公司理財(cái)原書第七版第三章財(cái)務(wù)計(jì)劃與增長課件

CHAPTER3FinancialPlanningandGrowth0ChapterOutline3.1WhatisFinancialPlanning?3.2AFinancialPlanningModel:TheIngredients3.3ThePercentageSalesMethod3.4WhatDeterminesGrowth?3.5SomeCaveatsofFinancialPlanningModels3.6SummaryandConclusions13.1WhatisCorporateFinancialPlanning?Itformulatesthemethodbywhichfinancialgoalsaretobeachieved.Therearetwodimensions:ATimeFrameShortrunisprobablyanythinglessthanayear.Longrunisanythingoverthat;usuallytakentobeatwo-yeartofive-yearperiod.ALevelofAggregationEachdivisionandoperationalunitshouldhaveaplan.Asthecapital-budgetinganalysesofeachofthefirm’sdivisionsareaddedup,thefirmaggregatesthesesmallprojectsasabigproject.23.1WhatisCorporateFinancialPlanning?ScenarioAnalysisEachdivisionmightbeaskedtopreparethreedifferentplansfortheneartermfuture:AWorstCaseANormalCaseABestCase3WhatWillthePlanningProcessAccomplish?InteractionsTheplanmustmakeexplicitthelinkagesbetweeninvestmentproposalsandthefirm’sfinancingchoices.OptionsTheplanprovidesanopportunityforthefirmtoweighitsvariousoptions.FeasibilityAvoidingSurprisesNobodyplanstofail,butmanyfailtoplan.43.2AFinancialPlanningModel:

TheIngredientsSalesforecastProformastatementsAssetrequirementsFinancialrequirementsPlugEconomicassumptions5SalesForecastAllfinancialplansrequireasalesforecast.Perfectforeknowledgeisimpossiblesincesalesdependontheuncertainfuturestateoftheeconomy.Businessesthatspecializeinmacroeconomicandindustryprojectscanbehelpinestimatingsales.6ProFormaStatementsThefinancialplanwillhaveaforecastbalancesheet,aforecastincomestatement,andaforecastsources-and-uses-of-cashstatement.Thesearecalledproformastatementsorproformas.7AssetRequirementsThefinancialplanwilldescribeprojectedcapitalspending.Inadditionitwilldiscusstheproposedusesofnetworkingcapital.8FinancialRequirementsTheplanwillincludeasectiononfinancingarrangements.Dividendpolicyandcapitalstructurepolicyshouldbeaddressed.Ifnewfundsaretoberaised,theplanshouldconsiderwhatkindsofsecuritiesmustbesoldandwhatmethodsofissuancearemostappropriate.9PlugCompatibilityacrossvariousgrowthtargetswillusuallyrequireadjustmentinathirdvariable.Supposeafinancialplannerassumesthatsales,costs,andnetincomewillriseatg1.Further,supposethattheplannerdesiresassetsandliabilitiestogrowatadifferentrate,g2.Thesetworatesmaybeincompatibleunlessathirdvariableisadjusted.Forexample,compatibilitymayonlybereachedisoutstandingstockgrowsatathirdrate,g3.Readexampleonp46-4710EconomicAssumptionsTheplanmustexplicitlystatetheeconomicenvironmentinwhichthefirmexpectstoresideoverthelifeoftheplan.Interestrateforecastsarepartoftheplan.11TheStepsinEstimationofProFormaBalanceSheet:(p50)Expressbalance-sheetitemsthatvarywithsalesasapercentageofsales.Multiplythepercentagesdetermineinstep1byprojectedsalestoobtaintheamountforthefutureperiod.Whennopercentageapplies,simplyinsertthepreviousbalance-sheetfigureintothefutureperiod.12TheStepsinEstimationofProFormaBalanceSheet:(continued)Presentretainedearnings+Projectednetincome–CashdividendsProjectedretainedearningsAddtheassetaccountstodetermineprojectedassets.Next,addtheliabilitiesandequityaccountstodeterminethetotalfinancing;anydifferenceistheshortfall.Thisequalstheexternalfundsneeded.UsetheplugtofillEFN.ComputerProjectedretainedearningsas13ABriefExampleTheRosengartenCorporationisthinkofacquiringanewmachine.Themachinewillincreasesalesfrom$20millionto$22million—10%growth.Thefirmbelievesthatitsassetsandliabilitiesgrowdirectlywithitslevelofsales.Itsprofitmarginonsalesis10%,anditsdividend-payoutratiois50%.Willthefirmbeabletofinancegrowthinsaleswithretainedearningsandforecastincreasesindebt?14ABriefExampleCurrentBalanceSheetProformaBalanceSheet

(millions)

ExplanationCurrentassets$6(6/20=30%)$6.6(22*30%)30%ofsalesFixedassets$24$26.4120%ofsalesTotalassets$30$33150%ofsalesShort-termdebt$10$1150%ofsalesLong-termdebt$6$6.630%ofsalesCommonstock$4$4ConstantRetainedEarnings$10$11.1(10+2.2-2.2*50%)NetIncomeTotalfinancing$30$32.7

$0.3Fundsneeded(millions)15ThePercentageSalesMethod:EFNTheexternalfundsneededfora10%growthinsales:p=Netprofitmargin=0.10d=Dividendpayoutratio=0.5DSales=Projectedchangeinsales=$2million16ThePercentageSalesMethod:EFNTheexternalfundsneeded173.4WhatDeterminesGrowth?Firmsfrequentlymakegrowthforecastsonexplicitpartoffinancialplanning.Ontheotherhand,thefocusofthiscoursehasbeenonshareholderwealthmaximization,oftenexpressedthroughtheNPVcriterion.Onewaytoreconcilethetwoistothinkofgrowthasanintermediategoalthatleadstohighervalue.Alternatively,ifthefirmiswillingtoacceptnegativeNPVprojectsjusttogrowinsize,theshareholders(butnotnecessarilythemangers)willbeworseoff.183.3WhatDeterminesGrowth?Thereisalinkagebetweentheabilityofafirmtogrowanditsfinancialpolicywhenthefirmdoesnotissueequity.TheSustainableGrowthRateinSalesisgivenby:19Changeinassets=changeindebt+changeinequityCapitalspending=newequity+newdebtT⊿S=S1*p*(1-d)+S1*p*(1-d)*D/ES1=S0+⊿ST=A/S20TheSustainable

GrowthRateinSalesT=ratiooftotalassetstosalesp=netprofitmarginonsalesd=dividendpayoutratio21EXAMPLEonp52-53p=1650/10,000=0.165d=1,195/1,650=0.724,(1-d)=1-0.724=0.276L=5000/5000=1T=10,000/10,000=1⊿S/S0=0.165*0.276*(1+1)/[1-0.165*0.276*(1+1)]=0.122UsesoftheSustainableGrowthRateAcommerciallenderwouldwanttocompareapotentialborrower’sactualgrowthratewiththeirsustainablegrowthrate.Iftheactualgrowthrateismuchhigherthanthesustainablegrowthrate,theborrowerrunstheriskof“growingbroke”andanylendingmustbeviewedasadownpaymentonamuchmorecomprehensivelendingarrangementthanjustoneroundoffinancing.23IncreasingtheSustainable

GrowthRateAfirmcandoseveralthingstoincreaseitssustainablegrowthrate:SellnewsharesofstockIncreaseitsrelianceondebtReduceitsdividend-payoutratioIncreaseprofitmarginsDecreaseitsasset-requirementratio243.5SomeCaveatsofFinancialPlanningModelsFinancialplanningmodelsdonotindicatewhichfinancialpolicesarethebest.Theyareoftensimplificationsofreality—andtheworldcanchangeinunexpectedways.Withoutsomesortofplan,thefirmmayfinditselfadriftinaseaofchangewithoutarudderforguidance.25Summary&ConclusionsFinancialplanningforcesthefirmtothinkaboutandforecastthefuture.ItinvolvesBuildingacorporatefinancialmodel.Describingdifferentscenariosoffuturedevelopmentfrombesttoworstcase.Usingthemodelstoconstructproformafinancialstatements.Runningthemodelunderdifferentscenarios(sensitivityanalysis).Examiningthefinancialimplicationsofultimatestrategicplans.26Summary&ConclusionsCorporatefinancialplanningshouldnotbecomeanendinanofitself.Ifitdoes,itwillprobablyfocusonthewrongthings.Thealternativetofinancialplanningisstumblingintothefuture.27MultipleChoice

1.Theprocessofcombiningsmallerprojectsintoalargebudgetforplanningpurposesiscalled A) aggregation. B) consolidation. C) assumption. D) capitalallocation. E) Noneoftheabove.28Answer:A292.Projectedfuturefinancialstatementsarecalled A) plugstatements. B) proformastatements. C) reconciledstatements. D) aggregatedstatements. E) noneoftheabove.30Answer:B313.Thepercentageofsalesmethod A) requiresthatallaccountsgrowatthesamerate. B) separatesaccountsthatvarywithsalesandthosethatdonotvarywithsales. C) allowstheanalysttocalculatehowmuchfinancingthefirmwillneedtosupportthepredictedsaleslevel. D) BothAandB. E) BothBandC.32Answer:E334.Anexampleofaneconomicassumptionwouldbe A) growthinsales. B) growthinthecapitalspendingrequirement. C) aplugvariable. D) changeininterestrates. E) growthindividends.34Answer:D355.Accountsreceivableare$45,000andaredirectlyproportionaltototalsales.Thesalesforecastfornextyearis$125,000,whichrepresentsa5%growthoverthecurrentyear.Theforecastaccountsreceivablewouldbe A) $42,750 B) $45,000 C) $47,250 D) Itisimpossibletocalculatewithoutlastyear'screditsales. E) Noneoftheabove.36Answer:C Rationale: $45,000(1.05)=$47,250376.Financialplanningmodelsfrequentlyassumethatmanyvariablesareproportionalto A) economicgrowth. B) industrygrowth. C) interestrates. D) companysales. E) Noneoftheabove.38Answer:D397.Ifforecastednetincomeis$3,600andtheexpecteddividendis$1,098andthetaxrateis34%,whatistheretentionratio? A) .198 B) .30 C) .70 D) .802 E) Noneoftheabove.40Answer:C Rationale: 1-($1,098/$3,600)=1-.3=.7418.Lastyear,RamCompanyreportedthefollowingfinancialdata:Sales=$400,Costs=$200,Taxes=$50,NetIncome=$150,TotalAssets=$1,200,Debt=$600,andEquity=$600.Assetsandcostsareproportionaltosales.Debtisnot.Adividendof$90waspaid,andRamwishestomaintainaconstantpayouttonetincome.Nextyear'ssalesareprojectedtobe$480.Whatareexternalfundsneeded(EFN)? A) $240 B) $132 C)