ChMonetaryandFiscalPolicyinaClosedEconomy經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)英文復(fù)旦周翼實用

會計學(xué)1ChMonetaryandFiscalPolicyinaClosedEconomy經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)英文復(fù)旦周翼實用25.2BringingtogethertherealandfinancialsectorsHavingseenequilibriuminthegoodsandmoneymarketsseparately,itisnowtimetoexplorethelinksbetweenthemandtolookatsimultaneousequilibriuminboth.第1頁/共23頁25.3ConsumptionrevisitedIncomeisakeydeterminantofconsumptionbutotherfactorsshifttheconsumptionfunctionhouseholdwealthavailabilityofcreditcostofcreditThesecreatealinkbetweenthefinancialandrealsectorsbecauseinterestratescanbeseentoinfluenceconsumption.第2頁/共23頁25.4ThepermanentincomehypothesisAmoderntheoryofconsumptiondevelopedbyMiltonFriedmanarguesthatpeopleliketosmoothplannedconsumptionevenifincomefluctuatesConsumptiondependsuponpermanentnottransitoryincome.第3頁/共23頁25.5Savingsoccurduringmiddleageanddissavinginyouthandoldage.Thelife-cyclehypothesisAtheoryofconsumptiondevelopedbyAndoandModigliani.Age0Income,consumptionDeathIndividualstrytosmooththeirconsumption,basedonexpectedlifetimeincome.PermanentincomeThuswealthandinterestratesmayinfluenceconsumption.Incomevariesoveranindividual'slifetime.Actualincome第4頁/共23頁25.6RicardianequivalenceIndividualswillreacttoashocksuchasataxchangeindifferentways,dependingonwhetherchangesareseentobetemporaryorpermanent.Ifthegovernmentcuttaxestoday,butindividualsrealisethiswillhavetobebalancedbyhighertaxesinthefuture,thenpresentconsumptionmaynotadjust.第5頁/共23頁25.7InvestmentdemandInvestmentspendingincludes:fixedcapitalTransportequipmentMachinery&otherequipmentDwellingsOtherbuildingsIntangiblesworkingcapitalstocks(inventories)workinprogressandisundertakenbyprivateandpublicsectors第6頁/共23頁25.8AnalysisoffixedinvestmentintheUKbytypeofasset1965-1998Source:EconomicTrendsAnnualSupplement,MonthlyDigestofStatistics第7頁/共23頁25.9ThedemandforfixedinvestmentInvestmententailspresentsacrificeforfuturegainsfirmsincurcostsintheshortrunbutreapgainsinthelongrunExpectedreturnsmustoutweightheopportunitycostifaprojectistobeundertakensoatrelativelyhighinterestrates,lessinvestmentprojectsareviable.第8頁/共23頁25.10Theinvestmentdemandschedule…showshowmuchinvestmentfirmswishtoundertakeateachinterestrate.InvestmentdemandInterestrateIIAtrelativelyhighinterestrates,lessinvestmentprojectsareviable.Atr0,I0projectsareviable.r0I0butiftheinterestraterisestor1,desiredinvestmentfallstoI1.r1I1第9頁/共23頁25.11InterestratesandaggregatedemandThepositionoftheADscheduleisnowseentodependuponinterestratesthroughtheeffectsonconsumptioninvestment第10頁/共23頁25.12Monetarypolicy

whenaggregatedemanddependsupontheinterestrateIncomeAggregatedemand45olineAD0Y0CC0SupposetheeconomystartswithconsumptionatCC0,investmentatI0andequilibriumatY0.I0AfallininterestratesshiftstheconsumptionfunctiontoCC1,andleadstohigherinvestmentatI1.CC1I1AggregatedemandrisestoAD1,andthenewequilibriumisatY1.AD1Y1第11頁/共23頁25.13FiscalpolicyandcrowdingoutIncomeAggregatedemand45olineAD0Y0SupposeanincreaseingovernmentspendingshiftstheADcurvetoAD1.AD1Initially,equilibriummovestoY1.Y1Buthigherincomeraisesmoneydemand,sointerestratesriseandconsumptionandinvestmentfall,shiftingADbacktoAD2andequilibriumincometoY2.AD2Y2第12頁/共23頁25.14GoodsmarketequilibriumThegoodsmarketisinequilibriumwhentheaggregatedemandandactualincomeareequalTheISscheduleshowsthedifferentcombinationsofincomeandinterestratesatwhichthegoodsmarketisinequilibrium.第13頁/共23頁25.15TheISscheduleIncomeAD45olineIncomerAD0r0Atarelativelyhighinterestrater0,consumptionandinvestmentarerelativelylow–soADisalsolow.Y0Y0EquilibriumisatY0.Y1Y1EquilibriumisatY1.ISTheISscheduleshowsallthecombinationsofrealincomeandinterestrateatwhichthegoodsmarketisinequilibrium.AD1Atalowerinterestrater1Consumption,investmentandADarehigher.r1第14頁/共23頁25.16MoneymarketequilibriumThemoneymarketisinequilibriumwhenthedemandforrealmoneybalancesisequaltothesupply.TheLMscheduleshowsthedifferentcombinationsofincomeandinterestratesatwhichthemoneymarketisinequilibrium.第15頁/共23頁25.17TheLMschedulerrIncomeRealmoneybalancesL0LL0r0r0Y0AtincomeY0,moneydemandisatLL0andequilibriuminthemoneymarketrequiresaninterestrateofr0.r1Y1r1LL1AtY1,moneydemandisatLL1,andequilibriumisatr1.LMTheLMscheduletracesoutthecombinationsofrealincomeandinterestrateinwhichthemoneymarketisinequilibrium.第16頁/共23頁25.18ShiftingISandLMschedulesThepositionoftheISscheduledependsupon:anything(otherthaninterestrates)thatshiftsaggregatedemand:e.g.autonomousinvestmentautonomousconsumptiongovernmentspendingThepositionoftheLMscheduledependsuponmoneysupply(thepricelevel)第17頁/共23頁25.19EquilibriumingoodsandmoneymarketsIncomerISBringingtogethertheISschedule(showinggoodsmarketequilibrium)LMandtheLMschedule(showingmoneymarketequilibrium).Y*r*Wecanidentifytheuniquecombinationofrealincomeandinterestrate(r*,Y*)whichensuresoverallequilibrium.第18頁/共23頁25.20FiscalpolicyintheIS-LMmodelIncomerIS0LMY0r0Y0,r0representstheinitialequilibrium.IS1Abond-financedincreaseingovernmentspendingshiftstheISscheduletoIS1.r1Y1Equilibriumisnowatr1,

Y1.Someprivatespendinghasbeencrowdedoutbytheincreaseintherateofinterest.第19頁/共23頁25.21MonetarypolicyintheIS-LMmodelIncomerIS0LM0Y0r0Y0,r0representstheinitialequilibrium.LM1AnincreaseinmoneysupplyshiftstheLMscheduletotheright.Y1r1Equilibriumisnowatr1,Y1.第20頁/共23頁25.22Th