UBS Equities-US Equity Strategy -Earnings Brief Q May - Golub-此為英文文檔

q1Q24

ab

GlobalResearchandEvidenceLab7May2024

USEquityStrategy

EarningsBrief1Q24:May07

Quarterlyearningsestimatestendtodeclinegoingintoreportingseason,onlytobetoppedbypositivesurprises.1Qrevisionsdefiedthistrend,declininglessthantypicalandreboundingmorestrongly.2Qestimateshaverisensincetheendofthequarter.

83.3%oftheS&P500'smarketcaphasreported.1Qexpectationsareforrevenuestogrow3.9%andEPSby10.2%.Growthamonggroupsvariessignificantly,asshowninthetablebelow(ablendofconsensusestimatesandreportedresultswhereavailable):

Group

TECH+

Financials

Industrials&DiscexInternetRetail

Non-CyclicalexHealthCare

HealthCare

Energy&Materials

Source:Standard&Poor’s,Refinitiv,FactSet,UBS

EPSGrowth(%)

38.212.2 6.1 5.9 -2.8-22.9

Earningsarebeatingestimatesby7.7%inaggregate,with74%ofcompaniestoppingprojections.EPSisonpacefor11.0%,assumingthehistoricalbeatrateof4.8%fortherestofthisseason.

FirmsbeatingonbothrevenuesandEPSareoutperformingthemarketby0.5%vs.ahistoricalaverageof1.7%,whileonesmissingonbothareunderperformingby-3.4%vs.-3.1%.

Overthenext5tradingdays,23companiesrepresenting2.4%ofS&P500’smarketcapwillreportresults,includingUber,Airbnb,ConstellationEnergy,andHomeDepot.

Figure1:Pathof1Q24Bottom-UpS&P500ConsensusEPS

EquityStrategy

Americas

JonathanGolub

Strategist

jonathan.golub@+1-212-7138673

PatrickPalfrey

Strategist

patrick.palfrey@+1-212-713-2000

WillJackson

AssociateStrategistwill.jackson@+1-212-713-2000

NicholasSamoyedny

AssociateStrategist

nicholas.samoyedny@+1-212-713-2000

4

2

0

-2

-4

-6

*

3.0

-0.2

-0.8

HistoricalTrendΔ

-64-48-32-16016324864

Source:Standard&Poor’s,Refinitiv,FactSet,UBS

Note:Historicaltrendbasedonestimatesfrom1Q11-4Q19

ThisreporthasbeenpreparedbyUBSSecuritiesLLC.ANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDREQUIREDDISCLOSURES,includinginformationontheQuantitativeResearchReviewpublishedbyUBS,beginonpage14.UBSdoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreport.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.

S&P500

PriceAction

Figure4:S&P500PriceAction

Current

EPSSurprises

%

RevenueSurprises

Hits/MissesBeats

-1.2

BeatsHits/Misses

0.5

-1.4

-3.4

0.2

-2.2

-0.2

-2.7

HistoricalAverage

EPSSurprises

%

RevenueSurprises

Hits/MissesBeats

-0.3

BeatsHits/Misses

1.7

-1.4

-3.1

1.1

-1.5

0.9

-2.4

Source:Standard&Poor’s,Refinitiv,FactSet,UBS

Note:Surprisedcalculatedbasedonrevenuebeat/missby+/-0.25%,earningsbeat/missby+/-1%.Price

performance-1to+1days

Figure5:S&P500PriceActionTable

PriceAction(%)

EPSBeatwithEPSMisswith

OverallRevBeatRevMissRevBeatRevMiss

-0.80.5-1.4-1.2-3.4

Cyclicals

-0.5

1.4

-0.5

-2.9

-4.1

Energy

-1.9

-1.2

-0.4

-4.1

-3.7

Materials

-0.3

0.9

1.8

-1.9

-4.5

Industrials

-0.7

1.3

-2.0

-2.2

-4.0

Discretionaryex-InternetRetail

0.5

3.2

0.4

-0.8

-3.9

TECH+

-2.3

-0.5

-5.4

NA

-7.0

Technology

-1.8

0.4

-5.4

NA

-5.5

InternetRetail

-6.2

-4.2

NA

NA

NA

Media&Entertainment

-1.4

2.2

2.1

NA

-9.5

Non-Cyclicals

-0.7

0.2

-0.9

-0.9

-2.8

Staples

-1.3

0.9

-3.1

NA

-6.3

HealthCare

-0.9

-0.3

-0.9

NA

-4.3

Utilities

-0.2

0.4

-0.1

-0.6

-0.3

REITs

-0.2

1.2

0.8

-1.7

-2.0

Telcos

-1.3

NA

-1.3

NA

NA

Financials

-0.5

0.3

-1.6

0.3

-1.7

Source:Standard&Poor’s,Refinitiv,FactSet,UBS

Note:Surprisedcalculatedbasedonrevenuebeat/missby+/-0.25%,earningsbeat/missby+/-1%.Price

performance-1to+1days

USEquityStrategy7May2024ab3

Earnings–Growth

Figure6:S&P500EPSGrowth

USEquityStrategy7May2024ab4

%

Deceleration

Recovery

3Q22

1Q24E

4Q23

3Q23

2Q23

-3.4

4Q22

-1.5

-0.9

1Q23

2Q22

2Q24E

3Q24E

Market

rallybegins

10.5

10.3

10.210.5

8.7

7.4

5.8

3.3

1Q25E

1Q22

32.3

TECH+

rallybegins

-18.9

4Q22

-8.5

1Q23

2Q23

17.7

15.0

14.5

13.2

7.0

6.7

6.46.1

2.2

1.3

-0.7-0.2

1Q22

2Q22

3Q22

3Q234Q231Q24E2Q24E3Q24E4Q24E1Q25E

Earnings

Recession

15.3

14.5

4Q24E

Source:Standard&Poor’s,Refinitiv,FactSet,UBS

Note:Blendofactualswhereavailableandestimates

Figure7:TECH+EPSGrowth

42.5

EarningsRecession

Deceleration

38.2Recovery

%

21.2

16.4

13.0

7.1

17.3

17.1

-7.7

-6.6

1Q22

3Q22

2Q22

3Q234Q231Q24E2Q24E3Q24E4Q24E1Q25E

Source:Standard&Poor's,Refinitiv,FactSet,UBS

Figure8:S&P500ex-TECH+EPSGrowth

EarningsRecession

Recovery

%

Deceleration

-8.3

4Q221Q232Q23

Source:Standard&Poor's,Refinitiv,FactSet,UBS

Earnings–Growth

Figure9:Big6TECH+EPSGrowth

USEquityStrategy7May2024ab5

%

EarningsRecession

Recovery

Deceleration

30.5

16.016.114.7

0.5

-9.6

-17.8

1Q222Q223Q22

3Q234Q231Q24E2Q24E3Q24E4Q24E1Q25E

68.2

59.7

54.1

TECH+

rallybegins

42.7

2Q23

11.3

-26.9

4Q22

1Q23

Source:Standard&Poor’s,Refinitiv,FactSet,UBS

Note:Blendofactualswhereavailableandestimates

Earnings–Growth

Figure10:1Q24ES&P500EPSGrowth

%

54.1

38.2

12.2

10.2

6.15.9

1.3

-2.8

-22.9

S&P500S&P500

Big

6TECH+

TECH+

Financials

Industrials&

NonCycex-

HealthCare

Energy&

ex-TECH+

Discretionary

HC

Materials

Source:Standard&Poor’s,Refinitiv,FactSet,UBS

Note:InternetRetailisincludedinTECH+,notDiscretionary

Figure11:2024ES&P500EPSGrowth

%

29.5

22.8

10.8

9.2

8.4

6.1

6.6

5.8

-2.9

Big6TECH+TECH+

Non-Cycex-HealthCare

Industrials&Discretionary

Financials

HealthCare

S&P500

S&P500ex-TECH+

Energy

&Materials

Source:Standard&Poor’s,Refinitiv,FactSet,UBS

Note:InternetRetailisincludedinTECH+,notDiscretionary

USEquityStrategy7May2024ab6

USEquityStrategy7May2024ab7

2

1

0

-1

-2

-3

-4

-5

-6

-7

-8

EPSRevisions

Figure12:Pathof1Q24Bottom-UpS&P500ConsensusEPS

3.0

2.0

1.0

0.0

-1.0

-2.0

-3.0

-4.0

*

3.0

-0.2

-0.8

q1Q24

HistoricalTrendΔ

-64-48-32-16016324864

Source:Standard&Poor’s,Refinitiv,FactSet,UBS

Note:Historicaltrendbasedonestimatesfrom1Q11-4Q19

Figure13:Pathof2024Bottom-UpS&P500ConsensusEPS

*

v2024

0.1

vHistoricalTrend

-5.4

-6.3

JunSepDecMarJunSepDecMar

Source:Standard&Poor’s,Refinitiv,FactSet,UBS

1Q24Calendar

Figure14:NumberofCompaniesReportingbyWeek

#

174

157

41

10

3

57

18

7

10

Weekof:

Apr

1

Apr

15

Apr

8

Apr

22

Apr

29

May

6

May

13

May

20

May

27

Source:Standard&Poor’s,Bloomberg,FactSet,UBS

Figure15:KeyCompaniesReportingOvertheNext2Weeks

11

11

0

0

1

1

5

0

3

1

May8

May9

May10

May13

May14

May15

May16May17

May20

May21

UBER

CEG

HD

CSCO

WMT

PANW

LOW

ABNB

MTD

AMAT

KEYS

EMR

WBD

DE

NDSN

BR

AKAM

ROST

CPAY

EPAM

TTWO

STE

VTRS

ATO

CRL

CE

GEN

NWSA

EVRG

NI

PODD

Source:Standard&Poor’s,Bloomberg,FactSet,UBS

Note:Maxof10companiesperdaylisted

USEquityStrategy7May2024ab8

USEquityStrategy7May2024ab9

1.0

0.1

HistoricalSurpriseTrends

Figure16:S&P500RevenueSurprise

%

5.0

4.2

3.0

2.9

2.6

2.3

1.9

1.7

1.4

1.2

0.9

Avg:1.0%

1.01.0

2.62.6

2.6

2.6

1.6

1.7

1Q193Q191Q203Q201Q213Q211Q223Q221Q233Q231Q24

Source:Standard&Poor’s,Refinitiv,FactSet,UBS

Note:Beat/Miss+/-0.25%

Figure17:S&P500EarningsSurprise

%

23.2

21.4

19.4

15.515.5

6.7

5.5

4.6

7.6

6.5

7.4

6.9

7.7

1Q24

6.4

Avg:4.8%

5.2

4.64.3

2.9

9.7

2.7

1.3

3Q221Q233Q23

1Q193Q191Q203Q201Q213Q21

1Q22

Source:Standard&Poor’s,Refinitiv,FactSet,UBS

Note:Beat/Miss+/-1%

USEquityStrategy7May2024ab10

HistoricalGrowthTrends

Figure18:S&P500RevenueGrowth

%

26.1

16.0

16.8

13.9

13.3

11.1

10.9

5.9

4.8

3.9

3.8

3.6

3.9

2.0

2.52.4

1.6

1.9

0.5

0.9

-1.9

-8.8

4Q182Q194Q192Q204Q202Q214Q212Q224Q222Q234Q23

Source:Standard&Poor’s,Refinitiv,FactSet,UBS

Note:YoYgrowthofcurrentconstituents;blendofunreportedandreportednumberswhereavailable

Figure19:S&P500EPSGrowth

%

86.9

17.1

2.83.81.12.94.1

47.1

36.7

30.9

10.3

7.4

10.510.2

5.8

3.3

-3.4

-1.5-0.9

-6.4

-13.6

-30.7

4Q182Q194Q192Q204Q202Q214Q212Q224Q222Q234Q23

Source:Standard&Poor’s,Refinitiv,FactSet,UBS

Note:YoYgrowthofcurrentconstituents;blendofunreportedandreportednumberswhereavailable

HistoricalGrowthTrends

Figure20:S&P500RevenueDashboard

USEquityStrategy7May2024ab11

S&P500

S&P500

RevenueGrowth(%)RevenueSurprise

RptdTotalReptdUnreptdBlendedPct(%)%Beat%Miss

4135003.65.23.91.05734

Cyclicals

150

176

-0.1

-1.6

-0.3

0.0

52

41

Energy

22

23

-2.4

-7.7

-2.5

2.1

73

27

Materials

27

28

-5.3

-6.5

-5.3

-0.2

41

48

Industrials

67

78

1.1

-2.0

0.8

-1.7

51

42

Discretionaryex-InternetRetail

34

47

4.0

-0.9

2.5

0.1

50

41

TECH+

55

77

8.6

20.9

10.4

1.0

65

22

Technology

47

65

3.3

22.2

7.6

0.8

62

26

InternetRetail

5

6

12.3

13.4

12.3

0.7

80

NA

Media&Internet

3

6

18.5

NA

17.7

1.9

100

NA

Non-Cyclicals

141

176

3.3

4.1

3.4

0.2

59

34

Staples

28

38

1.3

2.1

1.6

0.0

61

32

HealthCare

51

64

5.6

11.1

6.3

0.9

73

20

Utilities

23

30

-6.6

0.3

-4.9

-4.8

22

74

REITs

30

31

7.4

7.1

7.4

0.7

70

23

Telcos

3

3

-0.1

NA

-0.1

-1.2

NA

100

Financials

67

71

7.0

6.5

7.0

5.0

58

30

Source:Standard&Poor’s,Refinitiv,FactSet,UBS

Note:YoYgrowthofcurrentconstituents;blendofunreportedandreportednumberswhereavailable;Beat/Miss+/-0.25%.

Figure21:S&P500EarningsDashboard

EarningsGrowth(%)EarningsSurprise

RptdTotalReptdUnreptdBlendedPct(%)%Beat%Miss

4135007.516.08.67.77416

Cyclicals

150

176

-10.5

-7.0

-10.0

6.2

73

17

Energy

22

23

-26.6

-23.2

-26.4

1.8

64

23

Materials

27

28

-21.8

-2.3

-21.2

6.0

67

22

Industrials

67

78

6.5

0.2

5.6

8.6

81

12

Discretionaryex-InternetRetail

34

47

4.0

-7.8

0.1

9.5

71

21

TECH+

55

77

35.6

40.9

36.8

10.0

87

11

Technology

47

65

15.0

42.9

22.9

5.1

87

11

InternetRetail

5

6

170

40.3

167.6

18.9

80

20

Media&Internet

3

6

81

304.6

75.6

16.3

100

NA

Non-Cyclicals

141

176

1.1

2.2

1.2

6.3

74

13

Staples

28

38

7.0

-6.0

4.3

8.3

86

7

HealthCare

51

64

-4.0

-9.7

-4.5

7.3

86

6

Utilities

23

30

11.1

19.0

12.7

6.2

57

30

REITs

30

31

7.1

1.9

6.8

1.1

57

17

Telcos

3

3

-4.3

NA

-4.3

3.3

100

NA

Financials

67

71

10.2

12.3

10.2

8.3

63

22

Source:Standard&Poor’s,Refinitiv,FactSet,UBS

Note:YoYgrowthofcurrentconstituents;blendofunreportedandreportednumberswhereavailable;Beat/Miss+/-1.0%.

USEquityStrategy7May2024ab12

Pleasecontactustobeaddedtoourdailydistributionlist.

TheauthorswouldliketothankMohitJainandZenyaKoprowski,ourresearch

supportserviceprofessionals,forassistinginthepreparationofthisresearchreport.

USEquityStrategy7May2024ab13

ValuationMethodandRiskStatement

Equitymarketreturnsareinfluencedbycorporateearnings,interestrates,riskpremia,aswell

asothervariablesinfluencedbythebusinesscycle.Theoutlookforanyandallofthese

variablesissubjecttochange.

USEquityStrategy7May2024ab14

RequiredDisclosures

ThisdocumenthasbeenpreparedbyUBSSecuritiesLLC,anaffiliateofUBSAG.UBSAG,itssubsidiaries,branchesandaffiliates,includingCreditSuisseAGanditssubsidiaries,branchesandaffiliatesarereferredtohereinas"UBS".

ForinformationonthewaysinwhichUBSmanagesconflictsandmaintainsindependenceofitsUBSGlobalResearchproduct;historicalperformanceinformation;certainadditionaldisclosuresconcerningUBSGlobalResearchrecommendations;andtermsandconditionsforcertainthirdpartydatausedinresearchreport,pleasevisit

/disclosures

.Unlessotherwiseindicated,informationanddatainthisreportarebasedoncompanydisclosuresincludingbutnotlimitedtoannual,interim,quarterlyreportsandothercompanyannouncements.Thefigurescontainedinperformancechartsrefertothepast;pastperformanceisnotareliableindicatoroffutureresults.Additionalinformationwillbemadeavailableuponrequest.UBSSecuritiesCo.LimitedislicensedtoconductsecuritiesinvestmentconsultancybusinessesbytheChinaSecuritiesRegulatoryCommission.UBSactsormayactasprincipalinthedebtsecurities(orinrelatedderivatives)thatmaybethesubjectofthisreport.Thisrecommendationwasfinalizedon:07May202412:21PMGMT.UBShasdesignatedcertainUBSGlobalResearchdepartmentmembersasDerivativesResearchAnalystswherethosedepartmentmemberspublishresearchprincipallyontheanalysisofthepriceormarketforaderivative,andprovideinformationreasonablysufficientuponwhichtobaseadecisiontoenterintoaderivativestransaction.WhereDerivativesResearchAnalystsco-authorresearchreportswithEquityResearchAnalystsorEconomists,theDerivativesResearchAnalystisresponsibleforthederivativesinvestmentviews,forecasts,and/orrecommendations.QuantitativeResearchReview:UBSGlobalResearchpublishesaquantitativeassessmentofitsanalysts'responsestocertainquestionsaboutthelikelihoodofanoccurrenceofanumberofshorttermfactorsinaproductknownasthe'QuantitativeResearchReview'.Viewscontainedinthisassessmentonaparticularstockreflectonlytheviewsonthoseshorttermfactorswhichareadifferenttimeframetothe12-monthtimeframereflectedinanyequityratingsetoutinthisnote.Forthelatestresponses,pleaseseetheQuantitativeResearchReviewAddendumatthebackofthisreport,whereapplicable.Forpreviousresponsespleasemakereferenceto(i)previousUBSGlobalResearchreports;and(ii)wherenoapplicableresearchreportwaspublishedthatmonth,theQuantitativeResearchReviewwhichcanbefoundat

/

quantitative,orcontactyourUBSsalesrepresentativeforaccesstothereportortheQuantitativeResearchTeamonqa@.AconsolidatedreportwhichcontainsallresponsesisalsoavailableandagainyoushouldcontactyourUBSsalesrepresentativefordetailsandpricingortheQuantitativeResearchteamontheemailabove.

AnalystCertification:

Eachresearchanalystprimarilyresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreport,inwholeorinpart,certifiesthatwithrespecttoeachsecurityorissuerthattheanalystcoveredinthisreport:(1)alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthosesecuritiesorissuersandwerepreparedinanindependentmanner,includingwithrespecttoUBS,and(2)nopartofhisorhercompensationwas,is,orwillbe,directlyorindirectly,relatedtothespecificrecommendationsorviewsexpressedbythatresearchanalystintheresearchreport.

UBSGlobalResearch:GlobalEquityRatingDefinitions

12-MonthRating

Definition

Coverage1

IBServices2

Buy

FSRis>6%abovetheMRA.

51%

36%

Neutral

FSRisbetween-6%and6%oftheMRA.

40%

38%

Sell

FSRis>6%belowtheMRA.

8%

33%

Short-TermRating

Definition

Coverage3

IBServices4

Buy

Stockpriceexpectedtorisewithinthreemonthsfromthetimetheratingwasassignedbecauseofaspecificcatalystorevent.

<1%

<1%

Sell

Stockpriceexpectedtofallwithinthreemonthsfromthetimetheratingwasassignedbecauseofaspecificcatalystorevent.

<1%

<1%

Source:UBS.Ratingallocationsareasof31March2024.

1:Percentageofcompaniesundercoveragegloballywithinthe12-monthratingcategory.

2:Percentageofcompanieswithinthe12-monthratingcategoryforwhichinvestmentbanking(IB)serviceswereprovidedwithinthepast12months.

3:PercentageofcompaniesundercoveragegloballywithintheShort-Termratingcategory.

4:PercentageofcompanieswithintheShort-Termratingcategoryforwhichinvestmentbanking(IB)serviceswereprovidedwithinthepast12months.

USEquityStrategy7May2024ab15

KEYDEFINITIONS:ForecastStockReturn(FSR)isdefinedasexpectedpercentagepriceappreciationplusgrossdividendyieldoverthenext12months.Insomecases,thisyieldmaybebasedonaccrueddividends.MarketReturnAssumption(MRA)isdefinedastheone-yearlocalmarketinterestrateplus5%(aproxyfor,andnotaforecastof,theequityriskpremium).UnderReview(UR)StocksmaybeflaggedasURbytheanalyst,indicatingthatthestock'spricetargetand/orratingaresubjecttopossiblechangeinthenearterm,usuallyinresponsetoaneventthatmayaffecttheinvestmentcaseorvaluation.Short-TermRatingsreflecttheexpectednear-term(uptothreemonths)performanceofthestockanddonotreflectanychangeinthefundamentalvieworinvestmentcase.EquityPriceTargetshaveaninvestmenthorizonof12months.

EXCEPTIONSANDSPECIALCASES:UKandEuropeanInvestmentFundratingsanddefinitionsare:Buy:Positiveonfactorssuchasstructure,management,performancerecord,discount;Neutral:Neutralonfactorssuchasstructure,management,performancerecord,discount;Sell:Negativeonfactorssuchasstructure,management,performancerecord,discount.CoreBandingExceptions(CBE):Exceptionstothestandard+/-6%bandsmaybegrantedbytheInvestmentReviewCommittee(IRC).FactorsconsideredbytheIRCincludethestock'svolatilityandthecreditspreadoftherespectivecompany'sdebt.Asaresult,stocksdeemedtobeveryhighorlowriskmaybesubjecttohigherorlowerbandsastheyrelatetotherating.Whensuchexceptionsapply,theywillbeidentifiedintheCompanyDisclosurestableintherelevantresearchpiece.

Researchanalystscontributingtothisreportwhoareemployedbyanynon-USaffiliateofUBSSecuritiesLLCarenotregistered/qualifiedasresearchanalystswithFINRA.SuchanalystsmaynotbeassociatedpersonsofUBSSecuritiesLLCandthereforearenotsubjecttotheFINRArestrictionsoncommunicationswithasubjectcompany,publicappearances,andtradingsecuritiesheldbyaresearchanalystaccount.Thenameofeachaffiliateandanalystemployedbythataffiliatecontributingtothisreport,ifany,follows.

UBSSecuritiesLLC:JonathanGolub,NicholasSamoyedny,PatrickPalfrey,WillJackson.

Unlessotherwiseindicated,pleaserefertotheValuationandRisksectionswithinthebodyofthisreport.Foracompletesetofdisclosurestatementsassociatedwiththecompaniesdiscussedinthisreport,includinginformationonvaluationandrisk,pleasecontactUBSSecuritiesLLC,1285AvenueofAmericas,NewYork,NY10019,USA,Attention:InvestmentResearch.

USEquityStrategy7May2024ab16

UBSGlobalResearchDisclaimer

ThisdocumenthasbeenpreparedbyUBSSecuritiesLLC,anaffiliateofUBSAG.UBSAG,itssubsidiaries,branchesandaffiliates,includingCreditSuisseAGanditssubsidiaries,branchesandaffiliatesarereferredtohereinas"UBS".

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