excel股票估值公司估值模型(dcf估值、ddm估值、apv估值、ae估值、eva估值)(推薦文檔)

一般情景預測公司名稱久聯(lián)發(fā)展代碼002037分析日期2006/05/29流通A股4,000.00流通B股總股本11,000.00A股股價6.03B股股價Word模板指標輸出2004A2005A2006E2007E主營收入（萬元）39,827.0047,847.0053,092.4062,408.39主營收入增長率15.66%20.14%10.96%17.55%EBITDA（萬元）5,792.007,869.0011,598.7315,778.87EBITDA增長率19.60%35.86%47.40%36.04%凈利潤（萬元）3,068.003,522.005,826.708,491.50凈利潤增長率0.39%14.80%65.44%45.73%ROE7.36%8.56%13.23%17.59%EPS（元）0.2790.3200.5300.772P/E21.6218.8311.387.81P/B1.591.611.511.37EV/EBITDA7.425.863.992.81估值結果匯總估值方法估值結果估值區(qū)間FCFF17.2015.55－21.29FCFE9.278.49－10.89DDM6.265.68－7.49APV15.7013.28－17.75AE9.879.31－11.04EVA13.2012.01－16.15EVAAEAPVDDMFCFEFCFF0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.002003200420052006EEBIT4,843.005,028.006,641.009,647.42EBITDA4,843.005,792.007,869.0011,598.73所得稅率20.01%22.62%26.14%24.38%NOPLAT3,873.713,890.904,905.077,295.62IC18,700.0021,897.0025,786.0030,293.13Ve42,210.0066,330.0066,330.0066,330.00Vd8,800.006,750.008,340.0011,721.45WACC9.20%9.69%9.57%9.34%EV44,977.0042,961.0046,077.0046,323.84業(yè)績表現(xiàn) 2003 2004 2005 2006E收入增長率15.66%20.14%10.96%凈利潤增長率0.39%14.80%65.44%EBITDA增長率19.60%35.86%47.40%EBIT增長率3.82%32.08%45.27%主營業(yè)務利潤率33.99%29.60%35.17%37.68%EBITDAMargin(%)17.60%25.90%71.10%ROE22.94%7.36%8.56%13.23%ROIC20.72%17.77%19.02%24.08%ROIC－WACC11.52%8.08%9.45%14.75%價值比率2003200420052006EP/E21.7021.6218.8311.38EV/收入1.311.080.960.87EV/EBITDA9.297.425.863.99EV/EBIT9.298.546.944.80EV/NOPLAT11.6111.049.396.35EV/IC2.411.961.791.53P/B3.171.591.611.51DividendYield(%)0.00%0.00%5.80%4.39%每股指標2003200420052006E報表EPS0.280.280.320.53經(jīng)常性EPS每股紅利0.000.000.350.26每股經(jīng)營現(xiàn)金流0.80每股凈資產(chǎn)1.903.793.744.00流動性2003200420052006E凈負債/權益0.21(0.56)(0.49)(0.45)總負債/總資產(chǎn)50.37%24.35%30.28%34.06%流動比率1.202.972.131.99速動比率1.112.811.981.87輸出到Word模板中的三張表（輸出2004-2008年）利潤表（萬元）200420052006E增長率%主營業(yè)務收入39,827.0047,847.0053,092.4010.96%主營業(yè)務利潤11,387.0016,320.0019,455.8119.21%其他業(yè)務利潤220.00186.0050.00-73.12%營業(yè)費用1,194.001,576.001,670.235.98%管理費用5,385.008,289.008,188.16-1.22%財務費用213.0077.00144.5387.70%營業(yè)利潤4,815.006,564.009,502.8944.77%投資收益(55.00)(38.00)0.00N/A利潤總額4,833.006,450.009,472.8946.87%凈利潤3,068.003,522.005,826.7065.44%NOPLAT3,890.904,905.077,295.6248.74%資產(chǎn)負債表（萬元）200420052206E增長率%流動資產(chǎn)43,008.0042,714.0048,406.1313.33%貨幣資金30,119.0028,593.0031,727.6110.96%短期投資0.000.000.00N/A應收帳款6,130.00其他應收款1,800.00存貨2,382.00長期投資489.00固定資產(chǎn)9,915.00無形資產(chǎn)7,070.00總資產(chǎn)60,482.00無息負債7,730.00有息負債6,750.00少數(shù)股東權益4,063.00股東權益41,692.00凈營運資本28,528.00投入資本IC21,897.00現(xiàn)金流量表（萬元）2004凈利潤3,068.00折舊攤銷764.00凈營運資金增加25,199.00經(jīng)營活動產(chǎn)生現(xiàn)金流1,372.00投資活動產(chǎn)生現(xiàn)金流(3,986.00)融資活動產(chǎn)生現(xiàn)金流4,458.00現(xiàn)金凈增（減）1,844.00指標說明：EV=股權價值+債權價值—現(xiàn)金EBITDA ＝EBIT＋折舊＋攤銷EBIT ＝營業(yè)利潤＋財務費用

5,831.007,321.0025.55%1,710.001,897.4610.96%3,146.003,083.33-1.99%489.00598.0022.29%18,951.0023,456.8823.78%4,572.004,114.80-10.00%66,895.0077,174.8115.37%11,667.0012,566.087.71%8,340.0011,721.4540.54%5,515.006,851.9424.24%41,122.0044,035.357.08%22,707.0024,118.616.22%25,786.0030,293.1317.48%20052006E增長率%3,522.005,826.7065.44%1,228.001,951.3258.90%(5,821.00)1,411.61N/A4,894.008,801.0479.83%(1,156.00)(5,990.00)N/A(4,756.00)323.57N/A(1,018.00)3,134.61N/ANOPLAT ＝EBIT×（1－所得稅率）＝ EBIT－所得稅（只考慮核心業(yè)務，扣除非經(jīng)常性損益）IC（investedcapital）＝股東權益＋長期借款＋短期借款＋應付債券＋少數(shù)股東權益－現(xiàn)金－短期投資－長期投資ROIC＝NOPLAT/IC×100％OPFCF＝EBITDA －稅收－凈資本性支出－ 營運資本的增加WACC＝[(Ke×Ve)＋（Kd×Vd）]/(Ve＋Vd)Kd＝債務成本 ＝平均債務利率（ 1－稅率）＝（短期借款×短期借款利率＋長期借款×長期借款利率＋長期應付債券×長期（1－所得稅率）Ve＝股本價值＝股價×總股本 （ H股、B股按各自股價×匯率轉換為人民幣計算，非流通股按 A股計算）Vd＝債務價值＝短期借款＋長期借款＋應付債券Ke＝Rf+β(Rm－Rf)營運資本 ＝流動資產(chǎn) －流動負債公司自由現(xiàn)金流 FCFF＝EBIT×（1-所得稅率）＋折舊－資本支出－非現(xiàn)金性流動資本變化股權資本自由現(xiàn)金流 FCFE＝稅前利潤×（1-所得稅率）＋折舊－資本支出－非現(xiàn)金性流動資本變化＋新增債務－債務償還0.00流通H股0.000.00H股股價0.002008E75,287.3020.64%19,873.3725.95%11,183.2931.70%20.76%1.0175.931.231.97敏感度分析區(qū)間貼現(xiàn)率±1%，長期增長率±1%5.74貼現(xiàn)率±1%，長期增長率±1%2.39貼現(xiàn)率±1%，長期增長率±1%1.80貼現(xiàn)率±1%，長期增長率±1%4.47貼現(xiàn)率±1%，長期增長率±1%1.73貼現(xiàn)率±1%，長期增長率±1%4.132007E 2008E13,480.62 17,311.6515,778.87 19,873.3724.38% 24.38%10,194.39 13,091.5134,018.19 36,013.1866,330.00 66,330.0015,297.29 17,779.269.11% 8.96%44,332.51 39,118.152007E 2008E17.55% 20.64%45.73% 31.70%36.04% 25.95%39.73% 28.42%41.12% 42.46%44.87% 31.79%17.59% 20.76%29.97% 36.35%20.86% 27.39%2007E2008E7.815.930.710.522.811.973.292.264.352.991.301.091.371.236.40%8.43%2007E2008E0.771.020.390.511.051.294.394.902007E2008E(0.46)(0.51)35.87%36.39%1.921.991.801.872007E增長率%2008E增長率%62,408.3917.55%75,287.3020.64%25,018.8428.59%31,191.2824.67%50.000.00%100.00100.00%1,963.3117.55%2,368.4620.64%9,624.9217.55%11,611.1620.64%277.1191.74%354.1827.81%13,203.5038.94%16,957.4828.43%0.00N/A0.00N/A13,173.5039.07%16,927.4828.50%8,491.5045.73%11,183.2931.70%10,194.3939.73%13,091.5128.42%2007E增長率%2008E增長率%56,926.1817.60%68,660.2620.61%37,294.7817.55%44,991.1120.64%0.00N/A0.00N/A10,836.0048.01%13,072.1820.64%1,897.460.00%2,690.6941.80%3,424.0811.05%4,036.6317.89%588.00-1.67%588.000.00%26,615.8313.47%27,511.313.36%3,657.60-11.11%3,200.40-12.50%88,269.6114.38%100,314.9713.65%14,368.6414.34%16,722.6916.38%15,297.2930.51%17,779.2616.22%8,322.5821.46%9,940.2819.44%48,281.109.64%53,872.7511.58%27,260.2513.03%34,158.3125.30%34,018.1912.30%36,013.185.86%2007E增長率%2008E增長率%8,491.5045.73%11,183.2931.70