中美貿易摩擦升級

1、Cement and Construction Materials水泥建材Based on China Customs data in 2018, the US was the second largest importer of Chinese cement, only secondtoHong Kong. The export volume of cement is expected to drop after the tariff raise. in 2018, the export volume of cement only accounted for less than 0.1% o

2、f total cement output in China, so the overall impact would be On the other hand, if the Chinese government intends to offset the impact of tariff increases on economic growth by stimulating investment, the construction materials sector may benefit from increased demand from infrastructure construct

3、ion.2018 /2018 年全14 May 2019擊，則建材行業(yè)或將受惠于基建建設需求的增長。14 May 2019Consumer-Apparel消費-服裝Among Chinas exports of textilesandtextile products, the US contributed about 1/3. The amount of textiles and textile products affected by the tariff raise only accounts for 9.6% of US imports, which is equivalent to 3

4、.1% of Chinas total exports. Shoes and footwear products are not in the list of tariff raise. Therefore, the overallimpact will be relatively small.1/3 9.6%3.1%比較小。Consumer - Foods & Beverage消費-食品料Chinas increased tariffs on USimportedgoods will raise raw material costs for the food and beverage ind

5、ustry.中國提高美國貨物的進口關稅將抬高Market Strategy 市場策略Market Strategy 市場策略Consumer-Retailing消費-零售No significant impact on domesticretailsales, but may negatively affect luxury consumption indirectly.ElectricEquipment電力設備The total tariffed items from theelectricequipment sector exceeds US$ 50 bn in value, includ

6、ing nuclear reactors, boilers, machinery and mechanical appliances, electrical machinery and equipment and parts. We believe that the new tariffs imposed may lead to decline in US exports among major Chinese power equipment producers in the industry going forward.對國內零售影響不大，但可能會間接影 HYPERLINK / See th

7、e last page for disclaimerEnvironmental Protection HYPERLINK / See the last page for disclaimer環(huán)保A possible relaxation in monetarypolicy to hedge against the risk ofpossibleslowdown in economic growth can HYPERLINK / Market Strategy HYPERLINK / Market Strategy HYPERLINK / See the last page for discl

8、aimerbenefit environmental protection companies to gain new financing more easily as working capital or new investment. HYPERLINK / See the last page for disclaimerHealthCare醫(yī)藥The heating up of Sino-US tradefrictionwill have limited impact on Chinas healthcare sector, as pharmaceutical products expo

9、rted to the US only accounts for no more than 2.5% of the industrial output value of Chinas healthcare sector. Exports mainly consist of APIs and medical devices (most of which have been slapped with tariffs in the first batch) and therefore profit margin of corresponding manufacturers will suffer.

10、In addition, some domestic CMO/ CRO enterprises may also be affected, if they have business co-operations with pharmaceutical enterprises in the US.Infrastructure基建Domestic infrastructure investment might increase to hedge against a possible slowdown in economicgrowthdue to reduced international tra

11、de.Manufacturing工業(yè)制造IncreasedtariffswillreduceexporttotheUS market. exports amount for high-end manufacturing products to the US market is Domestic manufacturing companies might even benefit if trade war happens and if the RMB depreciates, this will help exports increase in other overseas markets. F

12、or imports, over 70% of parts areproduced domestically, while the keycomponents, such as are not sourced from the USmarket.Ports港口The increase in tariffs has alreadyhad an inhibitory effect on the export of Chinese goods. According todatareleased by China Customs, in the first four months of this Ch

13、inas exports to the United States fell by10.1%year-on-year, significantly lower than Chinas exports to other regions by2.5%. We expect to drag the domestic)，14 May 2019因此，相應生產(chǎn)企業(yè)的利潤率將承壓。另外，部分國內 CMO/ CRO 企業(yè)由于與美國醫(yī)藥企業(yè)存在商業(yè)合作，亦可能會受到一定影響。14 May 2019Market Strategy 市場策略70IBGTMarket Strategy 市場策略 HYPERLINK /

14、 Market Strategy2.5%2019 0.1-0.2 HYPERLINK / Market Strategy2019 throughput by 0.1-0.2 percentage points.ShippingandLogistics航運物流The increase in the tariff rate of200billion US dollars of goods in force may put further downward pressure on the external demand of related commodities. Such as electric

15、al equipment, machinery, tools and parts, furniture, vehicles and their parts, etc., to reduce the need for consolidation. On the other hand, China may cancel the import of agricultural products and natural gas to the United States, affecting the demand for bulk cargo transportation.2,000 Telecommun

16、ication Equipment通信設備Optical instruments are included intheU.S. tariff list, which will affect Sunny Optical. revenue from the U.S. only accounted for 2.1% of Sunny Opticals total revenue, thus theimpactwill be small.2.1% HYPERLINK / See the last page for disclaimer14 May 2019 HYPERLINK / See the la

17、st page for disclaimer14 May 2019Source: Guotai Junan International.Market Strategy 市場策略The United States intends to increase the scope of taxation on Chinese exports, among which the mobile phone industry, computer industry and toy industry may be hit. According to the statement from the US trade r

18、epresentatives, the US would impose tariffs on the remaining US$300 billion or so of goods on May 10. In 2018, according to data from the US Department of Commerce, Chinas exports to the US totaled US$539.5 billion. If the new tax policy is implemented, almost all Chinese exports to the US will face

19、 tariffs to varying degrees, considering the range of previous goods which have had tariffs imposed. Among the untaxed commodities, mobile phones, computers and toys are relatively large in scale, which will affect prosperity of related industries and their industrial chains and also impact American

20、Market Strategy 市場策略 HYPERLINK / Market Strategy5 10 3,0002018125,395 HYPERLINK / Market StrategyTop 10 imports from China which have not had tariffs imposed in the current dispute (USD bn)前 10 項未加征關稅的中國進口商品 (十億美元)11.938.744.8printers14 May 2019Plasticarticles14 May 2019TelephonesetpartsStorage devi

21、ces,e.g.USB drives,hard disksFlat pnel TVs smaller than 13.5 and VCR or other playerComputer monitors otherthandisplaysVideo game consolesWheeledtoys,puzzles,scale modelsLaptopsCellphonesSource: US International Trade Commission,Bloomberg.01020304050 HYPERLINK / See the last page for disclaimer HYPE

22、RLINK / See the last page for disclaimerMarket Strategy 市場策略Foreign trade is faced with risk of downward pressure; the fundamentals of Chinas economy remains stable from a long-term perspective. In the first quarter of 2019, net exports of goods and services contributed 22.8% to YoY GDP growth and c

23、ontributed -8.6% in 2018. This round of trade friction will have negative impacts on Chinas export data, which will also drag down Chinas economic growth. Chinas export structure has continued to be optimized and its exports scale to ASEAN and One Belt and One Road countries is increasing. Theshareo

24、fmerchandiseexportedtotheUShasdeclinedsteadily.ChinasshareoftotalexportstotheUSfellto 16.4%inApril2019,2.8percentagepointslowerthan thatofthewholeyearof2018.Theshocktoexportswillbe somewhat less severe thanMarket Strategy 市場策略2019 1 GDP 22.8%，2018 年則貢獻-8.6%2019 4 16.4%， 20182.8WeexpecttheHongKongsto

25、ckmarkettoexperiencedownwardpressureintheshortterm.Thedeclinein scale of exports may lead to the narrowing of trade surplus and the RMB exchange rate may face short-term pressure. However, the recent countercyclical policy adjustments and deepening reform policy in the mainland have gradually taken

26、effect and signs of improvements in the economy of China continued. We expect the trade agreement between China and the US to be in the interest of both sides, but the escalation of short-term friction will still impact risk appetite among investors. We expect the Hong Kong stock market to experienc

27、e downward pressure in the shortterm. HYPERLINK / Market Strategy預計港股短期內有下行壓力。 HYPERLINK / Market Strategy HYPERLINK / Chapter HYPERLINK / Chapter and manufactured tobacco s HYPERLINK / See the last page for disclaimerMerchandise catalogue for Chinese exports to US according to HS classifications (U

28、SD thousand)按照 HS 分類中國對美國出口商品行業(yè)分類數(shù)據(jù)（千美元）占比中國對美出口占比中國對美出口總額出口比例（The proportion of Chinas total exports to the United States）2018年對美占中國總出出口總額HS類別比例（The proportionofexportsto USChinas totalin 2018）exports inHScategory）14 May 20192,060,41311.58%0.43%35,0276.44%0.01%14 May 20192,060,41311.58%0.43%35,0276

29、.44%0.01%3,1820.37%0.00%1,730,60913.05%0.36%16,1482.74%0.00%275,44710.87%0.06%1,535,2595.99%0.32%52,45213.83%0.01%600,7125.71%0.13%162,7793.08%0.03%238,8637.19%0.05%1,7960.19%0.00%11,2781.42%0.00%172,6746.35%0.04%284,35718.61%0.06%10,3488.10%0.00%88,2978.07%0.02%88,2978.07%0.02%4,389,12313.27%0.92%1

30、,560,31115.22%0.33%199,55710.88%0.04%42,65610.57%0.01%215,15810.88%0.04%1,233,04915.31%0.26%564,40515.38%0.12%85,9973.63%0.02%473,59215.19%0.10%14,3961.02%0.00%Section I:Live Animals; Animal Products 01 章 活動物Chapter 1 Live animals02 章 肉及食用雜碎Chapter 2 Meat and edible meat offal 03 章 魚及其它水生無脊椎動物Chapte

31、r 3 Fish and crustaceans, molluscs and other aquatic invertebrates04 章 乳;蛋;蜂蜜;其他食用動物產(chǎn)品Chapter 4 Dairy produce; birds eggs; natural honey; edible products of animal origin, not elsewhere specified or included 05 章 其他動物產(chǎn)品Chapter 5 Products of animal origin, not elsewhere specified or included第 2 類 植物產(chǎn)

32、品Section II: Vegetable Products 06 章 活植物;莖、根;插花、簇葉Chapter 6 Live trees and other plants; bulbs, roots and the like; cutflowers and ornamental foliage 07 章 食用蔬菜、根及塊莖Chapter 7 Edible vegetables and certain roots and tubers;Chapter8Ediblefruit and nuts; peel of citrus fruit ormelonsChapter 10 Cereals;面

33、筋Chapter 11 Products of the milling industry; malt; starches; inulin; wheat gluten;子仁;飼料Market Strategy 市場策略Chapter 12 Oil seeds and oleaginous fruits; miscellaneous grains, seeds and fruits; industrial or medicinal plants; straw and fodder 13 章 蟲膠;Market Strategy 市場策略Chapter 13 Lac; gums, resins an

34、d other vegetable saps and extracts;Chapter 14 Vegetable plaiting materials; vegetable products not elsewhere specified or included第 3 類 動、植物油、脂、蠟;精制食用油脂Section III: Animal or Vegetable Fats and Oils and Their Cleavage Products; Prepared Edible Fats; Animal or Vegetable Waxes;Chapter 15Animal or veg

35、etable fats and oils and their cleavage products prepared edible fats; animal or vegetable waxes第 4 類 食品;飲料、酒及醋;煙草及制品Section IV: Prepared Foodstuffs; Beverages, Spirits, and Vinegar; Tobacco and Manufactured Tobacco SubstitutesChapter16Preparations of meat, of fish or of crustaceans, molluscs or oth

36、er aquatic invertebratesChapter 17 Sugars and sugar confectionery 18 章 可可及可可制品Chapter 18 Cocoa and cocoapreparations;Chapter 19Preparationsof cereals, starch or milk; bakerswaresChapter 20Preparations of vegetables, fruit, nuts or other parts of plants HYPERLINK / Market Strategy HYPERLINK / Market

37、StrategyChapter 21 Miscellaneous edible preparations 22 章飲料、酒及醋Chapter 22 Beverages, spirits and vinegar;Chapter23Residues and waste from the food industries; prepared animalfeedubstitutes HYPERLINK / and Articles Thereof HYPERLINK / See the last page for disclaimer HYPERLINK / and Articles Thereof

38、HYPERLINK / See the last page for disclaimer1,705,5603.32%0.36%461,01412.27%0.10%18,6551.58%0.00%1,225,8912.64%0.26%16,734,17312.21%3.50%1,502,8417.39%0.31%9,120,64915.25%1.91%1,475,41716.65%0.31%40,9600.58%0.01%613,5087.86%0.13%1,387,75524.62%0.29%446,83410.80%0.09%269,5128.80%0.06%318,18231.92%0.0

39、7%28,2842.50%0.01%1,530,2308.41%0.32%21,985,24921.38%4.60%18,341,14522.78%3.83%3,644,10416.34%0.76%7,129,47720.43%1.49%24,8403.88%0.01%7,053,07923.56%1.47%51,5591.20%0.01%4,285,73825.89%0.90%3,889,88726.07%0.81%6,36224.87%0.00%389,49024.27%0.08%4,787,73220.25%1.00%第 5 類 礦產(chǎn)品Section V:Mineral Products

40、章鹽;硫磺;Chapter 25 Salt; sulfur; earths and stone; plastering materials, lime and cementChapter 26 Ores, slag and ash14 May 2019;瀝青等14 May 2019Chapter 27 Mineral fuels, mineral oils and products of their distillation; bituminous substances; mineral waxes第 6 類 化學工業(yè)及其相關工業(yè)的產(chǎn)品Section VI: Products of the C

41、hemical or Allied Industries 28 章 無機化學品;貴金屬等的化合物Chapter 28 Inorganic chemicals; organic or inorganic compounds of precious metals, of rare-earth metals, of radioactive elements orof isotopes29 章 有機化學品Chapter 29 Organic chemicals 30 章 藥品Chapter 30Pharmaceutical productsChapter 31 Fertilizers;Chapter

42、32 Tanning or dyeing extracts; dyes, pigments, paints, varnishes, putty and mastics;Chapter33Essential oils and resinoids; cosmetic or toilet preparationsChapter 34 Soap, organic surface-active agents, washing preparations, lubricating preparations, artificial waxes, prepared waxes, polishing or sco

43、uring preparations, candles and similar articles, modeling pastes, dental waxes and dental preparations with a basis of plaster;酶Chapter 35 Albuminoidal substances; modified starches; glues; enzymes;煙火;Chapter 36 Explosives; pyrotechnic products; matches; pyrophoric alloys; certain combustible prepa

44、rationsChapter 37 Photographic or cinematographic goods 38 章 雜項化學產(chǎn)品Market Strategy 市場策略Market Strategy 市場策略第 7 類 塑料及其制品;橡膠及其制品Section VII: Plastics and Articles Thereof Rubber and Articles Thereof39Chapter 39 Plastics and articles thereof 40Chapter 40 Rubber and articlesthereof8類 革、毛皮及制品;箱包;腸線制品Sect

45、ion VIII: Raw Hides and Skins, Leather, Fur skins and Articles Thereof; Saddlery and Harness; Travel Goods, Handbags and Similar Containers; Articles of Animal Gut (Other Than Silkworm Gut)41 章 生皮(毛皮除外)及皮革Chapter 41 Raw hides and skins (other than fur skins) and leather 42 章 皮革制品;旅行箱包;動物腸線制品Chapter

46、42 Articles of leather; saddlery and harness; travel goods,handbags and similar containers; articles of animal gut (other than silkworm gut)Chapter 43 Fur skins and artificial fur; manufactures thereof第 9 類 木及制品;木炭;軟木;編結品Section IX: Wood and Articles of Wood; Wood Charcoal; Cork and Articles of Cork

47、; Manufacturers of Straw, of Esparto or of Other Plaiting Materials; Basket ware and Wickerwork;木炭Chapter 44 Wood and articles of wood; wood charcoal 45 章 軟木及軟木制品 HYPERLINK / Market Strategy HYPERLINK / Market Strategy;of esparto or of other plaiting materials; basket ware andwickerwork第 10 類 木漿等;廢紙

48、;紙、紙板及其制品Section X: Pulp of Wood or of Other Fibrous Cellulosic Material; Waste and Scrap of Paper or Paperboard; Paper and Paperboard;Chapter 47 Pulp of wood or of other fibrous cellulosic material; waste and scrap of paper or paperboard;Chapter 48 Paper and paperboard; articles of paper pulp, of p

49、aper or of paperboard;14 May 2019Chapter 49 Printed books, newspapers, pictures and other productsoftheprintingindustrymanuscriptstypescriptsandplans 14 May 2019Section XI: Textile and Textile Articles 50 章 蠶絲Chapter 50Silk;Chapter 51Wool, fine or coarse animal hair; horsehair yarn and woven fabricC

50、hapter 52Cotton;Chapter 53Other vegetable textile fibers; paper yarn and woven fabric of paper yarnChapter 54Man-made filaments 55 章 化學纖維短纖Chapter 55Man-made staple fibers;Chapter 56 Wadding, felt and nonwovens; special yarns,twine, cordage, ropes and cables and articlesthereofChapter 57 Carpets and

51、 other textile floor coverings 58 章 特種機織物;簇絨織物;刺繡品等Chapter 58 Special woven fabrics; tufted textile fabrics; lace, tapestries; trimmings; embroidery;Chapter 59 Impregnated, coated, covered or laminated textile fabrics; textile articles of a kind suitable for industrial useChapter 60 Knitted or croch

52、eted fabrics 61 章 針織或鉤編的服裝及衣著附件Chapter 61 Articles of apparel and clothing accessories, knitted orcrochetedMarket Strategy 市場策略Market Strategy 市場策略;Chapter 63 Other made up textile articles; sets; worn clothing and worn textile articles; rags第 12 類 鞋帽傘等;已加工的羽毛及其制品;人造花;人發(fā)制品Section XII :Footwear, Head

53、gear, Umbrellas, Sun Umbrellas, Walking Sticks, Seat sticks, Whips, Riding-Crops and Parts Thereof; Prepared Feathers and Articles Made Therewith; Artificial Flowers; Articles of Human HairChapter 64 Footwear, gaiters and the like; parts of such articles 65 章 帽類及其零件Chapter 65 Headgear and parts ther

54、eofChapter 66 Umbrellas, sun umbrellas, walking sticks, seat sticks, whips, riding-crops and parts thereof;Chapter 67 Prepared feathers and down and articles made of feathers or of down; artificial flowers; articles of human hair 13;陶瓷品;玻璃及制品Section XIII: Articles of Stone, Plaster, Cement, Asbestos

55、, Mica or Similar Materials; Ceramic Products; Glass and GlasswareChapter 68 Articles of stone, plaster, cement, asbestos, mica or similar materials HYPERLINK / Market StrategyChapter 69 Ceramic products 70 HYPERLINK / Market StrategyChapter 70Glass and glassware第 14 類 珠寶、貴金屬及制品;仿首飾;硬幣Section Natura

56、l or Cultured Pearls, Precious or Semiprecious Stones, Precious Metals, Metals Clad With Precious Metal, and Articles Thereof; Imitation Jewelry;Coin71;硬幣 HYPERLINK / Chapter 71Natural or cultured pearls, precious o stones, precious metals, metals clad with precio HYPERLINK / See the last page for d

57、isclaimer HYPERLINK / Chapter 71Natural or cultured pearls, precious o stones, precious metals, metals clad with precio HYPERLINK / See the last page for disclaimer5,4464.07%0.00%3,355,25617.10%0.70%1,427,03036.67%0.30%45,810,29817.14%9.58%33,7222.96%0.01%35,3491.43%0.01%320,8032.09%0.07%31,2692.24%

58、0.01%787,6603.84%0.16%524,7334.13%0.11%753,39613.10%0.16%703,47223.59%0.15%377,4377.40%0.08%655,0668.14%0.14%643,1903.54%0.13%17,617,78323.91%3.68%14,535,61420.21%3.04%8,790,80531.51%1.84%16,681,44426.91%3.49%12,100,01325.52%2.53%1,353,07828.81%0.28%522,62219.11%0.11%2,705,73037.77%0.57%8,706,39616.

59、65%1.82%2,361,39018.81%0.49%3,220,93414.13%0.67%3,124,07218.42%0.65%3,140,03315.41%0.66%3,140,03315.41%0.66%24,744,00313.20%5.17%24,744,00313.20%5.17%673,1451.43%0.14%11,811,34817.84%2.47%523,3827.52%0.11%31,6176.93%0.01%3,207,51311.83%0.67%4,4933.39%0.00%42,47116.84%0.01%5290.71%0.00%548,45313.86%0

60、.11%4,034,08724.54%0.84%3,866,96520.53%0.81%222,188,26620.28%46.44%102,816,52823.87%21.49%119,371,73817.95%24.95%23,001,45519.45%4.81%3,602,87127.14%0.75%18,055,90124.02%3.77%1,180,28625.34%0.25%162,3980.65%0.03%11,530,03314.78%2.41%10,539,82314.74%2.20%495,84310.29%0.10%494,36730.04%0.10%96,57558.5