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StartupDemographicsAstandardizedframeworkformeasuringstartupactivityintechecosystems.15August2023AI

generated

image

titled

“Procrastination”

made

withMidjourney.

Prompt:

on

a

light

blue

canvas,

a

realistic

optimisticpainting,

using

vibrant

colours,

of

a

rocket

launching

on

theright

side,

with

a

sunrise

on

the

background

--ar

2:1Startup

Demographics.Why

it

matters.Data

aboutstartupecosystemsmostlyfocusesontheamountofventurecapitalinvested,thenumberofunicorns,et

cetera.1.

Startupscreate

economic

growth

throughinnovation,knowledgeandjobs2.

Startupscreate

wealth

fortheirfounders,Startup

Demographicslooksat

startupbirthrates,

survivalrates,

andsuccessrates.(early)employeesandinvestors3.

Startup

success(andfailure)creates

positivespillover

e?ects

intomoreentrepreneurialactivityThisreportaimsto

broadenthesetofusefulmetricsformeasuringandbenchmarkingactivityinstartuptechecosystems.Secondly,

itproposesastandardizedframeworkfor

trackingstartupprogress.4.

Startups?productsandservicesprovideconsumerswithgreater

choices5.

Manystartupsaddressglobal

challengesWewelcomefeedbackto

thisreport.Wewillworkcloselywithourecosystemdevelopmentpartnerswithimplementingandperfectingthisapproach.(climate,health,education)6.

Enablingcountriesto

buildindependentcriticaltechinfrastructure:tech

sovereigntyPage

/2

Source:Dealroom.co1.2.

Thestartup

journey3.

Startup

demographicsVC-backed

tech

companies

dominatetoday?s

corporate

landscape

...…

and

have

created

the

vast

majorityof

wealth

in

the

last

two

decades.▊

VC-backedtechcompanies

▊

Non-techApple(1976)Micr$2.7T$2.3T$2.0T$1.3T$1.2T$1.0T$0.8T$0.6T$0.5T$0.5TSaudiAramco(1933)Alphabet(1998)Amazon(1994)Nvidia(1993)BerkshireHathaway(1965)Meta(2004)Johnson&Johnson(1886)Tesla

(2003)Page

/4There

are

currently

about

150K

companies

on

a

VC-backed

journey.

Roughly

1%

ofVC-backed

startups

reach

$1B+

valuation

while

17

have

reached

$100B.Pre

funding

companies

VC-backed

companiesVC-backed

$1B+

companies

founded

since

1990$1B+$10B+$100B+±

12.5K

startupsraisetheirfirstVC

roundeachyearCurrentpoolof±150K

activeVC-backedstartupsfoundedsince2000(2)3,500(3)34017Inanormalyear,

roughly200

companiesreacha$1Bvaluation(almost800peryearduring2020–?21)1.DealroomestimatebasedonDealroomSignal.2.Total

numberoffundedstartupsisover300K,but150Kisthenumberthatiscurrentlyactive.3.Ofthe3,500thereareabout

1,400

unrealized

unicorns

and1,300

$1B+

exits

(theremaining700areunconfirmed$1B+companies).Page

/5What

about

bootstrapping?

At

least

50

startups

have

reached

the

$1B+

milestonewithout

help

of

VC.

That?s

about

1%

of

the

total

startup

universe.Pre

funding

companiesBootstrapped

companiesBootstrapped

$1B+

tech

companies

founded

since

1990$1B+$10B+$100B+±

5,000

bootstrappedcompanies1408VC-backedstartupsareonastartup-likegrowthpath

(1)Note:bootstrappeddoesn?tmeanzerofundingbutitmeans:no(known)institutionalcapital.1.DealroomestimatebasedonDealroomSignal.Page

/6Every

year,

about

12.5K

startups

raise

their

first

VC

round.

Dealroom

Signal

hasidentified

a

pool

of

40K

new

and

not

yet

funded

startups.Pre

funding

companiesVC-backedcompanies$1B+

companiesStartup

foundingteam

origins:UniversitiesStartupalumniCorporatealumniAcceleratorsIncubatorsNew

business

formationMillionsofnewcompaniesareincorporatedeveryyear.±99%arenotstartups(oratleastdonotappearto

be).Currentpoolof±40K(1)

new¬yetfundedstartupsRepeatfoundersOtherSource:dealroom.co.Numbersareindicative.1.BasedonDealroomSignal,takingintoaccountfounderbackground,universitya?iliation,andcompanydescription.Numberdependsondefinitionofstartups.Page

/7Europe?s

EIF

invests

in

many

VC

funds.

Past

EIF

research

gives

us

a

sense

of

thedistribution

of

outcomes:

4%

of

exits

return

over

5x,

and

thereby

much

of

the

fund.Number

of

exits

by

capital

returned

(incl.write-o?s,

liquidations

and

successful

sales)Average

share

of

fundreturned

by

one

exitOnaverage,asingle>5xexitreturns44%ofaVCfund(medianis25%)>5.0x4%>5.0x

44%1.2x–5.0x

10%0.8–1.2x

3.7%1.2x–5.0x

17%0.8–1.2x

8%0.25x-0.8x

12%<0.25x

57%0.25x-0.8x

1.7%0.0%<0.25xSelectedlogosinEIFsVCfundportfolio.

Full

list.Source:EIFreport(source).basedon2,065early-stageVCinvestments,exited,madebetween1996and2015byEIF-backedVCfunds.Thefiguresincludealltheexittypes,i.e.write-o?,liquidationsandsuccessfulsales.Page

/8Meanwhile,

data

from

a

prominent

Fund-of-Funds

shows

that,

among

the

best

VCinvestors,

18%

of

capital

invested

is

allocated

to

startups

that

return

>5x.$

capital

invested$

returned80%ofreturnedcapitalisfromexitswitha>5xreturn>5.0x

18%>5.0x

80%2.0x–5.0x

13%2.0x–5.0x

20%1.0x–2.0x

15%0.5x–1.0x

9%<0.5x

38%1.0x–2.0x5%0.5x–1.0x

1%1%<0.5xSelectedlogosinAdamsStreetEuropean

VCfundportfolioSource:AdamsStreetPartners.RealisedreturnsofLPinvestmentsinEuropebetween2006–2022,presentedbyAdamsStreetPartnersat

SuperVenture(viaJamesHeath).Page

/9In

summary,

the

data

directionally

points

to

roughly

70%

failures,

5%

successesand

25%

lesser

known

exits.%ofcompanies(roundedandindicative)Hall

of

fame±5%High-profileexitsandunicorns±5%reacha5x+exit±1.5%(athird)reachesunicornstatus

(notexitperse)Currentpoolof±150K

activeUnsung

heroesSmaller/undisclosedexitsPart

ofarollupstrategyProfitable&independent±

12.5K

startupsraisetheirfirstVC

investmenteachyearCurrentpoolof±

40K

(1)

new¬yetfundedstartups±25%fundedstartupsTotal

numberoffundedstartupsisover300KStartup

failureLittleornoreturnLiquidation,distressedsaleorassetsale±70%ManyentrepreneurssuccSource:dealroom.co.Percentagesareindicative.1.BasedonDealroomSignal,takingintoaccountfounderbackground,universitya?iliation,andcompanydescription.Numberdependsondefinitionofstartups.Page

/101.2.

The

startup

journey3.

Startup

demographicsThe

startup

journey

can

be

broken

into

three

stages,

with

new

milestones

andperformance

indicators

at

each

stage.ValueSizeFind

Product-market-fit

(PMF)Find

Go-to-market-fit

(GTMF)Manage

&

sustainrapid

growthHigh

performance

at

scaleExpand

growth

opportunitiesAcquisitionsProfitabilitySecondariesExitsValuationTech

&IPProductusersHiringUniteconomicsRevenuesFoundingteamHeadcountProgress(=

time

xsuccess)InceptionEarlyBreakoutLatePage

/12In

this

mental

framework,

a

$30M

self-reported

“seed

round”

becomes

essentially

astartup

with

presumed

Product-Market-Fit

and

Go-to-Market-Fit

out

of

the

gate.ValueMega+$250M+Mega$100–250MSizeSeriesC$40–100MSeriesB$15–40MCrossoverinvestorsSovereignWealthFundsFamilyo?icesAngelsLate-stageVCsCorporateVCEarly-stageVCsFriends&familyGrantsSeriesA$4–15MSeed$1–4MPreSeed$0–1MProgress(=

time

xsuccess)InceptionEarlyBreakoutLatePage

/13By

mapping

real-lifedata

onto

thisframework,

we

can

seewhat

the

startup

journeyactually

looks

like

acrossstages

in

terms

ofvaluation

…$66M$22MEarlystageBreakoutstageLate

stagePage

/14Source:dealroom.co|CreatedwithDatawrapper.de…

and

we

can

see

thestartup

journey

in

termsof

headcount.Headcountheavilydependsonthebusinessmodel(thinkWhatsAppvs.Amazon).92Inaggregate,±50%

ofallstartupjobsareat

theEarlyStage,highlightingthevalueforlocalcommunities.12Earlystage

(±50%

ofalljobs)BreakoutstageLate

stagePage

/15Source:dealroom.co.Lastround2020orlater.

ChartcreatedwithDatawrapper.deDeep

Tech

and

Biotech

startups

have

di?erent

paths

than

regular

startups.Regular

startupDeep

Tech

startupBiotech

startupExploitnewbutproventechnologiesValidateproduct-marketfitasearlyaspossibleR&DandpatentownershipisrareStartswithextendedR&DphaseHighershareoftechnicalsta?LongandcostlytestingphasesDiscoveryphasebecomingshorter*Lessmarketrisk**ValueValueValueRegulatoryapprovalTestingphasesExtendedR&DphaseDiscoveryphaseLabProductdevGo-to–marketScalingR&DInvestmentAcquisition/JVEarlyBreakoutLateresearch*AI,mRNA,digitaltherapeuticsandgeneeditingmakebiotechgraduallymoreliketechstartups,atleastfordiscoveryphase.**There?sgenerallyamarketforcuringdiseases.Butithaslongbeendi?iculttogetfundingforfluvaccines,forinstance.Page

/161.2.

Startup

journey3.

Startup

demographicsSince

2010,

at

least116K

startups

havetaken

theventure-backedjourney.EarlystageBreakoutstageLate

stageExample:ofcompaniesfoundedintheyear2015,12,631havegoneontheVC-backed

journey.Ofthose,5,744haveraisedaPre-Seedround,butnofurtherround.3,104haveraisedaSeedround,butnofurtherround.141haveraisedat

least

one$250M+round.Source:dealroom.coPage

/18About

30%

ofstartups

make

it

toSeries

A

or

beyond.EarlystageBreakoutstageLate

stageNote

thatthesearenotconversionrates

betweenrounds.Somestartupsalsoskipthe(pre)seedstage

andgo

straighttoSeriesA.SomebootstrappedstartupshopontheVC

trainaslate

asbreakoutstage,

orevenlater.

Forinstance,

over2,000startupshaveskippedsomeearlierstages

since2018alone.SometimesonlytheSeriesAroundisknown.Forconversionrates

betweenSeedandSeriesA,seetheseparate

Journey

toSeries

A

report.Source:dealroom.coPage

/19Astrategic

sale,

buyout

or

IPO.Page

/20So