: The domestic luxury market posted 20% growth in 2018, driven by millennials

22、 and womenluxury market (RMB billions)CAGR CAGR CAGR (1116) (1617) (1718)200150117116114114113107100%50020111213141516Note: CAGRs are based on constant exchange ratesSources: Bain Luxury Goods Worldwide Market Study, 2018; Bain analysisFigure 2: The repatriation of spending will continue in the coye

23、arsChannel breakdown for ( billions)luxury goods spendingWhyof overseasshoppers are buying locally instead417685160100%Import duty reductions80Overseas purchases60Stricter control over gray markets40Mainlandpurchases20Price harmonization020112920152320182025EDomestic spending share (%)Sources: Bain

24、Luxury Goods Worldwide Market Study, 2018; Bain analysis2502720%20%Highlights After spectacular growth in 2017, momentum remained strong Millennials contributed almost all of the incremental growth ofs luxury market over the past year Category rebalng continued, with womens spending outpacing mensWh

25、ats Powerings Market for Luxury Goods?Figure 3:spending represented 33% of the global luxury market in 2018Global luxury market by consumer nationality ( billions)CAGR (0010)4%CAGR (1015)8%CAGR (1518)2%116167245260100% Rest of world 7% Other Asian 11%1%8019%31%33%33%19%2%60Japa10%40American 22%20Eur

26、opean 18%02000201020152018Note: Segments do not add up to 100% due to roundingSources: Bain Luxury Goods Worldwide Market Study, 2018; Bain analysisEngine 2: MillennialsConsumers aged 23 to 38 are willing to spend on luxury brands, and finally able to do so. Fully70% ofs millennials own their own ho

27、mestwice the rate of US millennials, according toHSBCs Beyond the Bricks study (see Figure 4). And they can get funding from their parents if they want to buy luxury goods. Moreover, these young consumers are well informed about luxury and eager to embrace innovative trends, such as the convergence

28、of high fashion and sportswear. Millennials are the big market for luxury sportswear products like Balenciagas Triple S sneaker, which was intro-duced in 2017 and maintained its popularity throughout 2018, and accessories cocreated by LouisVuitton and Supreme, a fashion brand with roots in skating.U

29、nlike older generations, millennials are moeavily influenced by what they consider to be coolthan by brand names or product pricing. They value newness more than discounts. They rely on socialmedia andly share their opinions online. Like their counterparts in all age groups, millennialwomen buy more

30、 luxury goods than men do. Cosmetics, a traditionally female category, grew by more than 25% in 2018, for example, while watches, a predominantly male category, grew by lessthan 10%.3Whats Powerings Market for Luxury Goods?Figure 4:millennials are finally able to spend on luxury brandsSource of fund

31、ing for luxury fashion purchasesMillennial homeownership percentage2% 3%70Brand sponsorshipOtherMexico46France41US3538%57%MalaysiaCanada3534Self fundsParents fundsUK31Australia28UAE26Average 38%Sources: Gold Standard Research Center and Tencent study (n=4,534 Bain analysismillennial consumers); Beyo

32、nd the Bricks, HSBC, February 2017; analyst reports;4Whats Powerings Market for Luxury Goods?Engine 3: DigitalizationThe third engine powering luxury sales, digitalization covers both e-commerce and con-sumer engagement through digital platforms. Theas been much progress in terms of engagingcustomer

33、s, but little progress on the e-commerce front (despite plenty of activity). Online luxurysales increased by 27% in 2018 to reach 10% of total luxury sales (see Figure 5), but this growth is still driven by cosmetics, while online penetration in other categories remains very low.Four types of online

34、 channels have been active in the domestic luxury market (see Figure 6). Brand- owned channels like Hwe refer to them as “”give companies ultimate control and the ability to charge full price. Cooperator channels like Tmall flagship stores and WeChat commerce give brands some control while allowing

35、them to benefit from the platforms steady flow of traffic. Aggregators such as JD.coms Toplife and Tmalls Luxury Pavilion enable brands to out- source the responsibility of building and operating high-traffic channels. Finally, luxury vertical sitessuch as Secoo and M make it possible to move goods

36、at a discount.In 2018, more brands looked for ways to expand their online presence through collaborations withleading e-commerce platforms, while others maintained a focus on their .Figure 5: Online luxury sales outgrew the overall market in 2018, but online penetration remains lowexcept in cosmetic

37、sluxury sales by channel (RMB billions)CAGR (1718)20020%170142150117113100Offline17%50Online02015616817918Online sales (%)Note: Online sales include official online channels only Source: Bain analysis51027%Whats Powerings Market for Luxury Goods?Figure 6: Four types of online channels were active in

38、 the domestic luxury marketBrand ownedCooperatorsAggregatorsLuxury verticalsPrice levelFull priceDiscounts on select items and brandsAll items generally discounted or sold at the overseas retail priceMore brand controlChannelsLess brand controlNumber of brandswithoutwithcosmeticsNotes: As of Februar

39、y 2019; analysis includes 76 luxury brands (20 cosmetics, 26 watches and jewelry, 30 lifestyle, shoes and handbags); only domestic online channels includedSources: Brand interviews; Bain analysisIt was also a year of heavy deal activity, including the following highlights:JD.com and L Cattertons $17

40、5 million investment in SecooRichemonts acquisition of Yoox Net-a-Porter (YNAP)YNAPs strategic partnership with AThe merger of JD.coms Toplife with FarfetchAs a result of this intense dealmaking, we see three types of ecosystems emerging: those centeredaround a and those built in collaboration with

41、either A or JD.com (see Figure 7).It is, after all, an omnichannel world. As each year passes, luxury brands learn more about how to in- tegrate online and offline sales, how to use digital engagement campaigns to get customers into their stores and how to improve the in-store experience. Winning br

42、ands are taking these omnichannellessons to heart. For instance, they are thoughtfully adjusting their physical footprint, with increasingemphasis on larger stores and like-for-like growth. The “Silk Mix” event by Hermès inwas agreat example of a true omnichannel initiative: an innovative combi

43、nation of a pop-up store with a6B 3250Tmall flagship 1634WeChat commerce 3048SomeTmall Pavilionpromotions/1120sales drivenJD Toplifeby platform1014Seasonal discounts/Net-a-Porter promotions2222Flash sales withheavy discountsFlash salesYooxwith heavy2323discountsSecooFarfetch50703131Overseas retailMp

44、rices with discounts/2747promotionsVIP.com2542 Sales of luxury products with large discounts on select series and items Built and operated by aggregators Brand input on inter- face design and product portfolio Strong brand control over the store and the aggregator traffic leveraged Built and operate

45、d by brandsWhats Powerings Market for Luxury Goods?Figure 7: Recent deals among online platforms have led to the emergence of three online ecosystems for luxury brandsBSource: Bain & Company7Whats Powerings Market for Luxury Goods?WeChat mini-program that increased traffic to the Hermès off

46、icial acof guests to the event.nd attracted thousandsEngine 4: A rapidly expanding middle classMiddle-class consumers will represent an estimated 65% of allhouseholds by 2027, accord-ing to research conducted by Bain & Company for the World Economic Forum. All signs point to acontinuing rise iage per-capita income amongs urban population. This expanding mid-dle class continues to produce first-time buyers of luxury goods.Why some luxury brands arent celebratingWhile luxury sales are robust, not every brand executive feels euphoric. As their in