影響稅收的幾個因素分析計量

1、金融計量學論文影響稅收的幾個因素分析班級：金融工程1003學號：0206100304姓名：李瑤成 績1數(shù)據(jù)選取20分2模型建立與數(shù)據(jù)分析40分3Eviews應用10分4結(jié)論陳述10分5整體行文20分6總 分摘要稅收是我國財政收入的根本因素，影響著我國的經(jīng)濟開展。本文通過查閱相關(guān)網(wǎng)站信息數(shù)據(jù)對影響我國稅收的因素進行論述。通過Eviews計量學軟件對國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值、財政支出、商品零售價格指數(shù)等稅收收入影響因素進行一定的證明與研究分析，得出相關(guān)結(jié)論，并對我國的稅收提一些建議。關(guān)鍵詞：稅收 Eviews 國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值A(chǔ)bstractThe tax is the basic factors of Chin

2、as fiscal revenue impact on Chinas economic development. This article discusses the factors affecting Chinas tax revenue by access to the relevant site information and data. Some formal research and analysis, the influencing factors of the the Eviews metrology software, the tax revenues of the gross

3、 domestic product (GDP), fiscal spending, the retail price index and draw relevant conclusions, and our tax some advice.Key words: tax Eviews GDP序言 稅收是國家為實現(xiàn)其職能，憑借政治權(quán)力，按照法律規(guī)定，通過稅收工具強制地、無償?shù)卣魇諈⑴c國民收入和社會產(chǎn)品的分配和再分配取得財政收入的一種形式。稅收主要用于國防和軍隊建設(shè)、國家公務員工資發(fā)放、道路交通和城市根底設(shè)施建設(shè)、科學研究、醫(yī)療衛(wèi)生防疫、文化教育、救災賑濟、環(huán)境保護等領(lǐng)域。而稅收一方面受經(jīng)濟開展的制

4、約，但同時又對經(jīng)濟宏觀開展起到重要作用。因此，我們需要對影響稅收的重要因素加以分析。變量的選取從整體來看，經(jīng)濟的增長是稅收增長的主要源泉。因此，選擇國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值作為解釋變量x1。稅收是財政收入的一個主體，社會經(jīng)濟的開展會對公共財產(chǎn)產(chǎn)生需求。那么財政支出可以代表，作為解釋變量x2。我國的稅制結(jié)構(gòu)以流轉(zhuǎn)稅為主，以現(xiàn)行價格計算的GDP等指標和經(jīng)營者的收入水平都與物價水平有關(guān)。所以選取商品零售指數(shù)作為物價水平的代表作為變量解釋x3。數(shù)據(jù)的選取以下是選取的樣本數(shù)據(jù)，單位均為億元年份國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值國家財政支出商品零售物價指數(shù)稅收收入1980 4545.624 1228.830 106.0000 571.70

5、001981 4891.561 1138.410 102.4000 629.89001982 5323.351 1229.980 101.9000 700.02001983 5962.652 1409.520 101.5000 775.59001984 7208.052 1701.020 102.8000 947.35001985 9016.037 2004.250 108.8000 2040.7901986 10275.18 2204.910 106.0000 2090.7301987 12058.62 2262.180 107.3000 2140.3601988 15042.82 2491

6、.210 118.5000 2390.4701989 16992.32 2823.780 117.8000 2727.4001990 18667.82 3083.590 102.1000 2821.8601991 21781.50 3386.620 102.9000 2990.1701992 26923.48 3742.200 105.4000 3296.9101993 35333.92 4642.300 113.2000 4255.3001994 48197.86 5792.620 121.7000 5126.8801995 60793.73 6823.720 114.8000 6038.0

7、401996 71176.59 7937.550 106.1000 6909.8201997 78973.03 9233.560 100.8000 8234.0401998 84402.28 10798.18 97.40000 9262.8001999 89677.05 13187.67 97.00000 10682.582000 99214.55 15886.50 98.50000 12581.512001 109655.2 18902.58 99.20000 15301.382002 120332.7 22053.15 98.70000 17636.452003 135822.8 2464

8、9.95 99.90590 20017.312004 159878.3 28486.89 102.8062 25718.002005 183867.9 33930.28 100.7774 30866.002006 210871.0 40422.73 101.0282 37636.00以上數(shù)據(jù)來源于?中國統(tǒng)計年鑒?及中宏數(shù)據(jù)庫試驗分析 1、設(shè)定的線性回歸模型為：Y=+ Dependent Variable: YMethod: Least SquaresDate: 06/02/12 Time: 23:51Sample: 1980 2006Included observations: 27Varia

9、bleCoefficientStd. Errort-StatisticProb. C-6357.3062589.143-2.4553710.0221X1-0.0111910.014037-0.7972610.4335X20.9670820.07682112.588750.0000X357.1184124.003452.3795920.0260R-squared0.994954 Mean dependent var8681.087Adjusted R-squared0.994296 S.D. dependent var9909.343S.E. of regression748.4057 Akai

10、ke info criterion16.20972Sum squared resid12882553 Schwarz criterion16.40170Log likelihood-214.8312 F-statistic1511.718Durbin-Watson stat0.691548 Prob(F-statistic)0.000000由上表可以得出回歸方程：Y=-6357.306-0.011191*x1+0.967082*x2+57.11841*x3 2589.143 0.014037 0.076821 24.00345T=-2.455371 -0.797261 12.58875 0.0

11、260 994954.02R 994295.02R f=1511.718 模型檢驗1、經(jīng)濟意義檢驗在假定其他變量不變的情況下，每當國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值增加一億時，稅收便減少0.011191%；每當國家財政支出增加一億時，稅收增加0.967082%；每當商品零售物價指數(shù)增加一億時，稅收增加57.11841%。其中我認為國民生產(chǎn)總值與物價零售指數(shù)有一定出入，下文會有所校正。2、統(tǒng)計檢驗擬合優(yōu)度由表中得出的兩個數(shù)據(jù)以下兩個，可知模型對樣本擬合的較好994954.02R 994295.02R T檢驗中三個解釋變量的t值分別是t0=-2.455371,t1=-0.797261,t2=12.58875,t3=2.

12、379592.在5%顯著性水平下自由度為n-k-1=27-3-1=23的t的臨界值t0.025(23)=2.069其中截距的t值小于臨界值說明截距與零沒有顯著性差異，三個偏斜率有一個沒有通過顯著性檢驗，t2與t3通過了顯著性檢驗3、多重共線性的檢驗YX1X2X3Y1.0000000.9797460.996789-0.383615X10.9797461.0000000.984833-0.407265X20.9967890.9848331.000000-0.416781X3-0.383615-0.407265-0.4167811.000000由上圖可知x1與x2之間的相關(guān)系數(shù)高達0.984833，

13、兩者高度正相關(guān)。將國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值x1對國家財政支出x2進行回歸分析Dependent Variable: X1Method: Least SquaresDate: 06/03/12 Time: 19:23Sample: 1980 2006Included observations: 27VariableCoefficientStd. Errort-StatisticProb. X25.3643510.18901328.380900.0000C7063.3492797.1842.5251640.0183R-squared0.969897 Mean dependent var60995.78Adju

14、sted R-squared0.968693 S.D. dependent var60277.90S.E. of regression10665.50 Akaike info criterion21.45860Sum squared resid2.84E+09 Schwarz criterion21.55459Log likelihood-287.6911 F-statistic805.4757Durbin-Watson stat0.144634 Prob(F-statistic)0.000000X1i=7063.349+5.3643512 969897.02R DW=0.144634 F=8

15、05.4757因此，x1與x2之間存在顯著地線性關(guān)系VIF=1/1-R2=33.2192810 因此該模型具有多重共線性多重共線性修正結(jié)果分析運用OLS方法逐一求y對各個結(jié)束變量的回歸Y與x1：y=-1143.176+0.161065x1 R2=0.959902VariableCoefficientStd. Errort-StatisticProb. C-1143.176559.4057-2.0435540.0517X10.1610650.00658424.463690.0000R-squared0.959902 Mean dependent var8681.087Adjusted R-squ

16、ared0.958298 S.D. dependent var9909.343S.E. of regression2023.592 Akaike info criterion18.13432Sum squared resid1.02E+08 Schwarz criterion18.23031Log likelihood-242.8134 F-statistic598.4724Durbin-Watson stat0.170737 Prob(F-statistic)0.000000Y與x2:y=-292.7317+0.892575x2 R2=0.993589Included observation

17、s: 27VariableCoefficientStd. Errort-StatisticProb. X20.8925750.01434062.244310.0000C-292.7317212.2144-1.3794150.1800R-squared0.993589 Mean dependent var8681.087Adjusted R-squared0.993332 S.D. dependent var9909.343S.E. of regression809.1614 Akaike info criterion16.30106Sum squared resid16368556 Schwa

18、rz criterion16.39705Log likelihood-218.0643 F-statistic3874.355Durbin-Watson stat0.501126 Prob(F-statistic)0.000000Y與x3:y=68011.85+-564.9916x3 R2=0.147161Dependent Variable: YMethod: Least SquaresDate: 06/03/12 Time: 19:51Sample: 1980 2006Included observations: 27VariableCoefficientStd. Errort-Stati

19、sticProb. C68011.8528622.302.3761840.0255X3-564.9916272.0256-2.0769790.0482R-squared0.147161 Mean dependent var8681.087Adjusted R-squared0.113047 S.D. dependent var9909.343S.E. of regression9332.439 Akaike info criterion21.19157Sum squared resid2.18E+09 Schwarz criterion21.28756Log likelihood-284.08

20、62 F-statistic4.313843Durbin-Watson stat0.179687 Prob(F-statistic)0.048232由上面的三個根本回歸方程可知，x2是最重要的解釋變量，所以選擇第二個根本回歸方程作為出事的回歸模型逐步回歸將其余變量逐一代入式y(tǒng)=-292.7317+0.892575x2得出如下幾個模型Y x2 x3: y=-6394.656+0.906950 x2+56.73074x3 R2=0.994815 994383.02R DW=0.652300 F=2302.212Dependent Variable: YMethod: Least SquaresDa

21、te: 06/03/12 Time: 20:11Sample: 1980 2006Included observations: 27VariableCoefficientStd. Errort-StatisticProb. C-6394.6562568.992-2.4891690.0201X20.9069500.01448062.636270.0000X356.7307423.815652.3820780.0255R-squared0.994815 Mean dependent var8681.087Adjusted R-squared0.994383 S.D. dependent var99

22、09.343S.E. of regression742.7027 Akaike info criterion16.16291Sum squared resid13238574 Schwarz criterion16.30689Log likelihood-215.1993 F-statistic2302.212Durbin-Watson stat0.652300 Prob(F-statistic)0.000000Y x1 x2 x3: Y=-6357.306-0.011191*x1+0.967082*x2+57.11841*x3 994954.02R 994295.02R DW=0.65230

23、0 F=1511.718 通過以上分析，得出x1稅收影響并不顯著，故將其剔除。在刪除X1后模型的統(tǒng)計檢驗有較大改善，經(jīng)過以上分析，Y對X2、X3的回歸模型較優(yōu)。最終回歸結(jié)果如下：y=-6394.656+0.906950 x2+56.73074x3 R2=0.994815 994383.02R DW=0.652300 F=2302.2124、異方差性y=-6394.656+0.906950 x2+56.73074x3 由G-Q檢驗，對樣本按x2由大到小排序，去除中間的4個樣本，剩余22個樣本，再分成兩個樣本容量為11的子樣本，對兩個子樣本分別用OLS法做回歸子樣本1：Dependent Vari

24、able: YMethod: Least SquaresDate: 06/03/12 Time: 20:58Sample: 1980 1990Included observations: 11VariableCoefficientStd. Errort-StatisticProb. C-20728.7112657.86-1.6376150.1401X20.9368950.03107530.149240.0000X3191.9785126.60511.5163570.1679R-squared0.991411 Mean dependent var17713.26Adjusted R-square

25、d0.989263 S.D. dependent var9994.315S.E. of regression1035.583 Akaike info criterion16.95032Sum squared resid8579459. Schwarz criterion17.05883Log likelihood-90.22675 F-statistic461.6999Durbin-Watson stat0.713244 Prob(F-statistic)0.000000Y=-20728.71+0.936895x2+191.9785x3R2=0. 0.991411 RSS1=8579459子樣

26、本2：Dependent Variable: YMethod: Least SquaresDate: 06/03/12 Time: 21:14Sample: 1996 2006Included observations: 11VariableCoefficientStd. Errort-StatisticProb. C-2531.9821207.246-2.0973210.0692X21.2134650.11085010.946950.0000X316.5979012.252481.3546570.2125R-squared0.960384 Mean dependent var1621.469

27、Adjusted R-squared0.950480 S.D. dependent var895.8196S.E. of regression199.3467 Akaike info criterion13.65497Sum squared resid317912.7 Schwarz criterion13.76349Log likelihood-72.10233 F-statistic96.97020Durbin-Watson stat1.934652 Prob(F-statistic)0.000002Y=-2531.982+1.213465x2+16.59790 x3R2=0.960384

28、 RSS2=317912.7計算F統(tǒng)計量：F=RSS1/(11-2-1) RSS2/(11-2-1)=26.9868在5%的顯著性水平下，自由度為8，8的f的分布臨界值為F0.0058,8=3.44，于是拒絕了同方差的假設(shè)，說明元模型存在異方差。異方差性修正結(jié)果分析采用加權(quán)最小二乘法進行估計：以1/|ei|為權(quán)重進行加權(quán)最小二乘法，那么有Dependent Variable: YMethod: Least SquaresDate: 06/03/12 Time: 21:37Sample(adjusted): 1996 2006Included observations: 11 after adjusting endpointsWeighting series: 1/ABS(E1)Variab