國(guó)際金融(托馬斯普格爾)復(fù)習(xí)資料整理

1、題型：（范圍28章）1填空：5題10分2選擇：10題20分3判斷：10題10分4簡(jiǎn)答：2題10分5計(jì)算：4題40分6論述：1題10分第二章 Payments among Nations 國(guó)際收支1.Accounting principles 記賬原則A credit item (+)positive items: a country must be paid; payment by a foreigner into the country.包括：Exports of goodsPurchases by foreigners in this countryForeigners investing

2、 in the countrys bondsA debit item (-)negative items： a country must pay; payment by the country to a foreigner.包括：Imports of goodsPurchases by firms in this country from foreign countriesPurchases by investors in this country from foreigners2Balance of Payments Statement國(guó)際收支平衡u Current account（經(jīng)常賬戶

3、）:簡(jiǎn)CA（商品、服務(wù)的進(jìn)出口、對(duì)外國(guó)金融資產(chǎn)的支付和收益、單方面轉(zhuǎn)移）u Financial account（金融賬戶）:簡(jiǎn)FA (直接投資、國(guó)際證券投資)u Official international reserves（官方國(guó)際儲(chǔ)備）:簡(jiǎn)OR（黃金、外匯資產(chǎn)、在國(guó)際貨幣基金的特別提款權(quán)）u 三個(gè)國(guó)際收支部分，根據(jù)Each transaction has two item, one positive and one negative, of equal value. double-entry bookkeeping復(fù)式記賬法有：positive items + negative items

4、 = 0positive balance: surplusnegative balance: deficit（1） Current account balance經(jīng)常賬戶差額經(jīng)常賬戶差額(CA) = 商品貿(mào)易差額 + 勞務(wù)差額加上收入凈額 + 無償轉(zhuǎn)移收支凈額之和。盈余（）：一國(guó)在與外國(guó)交易中增加了資產(chǎn)或減少了負(fù)債。赤字（）：一國(guó)在與外國(guó)交易中減少了資產(chǎn)或增加了負(fù)債。CA = If （Net foreign investment (If)：凈國(guó)外投資）CA = S Id （National saving (S)：國(guó)際儲(chǔ)備 ，domestic investment (Id)：國(guó)內(nèi)投資.） S =

5、 Id + If （國(guó)際儲(chǔ)備=國(guó)內(nèi)投資+凈國(guó)外投資）Y = C + Id + G +(X M) （商品和勞務(wù)的生產(chǎn)= 消費(fèi)+投資政府支出貿(mào)易差額）E = C + Id + G （對(duì)商品和勞務(wù)總支出=消費(fèi)+投資政府支出）據(jù)Y = E +(X M), CA = (X M) 可以推導(dǎo)出CA = Y ESurplus盈余Deficit赤字Positive net foreign investment lender) 貸款者Net foreign borrower借款者Saving more than investing domestically 儲(chǔ)蓄超過國(guó)內(nèi)投資Domestic savings les

6、s than domestic investment儲(chǔ)蓄低于國(guó)內(nèi)投資Producing more than spending on goods and services 生產(chǎn)超過支出Spending more than producing生產(chǎn)少于支出If CA is in deficit, then what could we do?（若CA是赤字，我們應(yīng)該怎么做？）Increase Y, or decrease E.（增加商品和勞務(wù)的生產(chǎn)，或減少對(duì)商品和勞務(wù)的總支出）（2）Official settlements balance官方結(jié)算差額OR Current account balance

7、 + Private capital balance 即B = CA + KA 因?yàn)樗许?xiàng)目最終差額必須為0，所以官方結(jié)算差額的不平衡必須用官方儲(chǔ)備資產(chǎn)（OR）來彌補(bǔ)，因此，B + OR = 0意義： 如B>0，則外匯貯備增加。 如B<0，則外匯貯備減少。l 課后作業(yè)8. you are given the following information about a countrys international transactions during a year:Merchandise exports 商品出口 $330Merchandise imports 商品進(jìn)口 198Se

8、rvice exports 勞務(wù)出口 196Service imports 勞務(wù)進(jìn)口 204Imcome flows,net流量?jī)纛~ 3Unilateral transfers,net 單方面轉(zhuǎn)移金額 -8Increase in the countrys holding of foreign assets,net 202(excluding official reserve assets)增加在該國(guó)的凈外國(guó)資產(chǎn)Increase in foreign holding of the countrys assets,net 102(excluding official reserve assets)

9、增加在該國(guó)的本國(guó)資產(chǎn) Statistical discrepancy, net凈統(tǒng)計(jì)誤差 4A. Caculate the values of the countrys goods and services balance,current account balance經(jīng)常賬戶余額,and official settlements balance官方儲(chǔ)備資產(chǎn)余額.Merchandise trade balance: $330 - 198 = $132Goods and services balance: $330 - 198 + 196 - 204 = $124Current account

10、balance: $330 - 198 + 196 - 204 + 3 - 8 = $119Official settlements balance: $330 - 198 + 196 - 204 + 3 - 8 + 102 - 202 + 4 = $23B.What is the value of the change in official reserve assets(net)官方儲(chǔ)備資產(chǎn)?Is the country increasing or decreasing its net holding of official reserve assets?Change in officia

11、l reserve assets (net) = - official settlements balance = -$23.The country is increasing its net holdings of official reserve assets.第三章The Foreign Exchange Market 外匯市場(chǎng)Exchange rate匯率：an exchange rate is the price of one nations money in terms of another nations money.Floating exchange rate and fixe

12、d exchange rate 浮動(dòng)匯率和固定匯率Arbitrage within the spot exchange market現(xiàn)匯市場(chǎng)的套匯Spot exchange rate 即期匯率eForward exchange rate 遠(yuǎn)期匯率fRetail part of the market 外匯零售市場(chǎng)(銀行與個(gè)人、公司等一般客戶之間的外匯交易市場(chǎng)。)Interbank part of the market 外匯批發(fā)市場(chǎng)(銀行同業(yè)之間的外匯買賣及其場(chǎng)所。)vehicle currency媒介貨幣 depreciation貶值demand deposits活期存款 appreciatio

13、n 升值Quotations 報(bào)價(jià) devaluation法定貶值Par value平價(jià) revaluation 法定升值A(chǔ)rbitrage套利 Cross-rate交叉匯率Direct arbitrage直接套利Triangular arbitrage 三角套匯-arbitrage through three rates1.Demand and supply for foreign exchange (外匯的需求與供給)(1)U.S exports of goods and services will create a supply of foreign currency and a dem

14、and for U.S. dollars. 美國(guó)的商品和服務(wù)的出口將造成大量的外國(guó)貨幣供應(yīng)量和對(duì)美元的需求。(2)U.S imports of goods and services will create a demand for foreign currency and a supply of U.S. dollars.美國(guó)的商品和服務(wù)進(jìn)口將創(chuàng)建一個(gè)為外國(guó)貨幣和美元的供給需求(3)U.S capital outflows will create a demand for foreign currency. 美國(guó)資本外流將創(chuàng)建一個(gè)為外國(guó)貨幣的需求。(4)U.S capital inflows

15、will create a supply of foreign currency. 美國(guó)資本流入將創(chuàng)造大量的外國(guó)貨幣供應(yīng)量。u 一國(guó)商品和勞務(wù)的出口形成了外幣的供給，進(jìn)口形成對(duì)外幣的需求。u 對(duì)國(guó)外金融資產(chǎn)的購(gòu)買形成外幣的需求，外國(guó)對(duì)本國(guó)金融資產(chǎn)的購(gòu)買形成了外幣的供給。l 課后作業(yè)1. What are the major types of transactions or activities the result in supply of foreign currency in the spot foreign exchange market?在即期外匯市場(chǎng)造成外幣供應(yīng)的主要交易或活動(dòng)有哪些

16、？Exports of merchandise and services 勞務(wù)和商品的出口result in supply of foreign currency in the foreign exchange market. Domestic sellers often want to be paid using domestic currency, while the foreign buyers want to pay in their currency. In the process of paying for these exports, foreign currency is ex

17、changed for domestic currency, creating supply of foreign currency. International capital inflows 國(guó)際資本流入result in a supply of foreign currency in the foreign exchange market. In making investments in domestic financial assets, foreign investors often start with foreign currency and must exchange it

18、for domestic currency before they can buy the domestic assets. The exchange creates a supply of foreign currency. Sales of foreign financial assets that the country's residents had previously acquired, and borrowing from foreigners by this country's residents are other forms of capital inflo

19、w that can create supply of foreign currency8.You have access to the following three spot exchange rates即期匯率:$ 0.01 / yen$ 0.20 / krone25 yen / kroneA. how would engage in arbitrage（套利） to profit from these three rates? What is the profit for each dollar used initially?The arbitrage will be: Use dol

20、lars to buy kroner at $0.20/krone, use these kroner to buy yen at 25 yen/krone, and use the yen to buy dollars at $0.01/yen.For each dollar that you sell initially, you can obtain 5 kroner, these 5 kroner can obtain 125 yen, and the 125 yen can obtain $1.25. The arbitrage profit for each dollar is t

21、herefore 25 cents.第四章Forward Exchange and International Financial Investment 遠(yuǎn)期交易與國(guó)際金融投資forward foreign exchange contracts 遠(yuǎn)期外匯合同 Hedging and speculating by forward foreign exchange遠(yuǎn)期外匯的套期保值和投機(jī)International Financial Investment國(guó)際金融投資 Covered International Investment 拋補(bǔ)性國(guó)際投資Uncovered International In

22、vestment 非拋補(bǔ)性國(guó)際投資Forward foreign exchange contract遠(yuǎn)期外匯合同：是指在約定未來某一日期以一定的外匯匯率（遠(yuǎn)期匯率）買進(jìn)或賣出一定金額外幣的合同。Hedging using forward foreign exchange 遠(yuǎn)期外匯合同用于套期保值：套期保值包括獲取外幣資產(chǎn)來沖銷已有的外幣凈債務(wù)，或者獲取外幣債務(wù)來沖銷已有的外幣凈資產(chǎn)。 long position（多頭）：有的外幣凈資產(chǎn)的數(shù)量即多頭。short position（空頭)：外幣凈負(fù)債(即借入待還)的數(shù)量即空頭。Expected uncovered interest differen

23、tial （期非拋補(bǔ)利息差）Hedging套期保值 dollar-denominated (美元面值的)speculate(投機(jī)) inheriting (繼承）Speculation投機(jī) Covered interest arbitrage（補(bǔ)套利）receivable (應(yīng)收賬款). disbursed (支付）portfolio（投資組合） diversification (多樣化)1.Speculating using forward foreign exchange 遠(yuǎn)期外匯合同用于投機(jī)4月時(shí)預(yù)計(jì)英鎊價(jià)格從 $1.98/ 下降至$1.70/ （7月）簽訂3個(gè)月后賣出1百萬英鎊的遠(yuǎn)期合

24、同，90天遠(yuǎn)期匯率$1.9668 / )3個(gè)月后，英鎊價(jià)格如期下跌至$1.70/ 按現(xiàn)匯買入1百萬英鎊,支付$1,700,000結(jié)清合同，獲利 $266,800Principle of "buy low, sell high"Your speculation may turn out differently ：4月時(shí)預(yù)計(jì)英鎊價(jià)格從 $1.98/ 下降至$1.70/ （7月）簽訂3個(gè)月后賣出1百萬英鎊的遠(yuǎn)期合同，90天遠(yuǎn)期匯率$1.9668 / .3個(gè)月后，英鎊價(jià)格上升至$2.20/ 按現(xiàn)匯買入1百萬英鎊， 支付$2,200,000結(jié)清合同，虧損 $233,2002.Cove

25、red International Investment 拋補(bǔ)性國(guó)際投資箭頭：左至右：買入英鎊賣出美元 Ius：當(dāng)前美國(guó)的90天利率（非年率）右至左：賣出英鎊買入美元 Iuk：當(dāng)前英國(guó)的90天利率（非年率）向上：投資或放貸 e: 英鎊的現(xiàn)匯匯率（$/ ）向下：三個(gè)月后的收入貼現(xiàn) f : 當(dāng)前公布的90天遠(yuǎn)期匯率（$/ ）Lets start with one dollar：Covered interest differential拋補(bǔ)利息差CD=(1+ iuk) · f/e (1+ius) If CD>0, investing in BritainCD<0，investi

26、ng in America (home country)Forward premium 遠(yuǎn)期升水遠(yuǎn)期匯率高于即期匯率F = (f-e)/e 升水幅度 (if F is positive)Forward discount 遠(yuǎn)期貼水遠(yuǎn)期匯率低于即期匯率If F is negative，CD = F + (iuk -ius ) 3.Covered Interest Parity拋補(bǔ)利息平價(jià) CD=0CD= F + (iuk ius ) =0Thatis,F=iusiuk 遠(yuǎn)期升（貼）水等于兩國(guó)貨幣利差。Or F+ iuk =ius 國(guó)內(nèi)收益等于拋補(bǔ)性國(guó)外投資的總收益。當(dāng)A國(guó)利率低于B國(guó)利率時(shí)， A國(guó)

27、貨幣遠(yuǎn)期升水。反之，則貼水。l 四個(gè)rates的計(jì)算：current forward exchange rate當(dāng)前遠(yuǎn)期匯率 簡(jiǎn)f，current spot exchange rate當(dāng)前即期匯率 簡(jiǎn)e,current intreast rates in the two countries.兩國(guó)當(dāng)前利率 簡(jiǎn) iuk、ius.4.Uncovered Interest Parity非拋補(bǔ)利息平價(jià)EUD=Expected appreciation + (iuk - ius ) =0 即EUD=eex-e/e + (iuk - ius)=0，其中Expected appreciation= eex-e

28、/e（四個(gè)rates的計(jì)算，其中eex表示投資者預(yù)期的未來的即期匯率）That is, expected appreciation of the pound =ius iuk 預(yù)期英鎊升(貶）值等于兩國(guó)貨幣利差Or expected appreciation + iuk =ius 國(guó)內(nèi)收益等于非拋補(bǔ)性國(guó)外投資的總收益。l EUD=Expected depreciation + (iuk -ius ) < 0The U.S. investor should invest dollar-denominated bonds.EUD=Expected appreciation + (ius -

29、iuk) > 0The U.K. investor should invest dollar-denominated bondsl 課后練習(xí)4The current spot exchange rate當(dāng)前即期匯率 is $0.010/yen.The current 60-day forward exchange rate 當(dāng)前遠(yuǎn)期匯率is $0.009/yen.How would the U.S firms and people described in question 3 each use a forward foreign exchange contract遠(yuǎn)期外匯合同 to h

30、edge 規(guī)避their risk exposure風(fēng)險(xiǎn) ?what are the amounts in each forward contract ?a.The U.S. firm has an asset position in yenit has a long position in yen. To hedge its exposure to exchange rate risk, the firm should enter into a forward exchange contract now in which the firm commits to sell yen and re

31、ceive dollars at the current forward rate. The contract amounts are to sell 1 million yen and receive $9,000, both in 60 days.b.The student has an asset position in yena long position in yen. To hedge the exposure to exchange rate risk, the student should enter into a forward exchange contract now i

32、n which the student commits to sell yen and receive dollars at the current forward rate. The contract amounts are to sell 10 million yen and receive $90,000, both in 60 days.c.The U.S. firm has an liability position in yena short position in yen. To hedge its exposure to exchange rate risk, the firm

33、 should enter into a forward exchange contract now in which the firm commits to sell dollars and receive yen at the current forward rate. The contract amounts are to sell $900,000 and receive 100 million yen, both in 60 days.5.The current exchange rate即期匯率 is $1.20/euro.The current 90-day forward ex

34、change rate當(dāng)前遠(yuǎn)期匯率 is $1.18/euro.You expect the spot rate to be $1.22/euro in 90 days .How would you speculate投機(jī) using a forward contract?If many speculate in this way ,what a pressure is placed on the value of the current forward exchange rate?Relative to your expected spot value of the euro in 90 d

35、ays ($1.22/euro), the current forward rate of the euro ($1.18/euro) is lowthe forward value of the euro is relatively low. Using the principle of "buy low, sell high," you can speculate by entering into a forward contract now to buy euros at $1.18/euro. If you are correct in your expectati

36、on, then in 90 days you will be able to immediately resell those euros for $1.22/euro, pocketing a profit of $0.04 for each euro that you bought forward.If many people speculate in this way, then massive purchases now of euros forward (increasing the demand for euros forward) will tend to drive up t

37、he forward value of the euro, toward a current forward rate of $1.22/euro.8.The following rates are available in the markets:Current spot exchange rate即期匯率: $0.500/FrCurrent 30-day forward exchange rate當(dāng)前30天遠(yuǎn)期匯率: $0.505/SFrAnnualized interest rate on 30-day dollar-denominated bonds 30天美元計(jì)價(jià)券的年利率 : 12

38、%(1.0%for 30 days)Annualized interest rate on 30-day swiss franc -denominated bonds 30天瑞郎計(jì)價(jià)券的年利率 : 6%(0.5%for 30 days)A. Is the swiss franc at a forward premium or discount遠(yuǎn)期溢價(jià)或折價(jià)?The Swiss franc is at a forward premium. Its current forward value ($0.505/SFr) is greater than its current spot value (

39、$0.500/SFr).B. Should a U.S-based investor make a covered investment in swiss franc-denominated 30-day bonds ,rather than investing in 30-day dollar-denominated bonds?explain.CD=F+ iuk -ius =( 0.505-0.5)/0.5+(0.005-0.01)=0.005, there is a covered interest differential of 0.5% for 30 days (6 percent

40、at an annual rate). The U.S. investor can make a higher return, covered against exchange rate risk, by investing in SFr-denominated bonds.第五章What Determines Exchange Rates? 匯率是由什么決定的？focuses on short-run movements in exchange rates. 短期內(nèi)匯率變動(dòng)focuses on long-term trends. 長(zhǎng)期內(nèi)匯率變動(dòng)shows one way in which t

41、he short term flows into the medium term and then into the long term.短期匯率變動(dòng)對(duì)中長(zhǎng)期的影響。Asset market approach to exchange rates 資產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)說portfolio repositioning (投資組合重置）Ø The long run: the monetary approach長(zhǎng)期：貨幣理論The quantity theory (貨幣數(shù)量理論）貨幣數(shù)量公式：Ms=k×P×Y （1）Mfs=kf×Pf×Yf （2）Ms： Mone

42、y supply 貨幣供給k： proportional relationships between money holdings and the nominal value of GDP貨幣持有量和GDP的名義價(jià)值之比（代表消費(fèi)者的行為）P： price level 價(jià)格水平Y(jié)： real domestic products 實(shí)際國(guó)內(nèi)產(chǎn)出1.Three types of variability for exchange rates（三種變異類型的匯率）Long-term trends.Medium-term (over periods of several years) trends.Sho

43、rt-term (month to month) variability.2.短期匯率的決定因素變量的變化國(guó)際金融資產(chǎn)重組方向?qū)Ξ?dāng)前現(xiàn)匯匯率的影響 （e =本幣/外幣）國(guó)內(nèi)利率 (i)  增加轉(zhuǎn)向本幣資產(chǎn)e 減少 (本幣升值）減少轉(zhuǎn)向外幣資產(chǎn)e 增加 (本幣貶值）國(guó)外利率 (if)  增加轉(zhuǎn)向外幣資產(chǎn)e 增加 (本幣貶值）減少轉(zhuǎn)向本幣資產(chǎn)e 減少 (本幣升值）預(yù)期遠(yuǎn)期現(xiàn)匯匯率(eex)  增加轉(zhuǎn)向外幣資產(chǎn)e 增加 (本幣貶值）減少轉(zhuǎn)向本幣資產(chǎn)e 減少 (本幣升值）分析基于三個(gè)變量中一個(gè)發(fā)生變化時(shí)，其他兩個(gè)不變,對(duì)現(xiàn)匯匯率的影響。n I

44、f domestic i increases, while if and eex投資者預(yù)期的未來的即期匯率 remained constant,the return comparison shifts in favor of investments in domestic bonds.Why?This increase demand for domestic currency increases the current spot exchange rate value of domestic currency ,so e當(dāng)前即期匯率 decreases.n If foreign i incre

45、ases, while i and eex remained constant, the return comparison shifts in favor of investments in foreign bonds.This increase demand for foreign currency increases the current spot exchange rate e (the domestic currency depreciates)3.The Long Run: Purchasing Power Parity長(zhǎng)期：購(gòu)買力平價(jià)說 （PPP)Three versions：

46、² The law of one price 一價(jià)定律：商品的國(guó)內(nèi)價(jià)格等于國(guó)外價(jià)格乘以現(xiàn)匯匯率。P = e × Pf該定律對(duì)交易大宗商品來說是正確的。如，黃金，其他金屬，原油和農(nóng)產(chǎn)品?！耙粌r(jià)定律”在現(xiàn)實(shí)中已失去意義。² Absolute purchasing power parity 絕對(duì)購(gòu)買力平價(jià)說：匯率取決于以不同貨幣衡量的多種可貿(mào)易商品價(jià)格水平之比。 P = Pf×e -or- e = P/Pf絕對(duì)購(gòu)買力平價(jià)不成立。² Relative purchasing power parity 相對(duì)購(gòu)買力平價(jià)說：Rate of appreciati

47、on of the foreign currency=f國(guó)外貨幣的升貶值率 = 國(guó)內(nèi)通脹率國(guó)外通脹率若 > 0,本幣貶值< 0,本幣升值4.The effect of money supplies on an exchange rate貨幣供給對(duì)匯率的影響Example: （英國(guó)為外國(guó)，美國(guó)為本國(guó)）英國(guó)減少10的貨幣供給英鎊減少，變得更值錢從緊貨幣政策，銀行縮減信貸造成借貸困難，減少了總需求，產(chǎn)出，就業(yè)。價(jià)格水平下降10根據(jù)相對(duì)購(gòu)買力平價(jià)說, 英鎊匯率上升10The effect of real incomes on an exchange rate 實(shí)際收入對(duì)匯率的影響Examp

48、le: （英國(guó)為外國(guó)，美國(guó)為本國(guó)）英國(guó)生產(chǎn)力上升，實(shí)際收入增加了10增加了人們對(duì)英鎊的需求但假定英國(guó)貨幣存量沒有增加，則物價(jià)會(huì)下降10根據(jù)相對(duì)購(gòu)買力平價(jià)說，英鎊匯率上升10l 課后作業(yè)2.The following rates currently exist:Spot exchange rate即期匯率 :$1.000/euroAnnual interest rate on 180-day euro denominated bonds 180歐元計(jì)價(jià)券的年利率 :3%Annual interest rate on 180-day U.S dollar denominated bonds 180

49、天美元計(jì)價(jià)券的年利率:4%Investors currently expect the spot exchange rate to be about $1.005/euro in180 daysA. Show that uncovered interest parity拋補(bǔ)利率平價(jià) holds(appromixmately)at these rates.The euro is expected to appreciate at an annual rate of approximately (1.005 - 1.000)/1.000)×(360/180) = 1%. The expe

50、cted uncovered interest differential is approximately 1% + 3% - 4% = 0, so uncovered interest parity holds (approximately)B. What is likely to be the effect on the spot exchange rate即期匯率 if the interest rate on 180-day dollar-denominated bonds 180天美元計(jì)價(jià)券的利率declines to 3 percent?If the euro interest r

51、ate and the expected future spot rate are unchanged ,and if uncovered interest parity 拋補(bǔ)利息平價(jià)is reestablished重建 ,what will the new current spot exchange rate be ? Has the dollar appreciated or depreciated升值或貶值?If the interest rate on 180-day dollar-denominated bonds declines to 3%, the expected uncov

52、ered interest differential shifts in favor of investing in euro-denominated bonds. The increased demand for euros in the spot exchange market tends to appreciate the euro. Since ieu=3%, eex =$1.005/euro, EUD=0, e? (1.005-e)/e + (3% - 3%)= 0 e=$1.005/euroWith e increasing, U.S. dollar depreciates4.Yo

53、u observe the following current rates:Spot exchange rate:$0.01/yenAnnual interest rate on 90-day U.S -dollardenominated bonds :5%Annual interest rate on 90-day yendenominated bonds :4%A. If uncovered interest parity holds, what spot exchange rate do investors expect to exist in 90 days?For uncovered

54、 interest parity holds, (eex-0.01)/0.01 + 4% - 4%=0 eex= $0.01/yen.B. A close U.S presidential election 美國(guó)總統(tǒng)選舉has just been decided.the candidate whom international investors view as the stronger and more probusiness person won.Because if this ,investors expect the exchange rate to be $0.0095/yen in

55、 90 days.what will happen in the foreign exchange market?If investors expect that the exchange rate will be $0.0095/yen, then they expect the yen to depreciate from its initial spot value during the next 90 days. Given the other rates, investors tend to shift their investments toward dollar-denominated investments. The extra supply of yen (and demand for dollars) in the spot exchange market results in a decrease in the current spot value of the yen (the dollar appreciates). Thus, the yen will depreciate (the dollar to appreciate) immediately in the current spot