2024年世界人口展望-結(jié)果摘要 World Population Prospects 2024-聯(lián)合國

WorldPopulationProspects2024

SummaryofResults

World

PopulationProspects2024

SummaryofResults

UnitedNationsDepartmentofEconomicandSocialAffairs,PopulationDivision

TheDepartmentofEconomicandSocialAffairsoftheUnitedNationsSecretariatisavitalinterfacebetweenglobalpoliciesintheeconomic,socialandenvironmentalspheresandnationalaction.TheDepartmentworksinthreemaininterlinkedareas:(i)itcompiles,generatesandanalysesawiderangeofeconomic,socialandenvironmentaldataandinformationonwhichStatesMembersoftheUnitedNationsdrawtoreviewcommonproblemsandtakestockofpolicyoptions;(ii)itfacilitatesthenegotiationsofMemberStatesinmanyintergovernmentalbodiesonjointcoursesofactiontoaddressongoingoremergingglobalchallenges;and(iii)itadvisesinterestedGovernmentsonthewaysandmeansoftranslatingpolicyframeworksdevelopedinUnitedNationsconferencesandsummitsintoprogrammesatthecountryleveland,throughtechnicalassistance,helpsbuildnationalcapacities.

ThePopulationDivisionoftheDepartmentofEconomicandSocialAffairsprovidestheinternationalcommunitywithtimelyandaccessiblepopulationdataandanalysisofpopulationtrendsanddevelopmentoutcomesforallcountriesandareasoftheworld.Tothisend,theDivisionundertakesregularstudiesofpopulationsizeandcharacteristicsandofallthreecomponentsofpopulationchange(fertility,mortalityandmigration).Foundedin1946,thePopulationDivisionprovidessubstantivesupportonpopulationanddevelopmentissuestotheUnitedNationsGeneralAssembly,theEconomicandSocialCouncilandtheCommissiononPopulationandDevelopment.ItalsoleadsorparticipatesinvariousinteragencycoordinationmechanismsoftheUnitedNationssystem.TheworkoftheDivisionalsocontributestostrengtheningthecapacityofMemberStatestomonitorpopulationtrendsandtoaddresscurrentandemergingpopulationissues.

Suggestedcitation

UnitedNationsDepartmentofEconomicandSocialAffairs,PopulationDivision(2024).WorldPopulationProspects2024:SummaryofResults(UNDESA/POP/2024/TR/NO.9).

ThisreportisavailableinelectronicformatontheDivision’swebsiteat.Forfurtherinformationaboutthisreport,pleasecontacttheOfficeoftheDirector,PopulationDivision,DepartmentofEconomicandSocialAffairs,UnitedNations,NewYork,10017,USA,byFax:12129632147orbyemailatpopulation@.

Copyrightinformation

Frontcover:“ChildrenplayonanewlyconstructedplaygroundbythecommunitynutritionsiteinthevillageofSoavinainMadagascar”,WorldBank/SarahFarhat.

Backcover:“FamiliesenjoyinganafternooninSimonBolivarParkinBogotá,ColombiaonJanuary11,2016”.WorldBank/DominicChavez.

UnitedNationsPublication

SalesNo.:E.24.XIII.5

ISBN:9789210031691eISBN:9789211065138

Copyright?UnitedNations,2024.

Figuresandtablesinthispublicationcanbereproducedwithoutpriorpermission,madeavailableunderaCreativeCommonslicense(CCBY3.0IGO),

/licenses/by/3.0/igo/

UNDESA/POP/2024/TR/NO.9

DepartmentofEconomicandSocialAffairsPopulationDivision

WorldPopulationProspects2024SummaryofResults

UnitedNationsNewYork,2024

Acknowledgements

ThisreportwaspreparedbyateamledbyClareMenozziincludingThomasSpoorenbergandLinaBassarskywithadditionalsupportfromVladimíraKantorováandLubovZeifman.

ThegraphsandfigureswerepreparedbyateamledbyLinaBassarskyincludingMarkWheldon,GiuliaGonnella,LubovZeifmanandDananGuwithadditionalsupportfromZiruiChen.

TheauthorswishtothankJohnWilmoth,KarolineSchmid,PatrickGerland,CherylSawyer,StephenKisambira,SaraHertogandMarkWheldonforreviewingthedraft.

TheWorldPopulationProspects2024datawerepreparedbyateamledbyPatrickGerland,includingSrikanthAthaluri,HelenaCruzCastanheira,FernandoFernandes,SaraHertog,YumikoKamiya,

VladimíraKantorová,PabloLattes,KyawKyawLay,JosephMolitoris,SuryanarayanaMurthy

Palacharla,JoséHenriqueMonteirodaSilva,MarkWheldon,IvánWilliams,ChandraYamarthyand

LubovZeifman,withtheassistanceofFengqingChao,JorgeCimentada,Ivan?ipin,SeharEzdi,GiuliaGonnella,PetraMedimurec,AdrianRaftery,JamesRaymer,TimRiffe,CarlSchmertmann,Hana

?ev?íkováandBrunoSchoumaker.TheteamisgratefultoothercolleaguesinthePopulationDivisionforthesupporttheyhaveprovided,aswellascolleaguesfromtheLatinAmericanandCaribbean

DemographicCentre,PopulationDivisionoftheUnitedNationsEconomicCommissionforLatin

AmericaandtheCaribbean(ECLAC),theDemographicStatisticsSectionoftheStatisticsDivisionoftheUnitedNationsDepartmentofEconomicandSocialAffairs,andtheteamsoftheUnitedNationsInter-

AgencyGroupforChildMortalityEstimation(UNIGME)andtheWHO-UNDESATechnicalAdvisoryGrouponCOVIDMortalityAssessmentfortheirinputsandcontinuoussupport.

TheassistanceofWilliamDunbar,DonnaCulpepperandBintouPapouteOuedraogoineditinganddesktoppublishingisacknowledged.

Contents

Notesonregions,developmentgroups,countriesorareas iv

Keymessages 1

Introduction 6

I.Awarenessofpopulationtrendsiscriticalforachievingasustainablefuture 8

II.Countrieswithpopulationsthathavealreadypeaked 18

III.Countrieswithpopulationsthatarelikelytopeakwithinthenext30years 30

IV.Countrieswithpopulationsthatareprojectedtocontinuegrowingthrough2054,

potentiallyreachingapeaklaterinthecenturyorbeyond2100 39

References 55

Annex:What’snewinthe2024revision? 59

Explanatorynotes

Thefollowingsymbolshavebeenusedinthetablesthroughoutthisreport:Aminussign(-)beforeafigureindicatesadecreaseornegativenumber.

Afullstop(.)isusedtoindicatedecimals.Yearsgivenreferto1July.

Useofadash(–)betweenyears,forexample,1995–2000,signifiesthefullperiodinvolved,from1Julyofthefirstyearto1Julyofthesecondyear.

Numbersandpercentagesinthistabledonotnecessarilyaddtototalsbecauseofrounding.

Referencestoregion,developmentgroup,countryorarea:

ThedesignationsemployedinthispublicationandthematerialpresentedinitdonotimplytheexpressionofanyopinionswhatsoeveronthepartoftheSecretariatoftheUnitedNationsconcerningthelegalstatusofanycountry,territory,cityorareaorofitsauthorities,orconcerningthedelimitationofitsfrontiersorboundaries.Theterm“country”asusedinthisreportalsorefers,asappropriate,toterritoriesorareas.

Inthispublication,dataforcountriesandareasareoftenaggregatedinsixcontinentalregions:Africa,

Asia,Europe,LatinAmericaandtheCaribbean,NorthernAmerica,andOceania.Furtherinformationoncontinentalregionsisavailablefrom:

/unsd/methodology/m49/

.Countriesandareashavealsobeengroupedintogeographicregionsbasedontheclassificationbeingusedtotrackprogress

towardstheSustainableDevelopmentGoalsoftheUnitedNations(see:

/

sdgs/indicators/regional-groups/).

Thedesignationof“moredeveloped”and“l(fā)essdeveloped”,or“developed”and“developing”,isintendedforstatisticalpurposesanddoesnotexpressajudgmentaboutthestageinthedevelopmentprocess

reachedbyaparticularcountryorarea.Moredevelopedregionscompriseallcountriesandareasof

EuropeandNorth-ernAmerica,plusAustralia,NewZealandandJapan.LessdevelopedregionscompriseallcountriesandareasofAfrica,Asia(excludingJapan),LatinAmericaandtheCaribbean,andOceania(excludingAustraliaandNewZealand).

Thegroupofleastdevelopedcountries(LDCs)includes45countries,asof8May2024,locatedinsub-SaharanAfrica(32),NorthernAfricaandWesternAsia(2),CentralandSouthernAsia(3),EasternandSouth-EasternAsia(4),LatinAmericaandtheCaribbean(1),andOceania(3).Furtherinformationis

availableat:

/ohrlls/

.

Theclassificationofcountriesandareasbyincomelevelisbasedongrossnationalincome(GNI)per

capitaasreportedbytheWorldBank(May2024).Theseincomegroupsarenotavailableforallcountriesandareas.Furtherinformationisavailableat:

/knowledgebase/articles/906519.

UnitedNationsDepartmentofEconomicandSocialAffairs,PopulationDivision

Listofabbreviations

AIDSacquiredimmunedeficiencysyndrome

COVID-19coronavirusdisease2019

CRVScivilregistrationandvitalstatisticsDALYdisability-adjustedlifeexpectancy

GBDGlobalBurdenofDiseases

GCCCooperationCouncilfortheArabStatesoftheGulf

GDPgrossdomesticproduct

HALEhealthylifeexpectancy

HIVhumanimmunodeficiencyvirus

ICPDInternationalConferenceonPopulationandDevelopment

IHMEInstituteofHealthMetricsandEvaluation

IIASAInternationalInstituteforAppliedSystemsAnalysis

ISCEDInternationalStandardClassificationofEducation

SDGsSustainableDevelopmentGoals

TFRtotalfertilityrate

UNDESAUnitedNationsDepartmentofEconomicandSocialAffairs

UNIGMEUnitedNationsInter-AgencyGroupforChildMortalityEstimation

UNESCOUnitedNationsEducational,ScientificandCulturalOrganization

UNHCRUnitedNationsHighCommissionerforRefugees

UNICEFUnitedNationsChildren’sFund

WHOWorldHealthOrganization

WorldPopulationProspects2024:SummaryofResults1

UnitedNationsDepartmentofEconomicandSocialAffairs,PopulationDivision

Keymessages

Theworld’spopulationislikelytopeakwithinthecurrentcentury.

?Theworld’spopulationisexpectedtocontinuegrowingoverthecomingfiftyorsixtyyears,reachingapeakofaround10.3billionpeopleinthemid-2080s,upfrom8.2billionin2024.

?Afterpeaking,theglobalpopulationisprojectedtostartdeclininggradually,fallingto10.2billionpeoplebytheendofthecentury.

?Theestimatedlikelihoodthattheworld’spopulationwillpeakwithinthecurrentcenturyisveryhigh(probabilityof80percent).

?ThisrepresentsamajorchangecomparedtoprojectionsproducedbytheUnitedNationsadecadeago,whentheestimatedprobabilitythatglobalpopulationgrowthwouldendduringthetwenty-firstcenturywasaround30percent.

?Thesizeoftheworld’spopulationin2100isnowexpectedtobe6percentsmaller–orabout

700millionpeoplefewer–thananticipatedadecadeago.

?Theearlieroccurrenceofapeakintheprojectedsizeoftheglobalpopulationisduetoseveralfactorsincludinglowerthan-expectedlevelsoffertilityinrecentyearsinsomeoftheworld’slargestcountries,particularlyChina.

Oneinfourpeoplegloballylivesinacountrywhosepopulationhasalreadypeakedinsize.

?In63countriesandareas,containing28percentoftheworld’spopulationin2024,thesizeof

theirpopulationpeakedbefore2024.ThisgroupincludesChina,Germany,JapanandtheRussianFederation.

?Thenumberofpeoplelivinginthoselocationsisprojectedtodeclineby14percentoverthenextthirtyyears,withAlbania,BosniaandHerzegovina,Lithuania,PuertoRicoandRepublicof

Moldovarecordingthelargestrelativereductionsby2054amongthecountriesandareasthathadatleast90,000inhabitantsin2024.

?In48countriesandareas,representing10percentoftheworld’spopulationin2024,populationsizeisprojectedtopeakbetween2025and2054.ThisgroupincludesBrazil,theIslamic

RepublicofIran,TürkiyeandVietNam.

?Thesizeofthepopulationintheselocationsisprojectedtoincreaseby5.3percentoverthenextthirtyyears,withBhutan,Colombia,CyprusandtheIslamicRepublicofIranamongthe

countriesrecordingthelargestrelativeincreasesby2054.

?Intheremaining126countriesandareas,thepopulationislikelytocontinuegrowingthrough

2054,potentiallyreachingapeaklaterinthecenturyorbeyond2100.Thisgroupincludesseveraloftheworld’smostpopulouscountries:India,Indonesia,Nigeria,PakistanandtheUnitedStatesofAmerica.

?Thenumberofpeoplelivingintheselocationsisprojectedtoincreaseby38percentthrough

2054.Innineofthesecountriesandareas,includingAngola,theCentralAfricanRepublic,theDemocraticRepublicoftheCongo,NigerandSomalia,populationgrowthislikelytobeveryrapid,withpopulationsdoublingbetween2024and2054.

?Thetrajectoryofpopulationchangeinthislastgroupofcountriesandareaswillhaveamajorinfluenceonthesizeandtimingofthepopulationpeakatthegloballevel.

2WorldPopulationProspects2024:SummaryofResults

UnitedNationsDepartmentofEconomicandSocialAffairs,PopulationDivision

Womentodaybearonechildfewer,onaverage,thantheydidaround1990.

?Currently,theglobalfertilityratestandsat2.25livebirthsperwoman,

1

downfrom3.31birthsin1990.

?Morethanhalfofallcountriesandareasgloballyhavefertilitybelowthereplacementlevelof2.1livebirthsperwoman.Thisisthelevelrequiredforapopulationtomaintainaconstantsizeinthelongrun(withoutmigration),witheachgenerationbeingfollowedbyanotherofroughlyequal

size.

?Currently,nearlyonefifthofallcountriesandareas,includingChina,Italy,theRepublicofKoreaandSpain,areexperiencingwhatissometimesreferredtoas“ultra-low”fertility,withfewerthan1.4livebirthsperwomanoveralifetime.

?Areturnto2.1birthsperwomanwithinthenext30yearsishighlyunlikely(0.1percent)inthe

24countrieswithultra-lowfertilityin2024thathavealreadypeaked.

?Bythelate2030s,halfofthewomenincountrieswithpopulationsthathavealreadypeakedwillbetoooldtohavechildrenbynaturalmeans.Becausetheshareofwomeninthereproductiveagerange(roughly,between15and49years)isprojectedtodeclinerapidlyinsuchcountries,the

impactonpopulationsizeofpoliciesaimedatraisingfertilitylevelsislikelytodiminishovertime.

Earlychildbearinghasharmfuleffectsonyoungmothersandtheirchildren.

?Today,averagefertilitylevelsareatorabove2.1livebirthsperwomanin45percentof

countriesandareasglobally.Overoneintencountriesandareas—mostlyinsub-SaharanAfrica—havefertilitylevelsoffourbirthsormoreperwoman.ThisgroupincludestheCentralAfricanRepublic,Chad,theDemocraticRepublicoftheCongo,NigerandSomalia.

?Fertilitylevelsabovereplacementareprojectedtocontributeoveronefifthofthepopulationincreasethrough2054inthecountriesandareaswherepopulationsizeislikelytocontinuegrowingthrough2054.

?In2024,4.7millionbabies,orabout3.5percentofthetotalworldwide,wereborntomothersunderage18.Ofthese,some340,000wereborntogirlsunderage15,withseriousadverse

consequencesforthehealthandwell-beingofboththeyoungmothersandtheirchildren.

?Investingintheeducationofyoungpeople,especiallygirls,andincreasingtheagesatmarriageandfirstchildbearingincountrieswherethesemilestoneeventstendtooccurearlywillhave

positiveeffectsonwomen’shealth,educationalattainmentandlabourforceparticipation.

?Increasingtheageatfirstchildbearingcontributestoslowingpopulationgrowth,reducingthe

scaleoftheinvestmentsandeffortrequiredtoachievesustainabledevelopmentwhileensuring

thatnooneisleftbehind.Iftherewerenobirthstogirlsunderage18,thepopulationofcountriesinsub-SaharanAfricain2054wouldbe3.8percentsmallerthanitwouldhavebeenotherwise.

FollowingtheCOVID-19pandemic,globallifeexpectancyisrisingonceagain.

?Globally,lifeexpectancyatbirthreached73.3yearsin2024,anincreaseof8.4yearssince1995.Furtherreductionsinmortalityareprojectedtoresultinanaveragelongevityofaround77.4

yearsgloballyin2054.

1Inthisreport,birthsrefertolivebirths.

WorldPopulationProspects2024:SummaryofResults3

UnitedNationsDepartmentofEconomicandSocialAffairs,PopulationDivision

?Since2022,lifeexpectancyhasreturnedtolevelsobservedbeforetheemergenceofthe

coronavirusdisease(COVID-19)innearlyallcountriesandareas.Attheheightofthepandemic

(during2020and2021),globallifeexpectancyatbirthfellto70.9years,downfrom72.6in2019.

?Bythelate2050s,morethanhalfofalldeathsgloballywilloccuratage80orhigher,comparedto17percentin1995.

?In2023,thenumberofdeathsamongchildrenunderage5fellbelow5millionforthefirsttimeinrecenthistory.However,95percentofsuchdeathstookplaceinthe126countrieswith

populationsthatarestillgrowingincludingtheDemocraticRepublicoftheCongo,India,NigeriaandPakistan.

?Dedicatingmoreresourcestocritical,low-costtreatmentsandinterventions,suchasensuringaccesstoantenatalandpostnatalcare,skilledbirthattendants,vaccinationsandnutritional

supplements,wouldsavemillionsoflivesworldwideoverthenextdecade.

?Increasinglevelsoflifeexpectancyatbirthareexpectedtocontributetopopulationgrowthortohelpmitigatepopulationdeclineinnearlyallcountriesoverthecomingdecades.Among

countrieswithpopulationsthathavealreadypeaked,thedropinmortalityisprojectedtobethemainfactor,alongsideimmigration,slowingthepopulationdeclinecausedbyfertilitybelowthereplacementlevel.

Themaindriverofglobalpopulationincreasethroughmid-centurywillbethemomentumcreatedbygrowthinthepast.

?Globally,thenumberofwomeninthereproductiveagerange(roughly,between15and49years)isprojectedtogrowthroughthelate2050s,whenitwilllikelypeakataround2.2billion,upfromnearly2.0billionin2024.Growthinthenumberofwomenofreproductiveageisconduciveto

continuingpopulationincreaseevenwhenthenumberofbirthsperwomanfallstothereplacementlevel.

?Themomentumofpastgrowththatisembeddedintheyouthfulagestructureoftoday’sglobalpopulationisprojectedtocontribute79percentofthetotalincreasethrough2054,oraround1.4billionpeople.

?Inapopulationthatisclosedtomigration,whenfertilityremainsbelowthereplacementlevelforanextendedperiod,thenumberofwomenofreproductiveagestartstodeclineassuccessive

cohortsbecomesmallerandsmaller.Incountrieswithpopulationsthathavealreadypeaked,thenumberofwomeninthereproductiveagerangeisprojectedtoshrinkby33percentbetween

2024and2054.

?Forsomepopulations,thenegativemomentumgeneratedbyahistoryofpopulationdeclinehasresultedinanagedistributionthatissignificantlyolderthaninthepast.Theolderage

distributionislikelytobethemaindriverofpopulationdeclinein18countriesandareasbetweennowand2054.Evenassumingasubstantialreboundinthefertilitylevel,thesepopulationsare

likelytocontinuedeclininginsizebecauseofthemomentumofpastdecline.

?Countrieswithpopulationsthatareprojectedtopeakby2054tendtohaveyoungeragestructures,whichareconducivetocontinuedgrowth.In25suchcountriesandareas,includingBrazil,the

IslamicRepublicofIranandVietNam,themomentumofpastgrowthisprojectedtobethemaindriverofpopulationgrowthinthenextdecades.

?Incountrieswithpopulationsthatareprojectedtocontinuegrowingthrough2054,therelativeyouthfulnessofthepopulationislikelytobethemaindriverofpopulationgrowththroughthat

4WorldPopulationProspects2024:SummaryofResults

UnitedNationsDepartmentofEconomicandSocialAffairs,PopulationDivision

datefor88ofthe126countriesinthegroup,furthermagnifyingtheimpactofcurrenthighlevelsoffertility.

Countrieswithyouthfulpopulationsanddecliningfertilityhavealimitedtimetobenefiteconomicallyfromanincreasingconcentrationofpopulationintheworkingages.

?Fornearlyallcountriesandareaswithpopulationsthatpeakedinsizeby2024,andforthree

quartersofthosewithpopulationsprojectedtopeakbetween2025and2054,thetime-boundwindowofopportunityforacceleratedeconomicgrowthassociatedwithayouthfulpopulationanddecliningfertilityhasalreadyclosed.

?Inaround100countriesandareas,however,theshareofpopulationattheworkingages(between

20and64years)willcontinuetoincreasemorerapidlythanthetotalpopulationbetweennowand2054,providingawindowofopportunity,knownasthedemographicdividend.

?Thedemographicdividendpresentsanopportunitytoacceleratesustainabledevelopment,whenasubstantialandsustaineddeclineinfertilityleadstoanincreasedconcentrationofthepopulationatworkingages.Toamplifyandprolongthisopportunity,however,soundeconomicandsocial

policiesareneeded.

?Incountrieswithyouthfulpopulations,substantialinvestmentsineducation,healthcareandinfrastructure,whilealsoimplementingreformstosupportthecreationofdecentjob

opportunitiesandmoretransparentandefficientgovernmentinstitutionsareneededtoensurethatthistime-boundopportunityisnotwasted.

By2080,personsaged65orolderwilloutnumberchildrenunder18.

?Bythelate2070s,thenumberofpersonsatages65yearsandhighergloballyisprojectedto

reach2.2billion,surpassingthenumberofchildren(underage18).Bythemid-2030s,itis

projectedthattherewillbe265millionpersonsaged80yearsorolder,morethanthenumberofinfants(1yearofageorless).

?Incountrieswherethesizeoftheirpopulationshasalreadypeakedorisprojectedtopeakinthecomingdecades,thecrossoverbetweenthenumberofchildrenandpersonsaged65orolderwilloccursooner.

?Evenincountrieswithpopulationsthatarestillgrowingrapidlyandhaverelativelyyouthfulpopulations,thenumberofpersonsaged65orolderisexpectedtoriseoverthenext30years.

?Countries,especiallythosewithpopulationsthathavealreadypeakedorwillpeakinthenext

decades,shouldconsiderleveragingtechnology,includingautomation,toimproveproductivityatallages.Theyshouldalsodesignmoreopportunitiesforlifelonglearningandretraining,supportmultigenerationalworkforcesandcreateopportunitiestoextendworkinglivesforthosewhocanandwanttocontinueworking.

?Forcountrieswithpopulationsthatarestillgrowingrapidly,inadditiontothepolicieslisted

above,foresightwillberequiredtoprepareforasocietywithanagestructurethatwillbeverydifferentfromtheonetheyhavetoday.Thisincludesbystrengtheningsystemsofhealthandlong-termcare,improvingthesustainabilityofsocialprotectionsystems,andinvestinginnewtechnologies.

?Becausewomenlivelongerthanmenonaverage,theyoutnumbermenatolderagesinalmostallpopulations.Policiesshouldaddresswomen’slongerlifeexpectancybyensuringequitableaccess

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UnitedNationsDepartmentofEconomicandSocialAffairs,PopulationDivision

toretirementbenefits,prioritizinggender-specifichealthcareneeds,andstrengtheningsocialsupportsystemstomitigatepotentialcaregivingburdens.

Forsomepopulations,immigrationwillbethemaindriveroffuturegrowth.

?In50countriesandareas,immigrationisprojectedtoattenuatethedeclineinpopulationsizecausedbysustainedlowlevelsoffertilityandanolderagestructure.

?ForcountriessuchasItaly,GermanyortheRussianFederationwherepopulationsizehasalreadypeaked,thatpeakwouldhaveoccurredsoonerintheabsenceofimmigration.

?Immigrationisprojectedtobethemaindriverofpopulationgrowthin52countriesandareasthrough2054andin62through2100.ThisgroupincludesAustralia,CanadaandtheUnitedStatesofAmerica.

?Emigrationgenerallydoesnothaveamajorimpactonthepopulationsizeofcountries,butin14countriesandareasalreadyexperiencingultra-lowfertility,emigrationislikelytocontributetoreducingpopulationsizebetweennowand2054inasizablemanner.

?Incountrieswherefertilitylevelsarealreadybelowthereplacementlevel,theemigrationof

peopleinthereproductiveagerangecanfurtherdepresspopulationgrowth.Insuchcountries,

creatingmoreopportunitiesfordecentworkandpromotingreturnmigrationmaybeapproachestoexploreandcouldbemoreeffectiveatslowingpopulationdeclineintheshortrunthanpoliciesaimedatraisingfertilitylevels.

Genderequalityandwomen’sempowermenthelptocounterrapidpopulationgrowthordecline.

?Discriminationandlegalbarriersoftenpreventwomenandadolescentsfrommakingautonomousdecisionsabouttheirsexualandreproductivehealth,includingbylimitingaccesstofamily

planning.Suchconditionstendtopreventorpostponethereductionoffertilityinpopulationsthataregrowingrapidly.

?Raisingtheminimumlegalageatmarriageandintegratingfamilyplanningandsafemotherhoodmeasuresintoprimaryhealthcarecanhelptoraisewomen’slevelsofeducation,facilitatetheireconomicparticipationandreducethelevelofearlychildbearing.

?Incountrieswherepopulationshavepeakedalreadyorarelikelytopeakinthenextthreedecades,gendergapsinthedivisionofdomesticworkwithinhouseholdsandinadequatechildandfamily

welfaresupportcanpreventordiscouragewomenandcouplesfromhavinglargerfamiliesevenwhentheywantthem.

?Adoptingpoliciesaimedatbalancingfamilyandworklife,includingbyprovidingpaidparentalleaveandflexibleworkingarrangements;supportingaffordable,high-qualitychildcareoptionsandhousing;providingcomprehensivecareforanage