移動平均法和指數(shù)平滑法

周期,年,納稅額(萬元),5年移動平均數(shù),季節(jié)不規(guī)則值,,年份,季節(jié)指數(shù),消除季節(jié)影響的納稅額,趨勢預(yù)測值,季節(jié)預(yù)測值

1,1,4.8,,,,1,0.927251256,5.176590452,6.146016205,5.698901247

,2,4.1,,,,2,0.837074929,4.898008361,6.276951666,5.254278869

,3,5.6,5.4,1.037037037,,3,1.033148519,5.420324279,6.407887127,6.620299094

,4,6,5.6,1.071428571,,4,1.077968474,5.566025487,6.538822588,7.048644606

,5,6.5,5.82,1.116838488,,5,1.131024814,5.74700035,6.669758048,7.543661854

2,1,5.8,5.98,0.969899666,,1,0.927251256,6.255046796,6.146016205,5.698901247

,2,5.2,6.14,0.846905537,,2,0.837074929,6.212108165,6.276951666,5.254278869

,3,6.4,6.32,1.012658228,,3,1.033148519,6.194656318,6.407887127,6.620299094

,4,6.8,6.36,1.06918239,,4,1.077968474,6.308162218,6.538822588,7.048644606

,5,7.4,6.44,1.149068323,,5,1.131024814,6.54273886,6.669758048,7.543661854

3,1,6,6.58,0.911854103,,1,0.927251256,6.470738065,6.146016205,5.698901247

,2,5.6,6.72,0.833333333,,2,0.837074929,6.68996264,6.276951666,5.254278869

,3,7.1,6.8,1.044117647,,3,1.033148519,6.872196853,6.407887127,6.620299094

,4,7.5,6.86,1.093294461,,4,1.077968474,6.957531858,6.538822588,7.048644606

,5,7.8,6.92,1.12716763,,5,1.131024814,6.89640042,6.669758048,7.543661854

4,1,6.3,7,0.9,,1,0.927251256,6.794274968,6.146016205,5.698901247

,2,5.9,7.1,0.830985915,,2,0.837074929,7.048353495,6.276951666,5.254278869

,3,7.5,7.22,1.038781163,,3,1.033148519,7.259362873,6.407887127,6.620299094

,4,8,,,,4,1.077968474,7.421367315,6.538822588,7.048644606

,5,8.4,,,,5,1.131024814,7.42689276,6.669758048,7.543661854

5,2006,,,,,,0.927251256,,268.6716152,249.1260927

,2007,,,,,,0.837074929,,268.8025506,225.0078759

,2008,,,,,,1.033148519,,268.9334861,277.8482328

,2009,,,,,,1.07796847