宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)第1章 緒論

1、copyright 2007 business school of xiangtan university macroeconomics lecture by zhuoyue1第1章緒緒 論論copyright 2007 business school of xiangtan university macroeconomics lecture by zhuoyue21.1 宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)的研究對(duì)象宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)的研究對(duì)象t問(wèn)題：什么是宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)？問(wèn)題：什么是宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)？ macroeconomicsmacroeconomics 宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)是以整個(gè)國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)作宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)是以整個(gè)國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)作為研究對(duì)象

2、為研究對(duì)象, ,具體講就是研究宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)具體講就是研究宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)波動(dòng)和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)。波動(dòng)和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)。copyright 2007 business school of xiangtan university macroeconomics lecture by zhuoyue3t問(wèn)題：宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)研究什么呢？問(wèn)題：宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)研究什么呢？t一國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)是由什么決定的？國(guó)與國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)差異的原因何在？經(jīng)濟(jì)決策對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的影響？（圖1-1）t是什么導(dǎo)致一國(guó)宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)的周期性波動(dòng)？t是什么導(dǎo)致了失業(yè)？（失業(yè)的衡量、分類、危害等）t什么是通貨膨脹？通貨膨脹的代價(jià)？輕微的通貨膨脹對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)有好處嗎？t經(jīng)濟(jì)全球化對(duì)一國(guó)宏觀經(jīng)

3、濟(jì)的影響？t宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)政策如何才能改善一國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)運(yùn)行情況？copyright 2007 business school of xiangtan university macroeconomics lecture by zhuoyue4gdp per capital for four countries, 1820-1998圖1-1copyright 2007 business school of xiangtan university macroeconomics lecture by zhuoyue5t研究目標(biāo)：研究目標(biāo)：短期內(nèi)資源的如何充分利用和長(zhǎng)期內(nèi)如何通過(guò)資源的增加等途徑來(lái)保證國(guó)民收入的

4、持續(xù)增長(zhǎng)。t根據(jù)其研究對(duì)象，宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)包括國(guó)民國(guó)民收入決定理論、就業(yè)理論、經(jīng)濟(jì)周期理收入決定理論、就業(yè)理論、經(jīng)濟(jì)周期理論、通貨膨脹理論、財(cái)政與金融理論、論、通貨膨脹理論、財(cái)政與金融理論、經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)理論等。經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)理論等。copyright 2007 business school of xiangtan university macroeconomics lecture by zhuoyue6黃油黃油大炮大炮copyright 2007 business school of xiangtan university macroeconomics lecture by zhuoyue71.2 宏觀經(jīng)

5、濟(jì)學(xué)的研究方法宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)的研究方法t總量分析方法：總量分析方法：研究經(jīng)濟(jì)總量之間的關(guān)系。 宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)研究首先假定制度是已知的、既定的，制度本身或制度變動(dòng)的原因和后果不是宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)分析范圍以內(nèi)的問(wèn)題； 宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)在進(jìn)行總量分析時(shí)，通常也把個(gè)量當(dāng)作已知的、既定的前提。 copyright 2007 business school of xiangtan university macroeconomics lecture by zhuoyue8t靜態(tài)分析靜態(tài)分析：研究宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)的均衡狀態(tài)以及達(dá)到均衡所需的條件；t比較靜態(tài)分析和動(dòng)態(tài)分析比較靜態(tài)分析和動(dòng)態(tài)分析t實(shí)證分析和規(guī)范分析：實(shí)證分析和規(guī)范分析：當(dāng)有關(guān)經(jīng)

6、濟(jì)總量發(fā)生變動(dòng)時(shí)，實(shí)證方法分析這些總量的變動(dòng)將會(huì)引起什么反應(yīng)，造成什么樣的后果；規(guī)范方法分析這些總量變動(dòng)所引起的的反應(yīng)和造成的后果是否符合某種倫理標(biāo)準(zhǔn)及如何達(dá)到預(yù)定的倫理標(biāo)準(zhǔn)。copyright 2007 business school of xiangtan university macroeconomics lecture by zhuoyue9t流量分析流量分析：是對(duì)一定時(shí)期內(nèi)有關(guān)經(jīng)濟(jì)總量的變動(dòng)以及對(duì)其他有關(guān)經(jīng)濟(jì)總量的影響進(jìn)行分析。一定時(shí)期內(nèi)的總收入、總投資、總消費(fèi)、總儲(chǔ)蓄的變動(dòng)及其造成的影響，是凱恩斯宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)考察的重點(diǎn)。t存量分析存量分析：是對(duì)一時(shí)點(diǎn)上已有的經(jīng)濟(jì)總量的數(shù)值以及對(duì)其他有

7、關(guān)經(jīng)濟(jì)總量的影響進(jìn)行分析。如一定時(shí)點(diǎn)上的資本存量和消費(fèi)品存量，它們對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)周期波動(dòng)和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)同樣起著重要作用。copyright 2007 business school of xiangtan university macroeconomics lecture by zhuoyue10t需求分析和供給分析需求分析和供給分析t從分析方法看，宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)的發(fā)展趨勢(shì)是越來(lái)越“動(dòng)態(tài)化”、“長(zhǎng)期化”；同時(shí)，它不僅日益重視供給分析和存量分析，而規(guī)范分析的色彩也正在加強(qiáng)。copyright 2007 business school of xiangtan university macroeconomics l

8、ecture by zhuoyue111.3 產(chǎn)生和發(fā)展產(chǎn)生和發(fā)展t背景背景 現(xiàn)實(shí)背景：1929-1933的大危機(jī) 理論背景t凱恩斯革命：凱恩斯革命：就業(yè)、利息和貨幣通論，1936年出版，被認(rèn)為是第一部系統(tǒng)地運(yùn)用了總量分析方法來(lái)研究整個(gè)國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)的宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)著作。copyright 2007 business school of xiangtan university macroeconomics lecture by zhuoyue12t古典宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)階段（17世紀(jì)中期19世紀(jì)中期）copyright 2007 business school of xiangtan university

9、macroeconomics lecture by zhuoyue13copyright 2007 business school of xiangtan university macroeconomics lecture by zhuoyue141.4 三類模型三類模型t宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)可歸納為三類模型t根據(jù)模型所適用時(shí)間的長(zhǎng)度分為超長(zhǎng)期長(zhǎng)期短期t下面對(duì)每一類模型進(jìn)行具體考察copyright 2007 business school of xiangtan university macroeconomics lecture by zhuoyue15超長(zhǎng)期經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)超長(zhǎng)期經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)t增長(zhǎng)理論描述的是超

10、長(zhǎng)期的經(jīng)濟(jì)行為t時(shí)間跨度一般為幾十年以上 (例如20年或更多)t關(guān)注的是重要宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)指標(biāo)的平均增長(zhǎng)t像失業(yè)、投資和產(chǎn)出等重要宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)變量的短期波動(dòng)被忽視 copyright 2007 business school of xiangtan university macroeconomics lecture by zhuoyue16per capita gnp, 1889-1998copyright 2007 business school of xiangtan university macroeconomics lecture by zhuoyue17t所有的生產(chǎn)要素都假設(shè)處于充分就業(yè)狀態(tài)t

11、從長(zhǎng)期而言，總產(chǎn)出只受供給約束t也就是，長(zhǎng)期產(chǎn)出決定于一國(guó)的生產(chǎn)能力t經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)因此是生產(chǎn)能力擴(kuò)張的函數(shù)copyright 2007 business school of xiangtan university macroeconomics lecture by zhuoyue18t不同經(jīng)濟(jì)體平均增長(zhǎng)率的差異是重要的t第3章和第4章考察經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的原因與國(guó)家間增長(zhǎng)率的差異t經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的主要原因有新技術(shù)的發(fā)展物質(zhì)與人力資本的積累良好的基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施高國(guó)內(nèi)儲(chǔ)蓄率 copyright 2007 business school of xiangtan university macroeconomics lectu

12、re by zhuoyue19長(zhǎng)期生產(chǎn)能力不變的經(jīng)濟(jì)長(zhǎng)期生產(chǎn)能力不變的經(jīng)濟(jì)t決定通貨膨脹率的因素是什么？t長(zhǎng)期中，所有要素被假設(shè)處于充分就業(yè)狀態(tài)，因而產(chǎn)出只取決于經(jīng)濟(jì)的生產(chǎn)能力t在長(zhǎng)期，生產(chǎn)能力假定是一常數(shù)t總供給-總需求模型解釋了一般物價(jià)水平的波動(dòng)copyright 2007 business school of xiangtan university macroeconomics lecture by zhuoyue20t在長(zhǎng)期中，總供給曲線是垂直的py0yasprice levelcopyright 2007 business school of xiangtan university

13、macroeconomics lecture by zhuoyue21t長(zhǎng)期中的總需求ad與總供給 aspy0yadprice levelasp0copyright 2007 business school of xiangtan university macroeconomics lecture by zhuoyue22t長(zhǎng)期中，產(chǎn)量只取決于總供給，而價(jià)格則決定于總供給與總需求兩者t高通貨膨脹率總是由總需求的變化引起的t高通貨膨脹率的唯一原因是濫發(fā)貨幣copyright 2007 business school of xiangtan university macroeconomics le

14、cture by zhuoyue23短期的產(chǎn)出波動(dòng)短期的產(chǎn)出波動(dòng)t短期關(guān)注的是實(shí)際產(chǎn)出、失業(yè)等經(jīng)濟(jì)變量的波動(dòng)t短期通常假設(shè)生產(chǎn)要素大量閑置，產(chǎn)出具有充分彈性，因此短期總供給曲線是水平的t需求是實(shí)際產(chǎn)出波動(dòng)的主要決定因素copyright 2007 business school of xiangtan university macroeconomics lecture by zhuoyue24ast短期總供給與總需求t在短期中，產(chǎn)量只取決于總需求，而價(jià)格不受產(chǎn)量水平的影響py0yadprice levelp0copyright 2007 business school of xiangtan

15、university macroeconomics lecture by zhuoyue25中期中期t我們?nèi)绾蚊枋龆唐谂c長(zhǎng)期之間的轉(zhuǎn)變呢？t當(dāng)高漲的總需求推動(dòng)產(chǎn)量高過(guò)超長(zhǎng)期模型可持續(xù)的水平時(shí)，廠商開(kāi)始提高價(jià)格，總供給曲線則開(kāi)始向上移動(dòng)t中期，as曲線介于水平與垂直之間t“總供給曲線有多陡峭”的問(wèn)題是宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)中主要爭(zhēng)論的問(wèn)題copyright 2007 business school of xiangtan university macroeconomics lecture by zhuoyue26pyp0p1ad0ad1copyright 2007 business school of xi

16、angtan university macroeconomics lecture by zhuoyue27py0yadprice levelasp0copyright 2007 business school of xiangtan university macroeconomics lecture by zhuoyue28pykeynes regionclassic regionmedium regioncopyright 2007 business school of xiangtan university macroeconomics lecture by zhuoyue291.5 幾個(gè)

17、基本概念幾個(gè)基本概念 t增長(zhǎng)理論，as-ad模型為未來(lái)的分析提供了一個(gè)非常重要的框架增長(zhǎng)和gdp經(jīng)濟(jì)周期t我們下面考察這些基本概念copyright 2007 business school of xiangtan university macroeconomics lecture by zhuoyue30增長(zhǎng)與增長(zhǎng)與gdpcopyright 2007 business school of xiangtan university macroeconomics lecture by zhuoyue31growth and gdpt經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率是國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值的增長(zhǎng)率t表1.1比較了不同國(guó)家的人均收入

18、的增長(zhǎng)率t增長(zhǎng)率差異非常大，加納只有0.3% ，日本則達(dá)到3.2%t差異的原因是什么？什么政策可提高一國(guó)長(zhǎng)期平均增長(zhǎng)率？copyright 2007 business school of xiangtan university macroeconomics lecture by zhuoyue32經(jīng)濟(jì)周期與經(jīng)濟(jì)周期與 gdpt經(jīng)濟(jì)周期描述的是一國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)圍繞增長(zhǎng)趨勢(shì)線進(jìn)行有規(guī)律的擴(kuò)張（復(fù)蘇）與收縮（衰退）的現(xiàn)象tgdp變化的趨勢(shì)線是當(dāng)生產(chǎn)要素被充分利用時(shí)，gdp所經(jīng)歷的變化路線copyright 2007 business school of xiangtan university macroeconomics lecture by zhuoyue33b