EVA景氣向上POE進(jìn)口替代可期

1、 CIPA 2021 6 227CIPA CNCIC Consulting120%POE20%POP CNCIC Consulting CNCIC Consulting CNCIC ConsultingJ 22 2018 & POE CO f6% 2%36% i%21%26%+, : 9+, CNCIC Consu inx, 9%( fb23: 20l8#%POPOd)&4% 4%1%38%8.211.518.025.413016523030015%17%19%20%0.470.470.470.4790%90%90%90% 2020E2021E2022E2023E20.521825.328.1

2、 5.76.26.T7.24.04.44.85.38.211518.025.41.71.T1.81.8POE&D, .0V 40.146.656.567.716.0%21.4%19.8%b26: #POEL#25,00020,00015,00010,0005,000020170811201711232018-03-062018-06-132018-09-192018-12-292019-04-1232.9119.624.424.132019-OF-222019-10-31202002130.480.070.270.272020052220200828202012090.940.500.570.

3、571.251.570.590.592021032230,00025,00020,00015,00010,0005,000068.6299.916.312.72017-08-112017-11-2335.238.97.86.32018-03-062018-06-1326.412.57.66.12018-09-192018-12-292019-04-128.15.40.70.62019-07-222019-10-31202002-136.85.60.70.62020052220200828202012095.64.00.70.520210322 EVAEVAVA 2EVAEVAEVA2021 2

4、022160-170GW220-240GWEVA14/252021/22EVA50/72EVA 1EVA2021-22EVA2022EVA15EVA1,000/1.13PLAEVA-202513/PLAPLA 20211316.6812.5EVA2021/2235/26x2022EVA20.638202230 x15.5 P/E band003022.SZ10 x20 x30 x40 xCNY504045354030353025252020151510105500P/B bandCNY003022.SZ2x3.5x5x6.5x2020-122021-012021-032021-042021-0

5、62020-122021-012021-032021-042021-06 P/E band600028.SH3x7x12x15xCNY1099887766554433221100P/B bandCNY600028.SH0.6x0.8x1x1.2x2010-012012-112015-092018-082021-062010-012012-112015-092018-082021-06 財(cái)報(bào)貨交易貨收盤價(jià) 市值市盈率市凈率凈資產(chǎn)收益率 EV/EBITDA 股息率（ ）股票代碼 公司名稱幣幣06-25 （百萬（ ）美元） 2020A 2021E 2020A 2021E 2020A 2021E 20

6、20A 2021E 2020A 2021E國際超大公司XOM.US?？松梨?EXXON MOBIL)USDUSD64.66273,741246.717.21.71.7-11.39.46.77.75.45.4RDSA.LN荷蘭皇家殼牌USDGBp1494.40159,913N.M.9.71.01.0-9.310.13.74.53.33.3BP/.LN碧辟公司USDGBp325.5091,578N.M.9.81.21.2-13.711.9N.M.4.74.64.6CVX.US雪佛龍(CHEVRON)USDUSD107.30207,385N.M.18.71.61.5-9.08.19.27.15.0

7、4.9平均值183,154246.713.91.41.3-10.89.98.86.04.64.6中值183,649246.713.51.41.4-10.39.88.05.94.84.8國際大公司ENI.IM埃尼集團(tuán)EUREUR10.5645,433N.M.14.81.01.0-11.27.15.83.93.46.7COP.US康菲石油(CONOCOPHILLIPS)USDUSD61.3182,733N.M.17.11.91.80.112.811.15.92.82.8OXY.US西 方 石 油 (OCCIDENTALUSDUSD32.9130,719N.M.N.M.3.62.6-91.7-3.9

8、N.M.6.90.10.2REP.SM雷普索爾股份公司EUREUR11.0620,162N.M.9.80.90.8-10.48.2N.M.5.05.35.4MRO.US馬拉松石油(MARATHON OIL)USDUSD14.0711,089N.M.19.31.01.0-11.64.96.05.21.11.0HES.US赫斯公司(HESS)USDUSD89.3227,548N.M.53.94.94.3-6.411.1N.M.11.41.11.1平均值36,281N.M.23.02.21.9-21.96.78.36.42.32.9中值29,134N.M.17.11.51.4-10.87.67.25

9、.52.02.0新興市場公司ONGC.IN 印度石油天然氣有限公司INRINR120.9020,4959.4(a)6.6(a)0.7(a)0.6(a)7.6(a)10.0(a)5.2(a)4.1(a)3.0(a)5.3(a)PTT.TBPTT 公共有限公司THBTHB39.7535,69915.811.31.21.27.910.38.96.12.54.3GAZP.RM 俄羅斯天然氣工業(yè)公司RUBRUB277.6091,0069.44.20.40.34.88.65.64.34.510.8ROSN.RM 俄羅斯石油公司RUBRUB563.4082,68612.16.01.11.09.716.78.

10、04.82.57.2LKOH.RM 盧克石油公司RUBRUB6800.0065,24420.38.21.01.05.014.15.34.13.88.9NVTK.RM 諾瓦泰克公司RUBRUB1546.0065,00428.413.92.82.59.918.819.112.42.33.4PETR4.BZ 巴西石油公司BRLBRL29.1077,3246.76.81.20.920.816.84.73.82.73.400883.HK 中國海洋石油*CNYHKD9.2052,90513.97.80.80.75.69.84.83.75.26.500386.HK 中國石油化工股份*CNYHKD4.1378,97112.76.30.60.64.59.14.