水晶球軟件使用CrystalBall學(xué)習(xí)教案

1、會計(jì)學(xué)1水晶球軟件水晶球軟件(run jin)使用使用CrystalBall第一頁，共29頁。2第1頁/共30頁第二頁，共29頁。then ignore real-life complicationsFind a way to obtain an approximate solution to real-world problems3第2頁/共30頁第三頁，共29頁。4第3頁/共30頁第四頁，共29頁。5第4頁/共30頁第五頁，共29頁。6第5頁/共30頁第六頁，共29頁。7第6頁/共30頁第七頁，共29頁。8第7頁/共30頁第八頁，共29頁。9第8頁/共30頁第九頁，共29頁。worst c

2、asebest caseworst casebest caseworst casebest caseworst casebest case10第9頁/共30頁第十頁，共29頁。11第10頁/共30頁第十一頁，共29頁。12第11頁/共30頁第十二頁，共29頁。13第12頁/共30頁第十三頁，共29頁。14第13頁/共30頁第十四頁，共29頁。15第14頁/共30頁第十五頁，共29頁。16第15頁/共30頁第十六頁，共29頁。Click Define Assumption iconSelect distributionSpecify parameters17第16頁/共30頁第十七頁，共29頁。

3、1818第17頁/共30頁第十八頁，共29頁。19第18頁/共30頁第十九頁，共29頁。Define MenuRun MenuAnalyze MenuCrystal Ball Toolbar20第19頁/共30頁第二十頁，共29頁。21第20頁/共30頁第二十一頁，共29頁。The first step to using Crystal Ball is to determine which model inputs are uncertain. Which values are estimates? Which are averages? Once you have identified th

4、ese, you use your knowledge of the uncertainty around the input to create a probability distribution for that cell (what Crystal Ball calls an assumption). Crystal Ball lets you define these distributions using the Distribution Gallery22第21頁/共30頁第二十二頁，共29頁。23第22頁/共30頁第二十三頁，共29頁。The next step is to i

5、dentify a forecast. A forecast is a formula cell that you want to measure and analyze. In this model, you select the Net Profit (cell C23). 24第23頁/共30頁第二十四頁，共29頁。Number of simulation trials performedDisplay rangeCertainty (probability) that the forecast will reach $2,812,558Parts within the spec lim

6、its are shown in blue, parts outside spec limits are shown redNumber of data points displayed in the chartlCrystal Ball uses Monte Carlo simulation to randomly generate thousands of what-if scenarioslEach scenario is then captured and presented in a frequency chart (Forecast Chart)25第24頁/共30頁第二十五頁，共

7、29頁。Whats responsible for most of the variation in the forecast?The sensitivity chart shows the influence each assumption cell has on the forecast. 26第25頁/共30頁第二十六頁，共29頁。ReportsSelect a pre-defined report or create your own custom report. Reports now include new statistics and more control over data and charts. Extract DataYou can extract data from both forecasts and