歐洲氫氣內(nèi)燃機市場前景白皮書-2024-04-新能源

IPUNCHlHydrocels

WHITEPAPER:

HydrogenEngine:MarketperspectivesinEurope

Wemakehydrogen

apracticalproposition

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TABLEOFCONTENTS

1.Introduction

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1.1Theroleofhydrogenintheenergytransition

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1.2Hydrogentechnologies

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1.3OpportunitiesforH2Engine

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2.OpportunitiesforH2technologiesforon-roadandoff-roadapplication

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2.1PromisingapplicationsforHydrogentechnologies

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2.2MarketperspectivesforH2EnginetechnologyinEurope

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0

3.H2EngineEcosysteminEurope

1

3

3.1H2Enginevaluechainandkeyplayers

1

4

4.Conclusions

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5.PUNCHHydrocellsoffering

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7

TABLEOFFIGURES

Figure1:HydrogenValueChain

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Figure2:PUNCHHydrocellsHydrogenEngine

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Figure3:Mainpropulsiontechnologiescomparison

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Figure4:MethodologyfortheTotalCostofOwnershipModel-Capex&Opexvariables

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Figure5:KeydriversoftheTotalCostofOwnershipModel-Capex&Opexvariables

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Figure6:FuelPriceTrends(2024-2037)

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Figure7:Hydrogenpotentialdemandandinvestmentsby2030

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1

Figure8:PotentialHydrogenBackboneandH2Valleys

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1.Introduction

Asgovernmentsandcorporationsarebecomingincreasinglycommittedtoaddressingclimatechangeandreducingemissions,theyareplacinggreateremphasisonthedeepdecarbonizationoftheenergysector,promotingtheenergytransitionfromfossilfuelstonetzerocarbon.

Asaversatileandsustainableenergycarrier,hydrogenisgainingunheard-ofpoliticalandcommercialmomentum,anditmaybethefinalpieceneededtofullydecarbonizeavarietyofindustriesoverthecomingdecadesandopennewopportunitiesforcompaniestobuildanewsustainableandcollaborativeeconomy.

1.1Theroleofhydrogenintheenergytransition

Companiesshouldindeedmakeasubstantialcontributiontotheenergytransitionthatisoccurringthroughoutthewholeenergy,resource,andindustrialsectors.Organizationsintheindustrialandenergysectorswillneedtoadapttothenewchallengewhileremainingresilientandmaintainingtheirpresenceinthemarket.

Theneedtoshifttoalow-carbonsustainableenergysystemsetsthefoundationtoevolve,throughthecreationofcomplementarybusinesses,thecreationofnewmarketsandtherealizationofnewsourcesofvaluefromcurrentassetsandcapabilities.

Hydrogencanbeproducedfromdifferentsources.Itisaflexibleenergycarrierwiththecapacitytodistributeandstoreenormousamountsofenergyratherthanbeinganenergysourcelikenaturalgas,coalorcrudeoil.

ElectrolysisenableshydrogenproductionwithoutemittingCO2.Byprovidingelectricalenergytoacathodeandananode,whichwillproducehydrogenandoxygenrespectively,theelectrolysisofwaterisaccomplished.Whenusingrenewableenergysources,theentireprocessproduceszeroCO2.

NoCO2isproducedusinggreenhydrogenforthedecarbonizationofoureconomy,whilereleasingenergythroughcombustion(burning)oraselectricity(fuelcells).Therefore,substitutinghydrogentoconventionalcarriersinavarietyofeconomicsectors,includingtransportation,domesticandindustrialheating,industrialprocesses,andfeedstockhasthepotentialtosignificantlyreducegreenhousegasemissions.

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Figure1:HydrogenValueChain

1.2Hydrogentechnologies

Reducingemissionsofmanyend-useapplications,suchastransport,mayincludebothhydrogenInternalCombustionEngines(H2-ICE)andHydrogenFuelCell(FC),whichcouldpowervarioususesacrossthevaluechainusingazero-carbonfuel,includingalsoon-highwayandoff-highwayapplications.

Similarlytoanenginepoweredbysparkignition,hydrogenenginescouldworkwithhydrogenasafuel.Ontheotherhand,inafuelcell,hydrogenisconvertedintoelectricitythatisusedtopoweranelectricmotor,muchlikeinanelectricvehicle.Inanycase,hydrogenfuelcellsandenginestendtobecomplementarysincetheycouldthriveinthesameecosystem.

KEYCOMPONENTSOFH

2

Injectionsystem&int.manifold

Ignition

SpecificSW

Airdelivery&charging

Piston&PistonRings

ValvesandValvesSeats

SpecificH2sensors

Figure2:PUNCHHydrocellsHydrogenEngine

PortFuelInjection

ENGINES

Direct

Injection

Sparkplugandcoil

SpecificcontrolsHydrogen

combustion

Improvedturbochargingand

differentvalvephasingforlean

combustion

Specificcompressionratioand

pistonringsoptimization

Materialoptimizationfordry

combustion

DetectionofH2concentration

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1.3OpportunitiesforH2Engine

Inmanyoftheworld’slargestmarkets,regulatorsarebecomingstricterregardingemissions.Asanexample,EuropeanregulatorswillrequiremanufacturerstoreducetheirCO2emissionsfornewon-roadtrucksby30percentfrom2030,comparedwith2019levels1

Regardingoff-highwayvehicles,theyhavehistoricallyreceivedlessregulatoryattention,butOEMsinthismarketarepreparingforgrowingconsumerpressuretoreducecarbonemissions.Forinstance,majorminingcompanieshaveestablishedambitiousdecarbonizationgoalsoverthepasttwoyears,aimingforScope1and2CO2neutrality2,suchasAngloAmericanandFortescue,whichstatedtheirgoalsofScope1and2carbonneutralityby20403.OthercompaniessuchasBHP,RioTinto,Teck,andValehopetohavereachedthesetargetsby2050.Todate,dieselenginesareprimarilyfoundinminingequipmentincludingdumptrucks,haultrucks,loaders,dozers,andexcavators.Asignificantswitchtozero-emissionvehicleswillbenecessarytodrasticallyreducetheemissionsintheminingindustry.

Pressureismountingalsotocreatezero-emissionstechnologiesinotherindustries,suchasconstructionandagriculture.City-levelair-qualityrestrictionsareenforcingdecarbonizationstandardsforconstructionvehiclesanddirectingcustomerstowardzero-emissionsexcavators,loaders,graders,andlifttrucks.Consumerpressuremaywellinduceaquickswitchtozero-emissionfarmtractorsandsprayersduetoincreasedsocialconcernaboutsustainabilityintheagriculturesectors.Inthiscontext,enginespoweredbyhydrogencanhelptoachievezeroemissionsbyutilizingalready-existingtechnology,offeringazeroCO2optionforparticularusecases,andpromotingthedevelopmentof

hydrogeninfrastructure.

Hydrogenpropulsiontechnologiescouldalsoofferpotentialformaritimesector.Themaritimeshippingsectorisessentialfortheglobaleconomy,butitrepresentsasignificantcontributortoworldwideemissions.

However,limitshavebeensetonthesulphurcontentofthefuelintheexistingfleet;EmissionControlAreas(ECAs)withstricterrestrictionswereestablishedtoreduceemissionsfromships.NOxemissionlimitsweresetfornewbuiltships.

AllshipsbuiltafterJanuary1st,2021,andenteringtheBaltic,NorthSea,andEnglishChannelEmissionControlAreasmustmeettheTierIIIstandardestablishedbytheIMO4

[1]“Cuttingemissions:CounciladoptsCO2standardsfortrucks,”CounciloftheEUpressrelease,June13,2019

[2]Scope1emissionsaredirectgreenhouse(GHG)emissionsthatoccurfromsourcesthatarecontrolledorownedbyanorganization(e.g.,emissionsassociatedwithfuelcombustioninboilers,furnaces,vehicles).Scope2emissionsareindirectGHGemissionsassociatedwiththepurchaseofelectricity,steam,heat,orcooling.Source:EPA,

link

[3]AngloAmericanandFortescueannouncement

[4]InternationalMaritimeOrganization(IMO)

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Figure3:Mainpropulsiontechnologiescomparison

2.OpportunitiesofH2technologiesforon-highwayandoff-highwayapplications

2.1PromisingapplicationsforHydrogentechnologies

Hydrogenenginetechnologyhasthepotentialtofillacriticalgapbyutilizingestablishedsupplychainsandtechnologicalinfrastructure.

Despitesignificantadvancements,batteriesandfuel-celltechnologyarestillnotabletoprovidethehighlevelsofpowerrequiredforthechallengingenvironmentsthatmanyheavy-dutyvehicles(particularlyintheoff-highwaycategory)mustoperatein.Forinstance,miningtrucksneedseveralmegawattsofpowertoruncontinuously,aresubjecttointensevibrationsandheatdevelopment,aswellasairbornedust.Thesecriteriahavebeensatisfiedbyinternalcombustionenginesfordecadesandswitchingfromdieseltohydrogencouldbeaneffectiveapproachtodecarbonizingtheseengineswithalittleamountofadditionaltechnologicaldevelopment.

Moreover,hydrogenenginesmayfinduseeveninareaswherebatteriesandfuelcellsaretechnicallyfeasible;therelativehighefficienciesreachedbyhydrogenenginesathighloads,thedecliningpriceofhydrogen,andlowcapexrequirementsforcombustionenginesallcontributetothepossibilityofhydrogenengineasacompetitivealternativeinregardsofTotalCostofOwnership(TCO).

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Overandaboveallthesetechnicalfeatures,hydrogenenginetechnologybringsasignificantadvantageforautomotiveOEMsandcomponentsupplierstokeepleveragingtheircurrentengineeringknow-how,relyingonestablishedsupplychains,andutilizing

existingproductionfacilities.

HydrogenenginecanplaytheirrolewithmultipleapplicationstoprovidecomplementarysolutionstoFCEVs(FuelCellElectricVehicles)andBEVs(BatteryElectricVehicles),supportingthepathtoachievingzeroemissionsacrossvariousapplicationsegments,including:

On-highwayapplication:

Heavy-dutyvehicles

Medium-dutyvehicles/Bus

Light-dutyvehicles

Off-highwayapplications:

Miningandconstructionvehicles(e.g.,excavators,dumptrucks,crawlerdozers),agriculturalvehicles,(e.g.,tractors,harvestingmachinery)andmaterialhandling(e.g.,forklift)

Marineboats(e.g.,taxiboats,cargo,cruises,harbortugs)

Stationaryapplications,suchasGensets

.Railwayapplications(e.g.,shunters)

Amongapplicationsthatcouldbepoweredbycleanenergies,thepotentialofhydrogenenginesagainstothertechnologieshasbeenidentifiedbyperforming,onspecificusecases,theTotalCostofOwnershipanalysis,whichrepresentsthecompletecostthroughtheentirelifecycle.

Figure4:MethodologyfortheTotalCostofOwnershipmodel,tocomparepropulsiontechnologiesonselectedusecases

TocomeclosetoarealisticTCO,alldirectandindirectcosts,havebeenconsideredaccordingtothespecificfeaturesofdifferentusecases.Inparticular:

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>Capitalexpendituresincluding:

Chassis,theframeofthevehicle/device,(includingthewheelsandothercomponentsnotrelatedtothepowertrain)

Powertrain,whichincludesallthenecessarycomponentsdirectlylinkedtotheenergyusedtopowerthevehicle/device

>Operationalexpendituresincluding:

FuelCost,accordingtotheprojectionofhydrogen,diesel,andelectricityinthenext

years

FuelConsumption,drivenbythespecifictechnologyandapplication

.O&McostsasapercentageofCAPEX,basedonthespecifictechnologyconsidered

Figure5:KeydriversoftheTotalCostofOwnershipModel-Capex&Opexvariables

ThefuelcostrepresentsoneofthekeydriversforthecalculationoftheTCOintheperiod2023-2028.

Thehydrogenpricehasbeenestimatedfortwodifferentmodels(centralizedanddecentralized)withdifferentsupplychainsanddifferentproductionratesfromelectrolysisdirectlyconnectedtoRES.

Severalkeytrends,(e.g.,decreasingcostsofRESandelectrolyzer)couldmakehydrogencheaperby2030.

Thedeclineingenerationcostscouldalsosupportreducingelectricitycosts(whichconsidersbaseprice,gridfees,taxesandsurchargesandinfrastructure-relatedcosts).Until2030thebaseelectricitypriceisexpectedtodecrease,forbothfastandstandardchargingtypes.

ThemarketdevelopmentoverthenextyearsiscrucialforachievingclimategoalsandCO2-intensivetechnologysuchasdieselissettobereplacedacrosstheEU.

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DieselcostssoaredtorecordhighsinmanycountriesacrossEuropeandareexpectedtogrowduetoademanddrop.

Todayhighgreenfuelcostsrepresentabarriertothewidespreadadoptionofalternativetechnologies,buttrendsshowacostshiftinthispattern.

Figure6:FuelPriceTrends(2024–2037)

TheH2productionmodels(decentralizedandcentralized)arebasedontheintegrationofsolarphotovoltaicplantwithelectrolyzertoproducegreenH2.

AdecentralizedscenarioconsidersH2productionnearthepointofusewithouttheneedofaninfrastructurefortransportingitoverlongdistances.

Acentralizedscenarioconsidersadecentralizedmodeluntil2026andalarge-scaleproductionplant(~500MW)forthenextyears.

FuelcostisthemaincostdriverofTCOsandisexpectedtosupportthefuturecompetitivenessofelectricmotors,fuelcells,andH2-ICEpropulsiontechnologies.

DieselICEisexpectedtodecreasemarketpenetrationinEurope,duetohighTCOs,drivenbytheexpectedincreasingcostoffuelandincreasingvalueofCarbonTax.

Basedonthe2024-2028TCOanalysis,theH2-ICEpropulsiontechnologyisexpectedtobecompetitiveinHeavyDuty(TruckandBus),Genset,ConstructionMachinery,MarineandTrainapplications.

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2.2MarketperspectivesforH2technologyinEurope

H2-ICEtechnologyisexpectedtogrowinEuropeinthenextfewyears,forGenset,forkliftandheavy-dutytrucks.ThemarketgrowthwilldependonhowtheH2marketandtheinfrastructurewillbedeveloped,andhowsomeapplicationsthattodayareprototypes(e.g.,marine,construction)willincreasetheirpenetrationinthenextyears.

H2-ICEvolumesinEuropehavebeenestimatedconsideringthefollowingdrivers:

Keymarkettrendsforconsideredindustries(e.g.,marketsizeandexpectedgrowth);.H2-ICETCOpositioningcomparedtoothertechnologies;

.ExpectedvolumesofHydrogenFuelCellsinselectedindustries;

GreenhydrogenproductionforecastinEurope,in2023-2028;timeframe,consideringEuropeanCommission2030targets;

Expectedregulationsonspecifictopics(CO2emissionsandhydrogen)inEurope(e.g.,On-road);

.OEMabilitytotransformconventionalenginesproductionplanttoproduceBEV,FCandH2-ICE.

Hydrogenisexpectedtocover4-6%ofEuropeanenergydemandby2030,drivenby:

EUCommission2030targetsforHydrogenproduction:40GWofrenewablehydrogenelectrolyzersinEUand10MtonnesofGreenHydrogenproducedin

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Europe

EUCommission2030targetsforHydrogenDeliveryInfrastructure:Onerefuelingstationwillbeavailableevery200kmalongtheTrans-EuropeanTransportNetwork(TEN-T)andineveryurbannode6

.H2Demand:14-20MtofGreenH2expecteddemandby2030(consideringexpected480-670TWhofenergydemandcoveredbyH2)7

H2Distribution:~3.750HydrogenRefuelingStationsrequiredby2030(vs750announcedby2025),implying~8,5BnEuroinvestments8

Investments:~30BnEuroofprojectedhydrogeninvestmentby2030inEurope,coveringtheentirehydrogenvaluechain9

[5]EuropeanCommission,July2021

[6]EuropeanCommission,July2021

[7]FuelCellsandHydrogenJointUndertaking,Feb.2019

[8]FuelCellsandHydrogenJointUndertaking,Feb.2019

[9]HydrogenCouncil,Feb.2021

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Figure7:Hydrogenpotentialdemandandinvestmentsby2030

On-highwayapplications

On-highwayapplicationsincludelightcommercialvehicles(LCV),mediumandheavy-dutyvehicles.

H2-ICEvolumesforon-highwayapplicationshasbeenestimatedconsideringexpectedincreaseinthecostofDiesel(drivenbyexpectedcarbontaxintroductioninthenextfewyears),thehighestestimationoftheDieselTCOinthenextyearscomparedtoH2-ICETCOandthebanonsalesofnewfossil-fuelvehiclesinEuropeby2035.

H2technologiesareexpectedtoincreaseataslowerpacethanelectricmotors,consideringtheH2deliveryinfrastructuretobedeveloped(i.e.,3.750HydrogenRefuelingStationsrequiredby2030).Moreover,theHydrogenICEisassumedtoincreaseataslowerpacethanFuelCells,consideringtheanalysisTotalCostofOwnershipforselectedusecases.

AnalysisshowsH2-ICEpenetrationonnewsalesin2028isexpectedtobehigherforHighDutyVehiclescomparedtoMedium-HighDutyVehicles/BusesandLightCommercialVehicles,characterizedbyprototypedevelopmentsin2023andfastergrowthbetween2026-2028.

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Marineapplications

Marineapplicationsincludebulkcarriers,tankers,containerships,ferries,motorpassengerboats.

H2-ICEvolumesforMarineapplicationshavebeenestimatedinlightofanexpecteddecreaseofvolumesforfossilfuelships,consideringtheInternationalMaritimeOrganization(IMO)GHGstrategytoreducecarbonintensityofinternationalshippingby40%by20301comparedto2008,aswellasthelowerTCOofH2solutionscomparedtoconventionalones,whichisexpectedtoboosttheuseofHydrogenformaritimeapplications.

TheH2-ICEisexpectedtogrowafter2028,consideringprototypescurrentlyunderconstructionandtheneedtodevelopH2infrastructureinEuropeanPorts.Pilotinitiativeshavebeenalreadylaunched(e.g.,FCHJU-fundedH2PORTS)andsomeportshaveadefinedroadmap(e.g.,PortofRotterdam).

Constructionequipment&agriculture

Analysishasincludedvehiclesforconstructionequipment(e.g.,excavators,crawlers,backhoes,loaders),materialhandling(i.e.,forklift)andagriculturemachinery(e.g.,agriculturetractor,harvester).

Theconstructionindustryplaysasubstantialroleintheclimatecrisisglobally,contributingtomorethan23%oftheworld'sGHGemissions.

Hydrogenrefuelingcanbebuilton-site,providingenoughhydrogentofuelafleetofoff-

highwayvehicles.

MaterialhandlingisexpectedtodominatetheconstructionequipmentH2market,consideringfuelcellincreasingpenetrationamonglargeindustriallogisticchains.

H2-ICEinconstructionapplicationsisexpectedtogrowafter2028,consideringtheneedfordevelopingtheH2infrastructure,whichwillbemoreconvenientforindustrialdistrictareas,whereitcansupplyseveralindustryplayers.

PowerGenerators

TheanalysisincludedCHP,residentialandcommercialGensets,witha100kW–2MW

powerrange.

ConsideringtheTCOanalysis,thecompetitivenessofhydrogen-basedgensets,

[10]InternationalMaritimeOrganization(IMO)

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thecompetitivenessofhydrogen-basedgensets,thenumberofdieselsgensetssoldinEuropeisassumedtocontinuetodecreaseinthenextyearsinfavoroffuelcellsandhydrogenengines.

Hydrogenenginegensetsareexpectedtoachievearelevantmarketshareinnewsalesby2028,drivenbyincreasingdemandforH2-ICEGensetbyDataCenteroperatorsandoff-gridapplicationsoperators.

ConclusionsonH2-ICEmarketperspectives

H2-ICEsolutionsareexpectedtogetapotentialmarketshareforgenset,trains,construction,agricultural,andsomeon-highwayusecases(especiallytrucks).

TheanalysisshowsthatthemarketgrowthwilldependonhowtheH2marketandtheinfrastructurewillbedevelopedandonhowsomeapplicationsthattodayareprototypes(e.g.,marine,construction)willincreasethepenetrationinthenextyears.

3.H2-ICEEcosysteminEurope

AcceleratingthedevelopmentofH2-ICEmarketinEuropeinthenextyearswillrequiretoaddress3keychallenges:

1.DevelopecosystemstoconnecthydrogensupplywithdemandthroughH2valleys:CentralizedanddecentralizedHydrogenproductionsitesneedtobedevelopedinEuropetoaddressexpecteddemand,inlinewithEUtargetsintransitioningtowards

zero-emissionfuels

2.DevelopspecificH2infrastructurefordifferentfinal-useapplications:Europeanbackboneneedstobedevelopedtoguaranteehydrogensupplytokeymarketplayersacrosstheentirecontinent

3.Evaluatecollaborativebusinessmodelsleveragingkeyplayersinthevaluechain:collaborationswithmainplayersengagedinthevaluechainofhydrogenandfinalapplicationtoacceleratethedevelopmentoftheH2-ICEmarket

H2valleysunderdevelopmentinEuropeareexpectedtocoverregionalareasandfocusonmobilityend-usesupplyandEuropeanHydrogeninfrastructureneedstobedevelopedtoaddressthespecificneedsoffinal-useapplications.

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Figure8:PotentialHydrogenBackboneandH2Valleys

Projectsneedtoaddressallbarrierstohydrogenvalleyshighlighted,obtainingpublicandprivatefunding,securingoff-takecommitmentsaswellasmanagingtechnological

readiness...

Effectivepartneringandstakeholdercooperationareessentialtoensurecontinuouscommitmentfromallpartiesinvolved.

Hydrogenvalleysareexpectedtounfoldtheirfullpotentialinthecomingyears,increasingtheircommercialmaturityandensuringthesuccessoftheenergytransition.

TheEuropeanH2infrastructurewillbecomeincreasinglyimportantastheadoptionofhydrogeninthetransport,industryandpowersectorsaccelerates.

TosupporttheREPowerEUambitions,theHydrogeninfrastructureinEuropeneedstobedeveloped,bygraduallyconnectingindustrialclusterstotheemerginginfrastructureandgrowingnetworktomoreEUcountries.

3.1H2-ICEvaluechainandkeyplayers

Threemainbusinessareascanbeidentifiedintheend-to-endH2-ICEValueChain:

H2EcosystemValueChain:

H2Production:Producerofgreenhydrogenandenableroflarge-scalegenerationandintegrationwithRES;

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H2Handling:Enablerforgreenhydrogentransportanddistributiontoendusers;

H2End-useValueChain:

H2Powertrain&components:Providerofenginesandsupplementarycomponentsforengineoperations(e.g.,storage,electricalconnections);

.Applicationsmanufacturers:Manufactureroffinalapplication(e.g.,vehicle,ship,etc.);

ConnectedPlayers:

Certification’sauthority:Promoterofthesustainablegrowthbyensuringcompliancewiththestandards;

Public&Privateauthorities:Coordinatorofinvestments,enablerofregulatoryframeworkandresearchandinfrastructureproviderandmanagementcompanies.

Inparticular,H2-ICEprojectsandsolutionsarebeingdevelopedbyOEMs,includingthefollowing:

Cumminshasledtheprojecttodevelopahydrogen-fuelledengineforcommercial

transport11;

JCBhasannouncedanH2engine4.8lPFIfortheirconstructionmachineryandtheDevelopmentofDirectInjectionsolutions12;

DeutzdevelopedtheTCG7.8H2engine,whichhasalreadypassedinitialtestsonthetestbenchandisscheduledtogointofullproductionin202413;

MANpresentedtheZero-EmissionRoadmap,wherethehydrogencombustionengine,offersamorereadilyavailableandrobustsolutionthankstothewell-knownbasictechnologyandcouldthusserveasabridgingtechnology14;

.YanmarPowerTechnology,KawasakiHeavyIndustries,andJapanEngineCorporationformedaconsortiumofJapaneseenginemanufacturerstopursuejointdevelopmentofhydrogen-fueledmarineenginesforocean-goingandcoastalvesselstowardsestablishingaworld-leadingpositioninhydrogenenginetechnologiestobringtothemarketby202515;

·IsuzuMotors,DENSOCorporation,ToyotaMotorCorporation,HinoMotorsandCommercialJapanPartnershipTechnologiesCorporation(CJPT)havestartedplanningandfoundationalresearchonhydrogenenginesforheavy-dutycommercialvehiclestofurtherutilizeinternalcombustionenginesasoneoptiontoachieve

carbonneutrality16.

[11]Cummins,"CumminsreceivesawardfromtheUKGovernmenttoacceleratehydrogenenginedevelopmentformediumandheavy-dutyengines",September2021(

link

);

[12]JCBdebutsclean-sheethydrogencombustionengine,March2022(

l