電池技術(shù)：固態(tài)電池進(jìn)展?fàn)顟B(tài)-2025-03-新能源

pitchBooK

PitchBookData,Inc.

NizarTarhuniExecutiveVicePresidentofResearchandMarketIntelligence

PaulCondraGlobalHeadofPrivateMarketsResearch

JamesUlanDirectorofEmergingTechnologyResearch

EMERGINGTECHRESEARCH

BatteryTech:WhatIstheStateofSolid-State?

Arecentsurveyofsolid-statebatterydevelopments

InstitutionalResearchGroupAnalysis

PitchBookisaMorningstarcompanyprovidingthemostcomprehensive,most

accurate,andhard-to-finddataforprofessionalsdoingbusinessintheprivatemarkets.

JonathanGeurkink

SeniorResearchAnalyst,MobilityTechandSupplyChainTech

jonathan.geurkink@

pbinstitutionalresearch@

Keytakeaways

Publishing

DesignedbyChloeLadwig

?Solid-statebatteriesofferkeyadvantagesovertraditionallithium-ionbatteries,includinghigherenergydensity,increasedsafety,andfastercharging.

PublishedonMarch19,2025

?Challengespersistinscalingpromisingresearchdevelopmentsintomanufacturingandcommercialization.

Contents

Keytakeaways1

Benefitsandchallengesofsolid-state2batteries

Relentlesscostcompressionoflithium-ion3batteries

?Inrecentyears,investorsentimenthassouredduetounmetexpectations,depressingvaluationsofpublicSSBcompanies.

?In2024,companiescontinuedtoaggressivelypursueSSBtechnology,withsomepromisingdevelopments.

MarketpositioningforSSBs4

SurveyofSSBdevelopmentsoverthepast4year

Conclusion6

1

2

AP

tchBooK

PitchBookAnalystNote:BatteryTech:WhatIstheStateofSolid-State?

Benefitsandchallengesofsolid-statebatteries

Solid-statebatteries(SSBs)offernumerousadvantagesovertraditionallithium-ionbatteries,makingthemapromisingtechnologyforthefutureofenergystorage.

Oneoftheirkeybenefitsishigherenergydensity,allowingforlonger-lastingelectricvehicle(EV)rangesandmorecompactbatterydesigns.Theyalsosignificantly

improvesafetybyusingsolidelectrolytesinsteadofflammableliquidones,reducingtheriskofthermalrunawayandfires.Additionally,SSBsenabletheuseoflithium-

metalanodes,whichfurtherenhancecapacityandchargingspeed.Theirlonger

lifespanandbetterperformanceinextremetemperaturesmakeSSBsidealfora

widerangeofapplications,fromEVstoaerospacetoconsumerelectronics.Despitecurrentchallengesinmanufacturingandcost,advancementsinmaterialsand

productiontechniquesarerapidlypushingSSBstowardcommercialization,pavingthewayforamoreefficientandsustainableenergyfuture.

Compositionsoflithium-ionandsolid-statebatteries

Lithium-ionbatterySolid-statebattery

+++Positiveelectrode

Solidelectrolyte/separator

---Negativeelectrode

+++Positiveelectrode

Liquidelectrolyte

Separator

Liquidelectrolyte

---Negativeelectrode

Source:PitchBook

Despitetheirpromisingadvantages,SSBsfacesignificantchallengesthathinder

theirwidespreadcommercialization.Oneofthebiggestobstaclesismanufacturingcomplexityandcost,asproducingsolidelectrolytesandintegratingtheminto

existingbatteryproductionlinesrequirenewtechniquesandexpensivematerials.Materialstabilityandinterfaceissuesalsoposechallenges,assolidelectrolytes

oftenstruggletomaintainstrongcontactwithelectrodes,leadingtohighresistanceandreducedperformanceovertime.Additionally,manysolid-stateelectrolytes,

suchassulfide-basedones,aresensitivetomoisture,requiringspecialhandling

conditions.Scalabilityremainsahurdle,asmostSSBprototypesarestillinthe

developmentorearlytestingphases,withmassproductionexpectedlaterthis

decade.Lastly,whilelithium-metalanodespromisehighenergydensity,theycancausedendriteformation,whichmayleadtoshortcircuitsifnotproperlymanaged.OvercomingthesechallengestomakeSSBsaviablealternativetoconventional

lithium-ionbatterieswillrequirebreakthroughsinmaterialsscience,improvedmanufacturingprocesses,andstrongindustryinvestment.

3

AP

tchBooK

PitchBookAnalystNote:BatteryTech:WhatIstheStateofSolid-State?

Relativeattributesoflithium-ionandsolid-statebatteries

Fastcharging

Easeofmanufacture

4

3

2

1

0

Affordability5

Safety

Durability

Energydensity

Lithium-ionbatteriesSolid-statebatteries

Source:PitchBook

Note:Oneislowandfiveishighacrosstheserelativeattributesofbatterytechnology.

Relentlesscostcompressionoflithium-ionbatteries

Thecostoflithium-ionbatterieshascontinuedtodecline,thoughtherateofdeclinehaseasedinrecentyears.Lowerinputmaterialscostshavebeenasignificantfactor.In2022,lithiumcarbonatepricesaveraged$71,000permetrictonandpeakedat

morethan$90,000permetrictoninNovemberofthatyear.1,2Asmoresupply

wasplannedandadditionalproductioncameonline,togetherwithaneasingofEVdemand,pricestumbledto$14,000permetrictonin2024.Thiswasapproximatelytheaveragepriceofthefive-yearperiodthrough2021.Lithiumtypicallyaccountsfor10%to15%ofthecostofalithiumbatterycell.

Keycathodecomponentssuchasnickelandcobaltforhigher-performancenickelmanganesecobalt(NMC)batteriesexperiencedasimilarpricebubble.InFebruary2025,Congo,thelargestproducerofcobalt,enactedafour-monthsuspensionofexportsofthemetalinresponsetothesupplyglutandtumblingprices.Oneof

themostsignificantfactorsintheoveralldeclineinbatterypricesinrecentyearshasbeenthegrowingshareoflower-performancelithium-ironphosphate(LFP)batteries,whichdonotusetheaforementionedexpensivecathodematerials.

Althoughtheywereinitiallyintendedforscootersandsmallervehiclesand

havealowerrangeandweakerenergydensity,LFPbatteriesandtheirChinese

manufacturershavedisruptedthebatterymarketandholdanincreasingshareoflargervehiclesbecauseoftheirkeycostadvantage.LFPbatteriesareapproximately30%lessexpensivethanNMCbatteriesandhavetripledtheirmarketshareduringthepastfiveyearstonowaccountforthree-quartersofChineseEVsandnearlyhalftheglobalEVmarket.3

1:“AverageLithiumCarbonatePriceFrom2010to2024,”Statista,MadhumithaJaganmohan,February2025.

2:“Lithium,”TradingEconomics,n.d.,accessedMarch12,2025.

3:“TheBatteryIndustryHasEnteredaNewPhase,”InternationalEnergyAgency,TeoLombardo,etal.,March5,2025.

4

AP

tchBooK

PitchBookAnalystNote:BatteryTech:WhatIstheStateofSolid-State?

Thechallengehasbeen

movingSSBs’potential

outofthelab,scaling

production,andenteringthemarketplace.

MarketpositioningforSSBs

Withthelowerendoftheperformancerangesaturatedwithnumerouslow-costLFP

competitors,SSBsneedtopursueapplicationswhereperformancemeasuressuchasenergydensity,range,andsafetyoutweighhighercostconsiderations,atleastuntil

manufacturingcanscaletomatchtheefficiencyandyieldsofincumbentsintheLFP

segment.Thebestlithium-ionbatteriestopoutat300watt-hours/kilogram(Wh/

kg)inenergydensity.LFPbatteriestypicallyrangefrom90to160Wh/kginenergy

density.Assuch,theystruggletomeettheneedsofheavy-dutyandweight-sensitiveapplicationssuchaslong-rangetruckingorelectricflight.Alithium-ionEVbattery

forlong-rangetruckingcanweightensofthousandsofpounds,limitoverallpayload

capacityandtherebyprofitability,andstillfailtomatchtherangeofadieseltruck.

Becauseoftheirweight,battery-poweredaircraftarelimitedtorelativelyshorthops

andfacechallengesmeetingnewFederalAviationAdministrationregulationsfor

electricverticaltakeoffandlanding,whichrequire“fuel”reservesofatleast20minutesforvisualflightrulesandlongerforinstrumentflightrules.Withapotentialenergy

densityofatleast450to500Wh/kg,SSBsofferastepchangeinperformancetounlocknewapplicationsforelectricpower.

Thechallengehasbeenmovingthatpotentialoutofthelab,scalingproduction,and

enteringthemarketplace.High-profileSSBdeveloperssuchasQuantumScape,SES,

andSolidPowerhavegonepublicinrecentyearsbuthaveyettogeneratemeaningfulrevenue.AtSolidPower,research&development(R&D)expensesincreasedmore

than30%andoperatinglossesswelledto$105millionin2024,whileQuantumScape

postedoperatinglossesofmorethanhalfabillionthatyear.Inthesameperiod,R&D

forSESmorethandoubledandoperatinglossesrose40%.Thecompanies’respectivesharepricescurrentlysitnearall-timelows.SentimentforSSBsappearsmiredinunmetexpectations.Despitethisbackdropofdoomandgloom,thepastyearsawpromisingdevelopmentsintheSSBspace.

SurveyofSSBdevelopmentsoverthepastyear

Chinesebatterymanufacturershavecometodominatetheproductionandsupply

chainsofmoretraditionallithium-ionsectors,particularlyLFP.However,theyrecognizethedisruptivepotentialofSSBs.InJanuary2024,ChinesebatteryandEVmanufacturersjoinedagovernment-ledconsortiumofmorethan200participantsacrossindustries,universities,investmentfunds,andresearchinstitutestodrivethedevelopmentand

commercializationofSSBs.4TheconsortiumbroughttogetherrivalssuchasbatterygiantCATLandtopEVmanufacturerBYD.ThegroupplanstoharnessAIformaterialsR&Dandistargetingcommercializationandmassproductionby2030.

InApril,SSBstartupFactorialandSouthKoreanbatteryandmaterialsmakerLG

ChemannouncedapartnershiptoleverageFactorial’sbatterymaterialandprocess

technologyforSSBs.5LGChemisaleadingproviderofbatterycathodematerialsandhaskeysupplieragreementswithautomakerssuchasGM.ThepartnershipopensthedoortofurthertechnologylicensingandincreasedSSBmaterialsupplybetweenthetwofirmsasdevelopmentscales.

4:“CATL,BYD,OthersUniteinChinaforSolid-StateBatteryBreakthrough,”NikkeiAsia,ShunsukeTabeta,February12,2024.

5:“FactorialandLGChemSignMOUtoDevelopSolid-StateBatteries,”BusinessWire,Factorial,April23,2024.

5

AP

tchBooK

PitchBookAnalystNote:BatteryTech:WhatIstheStateofSolid-State?

InMay,Maryland-basedIONStorageSystemsannouncedthecommissionofSSB

pilotmanufacturingfacilitiesoutsideitsheadquartersinBeltsville.6Thestartup

planstoscalecapacityto500megawatt-hoursby2028.ION’sinvestorsinclude

ToyotaVenturesandFrenchmaterialsgiantSaint-Gobain.IONhasalsocollaboratedwiththeUniversityofMaryland,theUSDepartmentofEnergy,andtheUS

DepartmentofDefense.InJuly,IONcompleteda$15millionlate-stageVCdealthatputthecompany’spost-moneyvaluationatanestimated$170million.

WhileChinahasdominatedthe

manufacturingoftraditionallithium-ion

batteriesandkeybatterymaterialssupplysuchascobalt,nickel,andgraphiteanodes,SSBdevelopmentoutsideofthecountryhasthepotentialtobreakChina’sgriponthe

industryandthebroaderEVsupplychain

withlithium-metalanodesanduniquesolid-electrolytetechnologies.

AttheendofMay,ReutersreportedthatChinawasuppingtheantewithplansto

investmorethan$830millioninSSBdevelopmentandcommercialization.7TargetedparticipantsincludeCATL,NIO,WeLion,andBYD,amongothers.WhileChinahas

dominatedthemanufacturingoftraditionallithium-ionbatteriesandkeybattery

materialssupplysuchascobalt,nickel,andgraphiteanodes,SSBdevelopment

outsideofthecountryhasthepotentialtobreakChina’sgripontheindustryand

thebroaderEVsupplychainwithlithium-metalanodesanduniquesolid-electrolytetechnologies.Assuch,domesticdevelopmentrepresentsaburgeoningstrategic

goalforthecountry.

InJune,IonicMaterials,whichhadcapturedinvestorinterestwithitsnovelpolymerelectrolytes,ceasedoperations.8Thecompanyhadraisedmorethan$110million

sinceitsfoundingin2011.

InJuly,VolkswagenGroup’sbatterycompanyPowerCoannouncedanew

agreementwithexistingpartnerQuantumScapetolicensethelatter’stechnologyplatformtomass-producebatterycells.9VolkswagenGrouphasworkedwith

QuantumScapesince2012andhasbeenaninvestorinthecompanysince2014.ItisQuantumScape’slargestshareholder.

InSeptember,Mercedes-BenzandFactorialannouncedapartnershiptodevelopanSSB.Thebatteryisexpectedtohaveanenergydensityof450Wh/kg,enablingan80%increaseintheaverageEVdrivingrange.10Mercedes-Benzwasaninvestorin Factorial’s$200millionlate-stageVCroundin2022.

AlsoinSeptember,AddenEnergyraised$15millioninaSeriesAroundtodevelop

SSBtechnologyspunoutofHarvardUniversity.Theresearchersdevelopedabatterythatcanbechargedin10minutesandsustainthousandsofchargecycles.11

InNovember,CATLannounceditwasdialingupitsdevelopmentofSSBswiththe

expansionofitsR&Dteamtomorethan1,000people.12Thecompanyhasreportedlyachievedanenergydensityof500Wh/kgwithitssamplesandhasenteredtrial

6:“IONStorageSystemsCommissionsOneoftheCountry’sLargestSolid-StateBatteryManufacturingFacilities,”PRNewswire,IONStorageSystems,

May6,2024.

7:“ChinatoInvestMoreThan$830MillioninSolid-StateBatteryResearch-Source,”Reuters,ZhangYan,etal.,May29,2024.

8:“IonicMaterials,aTechStartupSettoRevolutionizeLithiumBatteriesforEVs,ShutsDownOperations,”TechS,NickieLouise,

June6,2024.

9:“PowerCoandQuantumScapeAnnounceLandmarkAgreementtoIndustrializeSolid-StateBatteries,”VolkswagenGroup,AndreasGro?andDr.

StefanErnst,July11,2024.

10:“MercedesTeamsUpWithFactorialtoDevelopSolid-StateBatteries,”Reuters,NickCarey,September10,2024.

11:“HarvardDevelopsaSolidStateBatteryThatChargesinMinutes[Update],”Electrek,MichelleLewis,October23,2024.

12:“CATLUpsBetonAll-Solid-StateBatteries,BeginsSampleValidation,ReportSays,”CnEVPost,PhateZhang,November6,2024.

6

AP

tchBooK

PitchBookAnalystNote:BatteryTech:WhatIstheStateofSolid-State?

production.CATLchairRobinZengassertedthatthecompany’sSSBresearchis“secondtonone.”13ThecompanyhasbeeninvestinginSSBtechnologyfornearlyadecade.14

AlsoinNovember,HondaMotorannouncedademonstrationproductionlinefor

SSBsinTochigiPrefecture,Japan.15ProductionwasslatedtostartinJanuary2025.HondaaimstointroduceSSBstothemarketinthelatterhalfofthedecade.DespitepioneeringsomeoftheearliestEVmodelsdecadesago—HondalaunchedtheEV

Plusin1997—HondaandotherJapaneseautomakers,suchasToyota,havebeen

slowtojumpontheEVbandwagoninrecentyears.ToyotahasheldthatEVsintheircurrentstatedonotmeettheneedsofthecompany’sdiversearrayofcustomers

andthatthecompanycanhaveabiggerimpactontheclimatewithitslineofhybridcars.Inmanyways,itappearsthatToyotaislookingtoSSBtechnologytoleapfrogthecurrentgenerationofEVs.Thecompanyhasover1,300patentsrelatedtoSSBs,morethananyotherautomaker.16Inlate2023,thecompanyannouncedanSSB

manufacturingagreementwithJapanesematerialsfirmIdemitsuKosan,targetingacommercialreleasein2027.

InFebruary2025,Mercedes-BenzandpartnerFactorialannouncedtheyhadbegunroadtestsofthelatter’slithium-metalSSBtechnologyinaMercedesEQS.17

Conclusion

SSBshavebeendescribedastheHolyGrailofbatterytechnologywiththepotentialtounlockahostofnewmobilityapplications.ThetechnologyalsohasthecapacitytodisruptChina’sgrowingdominanceinbatterytechnology,materialssupply

chains,andthebroaderEVindustry.Atthesametime,ChinesebatteryandEV

makersareinvestingheavilyinthedevelopmentofthetechnology,seekingto

maintaintheirmarketpositioninthefuture.Japaneseautomakers,whichonceledinEVdevelopment,areinvestinginSSBsasameanstoleapfrogChinesecompetitorsandTeslaintheEVspace.InvestorsentimenttowardpublicSSBtechnology

companiesremainsmiredasrevenuegenerationisstillelusive.Meanwhile,privatestartupssuchasFactorialaremakingheadwaywithkeyautomotivepartners.

13:“CATLUpsBetonAll-Solid-StateBatteries,BeginsSampleValidation,ReportSays,”CnEVPost,PhateZhang,November6,2024.

14:“Top10:Solid-StateBatteryDevelopers,”EVMagazine,StellaNolan,January28,2025.

15:“HondaUnveilsDemonstrationProductionLineforAll-Solid-StateBatteriesLocatedinSakuraCity,TochigiPrefecture,Japan,”HondaMotor,

November21,2024.

16:“ToyotaSolidStateBatteryPatents:Insights&Stats,”GreyB,September20,2024.

17:“PassengerCarandFormula1EngineersTeamUpasSolid-StateBatteryRoadTestsBegin,”Mercedes-BenzMedia,February24,2025.

7

AP

tchBooK

PitchBookAnalystNote:BatteryTech:WhatIstheStateofSolid-State?

SelectSSBcompanies

Company

Employees

M&A

probability

IPO

probability

Success

probability

Lastfinancingdate

Last

financing

value($M)

Ownershipstatus

Company

financingstatus

Year

founded

QuantumScape

800

N/A

N/A

N/A

August2,2023

$300.0

Publiclyheld

Formerly

VC-backed

2010

SES

300

N/A

N/A

N/A

February3,2022

$275.0

Publiclyheld

Form