生產(chǎn)運(yùn)作管理(第二版)教材練習(xí)題答案

1、高等學(xué)校管理類專業(yè)主要課程教材生產(chǎn)與運(yùn)作管理（第二版）練習(xí)題解答陳榮秋馬士華編著第三章1.解：依題意計(jì)算，結(jié)果如解表3所示:解表3-1模型A模型B實(shí)際銷竹杲A預(yù)測(cè)偏差絕對(duì)偏差A(yù)TI預(yù)測(cè)Ft偏差A(yù)-坊絕對(duì)偏差A(yù)TI566610-4444580-1411620630-10106002020584610-262658044652630222263022227486401081087024646703650535368023236706551515680-1010625655-3030680-5555572630-5858600-2828618630-121260018181837826240ElA-

2、l(a)模型A：MAD=旦=378 4-10=37.8nAt-Et模熨 B： MAD= =2404-10=24.0n(b)模熨 A： RSFE=工(人一斥)=18/i模型 E ： RSFE-工（人- ） 26r=l(c) MAD能夠衡彊預(yù)測(cè)值與實(shí)際值的偏差,但是不能衡磺預(yù)測(cè)值的無偏性：RSFE町以衡就無偏 性，但是不能衡啟預(yù)測(cè)值與實(shí)際值的偏差。通常選擇平均絕對(duì)誤差MAD小的模型進(jìn)行預(yù)測(cè), 按!相這個(gè)原則應(yīng)選擇模型B。2. 解：(a) S&jTOO, a=0.2, S&Sf；。依據(jù)題意計(jì)算得:解表3-2月份實(shí)際銷售額&ax 月實(shí)際銷 售額上月預(yù)測(cè) 銷售額 SFt-i(1-a )X上月預(yù) 測(cè)銷售額

3、本月平滑 預(yù)測(cè)銷售額SFt偏差A(yù).-SF,絕對(duì)偏差A(yù)-l110410041210420.810080100.83.23.2345678910111210092105959510410410711010920.82018.421191920.820.821.422100.8101.44101.1599.32100.4699.3798.5099.60100.48101.7880.6481.1580.9279.4680.3779.5078.879.6880.3881.42101.44101.1599.32100.4699.3798.5099.60100.48101.78103.42-1.44-9.1

4、55.68-5.46-4.375.54.46.528.225.581.449.155.685.464.375.54.46.528.225.5813X22.6863.52(b丿 S/Aq 二 100,ot=0. 4,同樣計(jì)算得:解表3-3月份實(shí)際銷售額Aax上 月實(shí)際銷 害額上月預(yù)測(cè) 銷售額SFm(1-a )XJ.R 測(cè)銷答額本月平滑 預(yù)測(cè)銷售額SFt偏差人-SF,絕對(duì)偏差A(yù)-l110410044210441.610060101.62.42.4310041.6101.660.96102.56-2.562.5649240102.5661.54101.54-9.549.54510536.8101.5

5、460.9297.727.287.286954297.7258.63100.63-5.635.6379538100.6360.3898.38-3.383.3881043898.3859.0397.036.976.97910441.697.0358.2299.824.184.181010741.699.8259.90101.505.55.51111042.8101.5060.90103.706.36.31210944103.7062.22102.226.786.7813s22.364 52(C)在(a)情況下(a=02)：NIAD= =63.524-12= 5.29IInRSFE=X (& -

6、SFt) =22.68 -T 12=1.89在(b)情況下(a=0.4)：刃A-s川MAD-64.524-12=5.38nRSFA 工（A-Sf；）223mi2=l863. 解：解衣34季度季度序號(hào)t銷 ttfflAt4個(gè)季度銷仔總彊4個(gè)季度移動(dòng)平均季度中點(diǎn)春13.05夏21.45秋31.96冬44.5411.002.752.555.1113.063.2653.5夏63.4215.033.75754.5秋73.8916.964.245.5冬86.6219.044.766.597.0320.965.247.5夏105.5123.055.76258.5秋115.9525.116.27759.5冬1

7、28.5227.016.752510.5139.1429.127.2811.5夏147.5531.167.7912.5秋157.8833.098.272513.5冬1610.5635.138.782514.5用一元線性回歸法進(jìn)行預(yù)測(cè):Xy7 JT2.52.756.256.8753.53.26512.2511.42754.53.757520.2516.908755.54.2430.2523.326.54.7642.2530.947.55.2456.2539.38.55.762572.2548.981259.56.277590.2559.6362510.56.7525110.2570.901251

8、1.57.28132.2583.7212.57.79156.2597.37513.58.2725182.25111.6787514.58.7825210.25127.34625110.5工y = 74.93工F = 1121.25工小=728.41b _ 工。一工 工 V _Bx 728.41-110.5x 74.9313x1121.25-110.52=0.503工74.93_ 0.503x110.5-1.49 n13所以 7；=0.503t+1.49估算季節(jié)系數(shù),半計(jì)算如解表空下所示:(A+A+A.+A1)ST(春)=h X 人 T=41.530n.276+1.168n.B8=L278解表3

9、-6t12345678910111213141516Tt1.9932.4962.9993.5024.0054.5085.0115.5146.0176.527.0237.5268.0298.5329.0359.538A,3.051.451.964.545.113.423.896.627.035.515.958.529.147.557.8810.561.5300.5810.6541.2961.2760.7590.7761.2011.1680.8450.8471.1321.1380.8850.8721.1071,5,913都是春節(jié)，求出他它們的平均值作為季節(jié)系數(shù):同理可得：ST（夏）=0.768S7

10、 秋）=0787 ST（冬）=1.184預(yù)測(cè):春季:(0.503X17+1.49)夏季:(0.503X18 + 1.49)秋季:(0.503X19+1.49)冬季：(0.503X20+1.49)X 1.278 = 12.832 (公斤)X 0.768 = 8.098 (公斤)X 0.787=8.694 (公斤)X 1.184 = 13.675 (公斤)4 解：(a)SA, = aAt + (-a)Ft70(SA-SAj + (l-0)：= 5A + 7I計(jì)算結(jié)果如解表3-7所示:解表3-7tAa(1-0)爲(wèi)SA0(sa-sajT,巧13811.425.903537.301.151.002.02

11、.153739.4524112.327.6239.921.311.082.3842.3033911.729.6141.310.701.191.8943.2044312.930.2443.140.920.951.8745.0154413.231.5044.700.780.931.7146.41(2) SA + (p)7；所以 f5+1 =SA5 + 1x7； =44.70+1.71 =46.41F”2 = SA5 + 2x7； =44.704-2X1.71=48.12 = + 3x7； =44.70+3 X 1.71=49.835解：(1)根據(jù)題意計(jì)算結(jié)果如解表所示：解表38年季度序號(hào)t礙求ll

12、 At4個(gè)季度需求總量4個(gè)季度移動(dòng)平均季度中點(diǎn)第一年1234262092140218677246819096922742.252.5第二年5253909015022537.53.561906487812219534.571817387308218275.58238668649321623.256.5(2)求線性冋歸方程XyJ Vxy2.522742.256.2556855.6253.522537.512.2578881.254.52195320.2598788.55.52182730.25120048.56.521623.2542.25140551.13工X= 22.5工y = 110683工

13、宀111.25工 yy = 495125.01= -294.855x495125.01-22.5x1106835x111.25-22.5打_ 110683+29485x225= 23463.425所以 7； 294.85t+23463.425(3)計(jì)算季節(jié)系數(shù)4的計(jì)算結(jié)呆如解衷39所示Ttt1234567842620921402186772468125390190641817323866I23168.5822873.7322578.8822284.0321989.1821694.3321399.4821104.63AM1.1310.9360.8271.1081.1550.8790.8491.1

14、31解表3-9S/(l) =A AS/(2)=(亠+ 負(fù))/2 = 0.908令+卽2=皿S/(4) = (-i+-?-)/2 =1.1207； Ts(4)預(yù)測(cè)需求 第三年1季度 第三年2季度(-294.85X9+23463.425) X 1.143 = 23785.573(-294.85 X 10+ 23463.425)X 0.908 = 18627,552第三年3季度笫三年4季度(-294.85 X11+ 23463.425)(-294.85 X 12+23463.425 )X 0.838 = 16944.423X 1.120 = 22316.252第五章1解：3個(gè)地點(diǎn)的權(quán)眞分值計(jì)算結(jié)果如

15、解表5-1所示:解表5-1備選廠址ABC交通運(yùn)輸條件22.5023.7520.00土地費(fèi)用8.007.509.50生活條件22.5020.0020.00人1素質(zhì)18.0017.0016.00科技文化條件18.0016.0016.00總權(quán)車89.0084.2581.50優(yōu)先次序?yàn)?A, B, Co所以A廠址最可取。2.解：站址1：年修理收入：2500X260= 65C000減：站址及建筑費(fèi)：(135000+125000) X19% -4900年運(yùn)行費(fèi)：50000可變成本：650000X60%=390000利潤：160600站址2：年修理收入：3100X260= 806000減：站址及建筑費(fèi)：(1

16、64000+125000) X19% =54910年運(yùn)行費(fèi)：50000可變成本：806000X60%=483600利潤：217490因此選地址2比較好。3.解：計(jì)算結(jié)果如解表52所示:解衣5-2廠址A廠址B廠址C年收入9,000,0007,500,0009,750,000年變動(dòng)成本5,400,0005,000,0006,337,500年固定成本1,500,0003,000,0004,000,000利潤2,100,000-500,000-587,500廠址A股優(yōu)。4. 解：假設(shè)選A城為配送中心，運(yùn)輸問題雖優(yōu)解如解農(nóng)5-3所示:解表5-3工廠從工廠到配送中心的單位運(yùn)費(fèi)匸廠生產(chǎn)能力分配中心P分配中心

17、QA城分配中心虛擬配送中心AB01710013700609096008100 0200 0800900C80050nlo700800需求900700600選A城為配送中心時(shí)，總的運(yùn)輸費(fèi)用為：100X13 + 800X5 + 700X6-1-600X8 + 100X0 + 200X0=14300(76)假設(shè)選W城為配送中心，運(yùn)輸問題最優(yōu)解如解表5/所示: 解表54工廠從工廠到配送中心的單位運(yùn)費(fèi)工廠生產(chǎn)能力分配中心P分配中心QW城分配中心虛擬配送中心A0177006010100 0800B10013096007200 0900C8005011070 0800需求900700600300選W城為配送

18、中心時(shí)，總的運(yùn)輸費(fèi)用為：100X13 + 800X5 + 700X6+600X7+100X0 + 200X0= 13700（尤丿 內(nèi)為選W城為配送屮心的總成本最低，所以最佳分配屮心為W地。5.解：假設(shè)選X城建廠，運(yùn)輸問題最優(yōu)解如解表55所示： 解表55原料供應(yīng)地從原料供應(yīng)地到工廠地單位運(yùn)費(fèi)原料供應(yīng)量工廠F1工廠F2工廠X虎擬地Ml6001803602740001000M202750024500240 01000M3033027502795001000需求6005005501350選定工廠x的情況卜，總的運(yùn)輸費(fèi)用為：600X18 + 500X24 + 500X24 + 50X27 +0X400+0X950=36150 （元）假設(shè)丁廠Y選定的情況卜，運(yùn)輸問題最優(yōu)解如解表56所示：解表5-6原料供應(yīng)地從原料供應(yīng)地到工廠地單位運(yùn)費(fèi)原料供應(yīng)量工廠F1工廠F2工廠X虛擬地Ml6001803603040001000M2027500240 2150001000M30330275502145001000需求6005005501350選定工廠Y的情況卜，總的運(yùn)輸費(fèi)用為：600X18