海洋工程環(huán)境作業(yè)1

《海洋工程環(huán)境學(xué)》作業(yè)1班級:學(xué)號:姓名:計(jì)算條件給定有義波波高統(tǒng)計(jì)計(jì)值如下下表所示示：有義波高下限00.511.522.533.544.55上限0.490.991.491.992.492.993.493.994.494.995.49數(shù)量17653090184912978365853172204352Totall100099平平均周期期.計(jì)算要求根據(jù)所給有有義波高高統(tǒng)計(jì)值值和平均均周期，用用三參數(shù)數(shù)Weiibulll函函數(shù)預(yù)報(bào)報(bào)此海域域短期海海況有義義波高的的長期分分布規(guī)律律，并計(jì)計(jì)算百年年一遇的的最大波波。最后后作業(yè)應(yīng)應(yīng)包含三三部分::(1)計(jì)計(jì)算原理理說明;;(2)計(jì)計(jì)算程序序說明;;(3)計(jì)計(jì)算結(jié)果果:繪制線性化化Weiibulll函函數(shù)及其其離散值值圖線..繪制曲線,,其中中為最小小閾限高高度試算算值,為擬合合誤差的的均方根根平均值值(標(biāo)準(zhǔn)準(zhǔn)差)..給出最佳擬擬合結(jié)果果:和和擬合((標(biāo)準(zhǔn)差差).一、計(jì)算原原理海上定點(diǎn)波波浪觀測測短期子子樣的統(tǒng)統(tǒng)計(jì)特征征，有義義波高的的長期累累計(jì)子樣樣為大量觀測分分析表明明，子樣樣代表的的隨機(jī)過過程仍然然是一個(gè)個(gè)平穩(wěn)的的隨機(jī)過過程，可可以尋求求適當(dāng)?shù)牡母怕拭苊芏群瘮?shù)數(shù)來擬合合觀測結(jié)結(jié)果。為三參數(shù)的的Weiibulll函函數(shù)。其其中H0為最小小閾限水水平，HHC為尺尺度因子子，為形形狀因子子對Weiibulll累累計(jì)概率率函數(shù)線線性化，移項(xiàng)，取對數(shù)數(shù)：移動(dòng)負(fù)號，再取對對數(shù)：做變量置換換：則有：?為截距BB和斜斜率的直直線方程程給定子樣：：考慮到直線線方程只只能解兩兩個(gè)未知知數(shù)，對對第三個(gè)個(gè)未知數(shù)數(shù)必須假假定。通通常，取取H0=0((第一次次近似))。用作圖法得得到另外外兩個(gè)參參數(shù)：和則則：同時(shí)，可以以得到本本次近似似計(jì)算的的擬合誤誤差平方方和：迭代計(jì)算：：在一系系列HH0的假定定下，重重復(fù)上述述計(jì)算，得得到相應(yīng)應(yīng)的擬合合誤差平平方和集集(子樣)由此得到其其最小值值和對應(yīng)應(yīng)的H0，再重復(fù)復(fù)一次計(jì)計(jì)算，最后，得到到關(guān)于三三參數(shù)的的最優(yōu)解解：二、計(jì)算程程序本次計(jì)算使使用了eexceel的強(qiáng)強(qiáng)大的計(jì)計(jì)算功能能，并運(yùn)運(yùn)用了其其自帶的的畫圖工工具。三、計(jì)算結(jié)結(jié)果Hmax數(shù)量p(Hs))P(Hs))-ln((1-PP(Hss))X=lg((Hs--H0))Y=lg((-lnn(1--P(HHs))))Y=kX++b誤差平方0.4917650.176630.176630.19440-0.30098-0.71122-0.711950.000010.9930900.308870.48550.66336-0.00044-0.17781-0.233920.003371.4918490.184470.669971.107780.173320.044450.040010.000001.9912970.129960.799931.605590.298890.205570.237770.001102.498360.083350.882282.144400.396620.331120.390080.003352.995850.058840.941132.834460.475570.452250.515580.004403.493170.031170.972293.609920.542280.557740.621140.004413.992200.02220.994495.279950.601100.722260.712290.000014.49430.004430.999927.131190.652220.853320.793350.003364.9950.000050.999978.112270.698810.909920.865560.001195.4920.000020.999999.210030.739960.964430.930080.00111總量100099Ho=0k=1.557277b=-0..23223誤差平方和和0.02332Hmax數(shù)量p(Hs))P(Hs))-ln((1-PP(Hss))X=lg((Hs--H0))Y=lg((-lnn(1--P(HHs))))Y=kX++b誤差平方0.4917650.176630.176630.19440-0.35565-0.71122-0.733240.000040.9930900.308870.48550.66336-0.02269-0.17781-0.233250.003301.4918490.184470.669971.107780.158840.044450.048850.000001.9912970.129960.799931.605590.287780.205570.244480.001152.498360.083350.882282.144400.387740.331120.395580.004422.995850.058840.941132.834460.468830.452250.518860.004443.493170.031170.972293.609920.536660.557740.622200.004423.992200.02220.994495.279950.595550.722260.711140.000014.49430.004430.999927.131190.647740.853320.790010.004404.9950.000050.999978.112270.693370.909920.860040.002245.4920.000020.999999.210030.735560.964430.923390.00116總量100099Ho=0..05k=1.551666b=-0..19117誤差平方和和0.02557Hmax數(shù)量p(Hs))P(Hs))-ln((1-PP(Hss))X=lg((Hs--H0))Y=lg((-lnn(1--P(HHs))))Y=kX++b誤差平方0.4917650.176630.176630.19440-0.40089-0.71122-0.744660.001120.9930900.308870.48550.66336-0.05506-0.17781-0.222430.002211.4918490.184470.669971.107780.143300.044450.058800.000021.9912970.129960.799931.605590.276650.205570.252250.002222.498360.083350.882282.144400.378840.331120.401110.004492.995850.058840.941132.834460.460090.452250.521140.004473.493170.031170.972293.609920.530020.557740.622240.004423.992200.02220.994495.279950.589990.722260.709950.000024.49430.004430.999927.131190.642250.853320.786610.004454.9950.000050.999978.112270.689930.909920.854440.003305.4920.000020.999999.210030.731160.964430.916600.00223總量100099Ho=0..1k=1.445788b=-0..15005誤差平方和和0.02996Hmax數(shù)量p(Hs))P(Hs))-ln((1-PP(Hss))X=lg((Hs--H0))Y=lg((-lnn(1--P(HHs))))Y=kX++b誤差平方0.4917650.176630.176630.19440-0.46685-0.71122-0.766250.002250.9930900.308870.48550.66336-0.07757-0.17781-0.211420.001131.4918490.184470.669971.107780.127710.044450.068890.000061.9912970.129960.799931.605590.264480.205570.261120.003312.498360.083350.882282.144400.369920.331120.406690.005572.995850.058840.941132.834460.453330.452250.524430.005523.493170.031170.972293.609920.523370.557740.622260.004423.992200.02220.994495.279950.584430.722260.707720.000024.49430.004430.999927.131190.637750.853320.781140.005524.9950.000050.999978.112270.684480.909920.847750.003385.4920.000020.999999.210030.727750.964430.907710.00333總量100099Ho=0..15k=1.339599b=-0..10885誤差平方和和0.03551Hmax數(shù)量p(Hs))P(Hs))-ln((1-PP(Hss))X=lg((Hs--H0))Y=lg((-lnn(1--P(HHs))))Y=kX++b誤差平方0.4917650.176630.176630.19440-0.53376-0.71122-0.788010.004460.9930900.308870.48550.66336-0.10024-0.17781-0.200140.000051.4918490.184470.669971.107780.110060.044450.081180.001141.9912970.129960.799931.605590.252290.205570.270090.004432.498360.083350.882282.144400.359980.331120.413320.006672.995850.058840.941132.834460.445560.452250.527720.005563.493170.031170.972293.609920.517720.557740.622240.004423.992200.02220.994495.279950.578860.722260.704410.000034.49430.004430.999927.131190.632250.853320.775570.006604.9950.000050.999978.112270.680030.909920.839930.004495.4920.000020.999999.210030.723350.964430.896670.00446總量100099Ho=0..20k=1.332977b=-0..06553誤差平方和和0.04331Hmax數(shù)量p(Hs))P(Hs))-ln((1-PP(Hss))X=lg((Hs--H0))Y=lg((-lnn(1--P(HHs))))Y=kX++b誤差平方0.4917650.176630.176630.19440-0.61198-0.71122-0.800000.007770.9930900.308870.48550.66336-0.13308-0.17781-0.188490.000001.4918490.184470.669971.107780.093340.044450.097710.002281.9912970.129960.799931.605590.240050.205570.282220.005582.498360.083350.882282.144400.350020.33