中國(guó)電動(dòng)汽車(chē)零部件：準(zhǔn)備好迎接繁榮

1、ContentsWhy readthisreport?1 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250009 Facts andfigures4 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250008 Relatedresearch5 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250007 Moving into thefastlane6 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250006 What the EV boom means for componentmakers HYPERLINK l _TOC_250005 Companysection29 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250004 Eve Ene

2、rgy(300014CH)30 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250003 Sanhua(002050CH)45 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250002 Yinghe Tech(300457CH)59 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250001 Faratronic(600563CH)69 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250000 Putailai(603659CH)81Disclosureappendix93Disclaimer96China EV component makersFacts and figures2%Global plug-in vehicles sa

3、lespenetration in 201814%Our global teams forecast ofpenetration in 2025eGrowth is driven by sustained policy pushes in China and Europe, and improving battery technology41%CAGRGrowth is driven by sustained policy pushes in China and Europe, and improving battery technologyOur global teams forecast

4、for growth in plug-in vehicle sales over2018-21e38%Global EV lithium ion battery revenue CAGR in 2018-21e41%Global EV film capacitor revenue CAGR in 2018-21e44%Global EV heat management revenue CAGR in 2018-21eWe expect a global EV boom to drive growth for China EV component suppliers40-70%We expect

5、 a global EV boom to drive growth for China EV component suppliersChina suppliers share of the globalEVcomponents supplychain4 yearsAverage replacement cycle of lithium battery equipmentxThe value of the heat management system on an EV is about 2.5x that on a comparable internal combustion engine ve

6、hicleRelated researchRecommended reading.ChinaSolarEquipmentInitiatedaysahead,20June2019AsiaEVBatteryracetobethekingup,14June2019ChinaPowerT&DEquipmentInitiateTimetopowerup,11April2019Moving into the fast laneGlobal EV demand is set toboomWe see opportunities for selected Chinese component makersalo

7、ng the supplychainWe initiate on five stocks in the sector prefer Eve and Faratronic which have stronger pricingpowerReady to accelerateThe transition to EVs continues to gather momentumChina supplies between 40% and 70% of global EV components, depending on the product category, and is expanding it

8、s dominance along the supply chain. At the same time, our global team expects global EV penetration to rise from 2% in 2018 to 14% in 2025 (see Asia/Europe EV Battery Who will take the Li-ions share, 14 June 2019). Hence, we see plenty of upside potential for Chinese EV component producers.Despite c

9、hallenges along the way, the transition from internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles to EVs continues to gather momentum. For example, countries around the world have rolled out a series of policies to promote the use of EVs (Exhibit 1). In China, the government plans to implement stricter standar

10、ds N6A next year and N6B in 2023 to cut CO2 emissions per passenger vehicle (PV) by 30% and 29% respectively. In Europe, EU regulators target a 15% cut in CO2 emissions per PV in 2020-25 (the EUs 2020 emission standard is already 19% lower than Chinas N6A standard).Our global team expects these effo

11、rts, along with improving technology, to drive a 41% sales CAGR for EVs over 2018-21e. In turn, we expect Chinese EV component makers to see a 2018-21e revenue CAGR of 36-44%.Exhibit 1. Global policies to encourage the adoption of EVEUChinaUSCO2 target for PV: -15% in 2020-25, - 26% in 2025-30CO2 em

12、ission penalty: From 2019: EUR95 per vehicle for each g/km exceededtargetSuper credits for low emission vehicle (40060,00057,00054,00055,00044,00050,00025,000PHEV (mileage under EV mode, in km):5035,00033,25031,50030,00024,00022,00010,000Source: MIIT, Ministry of Finance, HSBC Qianhai Securities est

13、imatesExhibit 29. EV COGS breakdown: LIB is the single-largest blockExhibit 30. Within LIB, cathode is the largest cost contributorLabor &Heatmanagement system 5.0%0.4%Body 5.0%Chassis 14.0%Auto 12.9%Battery 38.0%motor 7.0%Shell14%14%fixed costs14%SeparatorCathode30%Anode 8%Electrolyte12.0%Motor con

14、troller excapacitors5.7%12%8%Source: Company, HSBC QianhaiSecuritiesestimatesSource: Company, HSBC Qianhai SecuritiesestimatesLIB is most relevant to EV COGS, less so for other componentsAsinistoain is by for isHeat management systems and capacitors are more defensive against pricecutsTo evaluate th

15、e potential pricing pressures of different sub-segments, we compare the sub- segments base on their respective shares of EV costs, profitability, market concentrations, and entry barriers. A high cost share or profitability could lead to a high risk of being targeted by auto makers for price cuts. C

16、onversely, a high market concentration or barrier to entry could strengthen incumbents pricing power. In our view, the order of defensiveness against price cuts is heat management capacitors equipment separators LIB anodematerials.EV LIB: LIB is the single-largest contributor to EV COGS, accounting

17、for c40% of the EV cost (Exhibit 29). We therefore see a high likelihood of auto makers passing through the cost hikes to EV LIB suppliers. However, given relatively strong bargaining power compared upstreamsuppliers,believeLIBsupplierspassonthepricingAnode materials: This market is fragmented, with

18、 the top four players in China (BTR, Shanshan,Putailai,Kaijin)havingmarketsharesof14-22%(Exhibit19).Weseepotential overcapacity in the segment, with the top four all planning to double or triple their capacity in the next 2-3 years. This could lead to rising pricecompetition.EV separators: Despite a

19、 high gross margin for industry leaders, small players are exiting the industry because they lack scale and technology. This has resulted in high market concentration, with the largest player, Semcorp, having a 36% market share in 2018. On 5 August 2019, Semcorp announced a proposal to acquire Green

20、 Power New Energy,thesecond-largest player. Should the acquisition be completed, Semcorps market share would increase to 47%. Technology barriers are also high, with the manufacturing process comprising more than 200 stages, making it hard for new players to enter.LIB equipment: Equipment depreciati

21、on accounted for just 6% of LIBs COGS in 2018. Therefore, we dont see LIB equipment as a good target for auto makers to squeeze cost. In fact, given rising demand for better quality machines, we expect ASP for certain type of equipment torise.Capacitors: Capacitors only accounts for 0.4% of an EVs c

22、ost, the lowest among all sub- segments. We therefore see low pricing pressure for thismarket.Heat management: This market is highly concentrated, with Sanhua having a c80% market share in key components like EXV. The GM of industry leaders at 20-30% is also not high enough to entice new suppliers,

23、we believe (Exhibit37).Exhibit 31. Gross margin along EV LIB supply chain: Separator the highestIndustry leaders GM48%36%24%24%23%17%SeparatorLIBequipmentAnodeElectrolyteEV LIBCathode48%36%24%24%23%17%2018Source: Company, HSBC Qianhai SecuritiesExhibit 32. Gross margin:LIB producersExhibit 33. Gross

24、 margin: AnodematerialssuppliersPower Battery GM34.1%2804Power Battery GM34.1%2804%8.9%20.3%17.6%17.5%3.6%2High-techGuoxuanCATLEveHigh-tech42.6%33.9%24.4%23.8%23.6%SZ Sinuo Putailai Shanshan Kaijin New33.9%24.4%23.8%23.6%XFH20181H19201820181H19EnergySource: Company data, HSBCQianhaiSecuritiesSource:

25、 Company data, HSBC QianhaiSecuritiesExhibit 34. Gross margin: Wet separator suppliers60.3%48.4%45.4%30.5%Separator GM 70%60.3%48.4%45.4%30.5%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%Exhibit 35. Gross margin: LIB equipment makers46.7%45.3%38.7%32.8% 32.8%30.7%LIB equipment GM46.7%45.3%38.7%32.8% 32.8%30.7%50%45%40%35%30

26、%25%20%15%10%5%SemcorpSenior Material2018PutailaiGreenPowerNewEnergy0%Hangke NebulaElecLead Yinghe Tech2018Putailai KanhooSource: Company data, HSBCQianhaiSecuritiesSource: Company data, HSBC QianhaiSecuritiesExhibit 36. Gross margin: Capacitor suppliersExhibit 37. Gross margin: Heat management supp

27、liersKemet Nichicon Tongfeng Vishay Jianghai Aihua Faratronic7.5%19.0%21.7%23.0%27.3%33.0%43.20%Auto Heat Management GM0%20%40%Gross Margin (2018)0%29.4%26.2%24.9%19.3%SanhuaYinlunSongzAotecar29.4%26.2%24.9%19.3%Note: Use comprehensive gross margin for Nichicon, film and electrolytic capacitor segme

28、nt gross margin for Kemet, and capacitor segment gross margin for Vishay, Tongfeng, Jianghai, and Aihua. The measured period for Nichicon and Kemet is 2018.3-2019.3Source: Company data, HSBC Qianhai SecuritiesNote: Use Sanhuas auto parts segment gross margin for Sanhua, heat exchanger plus auto A/C

29、gross margin for Yinlun, comprehensive gross margin for Songz, and compressor plus auto A/C segment gross margin for AotocarSource: Company, HSBC Qianhai SecuritiesThe impact of LIB technology trendsThere are two major types of LIBThe rapid evolution of LIB technology could bring uncertainty to comp

30、anies along the EV supply chain. In this section, we analyze the impact of the LIB technology trends on each sub-segment. For equipment, heat management and capacitor suppliers, we see opportunities given the need for replacements and upgrading; but, for LIB, separator and anode materials suppliers,

31、 different LIB technology roadmaps could present risks.LIB: Flipping between LFP and NCMThere are two major types of LIB: Nickel Cobalt Manganese (NCM) and Lithium Iron Phosphate (LFP). Compared with NCM, the energy density of LFP is 15% lower. Due to a tiered subsidy scheme in China which favours E

32、V models with a greater driving distance, NCM took share from LFP in 2017-18. However, with the cut of NEV subsidies in China, we believe the playing field is becoming more level.China has removed the subsidy for battery electric vehicles (BEV) with a driving range (per charge) below 250km starting

33、2019 and plans to remove the remaining subsidy completely in 2020. We believe this should benefit LFP, which is cheaper than NCM. The average price of LFP battery is RMB0.15/Wh lower than that of NCM. Hence, for the model with a 40kWh battery set, the cost per car with LFP battery could be RMB6k or

34、6% lower than that with NCM battery.In mass production, the cost advantage of LFP could strengthen, given a larger share of labour and fixed costs in its COGS (Exhibit 40). LFP also has a longer life span (more charge cycles), higher charge rate (shorter time to charge up), and is safer than NCM (Ex

35、hibit 38). We believe this should make LFP increasingly competitive with NCM in 2019-20. This should benefit Eve, which plans to increase its LFP capacity from 2.5GWh in 2018 to 12GWh in 2020.In addition to rising LFP adoption on EVs, we also see LFP demand from the following areas:Utility-scale pow

36、er storage: We expect demand in China to rise from 7.7GWh in 2018to 11.5GWh in 2021, driven by rising demand from grid and industrialusers.5G communication base stations: We expect a total demand of 70GWh assuming 1.4m base station additions/replacements and a LIB demand of 50kwh/station. LIB is use

37、d as the back-up power source for the basestations.Exhibit 38. LIB: Comparison of different battery technologiesLCOLFPLMONCMNCAVoltage (V)3.63.7Capacity (mAh/g)150150120160-190190Density (g/cm3)2.8-3.01.0-1.42.2-2.42.0-2.32.0-2.4Life span (# of charge cycles)500-1000150010001000300-500SafetyGoodFair

38、GoodGoodSource: Company data, HSBC Qianhai SecuritiesExhibit 44. LIB anode: Artificial graphites share to rise further in 2019-21eExhibit 45. Global LIB anode sales, 2018- 21e201720182019E2020E2021E-tonnes20182019E2020E2021EtonnesNatural graphite Artificial graphite OthergraphiteChinaOverseasSource:

39、GGII,HSBCQianhaiSecurities (E=HSBCQianhaiSecuritiesestimates)HSBCQianhaiSecurities(E=HSBCQianhaiSecuritiesestimates)Separators: The introduction of solid-state battery could be disruptiveThere are two major types of separators wet and dry. Wet separators have lower short-circuit rates and can be mad

40、e thinner. However, they are also more costly to produce than dry separators. Given better quality and a narrower price gap, we expect the wet share of global separator output to rise from 52% in 2018 to 56% in 2021e (Exhibit 47). While the trend of wet replacing dry looks highly probable, the intro

41、duction of new battery technologies such as the solid-state battery could be disruptive to the overall market. A solid-state battery uses solid and does need Should that become a we see a risk to demand for separators, wet and dry alike.Exhibit 46. Separators: Pros and cons of different production t

42、echnologiesProsConsDryprocessCheaper and easiertoproduceLacks flexibility indesignWetprocessCan be made thinner and of lower short- circuitrateHarder to produce and more expensiveSource: Company data, HSBC Qianhai SecuritiesExhibit 47. Global separators: Wet method share to riseGlobal separator outp

43、ut share57%Global separator output share56%55%54%53%52%51%50%Exhibit 48. The price gap between wet and dry separators has narrowedRmb/sqm6.005.004.003.002.001.0020182019E2020EShare of wet separator0.00Oct-16 Apr-17 Oct-17 Apr-18 Oct-18 Apr-19 WetprocessDryprocessSource: Company data, HSBCQianhaiSecu

44、ritiesSource: Company data, HSBC QianhaiSecuritiesEquipment: LIB technology evolution means shorter equipment replacement cycles Webelieveequipmentsuppliers arepositionedtobenefitfrom theevolutionofLIBtechnology as it implies replacement and upgrading demand for equipment. Due to rapid evolution ofL

45、IBtechnology and manufacturing techniques in the last decade, the average replacement cycle of LIB equipment is just four years, well below the designed life span.Exhibit 49. Global chemical batterysenergy density: up 24% in the last decadeExhibit 50. The average replacement cycle of LIB equipment i

46、s just 4 yearsWh/Kg26021013510070454526021013510070454512Yr1010741010107486420LIBSolarExcavatorPlastic01960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2018equipmentequipmentinjection machineChemical batteryenergydensityAverage useful life (replacement cycle) of majorequipmentSource:HSBCestimatesSource: HSBC Qianhai S

47、ecuritiesestimatesCapacitor: Rising per vehicle power requirement positive fordemandWe believe the improvement in battery technology should give rise to greater EV penetration, especially for autos in the high horsepower category such as SUVs. Since capacitor demand has a positive correlation with t

48、he power output of the electric motor, rising power requirement should lift per vehicle capacitor demand.Heat management: To benefit from LIB technology evolutionLike capacitors, we expect heat management products to benefit from rising EV penetration, driven by the improvement of battery technology

49、. The value of heat management system on an EV is about 2.5x that of a comparable ICE vehicle.This page has been left blank intentionallyCompany sectionEve Energy (300014 CH)Largest primary Li battery maker in China, with c60% marketsharePotential listing of e-cigarette associate offers acatalystIni

50、tiate with a Buy rating and a TP ofRMB47.40Investment summaryMultiple earnings driversThe company is the largest primary lithium battery supplier in China with c60% market share. It is well positioned to benefit from the market upcycle in 2019-21, driven by the start of the smart meter replacement c

51、ycle and rising electronic toll collection (ETC) penetration. Moreover, we expect its LFP battery to see rising competitiveness against NCM, given the NEV subsidy cuts in China. We see a potential catalyst in the form of the potential listing of Smoore, a leading global e-cigarette ODM that is 37.5%

52、 held by Eve. According to a Securities Daily report of 17 September 2019, Smoore is plans to go public. Hong Kong-listed tobacco plays such as China Tobacco International (HK) (6055 HK) are trading at a 2019 PE of 53x. If we use this multiple to value Eves holdings of Smoore, the stake could be wor

53、th RMB50bn, well above Eves own market capitalisation of RMB32bn. Hence, we see the potential for opportunities to unlock value, should the listing take place.Exhibit 51. Eve: We expect earnings to rise at a 46% CAGR in 2018-21eExhibit 52. Eve: Revenue breakdown, 20180Rmb mn2016 2017 2018 2019E 2020

54、E 2021ENetprofitYoY80%60%40%20%0%PrimaryLithium28%Power battery26%Consumer electronics battery23%Utility-scale power storage 3%NCM cylindrical20%Source: Company data, HSBC Qianhai Securities (E = HSBC Qianhai Securities estimates)Source: Company data, HSBC Qianhai SecuritiesInvestment positivesLarge

55、st supplier of primary Li battery in ChinaEve is the largest producer of primary Li batteries in China, with c60% market share. These batteries are used in ETC cards, smart meters, and consumer electronics. Given its dominant market position, the gross margin for this product is 40% (Exhibit 55). We

56、 expect the business to see a robust 61% revenue CAGR in 2018-20e, thanks to the start of the smart meter replacement cycle and rising ETC penetration. The primary Li battery also has much faster payment terms than a power battery (Exhibit 57).Smart meters have a user-life of around eight years. Hen

57、ce, we expect the meters installed in 2014-15 to be replaced in 2022-23. Around 105m units of smart meters were tendered by the State Grid in 2014, almost double that in 2018. We therefore expect strong growth of smart meter tendering activity in 2019-22 (Exhibit 56). In addition, the Chinese govern

58、ment targets ETC penetration to increase from 45% in June 2019 to 90% in December 2019. This implies that 110m units of ETC cards need to be issued in 2H19. About 54m new cards have been issued y-t-d, most of them in 2H19, up 70% y-o-y. Eve has a c90% market share in primary Li battery installed on

59、ETC cards and the value of a primary Li battery is cRMB9/card. We hence expect the promotion of ETC on toll roads to contribute RMB0.9bn revenue to Eve in 2H19 (110m cards x RMB9/card x 90% market share), or 12% of its 2019e revenue.Exhibit 53. Three key types of primary Li batteriesLithium-Thionyl

60、ChlorideLithium-Manganese DioxideLithium-Iron DisulfideVoltage (v)3.63.01.5Energy Density420Wh/kg200Wh/kg300Wh/kgShelf-life (years)10-155-1010-15ApplicationsSmart meters,Surveillancedevices,ETC3C, RFID products3C, GPSSource: Company data, HSBC Qianhai SecuritiesExhibit 54. Eve: A cyclical ride for p