版權(quán)說明:本文檔由用戶提供并上傳,收益歸屬內(nèi)容提供方,若內(nèi)容存在侵權(quán),請進行舉報或認領(lǐng)
文檔簡介
WHERETOINVEST
INAFRICA
2024
ALEADINGAFRICANCORPORATEANDINVESTMENTBANK
CONTENTS
FOREWORD3
WHYAFRICA?5
AMODELFORAFRICA11
WHERETOINVESTINAFRICA14
INVESTABLEMARKETSSEENFROM30,000FEETABOVE20
ARCHETYPES26
COUNTRYSNAPSHOTS41
THEAFRICANCONTINENTALFREETRADEAREA135
SUSTAINABILITYINAFRICA139
CONCLUSION145
APPENDIX:METHODOLOGY146
REFERENCES153
EXECUTIVE
FOREWORD
WHYAFRICA?
FOREWORD
AMODEL
FORAFRICA
WHERETO
INVESTIN
AFRICA
Africaisnavigatingsigni?cantturbulenceandEconomically,globalin?ationhasprovedmoreperformanceandpotential,marketaccessibilityand
INVESTABLE
MARKETSSEEN
FROM30,000
FEETABOVE
transformationsfrommultiplefronts.Geopolitically,persistentthaninitiallythought,forcingmajorcentralinnovation,economicstabilityandinvestmentclimate,
therearetwomajorwarsthataredrivingtheworldbankstomaintainpolicyratesathighlevelsforlongeraswellasinsocialandhumandevelopment–allof
ARCHETYPES
economiesintothreeaxes–UnitedStates,Chinaand
thenon-alignedandpersistenttensionsbetweenthe
thananticipatedandkeepingthecostoffundingfor
manyAfricancountrieselevated.
whicharefactorsthathavebeenproventodetermine
acountry’sprogressandthereforeits
COUNTRY
SNAPSHOTS
USandChinaaredisruptingglobalvaluechains.
ThewarbetweenRussiaandUkraine–the?rst
Amidthesecrosscurrents,ZambiaandGhanawere
forcedtoundergopainfuldebtrestructuringprocesses
investmentpotential.
Thesearethefactorsthatthisreport,theRMBWhere
THEAFRICAN
CONTINENTAL
FREETRADEAREA
majorwarinEuropeinmanyyears–hasfuelledthe
deglobalisationwhichgainedmomentumfromthe
thatresultedincurrencydevaluations.Egyptand
Nigeria,ontheotherhand,hadpolicy-drivencurrency
toInvestinAfrica(WTIIA),amalgamatesusingasimple
yetrobustmethodologytoconsistentlyproduceone
SUSTAINABILITY
INAFRICA
Trumpadministration’stradetaxesonChinaandwasdevaluationsduetomisalignmentsintheirbalanceofmetricthatgivesaninvestorasenseofhoweachof
CONCLUSION
laterreinforcedbytheglobalpolicyresponsetothepayments.Inthisageofsocialmediadisinformation,athe31countriesweanalysed,jointlyaccountingfor92%
COVID-19pandemic.Theotherwar,betweenHamas
andIsrael,isalsoaddingtoglobaldivisionsonmoraland
headlinethatreads“Africaisnolongerinvestible.”
ofAfrica’sGDP,stacksup.Themethodologyusedstill
allowstheinvestortouncovertheunderlyingdrivers
APPENDIX:
METHODOLOGY
humanitariangroundsbutinlessdisruptivewaystoButAfricaisnotacountry.Itisacomplexanddiverseofacountry’sperformancethatinformitsranking.The
REFERENCES
tradesofar.continentof54countriesthatdifferineconomicWTIIAreportprovidesinsightsofwherepolicycanbe
3
usedtochangecountries’futureperformancesand
thereforetheirrelativeinvestmentattractiveness.
processtoaugmentduediligencewhendetermining
wheretodeploycapitalforbetterrisk-adjustedreturns
EXECUTIVE
FOREWORD
andimpactwithinthediversecountriesofAfrica.For
WHYAFRICA?
Itisdif?cult,ifnotimpossible,toperfectlycharacterise
acountry’sinvestmentpotentialusingoneall-
policymakers,wehopethisreportisaresourcetohelp
identifyareaswherepolicycanbeimprovedto
AMODEL
FORAFRICA
encompassingindicatorduetothemanyfactorsthatattractinvestments.
driveinvestmentattractiveness.Therefore,thereisa
needtoconstantlyupdatemethodologiesfromthose
Weinviteyoutopartnerwithusinthedevelopment
WHERETO
INVESTIN
AFRICA
thatarebasedonfewerdimensionsofacountry’s
structuretothosethathavemoreencompassing
dimensionsthatcaptureacountry’scomplexityina
ofAfrica,aplacewecallhome,andherpeopleunited
indiversity.
INVESTABLE
MARKETSSEEN
FROM30,000
FEETABOVE
betterway.IsaahMhlanga
ChiefEconomist,RMB
ARCHETYPES
Thisisexactlywhatthe2024WTIIAreportdoes.
TheavailabilityofnewdatasourcesformanyAfrican
COUNTRY
SNAPSHOTS
countrieshasenabledandnecessitatedanevolution
fromthemethodologywehaveusedsincethe
inceptionoftheWTIIAreportin2011.Ourupdated
THEAFRICAN
CONTINENTAL
FREETRADEAREA
methodologyisintuitiveyetrobustandstillmaintains
transparencybyusingpubliclyavailabledata.
SUSTAINABILITY
INAFRICA
CONCLUSIONThisreportdoesnotprovideade?nitiveconsideration
indecidingWheretoInvestinAfrica.Wehopethat
investorswilluseitasavaluablepartofanyinvestment
APPENDIX:
METHODOLOGY
REFERENCES
4
EXECUTIVE
FOREWORD
WHYAFRICA?
WHYAFRICA?
AMODEL
FORAFRICA
AlthoughtheexactnumberofcountriesacrosstheAfrican
continentiscontested–mostobserversagreethatthecontinent
ismadeupof54countries–thereisbroadconsensusthatthe
continentboastsaplethoraofcultures,languages,ethnicities,
WHERETO
INVESTIN
AFRICA
INVESTABLE
MARKETSSEEN
FROM30,000
FEETABOVE
religions,andbeyond.
ARCHETYPES
Africarangesfromvastcopperbeltsandfertile,pandemicmanyAfricangovernmentshadinsuf?cient
COUNTRY
SNAPSHOTS
agriculture-basedeconomiestotechnologyhubs
andtouristdestinations.Itsbuiltenvironmentextends
fromportcitiesandruralvillagestobuzzing
andunreliabledataforaccuratepublichealth
decision-making.
THEAFRICAN
CONTINENTAL
FREETRADEAREA
cosmopolitanmetropolises.
InMayof2020,atimewhentheCOVID-19viruswas
wellestablishedaroundtheglobe,Nigeriareported
SUSTAINABILITY
INAFRICA
Africaisdiverseandnuanced,andfailingtojust103deathsfromCOVID-19and3,145con?rmed
CONCLUSION
appreciateitsfulldepthandbreadthcanleadto
misunderstandingsandunderestimations.Italsocan
infections.However,inacountrywithapopulationof
218million,fewerthan22,000peoplehadbeentested,
APPENDIX:
METHODOLOGY
resultinperceptionsthatfailtomapontoreality.
PartofthemisjudgementofAfrica’svastnessand
complexityisaconsequenceofpoordataand
suggestingatremendousundercountingoftheimpact
ofthevirus.1
REFERENCES
statisticalcapacity.Therearemajordatagaps.ThiswasInvestors,executives,capitalallocators,management
particularlyevident,forexample,duringtheCOVID-19teams,scholars,andentrepreneurs?ndsimilar
5
InMayof2020,atimewhen
theCOVID-19viruswaswell
establishedaroundtheglobe,
Nigeriareportedjust103
deathsfromCOVID-19and
3,145con?rmedinfections.
However,inacountrywith
apopulationof218million,
fewerthan22,000people
challengeswhenevaluatingmarketsinAfrica.
Economiesonthecontinenttendtobepoorly
understoodandunderrepresentedindatabases.
Historically,a“l(fā)ackofdatahasalsomeantthatAfrica
wasleftoutofacademicdebatesaboutpatternsof
long-rungrowth.”2
Thetaskofclosingthisgapindata–and,by
implication,knowledge–ismadedif?cultbymultiple
ongoingchallenges.Africa’srelativelylargeinformal
economymakesdatacollectionaverydifferenttask
thanstatisticiansexperienceinhighlydeveloped
economies.Theinformaleconomy“isbyde?nition
providesgrossdomesticproduct(GDP)datain
currentandconstantpricesfor47sub-Saharan
countriesforeachyearfrom1991to2004,theUnited
NationsStatisticalOf?cehad,asofmid-2006,actually
receiveddataforonlyjustunderhalfofthese1,410
observationsandhad,infact,receivednoconstant
pricedatawhatsoeveronanyyearfor15ofthe
countriesforwhichthecomplete1991-2004online
timeseriesarepublished.”7
However,inahighlyglobalisedandincreasingly
digitisedworld,wehavebetterdatacoveragethan
everbefore.Withlargerportionsofthecontinent
EXECUTIVE
FOREWORD
WHYAFRICA?
AMODEL
FORAFRICA
WHERETO
INVESTIN
AFRICA
INVESTABLE
MARKETSSEEN
FROM30,000
FEETABOVE
ARCHETYPES
hadbeentested,suggestinga
tremendousundercountingof
theimpactofthevirus.
unrecorded,sothedataaddedtonationalaccountsis
verymalleable.”3
Thecontinent’sbusinessesarealsomorelikelytobe
informal4thancontemporariesinadvancednations.
coveredbymorecomprehensiveandreliabledata
eachyear,itisimportantthatweharnessthis
informationtobuildclearerpicturesofAfrica’s
investmentlandscape.
COUNTRY
SNAPSHOTS
THEAFRICAN
CONTINENTAL
FREETRADEAREA
In2018,globalconsulting?rmMcKinsey&Co.could
tallyjust338companiesinAfricawithrevenuesof
ForthisissueoftheRMBWheretoInvestinAfrica
report,wehavebuiltascorecardfor31countries
SUSTAINABILITY
INAFRICA
US$1.0bnperyear.5Atthesametime,itisestimateddrawingon20differentmetricsmadeupofrich
CONCLUSION
thatthereareasmanyas80millionmid-small-and-dataspanningfourmeasurementpillars.Thedata
micro-sizedenterprises(MSMEs).Relativelyhighlevels
ofcorruption6andmultiplecon?ictzonesaddtothe
coverseverythingfromGDPpercapitatohuman
developmentdrawingonpubliclyavailabledatasets
APPENDIX:
METHODOLOGY
dif?cultyofreliabledata.fromglobalinstitutions,includingtheWorldBank,
REFERENCES
theIMF,theAfricanDevelopmentBank,theUnited
AnexampleofthepaucityofdataforAfrica.“AlthoughNations,andtheInternationalLabourOrganisation.
theonlineUnitedNationsNationalAccountsdatabase
6
FIGURE1
NumberofindicatorsavailablefromtheWorldBank
Themodel-explainedindetailinthenextchapter-
recordshowthereports’authorshaveaggregated
EXECUTIVE
FOREWORD
thedatatoestablishextensivecoveragefor31
WHYAFRICA?
G20SouthAfricaAfricaNotG2OorAfrica
Africanmarketsthatcollectivelyrepresent92%ofthe
continent’seconomicactivity(measuredbyGDP),and
AMODEL
FORAFRICA
12000
10000
2000
COL
IDN
KAZZAF
MEX
MDA
TUR
ARMHUEPERPAK
CAIAOEGUY
KEN
MACPERDOM
OUHRENPAYUKHCHL
MVR
BRA
SENLGANGA
NAMOET
SUO
OWNDOSMARUS
NHUBOLROUPAK
TMB
TZAMEETRH
LSOIBRYPO
SLEAGO
NEA
ZMB
OUALTIUBNUUNPOL
SWZNHU
PVR
HOU
TGO
GMB
KAM
TCDARG
JAUIOK
GMBMOUBZA
VNM
BIH
COSDOUUSB
MARIRQ
GIN
COG
BUMRMR
CZE
MYS
YEM
BWA
PSE
BLZBDMIDVFDYOODEU
AGO
COMCAFPAPSUE
APG
KOR
MNEBUB
GBRNLDESR
GBR
MUHGPTUIGSDN
SVN
DZSAUR
FINNK
PRA
IBL
STPDJBITN
CYPBEL
AUSSAN
TLS
LUXNZLIVSRENEGPIANJPN
XLGUY
EU
GCNPBVSSD
LBN
ISL
SUR
TTOSAU
TONVUT
SLBLCAQATHKGARE
SYC
KIRWSM
BRB
KWT
BTHKPM
SOM
MHL
BHS
ERI
DMA
FSMCMN
BRN
LBY
GNOPRI
VAC
PLW
ATG
GRD
VCT
KNA
SMRABW
GYM
BMU
NRU
TCA
SXMCUW
IND
USCAHN
morethanonebillionpeople(threequartersofthe
continent’spopulation).
APOTENTIALDEMOGRAPHICDIVIDEND
Multiplepotenttrendscapturetheimportanceof
expandingdataandanalysistoallAfricanmarkets.
Perhapsthemostcompellingcaseismadethrough
thelensofdemography.
Thegradual,largelyforecastablelong-termchanges
inpopulationsbysize,locationandagegoalong
waytohelpingusmapthefuture.InAfrica’scase,
demographychartsacoursethatdemandseconomic
understandingandpolicyaction.
Thecontinent’spopulationsizeandtrajectoryshould
openanydiscussionondemographyandeconomic
future.In1900,Africawashometoapproximately
140millionpeopleor9%oftheglobe’spopulation.
Today,thatnumberhasvaultedto1.4billionor18%
oftheglobaltotal.Thisgrowthtrendisalsosetto8
INVESTABLE
MARKETSSEEN
FROM30,000
FEETABOVE
WHERETO
INVESTIN
AFRICA
ARCHETYPES
8000
COUNTRY
SNAPSHOTS
6000
THEAFRICAN
CONTINENTAL
FREETRADEAREA
SUSTAINABILITY
INAFRICA
4000
CONCLUSION
APPENDIX:METHODOLOGY
REFERENCES
110100100010000remainelevatedrelativetotheworldaverage,driven0
GDP,PPP(CurrentInternationalUS$Billions)
Source:CoderaAnalytics(2024)
7
FIGURE2
ShareofAfrica’spopulationgrowthbyagebracket(billionsofpeople)
byrelativelyhighbirthrates,fallingratesofinfant
mortality,andrisinglifeexpectancy.
EXECUTIVE
FOREWORD
WHYAFRICA?
age:0-24age:25-64age:65+
Inthecontextofdecliningfertilityratesinhigh-income
countriesworldwide9,theUnitedNationsprojects
thatby2050,Africa’spopulationwillreachcloseto2.5
AMODEL
FORAFRICA
2
billion.10Thiswouldmeanthataquarteroftheworld’s
populationwillresideinAfrica.
WHERETO
INVESTIN
AFRICA
Theagedistributionofthispopulationaddstothe
analysis.Thisisayoungpopulation,andtheproportion
INVESTABLE
MARKETSSEEN
FROM30,000
FEETABOVE
1.5
ofyoungerpeoplewillincreaseoverthenextfew
decades.AsFigure2shows,theproportionofpeople
ARCHETYPES
1
ofworkingagewillgrowsizeablyoverthenext
quarterofacentury.11
COUNTRY
SNAPSHOTS
Thisagedistributionstandsinstarkcontrastto
otherpartsoftheworld.ConsiderEurope,where
THEAFRICAN
CONTINENTAL
FREETRADEAREA
thepopulationisagingquickly.Figure3capturesthis
graphicallywithapopulationpyramid.Africa’slow
0.5
“centreofgravity”translates,ineconomicterms,intoa
SUSTAINABILITY
INAFRICA
CONCLUSION
large,youngpopulationreadytoentertheworkforce.
0
Thishastremendouspositiveeconomicprospectsif
thereareenoughemploymentopportunitiesopenfor
APPENDIX:
METHODOLOGY
thisworkforce.
REFERENCES
19501960197019801990200020102020202320402050
Europe’sagedistributionpyramid,however,
demonstratesadecliningnumberofpeopleentering
Source:Ambrosetti(2022)usingUNDepartmentofEconomicandSocialAffairsdata(estimationsbeyond2022).
8
FIGURE3
PopulationpyramidforAfrica(left)andEurope(right)
theirproductiveyearsandagrowingnumber
ofpeoplemovingintoretirement.Thisplacesan
EXECUTIVE
FOREWORD
increasing?nancialburdenontheshrinkingpoolof
WHYAFRICA?
WhileAfrica
hasahightotal
fertilityrateof4.2,
theaveragelife
expectancyis
63years.
Europe’stotal
fertilityrateis
amere1.5while
theaveragelife
expectancyis
80years.
100
80
60
4040
AFRICAEUROPE
100
80
60
TheUnitedNations
de?nesthetotal
fertilityrateasthe
averagenumberof
childrenthatwould
beborntoawoman
overherlifetimeifshe
weretoexperience
thecurrentage-
speci?cfertilityrates
throughoutherlife.
youngerpeopleinEurope,andsimilarlyformostother
developedmarkets.
Thusfar,wehavefocusedonthepotentialfora
demographicdividend.Theconverseisalsopossible.
Whileagrowing,healthy,productiveyouthsector
isaneconomicboon,thisisnotguaranteed.Where
societyfailstoprovideyoungpeoplewithanurturing
safecommunities,educationalandemployment
opportunities,andmoreareallrequiredtoensure
AMODEL
FORAFRICA
WHERETO
INVESTIN
AFRICA
INVESTABLE
MARKETSSEEN
FROM30,000
FEETABOVE
COUNTRY
SNAPSHOTS
environment,weriskfosteringadisaffectedyouth
contingent.Stronginstitutions,stablepolicies,
ARCHETYPES
2020
Medianage:
43-44years
thecontinentexperiencesademographicdividend.
NATURALRESOURCESENDOWMENT
THEAFRICAN
CONTINENTAL
FREETRADEAREA
Medianage:
18-19years
0
Africa’s30millionsquarekilometres12isalsohometo
vastmineralandnaturalresources.Approximately30%
oftheglobe’scriticalmineralreservesareinAfrica.13
SUSTAINABILITY
INAFRICA
CONCLUSION
12%6%0%6%12%
Nearlytwothirdsoftheglobe’sremaininguncultivated
arablelandisalsoonthecontinent.14Yet,Africaisanet
APPENDIX:
METHODOLOGY
importeroffood.15
REFERENCES
%ofpopulation
WecanevenseethescaleofAfrica’spotentialifweSource:UnitedNationsDepartmentofEconomicandSocialAffairs
shiftourgazeoffits30,500km16coastline.
9
“Threeofthesixlargemarineecosystems(LMEs)of
Africarankwithinthe?rstfourmostproductiveLMEs
Mineralrichescanresultinexploitation,corruption
anddivision.Butthisneednotbethecase.Norway’s
accesstobasicsocialservices,includinghealthcare,
education,tradehubsandeconomicopportunities.”21
EXECUTIVE
FOREWORD
intheworld,withtheCanaryCurrent,theBenguelasovereignwealthfund,capitalisedwithearningsSimilarly,despiteanumberoffamous,largeand
WHYAFRICA?
CurrentandtheSomaliCoastalCurrentranking
second,thirdandfourthglobally.”17
fromoilandgas,isperhapstheleadingaspirational
example,wherethefund’sreservesequateto
navigableriversonthecontinent,“theabsenceof
navigableriversintothehinterlandlimitstheuseof
AMODEL
FORAFRICA
US$290,000percitizen.suchamodeoftransport”.22
Thisnaturalresourceendowmenttakesonanew,
elevatedimportanceinaneraofelectricvehicles
Norway’sprovenreservesof8.1billionbarrelsareAdditionally,astheWilsonCentreputsit,“while
WHERETO
INVESTIN
AFRICA
andrenewableenergy.Madagascar,Mozambique
andTanzaniaaccountformorethanone-?fthofthe
world’sgraphitereserves.18Thisisacriticalingredient
atouchaheadofAngola’sprovenreservesof7.8
billionbarrels.Thedifferenceinoutcomesiswell
documented–andglaring.Thisalsopointstothe
NorthAfricahasalmostreacheduniversalaccessto
electricityandwaterservices,insub-SaharanAfrica,
onlyabout45%ofthepopulationhaveaccessto
INVESTABLE
MARKETSSEEN
FROM30,000
FEETABOVE
forlithium-ionbatteriesthatareusedinelectricincredibleprospectsembeddedintheseresources.reliableelectricityandaround60%ofthepopulation
vehiclesandotherenergystoragesystems.haveaccesstowaterservice.Thismeanssome600
ARCHETYPES
Mostoftheworld’scobalt,withasimilarusagepro?le
INFRASTRUCTUREOBSTACLESANDOPPORTUNITIESmillionpeopledonothaveaccesstoelectricity.”23
COUNTRY
SNAPSHOTS
tographite,isminedinAfrica,withtheDemocratic
RepublicoftheCongo(DRC)aloneaccountingfor70%
oftheworld’ssupply.19
Perhapsthemostpressingneedandinteresting
opportunityliesinAfrica’svoluminousinfrastructure
de?cit.Humanresources,landanddepositsare
Inthisvein,arecentcountputthenumberofdams
insub-SaharanAfricaatatotalof980largedams.
SouthAfricaishometo589ofthesedams.Bycontrast,
THEAFRICAN
CONTINENTAL
FREETRADEAREA
MuchlikethecasewithAfrica’shumanresources,the
toooftenheldbackbyalackofthenecessary
infrastructuretofullyunleashtheir
thereareover15,000damsinCanadaalone.Some
1,157arecategorisedaslargedamsasde?nedbythe
SUSTAINABILITY
INAFRICA
mineraladvantagecomeswithacaveat.Africa,andproductivepotential.InternationalCommissiononLargeDams(ICOLD).
CONCLUSION
otherresource-richregions,hassufferedfromtheThereinliestheobstacleandtheopportunity.Africahas
so-called“resourcecurse”.Despitethemanybene?ts
ofhavingvaluableresourcesunderone’sfeet,there
Considerthatalthoughroadsaretheprimarymodeof
transport,accountingfor80%ofgoodsand90%of
anestimatedannualinfrastructureinvestmentgapof
US$100bn.24Thisisapproximatelytheannualspendof
APPENDIX:
METHODOLOGY
isatragictendencytonotmerelyfailtobene?tfrompassengertraf?c,justover40%ofruralAfricanshaveGermany,France,Italy,SpainandPortugalcombinedand
REFERENCES
these,buttosufferbecauseofthem.accesstoanall-seasonroad.20And“just53%ofroadsalmostasmuchastheUS’sUS$110bnspendperyear.25
onthecontinentarepaved,isolatingpeoplefrom
10
EXECUTIVE
FOREWORD
WHYAFRICA?
AMODELFORAFRICA
WHERETO
INVESTIN
AFRICA
INVESTABLEMARKETSSEEN
FROM30,000
FEETABOVE
ARCHETYPES
COUNTRYSNAPSHOTS
AMODELFORAFRICA
THEAFRICAN
CONTINENTAL
FREETRADEAREA
SUSTAINABILITY
INAFRICA
CONCLUSION
“Allmodelsarewrong,butsomeareuseful”.Thistruismofstatistician
GeorgeBoxisasoundcaveatwhenintroducinganymodel-especiallyso
withalong-runmodelofsomethingascomplexasthefutureofmultiple
inter-relatedcountriesspreadacrosstheworld’ssecondlargestcontinent.
APPENDIX:
METHODOLOGY
REFERENCES
11
FOUNDATIONS
EXECUTIVE
FOREWORD
This2024editionoftheRMBWheretoInvest1.Economicactivityscore–incorporatingmarket
WHYAFRICA?
inAfricareportexpandsonprioreditions.Thesizescore,growthscoreanda?scalscorewitha
previousedition,the2021version,wasbuiltduringweightedaggregationofstandardisedvariables.
theglobalcrisisthatwasCOVID-19.Sodominantwas
AMODEL
FORAFRICA
thatforceatthetimethatweopenedthatreport
asfollows:“2020heldgreatpromise.Positive
2.Operatingenvironmentscore–incorporating
WHERETO
INVESTIN
AFRICA
globalprospectsatthebeginningoftheyear
werecapturedincheerfulbusinessand?nancial
marketsentiment.However,thatpositivityquickly
dissipatedasSARS-CoV-2sweptacrosstheglobe.”
theGlobalCompetitivenessIndex,Corruption
PerceptionsIndexandEconomicFreedomindex.
INVESTABLE
MARKETSSEEN
FROM30,000
FEETABOVE
Thesetwopillarsrepresentedourviewthatthe
ARCHETYPES
The2021editionusedalinearaggregationof
weightedvariablestoconstructaninvestment
decisiontoinvestistypicallybasedontwokey
considerations:economicperformance/activity
COUNTRY
SNAPSHOTS
attractivenessindex.Wedividedtheattractiveness
scoreintotwopillars.Thesewere:
andthenatureofthebusinessenvironment.
THEAFRICAN
CONTINENTAL
FREETRADEAREA
SUSTAINABILITY
INAFRICA
WherewesuggestaparticularAfricancountryisstructurally
CONCLUSION
assembledforanestimateeconomicgrowthrateover
thenextdecade,nothingstopsthepeopleandleadership
APPENDIX:
METHODOLOGY
REFERENCES
ofthatnationfromalteringthatcourse.
12
FIGURE4
2021RMBWheretoInvestinAfricaIndexstructure
EXECUTIVE
FOREWORD
WHYAFRICA?
Marketsizescore
Standardisedandrescaledtoascoreoutof10(45%)
AMODEL
FORAFRICA
WHERETO
INVESTIN
AFRICA
Growthscore
Standardisedandrescaledtoascoreoutof10(30%)
INVESTABLE
MARKETSSEEN
FROM30,000
FEETABOVE
ARCHETYPES
Fiscalscore
Standardisedandrescaledtoascoreoutof10(25%)
COUNTRY
SNAPSHOTS
GlobalCompetitivenessIndex
THEAFRICAN
CONTINENTAL
FREETRADEAREA
Standardisedandrescaledtoascoreoutof10(25%)
SUSTAINABILITY
INAFRICA
CONCLUSIONGlobalPercetptionsIndex
Standardisedandrescaledtoascoreoutof10(33.3%)
APPENDIX:
METHODOLOGY
REFERENCES
GlobalFreedomIndex
Standardisedandrescaledtoascoreoutof10(33.3%)
Source:RMB(2021)
13
EXECUTIVE
FOREWORD
WHYAFRICA?
AMODELFORAFRICA
WHERETO
INVESTIN
AFRICA
WHERETO
INVESTINAFRICA
INVESTABLE
MARKETSSEEN
FROM30,000
FEETABOVE
ARCHETYPES
COUNTRY
SNAPSHOTS
THEAFRICAN
CONTINENTAL
FREETRADEAREA
The2024RMBWheretoInvestinAfricareportisbasedontheinputof
experiencedprofessionalsand,inpart,onworkpublishedinpeer-reviewed
SUSTAINABILITY
INAFRICA
journalstoexpandonourearliermodel.Thequantitativemodelunderlyingthis
CONCLUSION
reportstandsontheshouldersoftheworkdoneonprioreditions.Inthisiteration,
weexpandourrangeofinputdata,extendthegranularity,andconstructarobust
tooltohelpguideinvestmentdecisionsinacomplex,post-COVID-19world.
APPENDIX:
METHODOLOGY
REFERENCES
14
Atafundamentallevel,werefertosomeofthework
byTowhidulIslam,NigelMeade,andAshishSood.Their
Numerically,“we?ndthefollowingrelativeimportance:
macroeconomicattractiveness,42.7%;market
Eachmetricisweighted,whichtranslatesintoaweight
foreachpillar.Theseweightsforeachmetric,andthe
EXECUTIVE
FOREWORD
2022paper26publishedintheJournalofInternationalconcentration,14.4%;socialheterogeneity,17.1%;andconsequentweightsforeachpillarareshownbelow.
WHYAFRICA?
Marketingisacrystallisationofdecadesofliteratureon
internationalbusinessandmarketing.
populationdensity,18%.”
Thisallrepresentstheassemblyofnearly38,000data
pointsintoasinglemodel.
AMODEL
FORAFRICA
Inshort,ifwechooseonemarkerthatbest
Islametal.drawondatafor28internationaloperators,
spanning79countriestoevaluatetheexplanatory
forecastssuccessformarketentry,macroeconomic
attractivenessistwiceasimportantasthenextbest
Evenmoreimportantisthefactthatwehavethe
capacitytoaltertherealitythismodelmaps.Where
WHERETO
INVESTIN
AFRICA
powerofthefourwell-establisheddriversofmarket
entrytiming.
scoringclassi?er.Onewilldowelltotakethis
intoconsideration.
wesuggestaparticularAfricancountryisstructurally
assembledforanestimateeconomicgrowthrate
overthenextdecade,nothingstopsthepeopleand
INVESTABLE
MARKETSSEEN
FROM30,000
FEETABOVE
ThereviewbyIslametal.con?rmsthatthedriversInthecurrenteditionoftheRMBWheretoInvestinleadershipofthatnationfromalteringthatcourse.
ofthisdecisionarefourfold:macroeconomicAfricareportwemaintainthattheinvestmentdecision
ARCHETYPES
attractiveness,marketconcentration,social
heterogeneity,andpopulationdensity.Thisclosely
needstobeviewedthroughbothaneconomic
performancelensandanoperatingenvironmentlens.
Infact,thatisthepurposeofthiswork.Thismodelis
notdesignedtotellthefuture.Onthecontrary,the
COUNTRY
SNAPSHOTS
re?ectsthefoundationsofourearliereditionsof
themodel,althoughthedescriptorsestablish
greatergranularity.
Thus,buildingonourpreviouswork,inthisupdated
editionwepackagethisdataasfollows:
frameworkisconstructedtogainaviewofthelikely
future,andtherebypointtofactorsthatwecanchange
inordertooutperformthisscenario.Thistoolunearths
THEAFRICAN
CONTINENTAL
FREETRADEAREA
Amongotherimportant?ndingstheauthors
1.Economicperformanceandpotential
2.Marketaccessibilityandinnovation
structuraldriversofsustained,meaningfulmovements
ofeconomickeystones,avoidinganyattempttomapor
SUSTAINABILITY
INAFRICA
concludethat“macroeconomicattractiveness[is]the3.Economicstabilityandinvestmentclimatepredictshort-termorcyclicalmovements.
CONCLUSION
predominantclassi?er”.Morespeci?cally,Islametal.test4.Socialandhumandevelopment
therelativeimportanceofeachofthesedrivers,to?nd
onedominantvariable.Intheirwords,“wefoundthat
Thefourpillarsareconstructedfromatotalof20
Toachievethis,weidentifytheengineeredand
entrenchedmetricsthatwilldrivelong-runprospects
APPENDIX:
METHODOLOGY
macroeconomicattractivenesswastwiceasimportantmetrics,eachcomprisingamulti-yeardatabaseofandnot?ckle,near-termgyrations.
REFERENCES
asanyoftheotherdrivers”.robust?guresdrawnfrompre-eminentinstitutions.
15
Thesystematicaggregationofthisinformationis
designedtoenablethebusinessperson,investor,or
policymakertoscanimportantmetricsandrapidly
2GDPperCapita5.0%
comparedifferentmarkets
溫馨提示
- 1. 本站所有資源如無特殊說明,都需要本地電腦安裝OFFICE2007和PDF閱讀器。圖紙軟件為CAD,CAXA,PROE,UG,SolidWorks等.壓縮文件請下載最新的WinRAR軟件解壓。
- 2. 本站的文檔不包含任何第三方提供的附件圖紙等,如果需要附件,請聯(lián)系上傳者。文件的所有權(quán)益歸上傳用戶所有。
- 3. 本站RAR壓縮包中若帶圖紙,網(wǎng)頁內(nèi)容里面會有圖紙預(yù)覽,若沒有圖紙預(yù)覽就沒有圖紙。
- 4. 未經(jīng)權(quán)益所有人同意不得將文件中的內(nèi)容挪作商業(yè)或盈利用途。
- 5. 人人文庫網(wǎng)僅提供信息存儲空間,僅對用戶上傳內(nèi)容的表現(xiàn)方式做保護處理,對用戶上傳分享的文檔內(nèi)容本身不做任何修改或編輯,并不能對任何下載內(nèi)容負責(zé)。
- 6. 下載文件中如有侵權(quán)或不適當(dāng)內(nèi)容,請與我們聯(lián)系,我們立即糾正。
- 7. 本站不保證下載資源的準確性、安全性和完整性, 同時也不承擔(dān)用戶因使用這些下載資源對自己和他人造成任何形式的傷害或損失。
最新文檔
- 關(guān)于土地流轉(zhuǎn)協(xié)議
- 顱縫早閉病因介紹
- 醫(yī)患爭議調(diào)解協(xié)議書
- 2025就業(yè)協(xié)議樣本
- 河南省許昌市(2024年-2025年小學(xué)六年級語文)統(tǒng)編版質(zhì)量測試(下學(xué)期)試卷及答案
- 《電機技術(shù)應(yīng)用》課件 3.1.2 直流電機電樞繞組
- (可研報告)天津東疆保稅區(qū)設(shè)立spv公司可行性報告
- (2024)紙塑復(fù)合袋生產(chǎn)建設(shè)項目可行性研究報告(一)
- (2024)觀光餐廳建設(shè)項目可行性研究報告(一)
- 2023年天津市濱海新區(qū)八所重點學(xué)校高考語文聯(lián)考試卷
- 2023-2024學(xué)年四川省樂山市小學(xué)數(shù)學(xué)四年級上冊期末??伎荚囶}
- 個人簡歷模板免費下載個人簡歷模板
- 2022年08月云南滇中新區(qū)公開招聘聘用制人員60人考試參考題庫含答案詳解
- GB/T 2910.1-2009紡織品定量化學(xué)分析第1部分:試驗通則
- 新教材人教A版高中數(shù)學(xué)必修第一冊第四章測試題及答案
- GB/T 18266.3-2017體育場所等級的劃分第3部分:游泳場館星級劃分及評定
- 反有組織犯罪法學(xué)習(xí)PPT
- 懸梁刺股-圖文
- 公司組織結(jié)構(gòu)圖Word模板
- CYYF城鎮(zhèn)污水廠全過程除臭工藝課件
- 《美術(shù)檔案袋》-課件
評論
0/150
提交評論