2024日本股市和經(jīng)濟(jì)展望-英

Outlook

for

Japanese

Stock

Market

&EconomySumitomoMitsui

DS

AssetManagementHisashiShirakiChief

GlobalStrategist-September

2023-Outlook

forJapanese

Stock

Market1Market

Outlook?

We

are

bullish

on

the

Japanese

equity

market

as

corporate

earnings

to

be

boosted

bymild

inflation,

steady

economic

growth,

and

a

weakening

Japanese

yen.?

We

expect

the

market

to

resume

its

bullish

trend

after

hitting

the

peak

of

the

FED’scurrent

tightening

regime.?

We

have

raised

our

TOPIX

price

target

from

2,540

to

2,660

and

that

of

Nikkei

225

from37,100

to

37,500

as

of

the

end

of

March

2024

due

to

upward

revision

of

our

earningsforecast.?

Growing

confidence

over

the

virtuous

cycle

between

price

and

wage

increases

couldprovide

a

further

boost

to

the

Japanese

stock

market

going

forward.2Wesee

bullish

market

outlook

ahead(Yen)(Year/Month)Data

is

from

September

2022

to

September

2024.(Source)

Bloomberg,

SMDAM3Wesee

bullish

market

outlook

ahead(Point)(Year/Month)Data

is

from

September

2022

to

September

2024.(Source)

Bloomberg,

SMDAM4Modest

JPY

appreciation

expected

after

FED

pivot

next

year(USD/JPY)(Year/Month)Data

is

from

September

2022

to

September

2024.(Source)

Bloomberg,

SMDAM5Upside

/

Downside

risk

scenarios

Upside

Risks?

FED

pivot

and

monetary

easing?

Virtuous

cycle

between

mild

inflation

and

wage

increase?

Recovery

in

inbound

travel

from

China

Downside

Risks?

Excessive

JPY

appreciation

and

its

negative

impact

on

corporate

earnings?

Renewed

concern

over

systemic

risk

of

global

financial

system?

Prolonged

slow

growth

of

the

global

economy6Growth

expectations

cause

multiple

expansion

in

Japan7Corporate

earnings

outlook

increasingly

optimistic8Expectations

for

improving

governance

lift

Japan’s

PBR

higher9Japanese

ROE

still

lagging

behind

despite

earnings

growth10EPS

revision

continues

positive

trend11Quant

model

indicates

encouraging

earnings

outlook(Yen)(Year)Note:Consensusdata

is

from

January

2006

to

July

2023.Model

estimate

Data

is

from

August

2023

to

December

2024.Source:SMDAM12Model

indicates

current

PER

is

still

below

fair

value(Times)(Year)Note:Consensusdata

is

from

January

2006

to

July

2023,Model

estimate

Data

is

from

August

2023

to

December

2024.Source:SMDAM13Bottom

up

earnings

outlook

gaining

momentumNote:Data

is

asof12th

August

2023,

SMDAM

Core

Universe

(Excl.Financials)

consists

of409

Japanesecompanies

covered

bySMDAM

in-house

analysts.Source:SMDAM14Outlook

for

operating

profit

remains

stableNote:Actual

data

is

from

Q1

2021

to

Q1

2023.

Estimate

data

is

from

Q2

2023

to

Q1

2024.Source:SMDAM15Dividends

and

buybacks

continuing

to

beat

historical

highsShareholder

Return

Ratio,Div.

Payout

Ratio,Dividend

Payment,

&

Share

Buyback(％)(tr,

￥)Forecast(Fiscal

Year)Note:

Data

is

from

FY1995

to

FY2024.

FY2023

and

FY2024

areforecasts

by

Daiwa

Securities.Source:

Toyo

Keizai,

Quick,

INDB,

DaiwaSecurities,

SMDAM16Blue

chip

value

dominates

Japanese

marketPerformance

Comparison

of

Russell/Nomura

Style

IndicesReturns(%)1YearIndex3Month4.076Month14.79YTD19.932year20.403Year41.295Year34.44RN

Japan

EquityTotal

Value13.7710.0912.1810.849.0517.5620.6618.3415.2914.0811.8912.0411.9712.8414.425.9724.6227.5725.6323.0520.1518.0715.4116.7616.6416.446.2122.3827.0723.2718.3718.4416.985.9338.7747.5541.5734.0926.8126.385.0065.2680.9269.6656.2246.6642.3820.5424.8722.1818.107.1736.1757.0140.4719.7318.1817.0331.1536.1634.2031.318.06Top

Cap

ValueLarge

Cap

ValueMid

Cap

ValueSmall

Cap

ValueMicro

Cap

ValueTotal

Growth6.745.85-1.53-2.56-1.600.17Top

Cap

GrowthLarge

Cap

GrowthMid

Cap

GrowthSmall

Cap

GrowthMicro

Cap

GrowthTop

Cap

TotalLarge

Cap

TotalMid

Cap

Total5.705.916.515.727.975.54-0.94-0.603.761.55-0.79-2.2222.5121.2019.3715.3516.322.333.680.665.557.8115.8415.4714.8910.948.7221.5320.8819.8614.5913.1714.7614.1513.2211.5511.2647.2843.0537.2430.5429.5044.1937.8929.1315.2115.544.124.70Small

Cap

TotalMicro

Cap

Total3.773.75Note

:

As

of

22nd

August

2023(Source)

Bloomberg17Outlook

forJapanese

Economy18Current

status

&

Outlook

of

Japanese

economy[Current

Status]?

The

economy

is

recovering.

Exports

of

goods

have

increased

on

the

back

of

the

resilience

of

overseas

economies,

particularly

the

United

States.

Corporate

capital

spendingattitudes

persist,

due

to

strong

pent-up

demand,

de-carbonization

and

digitalization

investment

needs.

Consumer

spending

has

been

lackluster

due

to

headwinds

in

the

face

ofhigh

prices,

but

household

sentiment

has

not.?

Inflation

isslowing.

The

national

core

CPI

rose

by

3.1%

in

July

from

the

previous

year,

down

from

3.3%

a

month

earlier.

After

rising

to

3.4%

in

April,

the

pace

of

price

increaseshas

slowed,

albeit

with

fluctuations.

The

decline

in

import

prices,

which

is

the

starting

point

of

cost

push

inflation,

has

become

more

pronounced,

and

it

seems

to

have

spread

todomestic

goods

prices.[Outlook]①

We

have

raised

ourreal

GDPgrowth

forecastforFY

2023from+1.2%

to

+2.5%andmaintained

thatforFY

2024at

+1.1%.

The

primary

reason

for

the

upward

revision

inFY

2023

was

the

unexpectedly

strong

growth

in

Q2

FY

2023.

In

addition,

we

have

raised

our

forecast

for

exports

due

to

a

strong

US

economy

and

resuming

inbound

travel

fromChina.

With

regard

to

the

outlook

for

the

economy,

we

expect

domestic

demand

to

increase,

particularly

personal

consumption

and

capital

investment

thanks

to

the

re-openingof

the

economy

after

the

COVID-19

pandemic.

Consumer

spending,

which

has

been

lackluster,

is

expected

to

recover

thanks

to

receding

negative

impact

from

price

hikes.Exports

are

also

expected

to

remain

stable.②

We

have

maintained

ourcoreCPI

forecastforFY

2023

at

+2.8%and

raised

thatforFY

2024

from+1.7%to+1.8%.

The

main

reasons

for

the

upward

revision

to

FY

2024CPI

forecast

was

an

increase

in

the

outlook

for

economic

growth

and

a

change

in

the

exchange

rate

assumption

(from

135

yen

to

137.5

yen

to

the

dollar).

In

the

future,

it

islikely

that

the

cost

push

pressure

will

decrease

and

the

core

CPI

will

follow

a

deceleration

trend.

However,

due

in

part

to

support

from

wage

increases,

the

timing

for

core

CPI

tofall

below

2%

from

the

previous

year

is

expected

to

be

deferred

to

the

second

half

of

FY

2024.③

We

expectPM

Kishida’scabinetwill

continueitsaccommodative

economicpolicy.

The

ruling

LDP

is

expected

to

raise

the

issue

of

extending

measures

to

counter

higherinflation.

As

for

the

sources

of

the

funds,

the

government

will

avoid

preparing

a

supplementary

budget

and

consider

using

reserve

funds.

If

the

Kishida

administration

faces

asnap

election

or

if

the

economy

slows

down

from

its

current

steady

pace,

there

is

the

risk

that

economic

measures

with

a

supplementary

budget

will

be

taken.④

The

Bank

of

Japan's

monetary

policy

is

expected

to

remain

unchanged

for

the

foreseeable

future.

In

July,

the

Bank

of

Japan

flexed

its

yield-curve-control

operations,effectively

raising

the

cap

of

10-year

treasury

yield

to

1%.

As

a

result,

the

YCC

has

become

a

dead

letter

and

the

need

to

revise

the

YCC

has

been

reduced.

On

the

other

hand,the

possibility

of

achieving

the

price

stability

target

is

low,

and

short-term

policy

rate

and

the

QQE

framework

with

YCC

is

expected

to

remain

in

place.

However,

the

risk

ofchanges

in

current

monetary

policies

(such

as

eliminating

negative

interest

rates)

will

increase

if

the

BOJ

is

concerned

about

the

side

effects

of

ongoing

accommodativemonetary

policy

through

the

deepening

discussion

of

its

multi-faceted

review.19Forecast

table

for

the

Japanese

economyForecast

of

annual

Real

GDP

growth

and

its

breakdownFiscal

YearFY18FY19FY20FY21FY22FY23

EstFY24

EstReal

GDP0.2%0.1%-4.8%1.6%0.1%0.9%-0.2%2.0%3.0%0.2%-0.1%-0.1%0.8%2.2%3.2%2.4%-0.1%-0.8%-0.9%2.5%-1.2%-0.2%1.6%-0.5%-2.3%0.2%0.0%0.8%-3.6%0.4%0.1%2.0%2.4%-0.1%-4.1%-5.1%-7.2%-5.4%-0.3%4.9%2.7%1.5%-0.6%2.3%0.4%-6.5%0.8%12.4%7.1%2.5%-0.1%5.7%0.1%7.1%2.1%2.8%-0.1%1.4%2.5%-3.0%3.1%0.2%-3.1%-0.6%4.5%7.2%2.0%0.7%-0.3%3.0%9.4%2.0%2.6%-0.1%2.5%1.1%Private

final

consumption

expenditurePrivate

housinginvestmentPrivate-sector

capital

investmentPrivate

inventory

investmentPublic

fixedcapital

formationNet

export

contribution0.3%1.9%2.5%-0.1%3.0%1.3%3.7%-3.0%5.6%3.0%-0.5%2.8%1.5%2.8%2.5%-0.1%0.9%-0.4%2.2%0.0%0.0%0.2%3.8%3.1%2.3%1.2%1.9%1.8%0.0%2.5%2.4%-0.1%-0.6%-9.9%-6.3%-3.4%0.7%Exports

of

goods

andservicesImports

of

goods

andservicesNominal

GDPGDP

deflatorIndustrial

Production

IndexConsumer

Price

Index

(Core)Domesticcorporate

goods

price

indexEmployee

compensationUnemployment

rate-9.7%-0.6%-1.5%-1.5%2.9%Monetary

Policy

interest

rate

(Short

term)-0.1%Note:

Rate

of

increase

over

theprevious

year.

Net

exports

are

based

on

thedegree

of

contribution,

and

theconsumer

price

index

(Core)

excludes

theeffects

of

theconsumptiontax

and

free

education.Source:

Sumitomo

Mitsui

DS

Asset

Management

based

on

data

from

theCabinetOffice,

theMinistryof

Internal

Affairs

and

Communications,

and

theMinistryof

Economy,

Tradeand

Industry20Net

export

boosts

Japan’s

GDPNote:

Datais

fromQ1

2019to

Q2

2023.Source:

Cabinet

office,SMDAM21Start

of

a

virtuous

cycle

to

overcome

deflation?Wage

increasedemand

&

settlement（YOY、％）Wage

increase

&

Core

CPI（YOY、％）（Core

CPI）98765432104Labor

union

demandSettlementy

=

0.7892x

-

1.7289R2

=

0.8243210▲

1▲

20123456790

92

94

96

98

00

02

04

06

08

10

12

14

16

18

20

22（Wage

increase）(Year)Note:

Data

is

from

FY

1990

to

FY

2023.Source:

Japanese

Trade

Union

Confederation,

SMDAMNote:

Data

is

from

FY

1990

to

FY

2022.

Core

CPI

is

excluding

food,except

foralcohol,

&

energySource:

MIAC,

Japanese

Trade

Union

Confederation,

SMDAM22Weaker

Ye

n

and

steady

growth

lift

CAPEX

in

JapanPlan

of

CAPEX

(Inc.

Software,

Ex.

Land

and

R&D,

YOY)（％）20151050▲5▲10▲15FY20FY21FY22FY23Mar.JuneSurveySep.Dec.SurveyMar.JuneSurveySurveySurveySurveyEst.

ResultAct.

ResultNote:

Datais

fromQ1

FY2020

to

Q2

FY2023.Source:

The

Bank

of

Japan,

SMDAM23Sticky

core

inflation

despite

falling

energy

pricesNote:

Datais

from

January

2005

to

July

2023,

Core

CPIis

excluding

food,except

foralcohol,

&

energy.Source:

MIAC,

Bloomberg,

SMDAM24Sticky

inflation

despite

falling

import

prices(%)(Year)Note:

Data

is

from

January

2012

to

July2023.Source:

MIAC,

Bloomberg,

SMDAM25BOJ

continues

its

dovish

policy

despite

stickier

inflation

data(Year)Note:

Datais

from

January

2019

to

March2025.

BOJ’s

Core

CPIis

excluding

fresh

foods&

energy.Datafrom

August

2023

are

forecasts.Source:

The

Bank

of

Japan,

SMDAM26Expectations

for

inflation

remain

high(Year)Note:

Weighted

average

of

inflation

forecast

of

“Consumer

Confidence

Survey”.

Data

is

from

January

2013

to

July

2023.Source:

Cabinet

Office,

SMDAM27Soft

data

shows

resilience

in

service

sectorComposite

PMIPMI,

Manufacturer

&

Non-Manufacturer(DI)58(DI)58565452504846444240565452504846444240ManufacturerNon-Manufacturer2021222320212223(Year)(Year)Note:

Datais

from

September

2020

to

August

2023.Source:

Bloomberg,SMDAM28Manufacturers

start

chasing

non-manufacturers’

recoveryBOJ

business

condition

DI

Large

manufacturers（％）BOJ

business

condition

DI

Large

non-manufacturers（％）4030302020101000▲

10▲

20▲

30▲

40▲

50▲

60▲

70▲

10▲

20▲

30▲

4004

05

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

2304

05

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23(Year)(Year)Note:

Datais

fromQ1

2004

to

Q2

2023.

The

orange

shadow

are

periods

of

economicrecession.Source:

The

Bank

of

Japan,

SMDAM29Recovery

in

autos

to

be

fully

realisedIndustrial

Production（Dec.

2019=100）(%)13012011010090Forecast8070TotalMaterials60General

MachineryTechnology50Transportation

Equipment401920212223（Year）Note:

Datais

from

January

2019

to

August

2023.

Data

afterJuly

2023

are

forecasts.Source:

METI,

SMDAM30“Bear

steepening”

after

BOJ’s

decision

to

widen

YCC

rangeYield

Curve

of

Japanese

SoveriegnYield

Curve

of

Japanese

Sovereign(%)1.8Dec.19th

20221.61.4July

27th

2023August

17th

20231.21.00.80.60.40.20.0▲0.2▲0.4(Maturity)Source:

Bloomberg,

SMDAM31JGB

yield

&

BEI

getting

higher

after

change

in

YCC

range(%)(Year)Note:

Data

is

from

1st

January

2014

to

31st

August

2023.Source:

Bloomberg,

SMDAM32USD/JPY

continues

to

stay

far

above

purchasing

power

parity(USD/JPY)(Year)Note:

Datais

from

January

1971

to

July

2023.Source:

DOL,

Bank

of

Japan,

SMDAM33USD/JPY

rate

chasing

real

yield

gap((UYSeDn//

JUPSYD))(%)(Year)Note:Realinterest

rates

are

10

yeargovernment

bond

yields.

Datais

from

1st

January

2020

to

31st

August

2023.Source:

Bloomberg,SMDAM34Real

yield

gap

dominating

USD/JPY

rate(USD/JPY)(%)Note:

Realinterest

rates

are

10

yeargovernment

bond

yields.

Datais

from

1st

April

2020

to

31st

August

2023.Source:

Bloomberg,SMDAM35Current

A/C

surplus

surges

due

to

shrinking

trade

deficit(Trillion

Yen)(Year)Note:

Data

is

Seasonallyadjusted.

Data

for

current

account

is

from

January2010to

June

2023.

Data

for

tradebalanceis

from

January

2010to

July2023.Source:

MOF,

SMDAM36Chinese

inbound

travel

has

started

recovering

slowlyInbound

Travelers

to

Japan(Thousand)350300TotalChi

na2502001501005001314151617181920212223(Year)Note:

Datais

from

January

2013

to

July

2023.

Data

is

non-seasonally

adjusted.Source:

JapanNational

Tourism

Organization,

SMDAM37Normalization

of

auto

production

lifts

durable

goods

salesConsumer

Activity

Index（Dec.

2019

=

100）Retail

Sales（Dec.

2019

=

100）15016014012010080Total140Durable

GoodsNon-durable

goods130Services12011010090Total60Various

goodsClothes4080Food

&

BeverageAutomobilesMachinery2070600181920212223(Year)181920212223(Year)Note:

Datais

from

January

2018

to

June

2023.Source;

Bank

of

Japan,

METI,

and

SMDAM38Falling

approval

rate

could

be

negative

for

the

stock

market

aheadCabinet

approval

rateSuga(%)Abe

CabinetKishida

CabinetCabinet80706050403020100ApprovalDisapproval1314151617181920212223(Year)Note:

Datais

from

January

2013

to

August

2023.Source:

NHK,Asahi,

Kyodo,Nikkei,

Yomiuri,

Sankei,

Mainichi,

Jiji,and

SMDAM39Schedule

of

major

eventsYear2023MonthSeptemberDate89-1021-22EventRevision

of

CY

2023

Q2

GDPG20

Summit

in

IndiaMonetary

Policy

MeetingAppointment

of

key

posts

of

ruling

Liberal

Democratic

PartyStart

of

thequalified

invoice-based

methodMonetary

Policy

MeetingOctoberNovemberDecember130-3115Releaseof

CY

2023

Q3

GDP8Revision

of

CY

2023

Q3

GDP18-19Monetary

Policy

MeetingCabinet

approval

of

theinitial

budget

for

fiscal

2024

and

thetax

reform

outlineStart

of

new

NISA

(Nippon

Individual

Savings

Account)Monetary

Policy

Meeting2024January122-23Release

of

BOJ

view

reportFebruaryMarchApril15Releaseof

CY

2023

Q4

GDP1118-1925-26Revision

of

CY

2023

Q3

GDPMonetary

Policy

MeetingMonetary

Policy

MeetingRelease

of

BOJ

view

reportMayJune13-14Monetary

Policy

Meeting(Source)

Compiled

by

Sumitomo

Mitsui

DS

Asset

Management

Co.,

Ltd.40DisclaimerPlease

read

this

disclaimer

carefully.

This

material

is

for

non-Japanese

institutional

investors

only.

The

research

and

analysis

included

inthis

report,

and

those

opinions

or

judgments

as

outcomes

thereof,

areintended

to

introduce

ordemonstrate

capabilities

and

expertise

of

Sumitomo

MitsuiDSAsset

Management

Company,

Limited

(hereinafter

“SMDAM”),

or

to

provideinformation

on

investment

strategies

and

opportunities.

Therefore

this

material

is

not

intended

to

offer

or

solicit

investments,

provide

investmentadvice

or

service,

or

to

be

considered

as

disclosure

documents

under

the

Financial

Instruments

and

Exchange

Law

of

Japan.

The

expected

returns

or

risksinthis

report

are

calculated

based

upon

historical

data

and/or

estimated

upon

the

economic

outlook

at

present,

andshould

be

construed

no

warrant

of

future

returns

and

risks.

Past

performance

is

not

necessarily

indicati