《管理學》英文原版講義全集StuRC8eCh課件(1)

1、PowerPoint Presentation by Charlie CookCopyright 2005 Prentice Hall, Inc. All rights reserved.L E A R N I N G O U T L I N E Follow this Learning Outline as you read and study this chapter.The Decision-Making ProcessDefine decision and decision-making process.Describe the eight steps in the decision-

2、making process.Explain the challenges managers face in identifying problems.Discuss why decision criteria are important in the decision-making process.Describe how managers develop, analyze, and select alternatives.Explain what happens during implementation and evaluation.2Copyright 2005 Prentice Ha

3、ll, Inc. All rights reserved. *L E A R N I N G O U T L I N E (contd) Follow this Learning Outline as you read and study this chapter.The Managers as Decision MakerExplain why decision making is synonymous with managing.Discuss the assumptions of rational decision making.Describe the concepts of boun

4、ded rationality, satisficing, and escalation of commitment.Explain what intuition is and how it affects decision making.Contrast programmed and nonprogrammed decisions.Define the three forms of programmed decision making.Contrast the three decision-making conditions.3Copyright 2005 Prentice Hall, In

5、c. All rights reserved. *L E A R N I N G O U T L I N E (contd) Follow this Learning Outline as you read and study this chapter.The Managers as Decision Maker (contd)Explain maximax, maximin, and minimax decision choice approaches.Describe the four decision making styles.Discuss the twelve decision-m

6、aking biases managers may exhibit.Describe how manager can deal with the negative effects of decision errors and biases.Explain the managerial decision-making model.Decision Making for Todays WorldDescribe todays decision-making environment.4Copyright 2005 Prentice Hall, Inc. All rights reserved. *L

7、 E A R N I N G O U T L I N E (contd) Follow this Learning Outline as you read and study this chapter.Decision Making for Todays World (contd)Explain how managers can make effective decisions in todays world.List six characteristics of an effective decision-making process.Tell what a highly reliable

8、organization is.Describe the five habits of highly reliable organizations.5Copyright 2005 Prentice Hall, Inc. All rights reserved. *L E A R N I N G O U T L I N E (contd) Follow this Learning Outline as you read and study this chapter.What Is An Organization?Describe the characteristics of an organiz

9、ation.Explain how the concept of an organization is changing.Why Study Management?Explain the universality of management concept.Discuss why an understanding of management is important even if you dont plan to be a manager.Describe the rewards and challenges of being a manager.6Copyright 2005 Prenti

10、ce Hall, Inc. All rights reserved. *Decision MakingDecisionMaking a choice from two or more alternatives.The Decision-Making ProcessIdentifying a problem and decision criteria and allocating weights to the criteria.Developing, analyzing, and selecting an alternative that can resolve the problem.Impl

11、ementing the selected alternative.Evaluating the decisions effectiveness.7Copyright 2005 Prentice Hall, Inc. All rights reserved. *Step 1: Identifying the ProblemProblemA discrepancy between an existing and desired state of affairs.Characteristics of ProblemsA problem becomes a problem when a manage

12、r becomes aware of it.There is pressure to solve the problem.The manager must have the authority, information, or resources needed to solve the problem.8Copyright 2005 Prentice Hall, Inc. All rights reserved. *Step 2: Identifying Decision CriteriaDecision criteria are factors that are important (rel

13、evant) to resolving the problem.Costs that will be incurred (investments required)Risks likely to be encountered (chance of failure)Outcomes that are desired (growth of the firm)Step 3: Allocating Weights to the CriteriaDecision criteria are not of equal importance:Assigning a weight to each item pl

14、aces the items in the correct priority order of their importance in the decision making process.9Copyright 2005 Prentice Hall, Inc. All rights reserved. *Step 4: Developing AlternativesIdentifying viable alternativesAlternatives are listed (without evaluation) that can resolve the problem.Step 5: An

15、alyzing AlternativesAppraising each alternatives strengths and weaknessesAn alternatives appraisal is based on its ability to resolve the issues identified in steps 2 and 3.10Copyright 2005 Prentice Hall, Inc. All rights reserved. *Step 6: Selecting an AlternativeChoosing the best alternativeThe alt

16、ernative with the highest total weight is chosen.Step 7: Implementing the DecisionPutting the chosen alternative into action.Conveying the decision to and gaining commitment from those who will carry out the decision.11Copyright 2005 Prentice Hall, Inc. All rights reserved. *Step 8: Evaluating the D

17、ecisions EffectivenessThe soundness of the decision is judged by its outcomes.How effectively was the problem resolved by outcomes resulting from the chosen alternatives?If the problem was not resolved, what went wrong?12Copyright 2005 Prentice Hall, Inc. All rights reserved. *Making DecisionsRation

18、alityManagers make consistent, value-maximizing choices with specified constraints.Assumptions are that decision makers:Are perfectly rational, fully objective, and logical.Have carefully defined the problem and identified all viable alternatives.Have a clear and specific goalWill select the alterna

19、tive that maximizes outcomes in the organizations interests rather than in their personal interests.13Copyright 2005 Prentice Hall, Inc. All rights reserved. *Making Decisions (contd)Bounded RationalityManagers make decisions rationally, but are limited (bounded) by their ability to process informat

20、ion.Assumptions are that decision makers:Will not seek out or have knowledge of all alternativesWill satisficechoose the first alternative encountered that satisfactorily solves the problemrather than maximize the outcome of their decision by considering all alternatives and choosing the best.14Copy

21、right 2005 Prentice Hall, Inc. All rights reserved. *Influences on Decision MakingEscalation of CommitmentIncreasing or continuing a commitment to previous decision despite mounting evidence that the decision may have been wrong.The Role of IntuitionIntuitive decision makingMaking decisions on the b

22、asis of experience, feelings, and accumulated judgment.15Copyright 2005 Prentice Hall, Inc. All rights reserved. *Problems and DecisionsStructured ProblemsInvolve goals that clear,Are familiar (have occurred before),Are easily and completely definedinformation about the problem is available and comp

23、lete,Programmed DecisionA repetitive decision that can be handled by a routine approach.16Copyright 2005 Prentice Hall, Inc. All rights reserved. *Types of Programmed DecisionsA PolicyA general guideline for making a decision about a structured problem.A ProcedureA series of interrelated steps that

24、a manager can use to respond (applying a policy) to a structured problem.A RuleAn explicit statement that limits what a manager or employee can or cannot do in carrying out the steps involved in a procedure.17Copyright 2005 Prentice Hall, Inc. All rights reserved. *Policy, Procedure, and Rule Exampl

25、ePolicyAccept all customer-returned merchandise.ProcedureFollow all steps for completing merchandise return documentation.RulesManagers must approve all refunds over $50.00.No credit purchases are refunded for cash.18Copyright 2005 Prentice Hall, Inc. All rights reserved. *Problems and Decisions (co

26、ntd)Unstructured ProblemsProblems that are new or unusual and for which information is ambiguous or incomplete.Problems that will require custom-made solutions.Nonprogrammed DecisionsDecisions that are unique and nonrecurring.Decisions that generate unique responses.19Copyright 2005 Prentice Hall, I

27、nc. All rights reserved. *Decision-Making ConditionsCertaintyA ideal situation in which a manager can make an accurate decision because the outcome of every alternative choice is known.RiskA situation in which the manager is able to estimate the likelihood (probability) of outcomes that result from

28、the choice of particular alternatives.20Copyright 2005 Prentice Hall, Inc. All rights reserved. *Decision-Making ConditionsUncertaintyLimited or information prevents estimation of outcome probabilities for alternatives associated with the problem and may force managers to rely on intuition, hunches,

29、 and “gut feelings”.Maximax: the optimistic managers choice to maximize the maximum payoffMaximin: the pessimistic managers choice to maximize the minimum payoffMinimax: the managers choice to minimize his maximum regret.21Copyright 2005 Prentice Hall, Inc. All rights reserved. *Decision-Making Styl

30、esDimensions of Decision-Making StylesWays of thinkingRational, orderly, and consistentIntuitive, creative, and uniqueTolerance for ambiguityLow tolerance: require consistency and orderHigh tolerance: multiple thoughts simultaneously22Copyright 2005 Prentice Hall, Inc. All rights reserved. *Decision

31、-Making Styles (contd)Types of Decision MakersDirectiveUse minimal information and consider few alternatives.AnalyticMake careful decisions in unique situations.ConceptualMaintain a broad outlook and consider many alternatives in making long-term decisions.BehavioralAvoid conflict by working well wi

32、th others and being receptive to suggestions.23Copyright 2005 Prentice Hall, Inc. All rights reserved. *Decision-Making Biases and ErrorsHeuristicsUsing “rules of thumb” to simplify decision making.Overconfidence BiasHolding unrealistically positive views of ones self and ones performance.Immediate

33、Gratification BiasChoosing alternatives that offer immediate rewards and that to avoid immediate costs.24Copyright 2005 Prentice Hall, Inc. All rights reserved. *Decision-Making Biases and Errors (contd)Anchoring EffectFixating on initial information and ignoring subsequent information.Selective Per

34、ceptionSelecting organizing and interpreting events based on the decision makers biased perceptions.Confirmation BiasSeeking out information that reaffirms past choices and discounting contradictory information.25Copyright 2005 Prentice Hall, Inc. All rights reserved. *Decision-Making Biases and Err

35、ors (contd)Framing BiasSelecting and highlighting certain aspects of a situation while ignoring other aspects.Availability BiasLosing decision-making objectivity by focusing on the most recent events.Representation BiasDrawing analogies and seeing identical situations when none exist.Randomness Bias

36、Creating unfounded meaning out of random events.26Copyright 2005 Prentice Hall, Inc. All rights reserved. *Decision-Making Biases and Errors (contd)Sunk Costs ErrorsForgetting that current actions cannot influence past events and relate only to future consequences.Self-Serving BiasTaking quick credit for succe