1993年以來美國庫存周期復(fù)盤啟示：庫存周期視角下的美國經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退與否

1. .1 ?L4-L?< (1993.7—1994.12 .7

1.2 *71*L=/?-*7/-?/-4Ir?? 41995.1—1995.4/1995.5—199ó.1) /

1.34?t+ó L/ (1996.1—1996.12) .8

2? s.12-?sst.2(y—e?-?ax,?xxa-saAAxAa?*6a*............................................................................

2.1.1/ó*I-?.-’??/c?L7-?i? (1996.12-1997.2/1997.3—1998.3) S

z.2?-/-

I

?

(1998.4—198.7?

..... ......... .........................................................................................................................10

2.3?\

T?

(1998.8—1999.2?

11

3

1999.3—20o2.1

t￥

e? :-s-eR?e

as4a4aa z2

3.1II 11-4L

?<

(1999.3—2000.1)

.12

c.2??????/1

(2000.2-2000.8)

....................................................................................................................................................l3

s.3 ?z-

i

(2000.9-200i.9

.1

4.1TL II?/x(2002.2—2003.3) 16

4.24.4-'?<(2003.4—2003.9) .1o

2003.10-2009.8(y ):?< ANA 4 4 A 16

5. 1?/*L1L? (2003.10—2005.1) 16

5.2z(*?*L?4USB(2005.2—200ó.8 17

5.311 2? (2006.9—2009.4) .18

5.4?t?z /Irt (2009.5—2009.8 18

2oos.9—2013.9(y—e?:ast tocazt4A&wtyst6. 1s

6.1 / ?I (2009.9—2010.4? 1s

6.2??zó?L4T? (2010.5—2011.5) 20

6.3 /- Inne(2011.ó—2013.4?.,. 21

4I/ (2O13.5—2013.9) 21

2o13.10-2o1s.10(￥ee? :stImatteaTPPo La? 4ay aT. 22

7.1?z/ \? L?< (2013.10-2013.11) .22

7.2?.'t/?? It (2013.12—2014.8? 2

7.3 z/ 4I <(2014.9—2015.8) .23

7.4?t/ I?.? (2015.9—201ó.10? 2s

201ó.11—2020.ó(y.x&?:ys6Ag“a6&v"H -??s?'i1AoiA”SA.AIT I6. 24

8.11.*I*L/%,￠2016.11—201B.5J 24

8.2!\??r (2c18.6—2019.s) ,25

8.3 /-? IrT f2019.6—2020.4? 27

8.44gz/.1I?<(2020.5—2020.6J 27

92o2o.z—a202a.1?yy?:cae'>a?+z,??.?aaae???+aa. 2

9.1 7Lk ? (2020.7—2021.4) 28

2?t?/*??I (2021.5—2022.6? 29

9.3.1zZ /\ (2022.7—2023.6) .30

2/38

.4aa+aatz(2o2z.7—joka.1? ,ai

Jo=+N4ae: ea6*62o2?&&oAseZ,2o2?&ABB*6aeott?J- 32

jo.1￡.?*:fJa&Jae ?&aAN %rxJ?^-w2tuo. fz??. ?ai. 1￥4,.,.....,.,.....,.,.....,.,. 3z

jo.2ammu.i:zz4+a?<+xa??+ac++z,z+exx+?x. zs

BO11993TMAtt6a:DATs&e2&&aJg&. s

BIA21993-9-SAABl&44s.R s

BOU?WrRR”FaL&6a?&Jt. ?9

an222o?s￥ yAe+xe.arn?reaa4. ?

￥IA23tt?-4? €'Rfb'&Me1. 2o

BA24y:=&&&j4s1aea,?ta#BwA. jo

sais??y?x+esa+<???+.a+?. 22

zlA2+A?Az?e?,aa4?a. 23

sa27eaaxxo?,aAs"r??+<?1$-k?oe. 28

￥I&2s2o1s&RP&Bx4aA&&e(*fV? 24

BA2930TA'rttge4J66nJ&Afka. 25

g&3oaea6'&A'e1,66a-XRGV. 2s

BO31Rs&ztR&xA&aIz&?&6? 2s

I￥I&32ABAAttW J&ftPul-?.&TR&6 26

axa3saa="rasa+iaxozi-re. 2s

HA38AAAAA??eA*,Baek#tt 3o

?)A39T?)?i%RiG&AT&. 3O

HA?+*?￥gA%?AsmT% 3o

yAuaa?6.?a'?a”ra,?caP'?a?x. i

gA?6w.1fiAB&A-Rg& 32

Inc 4s+iAAPutava?s e 3s

gA46wa4-?e6p6Ia?tau1.saA#u. 33

al?oa6ecasepeAo+￥.re?Tafr. 34

qA?￥11ff,A a?w*?&V?t. 34

BA?9e&sRyo&&oIs. 3s

?gsog?ocao?pasa<??????g. 3s

aa1i?*er*A?Aaaai

Ts&e??+èa?

-+-

.

.-?”?’

?.1;-

?ass,

=?="

.1

9@BG

1993.7

1996.12

1999.3

2002..2

2003.10

2.0?9.9

2013.10

201?.11

2020.7

?*?04/i

1994.12

1997.2

200?.1

2003.3

2005.1

2?10.4

2012.11

2018.5

2?21.4

k

9@B@

1995.1

1997.3

2000.2

2003.4

2005.2

2010.5

2013.12

2018.6

2021.5

6B4Z

1995.4

1998.3

2000.8

2003.4

2006.8

2011.5

201.4.8

2019.5

2022.6

1

& B#I

1995.5

1998.4

2000.9

2003.4

2.006.9

20?1.6

2014.9

2019.6

2022.7

**AEIá1

1996.1

1998.7

2001.9

2003.4

2009.4

2013.4

2015.8

2020.4

2023.6

.

@

& B?

1996.2

1998.8

2001.10

2003.5

2009.5

2013.5

2.015.9

2020.5

2023.7

?*&B4Z

1996.12

1999.2

2002.1

2003.9

2009.8

20?3.9

2016.10

2020.6

2024.2

ZU1()

-1t)

—2()

aAJ°9s4A2023e&afl>Au&A,

26aAR&A+t,?yAsABWDw&AV&As.ms&üX??t&?,A

. , - . ..

*?44J?6/?66?a ,@s/A1&4a.aeAü6k?A&??rl4°Boroest

?a&#=A?eR&aeft&6?AaaP61°???g.p?A?°:J1,ibid.?

e?+Ax?g?p?aa?,o??pxs.e?????i+athis?Axws6

?, aa+<?p??g?4c?°aa?e,??az°a??=Jàg^.??'I=?+I+a?t

Boro?WoxaA1RXaaXA?t,x??fá P6^wrx,1?fi:?o.era-rd,AArA&Türt1@A&8?Jk6??&x?^.Ae? a6, &&1fańA:?Ma.

A ?a??aAfi￥3+fì?nLa 1, AH??g?+.?af??a.<afi,g??

2ox4-?aflaraARAAueHa&aPa￥+ea&sss?it#r&,

Qv*6YA&&ftèA&:OkfL6,€-?êA6tt'b.AT4.a&16?4z&?co

1&A&11&6R&eX1-24?,zLaxAA&&Asèt6A&9as.16

1FP'x&è:61F&l￥t8.IB*L.zL&4J,ü?AA,2o244ABBC&êB9Q

1 1993.7-1996.12(? D) : O>§A@??&,t??

1.11?è?&@&(1993.7—1994.12)

zo4??,ABaa6*?6?9￥6,A&a&s€1te?A&&6&e"F

1.2 %?1F@/1?-é-&I!ê?P(1995.1-1995.4/1995.5-1996.1)

+a??eay?>.1 4+2?x?a?z,°=?i?c??°e??aa?e+-%atJfA&e6fio"°?@1r?" A4xK.TA,￡e2,1üfaAal &&*°.è?

1.3@%I-2-&&ét(1996.1—1996.12)

21996.12-1999.2 (@1D) :IN@tfL,PA￥ @

'TheHeritageFoundation.(n.d.).IsThereaClintonCrunch?:Howthe1993BudgetPlanAffectedtheEconomy.Retrievedfrom

.

12

10

g

54

52

2

4B

-2

-4

44

#2

2.11@1?&/?61?&???B(1996.12-1997.271P97.3-

1998.3)

11)7

99

7,

2.2?.?-?@&?B(1998.4-1998.7)

sIAsB6AT4/tea=A#JY?

107-

7a D7

95 45

2.? t?aai$?A(J99s.g-i999.2)

sIA7fBTs61X???W?A&-km

31999.3-2002.1(@ü?.D) : AT?B?&???%

, .

3.11@?h&?9(1999.3-2000.1)

,em4?@.66&u??e?6aT1A&6r?1...Ji?,f?1...?i?

1?L/àsf4'a.a1A@?a&16,kAR1?z?6aXA&6T.

efiX-aJtA an,e&RaaTar1aTTA.AA+i?wJta& .

?ess+a+x?i???t?Aatz.xxp,a?t?E+????ao.?<?r?a??x1 ? 7x.<*?o???+A'+aü<,ea+.tx/=?t?oaa??c

g19a66AttVa&,&Anx.ky

25

211

3.2???h&&9(2000.2-2000.8)

3.31?-Z-@@&(2000.9—200J.9)

slAlt&aR1a-ax.aha&D"r&

4fIU,tifi??

! 2üO

3.4?@&@@9(2001.10-2002.1)

7,tXy)

1r?

1f.I

'12

òb

'2

ó2

sIA1*??x?ó??á?.#L4aT&6Aa

42002.2-2003.9(?\Q4#) : ?@@@.*?&U*?-AQ

4.1???I?@(2002.2—2003.3)

4.2-?&I?@(2003.4-2003.9)

V@Ac6?t6a/tAJ?asAAsY1?teHTBI,?*BaJY?-rd.

j(l$

7S

?7ti,0t?i1

17U,tKx1

5.2??è??@?ê(2005.2-2006.8)

5.31?&&&?ê(2006.9-2009.4)

@?m,nrfaJt-Finn èa*Aa?4?èJ??6y?4?rA66,?@aea,?

5.4??-?-&&??(?0o9.?-2009.8)

zoom&￥=6 It,￥=Y&ea Y.v?#e1Aa,*i/sa.1\4?°°° 61k

3(l

4

tl

-2

-3

-4

6.2%???@@?(2010.5—2011.5)

x*+?'?i-as,

+<?x??'xA?rr'

NA2<￥=&R4as.à.AeR??B?s11

75

-25

7f)

-2()

65

6.31?￥-@???“i&(2011.ó-2013.4)

?RassA?"A4-na,?gR??aaeWa,ax'aad=?,arse

ó.4???-??￥“i& (2013.5-2013.9)

o<e<s?4'l?asri?xz?,xnio?=?wva???.a??st?axr.ex?k

9A?AT6A?R,?t6 1Ja

ae

ń???6'iaoa .

la eD*-ras-

psT—35”coA1&??Am,? 6

B?

.

F2

IS

48

7.31?-?-&@9(2014.9-2015.8)

a.zo?4&safi U1a?AA+sJt6.z')&1s?, 91Nea?a?<?4

7.4?@-?@&9(2015.9—2016.10)

23/3