全球天然氣展望2022-分析和預(yù)測至2025

GasMarket

Report,Q3-2022

includingGas2022medium-termforecastto2025

INTERNATIONALENERGYAGENCY

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GasMarketReport,Q3-2022

Tableofcontents

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PAGE|3

reserved.

Tableofcontents

Gas2022 6

Executivesummary 7

Mainassumptionsbehindtheforecast 9

Economicactivityandenergypriceassumptions 10

PhasingoutRussiangas:Anacceleratedcase 11

RussiangasintheEuropeanUnion:Astateofinterdependency 12

TheEuropeanUnion’srelianceonRussiangasincreasedsteadilyover

thelastdecade 13

Phase-outcommitmentsarebuildingupacrosstheEuropeanUnion.14

SeveralEUmembercountriesareaimingtoacceleratethephase-out

ofRussiangas 15

Measurestoimplementanacceleratedandorderlyphase-outof

Russiangas 16

Acombinationofsupply-anddemand-sidemeasureswillbenecessary

tophaseoutRussiangasinanorderlymanner 18

Demand 19

Globalgasdemandgrowthdipsin2022afterastrong2021,witha

modestincreaseexpectedinthefollowingyears 20

Short-termgasdemandgrowthcomestoahalt,whilelonger-term

uncertaintylimitsgrowthpotentialinthefollowingyears 21

Currentmarkettensionsandmedium-termuncertaintyresultina60%

cutinourforecastofaveragegrowthingasdemandto2024,compared

toourpreviousoutlook 22

Lowerglobalgasgrowthpotentialfurtherhighlightstheoutsizerole

playedbyAsiaandtheindustrialsectorinthemedium-term

consumptionincrease 23

Naturalgasgrowthisslowerthanpreviouslyexpected,butthisdoes

notguaranteeanaccelerationincleanenergytransitions 24

Gasdemandgrowthto2024shrinksby60%comparedtotheprevious

forecast 25

Theindustrialsectorplaystheleadroleinmedium-termgrowth 26

Theindustrialsectoraccountsforoverhalfofglobalgasconsumption

growthover2022-2025 27

Gasdemandfornon-energyuses–tensioninglobalfertiliser

markets 28

TheureapricehasjumpedsinceSeptember2021onacombinationof

highnaturalgascostsandexportlimitations 30

Naturalgasconsumptiongrowthinthefertiliserindustryisexpectedto

slowtoanaverageof0.8%intheperiod2020to2025 31

AsiaandtheMiddleEastaccountforabout80%ofmedium-termgas

demandgrowth 32

Spotlightonfast-growingregionsinahighgaspriceandtightsupply

environment 34

Gasdemandgrowthprospectsareslowing,butarestillthere 35

China’sgasconsumptiongrowthissettocontinue,butshiftintoalower

gearin2022-2025 36

China’sdemandgrowthisfuelledbyindustry,whilepowersectoruse

stagnatesin2022-2025 37

China’sdrivetosignnewLNGcontractsandexpanddomesticstorage

couldreduceexposuretomarketvolatilityinthemediumterm 38

India’sgasdemandgrowthprospects:Downbutnotout 39

India’sdemandgrowthissettocomemostlyfromindustryandcitygas

segments;domesticproductionprovidesmorethantwo-thirdsof

incrementalsupply 40

JapanandKoreafaceadeclininggasdemandtrajectoryinthe2021-

2025period 41

DemanddeclineinbothJapanandKoreaisdrivenbyasqueezeon

gasinpowergeneration 42

GasMarketReport,Q3-2022

Tableofcontents

IEA.Allrightsreserved.

PAGE|4

EmergingAsia’soutlookiscaughtbetweenstrongfundamentalsand

lackofLNGaffordability 43

EmergingAsia’s2021-2025gasdemandgrowthismodestbutbroad-

based,drivenmainlybypowergeneration 44

Fuelforgrowth:FocusonAfricannaturalgasmarkets 45

Sub-SaharanAfricaaccountsformorethanhalfofthecontinent’s

growthto2025;demandpotentialishamperedbyachallengingprice

environment 50

Supply 51

NorthAmericaandtheMiddleEasttakeastrongleadonadditionsto

gasproductionwhileRussiadipsondecliningexportprospects 52

Gasproductiongrowthto2025remainslimitedandgeographically

concentrated 54

AbleakoutlookforRussiangasproductionandupstream

development 55

Russia’sdeterioratingexportprospectsleadtoasteepdownward

revisiontoitsproductionoutlook 56

ProspectsforUSgasproductiongrowtharecaughtbetweenshort-term

cautiononspendingandlonger-termoptimismonexportgrowth

potential 57

LNGexportgrowthdrivesmedium-termUSgasproduction

development 59

SouthAmericangasproductionstrugglestogrowbetweenlimited

domesticdemanddevelopmentanddepletioninlegacyproducing

countries 60

SouthAmericangasproductionisexpectedtoincreaseto2025,butto

remainbelowitspre-pandemiclevels 62

Spotlightonlow-carbongases 63

Cleangaspoliciespavethewayforthedeploymentoflow-carbon

gases 64

Keycleangaspoliciesandinitiativesadoptedsincemid-2021 66

EuropeandtheUnitedStatescontinuetoleadbiomethaneproduction

growth 67

Globalbiomethaneproductionisexpectedtoreach10bcmby2025.68

Low-emissionhydrogencontinuestogaintraction 69

ReachingEurope’shydrogenambitionswillrequirestrongerpolicy

support 70

Syntheticmethane:Thenextfrontierforlow-carbongases? 71

Japanforeseesakeyroleforsyntheticmethaneindecarbonisinggas

supply 72

Lookingforapurpose:Adaptingexistinggasinfrastructureforalow-

carbonfuture 73

Gas-to-hydrogenpipelineconversionscanresultinsubstantialcost

savings 74

Trade 75

Globalgastradegrowthisexpectedtoslowsignificantlyinthemedium

term 76

LNGremainsthemaindriverofglobalgastradeduringtheforecast

period 77

GlobalLNGtradegrowthisledbyEuropeandemandandNorth

Americansupplyin2021-2025 78

GlobalLNGtradevolumeisoncoursetoapproach600bcm

by2025 79

LNGinvestment:OnthevergeofanewFIDcycle? 80

LNGinvestment:Tentativerecoveryunderwaysince2021 81

LNGshippingcapacityisoncoursetoexpandby30%between2021

and2025 82

FSRUoutlook:SurgeofinterestinEuroperunsintofleetcapacity

constraints 83

FSRUoutlook:Despiterapidfleetgrowth,Europeandemandcould

quicklyerodesparecapacity 84

GasMarketReport,Q3-2022

Tableofcontents

IEA.Allrightsreserved.

PAGE|5

Long-distancepipelinetradeisexpectedtodeclineoverthemedium

term 85

drivenbyEurope’slowerpipelineimportsfromRussia86

Russia’spivottotheeast:AlongandbumpyroadforRussiangas

towardsAsia 87

ItwouldtakeRussiaatleastadecadetorampupgassuppliestoAsian

marketstoalevelclosetoits2021exportstotheEuropeanUnion 88

Gasmarketupdate 89

Aslightcontractioninglobalgasconsumptionisexpectedin2022after

anextraordinary2021 90

NorthAmericangasdemandcontinuesitsgrowthdespite

risingprices 91

USgasconsumptionisupbycloseto5%y-o-yinthefirsthalf

of2022 92

CentralandSouthAmericangasdemandisexpectedtodeclinein

2022onimprovedhydrogeneration,highimportpricesandlimited

industrialgrowth 93

SouthAmericapreparesforthesouthernwinteramidatightglobal

LNGmarket 94

Europeangasdemandissettofallbelowits2020levelsonongoing

demanddestruction 95

Europeangasconsumptionfellby10%y-o-yinthefirsthalf

of2022 96

Asia’sgasdemandgrowthisoncoursetodeceleratemarkedly

in2022 97

Asia’sgasdemandrecoverywasweakanduneveninQ12022and

remainssothroughout2022 99

USnaturalgasproductionanddrillingactivityincreasedespitecautious

spendingguidance 100

USnaturalgasproductionreboundssinceMarchonhigherassociated

gasoutput 101

USproductionisexpectedtoincreaseby3.4%in2022,drivenby

highersupplyfromthePermianwhilegrowthfromtheAppalachian

slows 102

Fastandflexible:RecordLNGinflowtoEuropeoffsetsthesteepdrop

inRussiangasdeliveries 103

Europe’sLNGimportsaresettohitanall-timehighin2022 104

GlobalLNGtradegrowthisfuelledbyEuropeandemandandUS

supplyin2022 105

Europe’snewfoundappetiteforLNGsetsthepaceforglobalLNGtrade

in2022 106

TightsupplyconditionskeptEuropeanandAsianpricesatseasonal

recordsinQ22022 107

TTFisexpectedtodisplayastrongpremiumoverAsianspotLNG

pricesinH22022 108

GasstoragedynamicsvariedacrosskeyregionsinQ22022 109

TheEuropeanUnionhadalmostentirelyeradicateditsstoragedeficit

bytheendofQ22022 110

Annex 111

Summarytables(1/2) 112

Summarytables(2/2) 113

Regionalandcountrygroupings 114

Abbreviationsandacronyms 115

Unitsofmeasure 115

Acknowledgements,contributorsandcredits 116

GasMarketReport,Q3-2022

Gas2022

IEA.Allrightsreserved.

PAGE|6

Gas2022

GasMarketReportQ32022

Gas2022

IEA.Allrightsreserved.

PAGE|7

Executivesummary

Theglobalnaturalgasmarketbegan2022withexpectationsofmodestdemandgrowth,butthatallchangedwithRussia’sinvasionofUkraineon24February.Inadditiontorepresentingamassivehumantragedy,theinvasiontriggeredamajorenergysupplycrisis,withbroadrepercussionsfortheglobaleconomyandenergyoutlook.

Russia’sinvasionofUkraineredefinesglobalnatural

gasmarkets

Thehighpriceandtightsupplyenvironmentthatbuiltupduringthesecondhalfof2021furtherintensifiedfollowingRussia’sinvasionofUkraine,leadingtofuelswitchinganddemanddestruction.Today’srecordpricesandsupplydisruptionsaredamagingthereputationofnaturalgasasareliableandaffordableenergysource,castinguncertaintyonitsprospects,particularlyindevelopingcountrieswhereithadbeenexpectedtoplayagrowingroleinmeetingrisingenergydemandandenergytransitiongoals.

Globalgasconsumptionisforecasttocontractslightlyin2022,withlimitedgrowthoverthenextthreeyears,resultinginatotalincreaseofabout140bcmbetween2021and2025.Thatislessthanhalfthe370bcmincreaseseeninthepreviousfiveyearsandwellshortoftheexceptionaljumpindemandofcloseto175bcmseenin2021.TheAsiaPacificregionandtheindustrialsectorarethemain

enginesofgrowth,accountingfor50%and60%ofthegrowthto2025respectively,althoughbotharesubjecttodownwardrisksfromhighpricesandpotentiallylowereconomicgrowth.

TheEuropeanUnion’scommitmenttospeedupthephase-outofRussianimports–historicallyitslargestsupplier–istransformingEurope’sgasmarket,withrepercussionsforglobalgasdynamics.TheIEA’s

10-PointPlantoReducetheEuropeanUnion’sReliance

onRussianNaturalGas

identifiedmeasurestoreducegasimportsfromRussiabyoverone-thirdwithinayear,andtheEuropeanCommission’sREPowerEUPlanaimsatacompletephase-outwellbeforetheendofthedecade.Thisreport’sbasecaseassumesRussianpipelinegasexportstotheEUwillfallbyover55%between2021and2025;wealsoconsideranacceleratedcaseinwhichRussianpipelinegasexportstotheEUfallbyover75%comparedto2021.ThehugeuncertaintiesinthisareaareamplifiedbythepossibilitythatRussiawillfurtherrestrictitsexportflowsunilaterally,asithasdonealreadyin2022tocertaincountries.

Tighterforlonger?

Europe’ssurgingdemandforLNGtoreplaceRussianpipelinegassupplyhasledtoanexceptionallytightglobalmarket.RecordhighEuropeangaspriceshaveturnedthecontinentintoapremiummarketforLNG,drawingdeliveriesfromotherregions,andresulting

GasMarketReportQ32022

Gas2022

IEA.Allrightsreserved.

PAGE|8

insupplytensionsanddemanddestructioninseveralmarkets.Europe’sLNGneedsareexpectedtooutpacesupplycapacityadditionsin2022,andtoaccountformorethan60%ofthenetgrowthinglobalLNGtradethrough2025.

LNGliquefactioncapacityadditionsaresettoslowdownsignificantlyovertheforecast’shorizon,raisingtheriskofprolongedtightmarketconditions.Thisresultsfromacombinationofcurtailedinvestmentdecisionsduringtheperiodofloweroilandgaspricesthroughoutthemid-2010s,andconstructiondelaysstemmingfromCovid-19lockdowns(additionalfinalinvestmentdecisionsforLNGliquefactioncapacitytakenoverthelastyearwillcometofruitiononlyaftertheendofourforecastperiod).GlobalLNGtradeisforecasttogrowatanannualaveragerateofjustunder4%during2021-2025,wellbelowthe7%raterecordedoverthepreviousfive

years.Long-distancepipelinetradeissettodeclinebyanaverage1.9%peryear,principallydrivenbydecliningRussianflowstoEurope.

Thescalingupoflow-carbongasproductionandmethaneabatementcanhelpeasesupplypressurewhilereducingemissions.Weforecastbiomethaneproductiontodoublethrough2025,withfurtherupsidepotentialifadditionalpolicymeasuresarequicklyimplemented.Low-carbonhydrogendevelopmentalsocontinuestogaintraction,principallydrivenbyEurope’sstrong

portfolioofprojects.TheIEA’s

GlobalMethaneTracker

showsthatleaksfromoil,gasandcoaloperationsin2021,ifcapturedandused,couldhavebroughtanadditional180bcmofgastomarket–morethantheprojectedconsumptionincreaseto2025.

Slowernaturalgasdemandgrowthdoesnotmeana

fasterenergytransition

Inourbasecase,globalnaturalgasdemandgrowsatanaverageof0.8%peryearthrough2025,amarkedslowdownonthepreviouseditionofthisreport.However,aboutfour-fifthsofthedownwardrevisionistheconsequencesofslowereconomicactivity,andfromreducedcoal-andoil-to-gasswitchingashighgaspricesdelayconversionplans.Thejointimpactofefficiencyandsubstitutionofgasonlyaccountsforone-fifthofthedifference.Maturegasmarketsaccountcollectivelyforover55%ofthedownwardrevision,withEuropetakingalargeshareofthisdifference.

Additionalenergytransitionpolicieswouldneedtobeimplementedinmaturemarketstofurtheracceleratethedeclineofgasconsumption.Suchmeasureswouldalsoeasepressureonpricesgloballyandhelpprice-sensitiveemergingmarketsaccesssuppliesthatcancontributetodeliveringshort-termimprovementsincarbonintensityandairqualitybyquickeningtheirmoveawayfromcoal.

GasMarketReportQ32022

Gas2022

IEA.Allrightsreserved.

PAGE|9

Mainassumptionsbehindtheforecast

GlobalGDPregisteredstronggrowthof5.9%in2021,recoveringfromthepandemic-induced3.2%declineof2020andwiththeoutlookfortheglobaleconomyatthestartof2022beingprolongedandrobustexpansion.Butinadditiontothehumanitariancost,Russia’sinvasionofUkraineinFebruary2022createsnewchallengesfortheglobaleconomyatatimewhenmostmarketsaroundtheworldhadrecoveredfromtheeconomicimpactsoftheCovid-19pandemic.Thewarisexacerbatingpre-existingheadwindsbyexertingfurtherinflationarypressureoncommodityprices,causingsupplychaindisruptionandincreasinguncertainty.

OurforecastisbasedontheassumptionofaverageannualGDPgrowthof3.5%forthe2022to2025period.GDPgrowthisassumedtobe3.4%globallyin2022,curtailedbyacloseto11%y-o-ydropinRussia’seconomyaffectingthewholeEurasianregion’sperformance(down7%).Otherregionsseetheirgrowthratesmoreorlesshalvedcomparedto2021.Europeisoneofthemostaffectedregionsandseesitseconomicgrowthdropbyclosetotwo-thirds,from6%in2021toananticipated2.3%in2022.China’seconomy,underpressurefromthecombinedchallengesofslowergrowthinactivity,spirallingcommoditypricesandtheresurgenceofCovid-19,isassumedtogrowatslightlyabove4.8%in2022.

GlobalGDPgrowthisexpectedtoprogressivelyincreaseinthefollowingthreeyears,oscillatingaround3.6-3.7%during

2023-2025.

Levelsofuncertaintyareveryhighandprincipallyhingeontheevolutionofthewar.Riskstothemacro-economicoutlook,intermsofactivityandinflation,weighonbothnaturalgasdemanddynamicsandsupplyavailabilityandcompetitiveness.TheevolutionoftheCovid-19healthsituationremainsanothermajorriskfactor,specificallytheappearanceandspreadofnewvariants,withhigherriskofcontagionandincreasedresistancetovaccines.ThereturnoflockdownmeasuresinChinaearlyin2022isanillustrationofthisrisk,althoughareturntothewidespreadlockdownsseenin2020lookslesslikely.

Naturalgasconsumptionisparticularlysensitivetotheweather,notablytemperature;thisforecastisbasedontheassumptionofaveragewinterconditionsfortheforthcomingheatingseasons.

Weuseexternalenergypriceassumptionsinourforecast,basedontheaveragefutures’marketpricesobservedduringthemonthofApril2022.

GasMarketReportQ32022

Gas2022

IEA.Allrights

PAGE|10

reserved.

Economicactivityandenergypriceassumptions

Naturalgaspriceassumptions,2019-2025

GDPgrowthassumptions,globalandregional,2019-2025

IEA2022.Allrightsreserved.

Sources:IEAanalysisbasedonIMF(2022),

WorldEconomicOutlook;

OxfordEconomics(2022),

EconomicForecasts

(subscriptionrequired);CME(2022),

HenryHubNaturalGas

FuturesQuotes;

DutchTTFNaturalGasMonthFuturesSettlements;

EIA(2022),

HenryHubNaturalGasSpotPrice;

ICE(2022),

JKM-JapanKoreaMarkerLNGFuture;

ICIS(2022),

ICISLNGEdge

(subscriptionrequired);Powernext(2022),

SpotMarketData.

GasMarketReportQ32022

Gas2022

IEA.Allrightsreserved.

PAGE|11

PhasingoutRussiangas:Anacceleratedcase

GasMarketReportQ32022

Gas2022

IEA.Allrightsreserved.

PAGE|12

RussiangasintheEuropeanUnion:Astateofinterdependency

Europe’sdependenceonenergyimportedfromtheRussiaFederation(hereafter“Russia”)hasbeenthrownintosharpreliefbyRussia’sinvasionofUkraine.TheEuropeanUnion’scommitmentintheVersaillesDeclarationtophaseoutRussianfossilfuelimports“assoonaspossible”issettotransformEurope’senergyandgasmarketsintheyearstocome,withimplicationsforglobaltradeandmarketdynamics.

TherelianceofEUstatesonRussiangashasincreasedsteadilyoverthepastdecade.EUnaturalgasconsumptionstayedbroadlyflatoverthisperiod,butproductionhasfallenbytwo-thirdssince2010andthegaphasbeenfilledbyrisingimports.TheIEAwasamongthefirsttoraiseconcernsaboutthisrisingdependence.TherelianceonRussiangasimportsincreaseddespiterisingtensionsandcrises,includingthesupplycutsinJanuary2009andRussia’sannexationofCrimeain2014.TheshareofRussiangas(includingLNG)meetingtotalEUdemandrosefrom30%in2009to47%in2019.ThestrongLNGinflowin2020,amidglobaloversupply,de