能源轉(zhuǎn)型方案：全球經(jīng)驗(yàn)和最佳實(shí)踐

1、CONTENTS HYPERLINK l _bookmark0 This report and its focus 9 HYPERLINK l _bookmark1 Key findings and HYPERLINK l _bookmark1 recommendations 10 HYPERLINK l _bookmark3 Introduction: Long-Term Energy Scenarios for the Clean HYPERLINK l _bookmark3 Energy Transition 13 HYPERLINK l _bookmark2 The clean ene

2、rgy transition: HYPERLINK l _bookmark2 A challenge for decision makers 13 HYPERLINK l _bookmark6 The campaign on Long-Term Energy Scenarios01 HYPERLINK l _bookmark6 for the Clean Energy Transition (LTES campaign) 15 HYPERLINK l _bookmark8 Strengthening scenario HYPERLINK l _bookmark8 development 18

3、HYPERLINK l _bookmark9 Establishing a strong governance structure 19 HYPERLINK l _bookmark10 Participatory processes 20 HYPERLINK l _bookmark25 Co-ordination amongst LTES entities 28 HYPERLINK l _bookmark35 Expanding the boundaries of scenarios 33 HYPERLINK l _bookmark36 Scenarios for a just, clean

4、energy transition 34 HYPERLINK l _bookmark43 Accounting for innovation in the energy sector 38 HYPERLINK l _bookmark94 APPENDIX: HYPERLINK l _bookmark95 LTES campaign and network activities 2018 2020 HYPERLINK l _bookmark96 REFERENCES717402 HYPERLINK l _bookmark54 Improving scenario use 45Clarifying

5、 the purpose of scenario-building HYPERLINK l _bookmark55 46 HYPERLINK l _bookmark56 Forecasting and backcasting 47 HYPERLINK l _bookmark59 Building consensus and raising ambition 48 HYPERLINK l _bookmark62 Conservative and exploratory scenarios 49Transparent and effective communication HYPERLINK l

6、_bookmark66 52 HYPERLINK l _bookmark66 Effective communication tools 52 HYPERLINK l _bookmark67 Transparent and publicly available information 5403 HYPERLINK l _bookmark78 Identifying capacity HYPERLINK l _bookmark78 building approaches 60 HYPERLINK l _bookmark79 3.1 Building the right type of scena

7、rio HYPERLINK l _bookmark79 capacity in government 61 HYPERLINK l _bookmark83 Insourcing scenario development capacity 63 HYPERLINK l _bookmark90 Outsourcing scenario development capacity 68Figures HYPERLINK l _bookmark4 Figure 1: HYPERLINK l _bookmark4 How scenarios are developed and used: HYPERLIN

8、K l _bookmark4 A mental model for the LTES campaign14 HYPERLINK l _bookmark6 Figure 2: HYPERLINK l _bookmark6 Focus areas of the LTES campaign and key questions15 HYPERLINK l _bookmark7 Figure 3: HYPERLINK l _bookmark7 How LTES campaign countries are using HYPERLINK l _bookmark7 and developing scena

9、rios16 HYPERLINK l _bookmark11 Figure 4: HYPERLINK l _bookmark11 Finlands participatory process for the development HYPERLINK l _bookmark11 of a low carbon roadmap to 2050 HYPERLINK l _bookmark11 20 HYPERLINK l _bookmark13 Figure 5: HYPERLINK l _bookmark13 Denmarks Technology Catalogues development

10、process, HYPERLINK l _bookmark13 including external consultation HYPERLINK l _bookmark13 21 HYPERLINK l _bookmark15 Figure 6: HYPERLINK l _bookmark15 The three pillars of the participatory process for HYPERLINK l _bookmark15 the PNE 2050 in Brazil HYPERLINK l _bookmark15 22 HYPERLINK l _bookmark17 F

11、igure 7: HYPERLINK l _bookmark17 Chiles long-term energy and transmission planning HYPERLINK l _bookmark17 governance structure HYPERLINK l _bookmark17 23 HYPERLINK l _bookmark19 Figure 8: HYPERLINK l _bookmark19 Belgiums participative process for HYPERLINK l _bookmark19 low carbon scenarios by 2050

12、 HYPERLINK l _bookmark19 24 HYPERLINK l _bookmark21 Figure 9: HYPERLINK l _bookmark21 The World Energy Councils scenario-building process HYPERLINK l _bookmark21 26 HYPERLINK l _bookmark24 Figure 10: HYPERLINK l _bookmark24 Swiss informed citizen panel process developed to design LTES HYPERLINK l _b

13、ookmark24 27 HYPERLINK l _bookmark27 Figure 11: HYPERLINK l _bookmark27 The systematic interaction and feedback channels between HYPERLINK l _bookmark27 institutions involved in the planning process HYPERLINK l _bookmark27 28 HYPERLINK l _bookmark29 Figure 12: HYPERLINK l _bookmark29 German coordina

14、tion process for transmission HYPERLINK l _bookmark29 expansion scenarios, planning and permitting HYPERLINK l _bookmark29 30 HYPERLINK l _bookmark32 Figure 13: HYPERLINK l _bookmark32 UAE Energy Strategy 2050 development process HYPERLINK l _bookmark32 31 HYPERLINK l _bookmark32 Figure 14: HYPERLIN

15、K l _bookmark32 Canadas Federal Energy Information Framework HYPERLINK l _bookmark32 31 HYPERLINK l _bookmark34 Figure 15: HYPERLINK l _bookmark34 Scenario-building steps for the ENTSO-E and HYPERLINK l _bookmark34 ENTSOG joint scenario HYPERLINK l _bookmark34 32 HYPERLINK l _bookmark38 Figure 16: H

16、YPERLINK l _bookmark38 Finlands scenario modelling framework to study the impacts HYPERLINK l _bookmark38 of long-term energy and climate policies HYPERLINK l _bookmark38 35 HYPERLINK l _bookmark41 Figure 17: HYPERLINK l _bookmark41 The European Commission modelling suite for HYPERLINK l _bookmark41

17、 integrated modelling of the economy, energy, HYPERLINK l _bookmark41 land use and agriculture, and air pollution HYPERLINK l _bookmark41 36 HYPERLINK l _bookmark42 Figure 18: HYPERLINK l _bookmark42 Global renewable energy jobs for the Planned Energy Scenario HYPERLINK l _bookmark42 and the Transfo

18、rming Energy Scenario in and 2050 HYPERLINK l _bookmark42 37 HYPERLINK l _bookmark46 Figure 19: HYPERLINK l _bookmark46 The landscape of innovations to integrate HYPERLINK l _bookmark46 variable renewable energy HYPERLINK l _bookmark46 39 HYPERLINK l _bookmark47 Figure 20: HYPERLINK l _bookmark47 NR

19、EL illustrative view of disruptive technologies for distributed HYPERLINK l _bookmark47 energy resources and bulk power transformation HYPERLINK l _bookmark47 40 HYPERLINK l _bookmark49 Figure 21: HYPERLINK l _bookmark49 Drivers of future innovation for a low energy demand scenario HYPERLINK l _book

20、mark49 42 HYPERLINK l _bookmark51 Figure 22: HYPERLINK l _bookmark51 The World Energy Councils Constellation of Disruptions in HYPERLINK l _bookmark51 Commercial Road Fleets HYPERLINK l _bookmark51 43 HYPERLINK l _bookmark58 Figure 23: HYPERLINK l _bookmark58 Types of uses of LTES for planning the c

21、lean energy transition HYPERLINK l _bookmark58 47 HYPERLINK l _bookmark61 Figure 24: HYPERLINK l _bookmark61 Chinas use of LTES resulting in recommendations and policy HYPERLINK l _bookmark61 measures for the energy transition HYPERLINK l _bookmark61 48GLOBAL EXPERIENCE AND BEST PRACTICES HYPERLINK

22、l _bookmark65 Figure 25: HYPERLINK l _bookmark65 Siemens Gamesa scenario analysis for a strategic vision HYPERLINK l _bookmark65 of the futures impact on business HYPERLINK l _bookmark65 51 HYPERLINK l _bookmark69 Figure 26: HYPERLINK l _bookmark69 A game to improve scenario transparency: HYPERLINK

23、l _bookmark69 The FutureLab communication exercise used HYPERLINK l _bookmark69 by policy makers in the United Arab Emirates HYPERLINK l _bookmark69 54 HYPERLINK l _bookmark71 Figure 27: HYPERLINK l _bookmark71 Data analysis and inputs required for modelling LTES HYPERLINK l _bookmark71 55 HYPERLINK

24、 l _bookmark73 Figure 28: HYPERLINK l _bookmark73 Chiles Long-term Energy Planning process including HYPERLINK l _bookmark73 annual updating of LTES background assumptions HYPERLINK l _bookmark73 57 HYPERLINK l _bookmark77 Figure 29: HYPERLINK l _bookmark77 Emission trajectories comparison based on

25、energy-related HYPERLINK l _bookmark77 and process CO2 scenarios for the European energy transition HYPERLINK l _bookmark77 59 HYPERLINK l _bookmark82 Figure 30: HYPERLINK l _bookmark82 Allocation of scenario building capacityfrom HYPERLINK l _bookmark82 the governments perspective HYPERLINK l _book

26、mark82 62 HYPERLINK l _bookmark82 Figure 31: HYPERLINK l _bookmark82 Advantages and challenges of insourcing and outsourcing HYPERLINK l _bookmark82 LTES development capacity HYPERLINK l _bookmark82 62 HYPERLINK l _bookmark85 Figure 32: HYPERLINK l _bookmark85 The United Kingdoms quality assurance f

27、ramework for HYPERLINK l _bookmark85 modelling in government HYPERLINK l _bookmark85 64 HYPERLINK l _bookmark86 Figure 33 HYPERLINK l _bookmark86 Stages for developing LTES in Brazil for the HYPERLINK l _bookmark86 National Energy Plan 205065 HYPERLINK l _bookmark89 Figure 34 HYPERLINK l _bookmark89

28、 ETSAPs community allocation of energy modelling HYPERLINK l _bookmark89 and scenario capacity67 HYPERLINK l _bookmark92 Figure 35: HYPERLINK l _bookmark92 German scenarios for PV and wind generation by 2050 HYPERLINK l _bookmark92 a comparison of views from three independent institutions HYPERLINK

29、l _bookmark92 69Boxes HYPERLINK l _bookmark3 Box 1: HYPERLINK l _bookmark3 The LTES campaigns mental model for how LTES are HYPERLINK l _bookmark3 developed and used HYPERLINK l _bookmark3 15 HYPERLINK l _bookmark24 Box 2: HYPERLINK l _bookmark24 Facilitating LTES participatory processes with citize

30、ns HYPERLINK l _bookmark24 and politicians through academic institutions27 HYPERLINK l _bookmark41 Box 3: HYPERLINK l _bookmark41 LTES for the clean energy transition in light HYPERLINK l _bookmark41 of the COVID-19 crisis HYPERLINK l _bookmark41 36 HYPERLINK l _bookmark45 Box 4: HYPERLINK l _bookma

31、rk45 The landscape of innovations for facilitating HYPERLINK l _bookmark45 the integration of variable renewable energy HYPERLINK l _bookmark45 38 HYPERLINK l _bookmark53 Box 5: HYPERLINK l _bookmark53 Improving the understanding and modelling HYPERLINK l _bookmark53 of innovation in LTES HYPERLINK

32、l _bookmark53 44 HYPERLINK l _bookmark63 Box 6: HYPERLINK l _bookmark63 The private sectors use of LTES HYPERLINK l _bookmark63 50 HYPERLINK l _bookmark75 Box 7: HYPERLINK l _bookmark75 Improving transparency and mapping uncertainty HYPERLINK l _bookmark75 through LTES comparisons HYPERLINK l _bookm

33、ark75 58 HYPERLINK l _bookmark88 Box 8: HYPERLINK l _bookmark88 International cooperation to improve modelling HYPERLINK l _bookmark88 and scenario development practices HYPERLINK l _bookmark88 66 HYPERLINK l _bookmark93 Box 9: HYPERLINK l _bookmark93 Proprietary and non-proprietary LTES modelling t

34、ools HYPERLINK l _bookmark93 707Abbreviations and acronymsAFEP: French Association of Private CompaniesBEIS: Department of Business, Energy and Industrial StrategyCEM: Clean Energy MinisterialCNREC: China National Renewable Energy CenterDEA: Danish Energy AgencyDECC: Department of Energy and Climate

35、 ChangeEPE: Brazilian Energy Research OfficeETSAP: Energy Technology System Analysis ProgramGHG: greenhouse gasGSE: Energy Services ManagerIEA: International Energy AgencyIPCC: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate ChangeIRENA: International Renewable Energy AgencyKAPSARC: King Abdullah Petroleum Studi

36、es and Research CenterLTES: long-term energy scenariosLTS: long-term strategiesNDC: nationally determined contributions NGO: non-governmental organisation VRE: variable renewable energyTCFD: The Task Force on Climate-related Financial DisclosuresUNFCCC: United Nations Framework Convention on Climate

37、 ChangeTHIS REPORTAND ITS FOCUSLong-term energy scenarios (LTES), which have been used for many decades as a vital planning tool for governments, can also serve to guide the transition to a clean, sustainable and increasingly renewable-based energy system. The Long-term Energy Scenarios for the Clea

38、n Energy Transition campaign, also known as the LTES campaign was initiated in May 2018 under the Clean Energy Ministerial (CEM) to promote the improved use and development of LTES for the clean energy transition. The campaign is led by the governments of Denmark and Germany, and co-ordinated by the

39、 International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA).This report assesses a collection of recommendations and country experiences gathered through the activities of the LTES campaign and the LTES Network (IRENAs extension of the LTES campaign to cover non-CEM countries). These activities included over 26

40、events in 10 different countries and a webinar series with more than 20 experts showcasing examples of the value and effective use of scenarios in governments and technical institutions supporting countries clean energy transition planning processes.Discussions also revealed that, in the context of

41、the broad and complex challenges of a clean energy transition, much more must be done to encourage the more effective and extensive use of long-term energy scenarios.Chapter 1 focuses on strengthening scenario development, highlighting how scenarios can better account for potentially transformationa

42、l changes. Chapter 2 focuses on improving scenario use, exploring how scenarios can be better used for strategic decision-making by governments and investors. Chapter 3 identifies approaches that can enhance institutional capacity for scenario planning.This report expands upon the report, Long-term

43、energy scenarios: First-year campaign findings, which collected findings from the first year of the campaign.KEY FINDINGS AND RECOMMENDATIONSThe following key insights and recommendations for policy makers, identified in discussions to date, can help make the most of using long-term energy scenarios

44、 (LTES):01Strengthening scenario developmentEstablishing a strong governance structureThe clean energy transition will require broad participation and stronger coordination across different government institutions. Examples of strong governance structures exist and can be learnt from.Participatory p

45、rocesses: consensus can only be attained by opening up the process, making it participatory and inclusive, with a multi-institutional approach. A participatory process creates trustworthy scenarios.Coordination amongst LTES entities: often, there is a range of national institutions involved in scena

46、rio development at different stages of planning. Greater coordination is needed not only between energy planning agencies and institutions, but also with the climate community.Expanding the boundaries of scenariosModel results are inevitably shaped by the scope of the model itself. To adequately ref

47、lect the complexities of the clean energy transition, models and scenarios need to better address new technologies, business models and disruptive innovations.Scenarios for a just, clean energy transition: it is necessary to investigate the questions policymakers ask in relation to the impacts of th

48、e clean energy transition on economic growth, employment and welfare; and not the questions scenario developers want them to ask. Scenarios can be utilised to guide policymakers on how to achieve a prosperous and inclusive just transition.Accounting for innovation in the energy sector: the clean ene

49、rgy transition invites disruptive innovation within the energy sector and in all other sectors of the economy. Innovation in decentralisation, digitalisation and electrification of the energy system are the key to a renewable-powered future and need to be better accounted for in clean energy transit

50、ion scenarios.KEY FINDINGS AND RECOMMENDATIONS02Improving scenario useClarifying the purpose of scenario-buildingScenarios can be used for different purposes, depending on the context and the goals being pursued. Such distinctions should be clear to avoid misinterpretation of clean energy transition

51、 scenarios.Forecasting and backcasting: forecasting is used to predict future events or trends, or to answer the question: what it going to happen? Backcasting can be used to provide potential pathways backwards from a certain goal or target and can assist in determining policies to support the achi

52、evement of a goal or ask the question: how do we get to a certain point in the future?Building consensus and raising ambition: scenarios can be a tool to open debate and build consensus around what the future may look like, and to bring stakeholders together. Scenarios can be used to generate debate

53、 and raise ambition when developing pathways to be taken to achieve the desired decarbonisation.Conservative and exploratory: network development and regulatory design need to be considered plausible; therefore, realistic (conservative) scenarios are often preferred. Exploratory analysis is useful f

54、or preventing persistent business-as-usual conclusions, raising awareness of opportunities, considering future shocks and challenges, and identifying risk and uncertainty related to the clean energy transition.Transparent and effective communicationTransparency ensures the quality of scenarios and b

55、uilds trust. Scenario assumptions and results need to be clearly communicated in the context of the more complex clean energy transitions and innovative communication methods that are now emerging.Effective communication tools: communication facilitates the LTES participatory processes and engages i

56、mportant actors whose cooperation is required for achieving the clean energy transition. The insights of scenarios need to be communicated in simple messages that can be understood by non-experts and people who do not deal with scenarios on a regular basis.Transparent and publicly available informat

57、ion: transparency is required in terms of input data, methodology and assumptions. This allows scenarios to be thoroughly scrutinised and decisionmakers to trace which assumptions drive specific results.03Identifying capacity- building approaches3. 1 Building the right type of scenario capacity in g

58、overnmentThe capacity to use scenarios can be created through the use of modelling tools within government institutions. If modelling is outsourced, governments must still ensure they have the capacity to understand the results.Insourcing scenario development capacity: having a team or agency dedica

59、ted to modelling and scenario building is crucial for successful insourcing. Setting an institutional process for regular updates of LTES and engaging with external stakeholders to establish quality assurance, both support the continuity and growth of internal capabilities.Outsourcing scenario devel

60、opment capacity: successful outsourcing of LTES requires absorptive capacity within government to understand the modelling results. Outsourcing allows access to high-end scenario-building techniques; however full disclosure of scenario data and modelling methodologies is needed to aid understanding