多邊投資擔(dān)保機(jī)構(gòu)在促進(jìn)私營(yíng)部門融資發(fā)展基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施方面所能發(fā)揮的

1、I N S U R I N G I N V E S T M E N T S E N S U R I N G O P P O R T U N I T I E S 1990-2002年發(fā)展中國(guó)家有私營(yíng)部門參與的基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施投資年發(fā)展中國(guó)家有私營(yíng)部門參與的基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施投資Investment in Infrastructure Projects with private participation in Developing countries, 1990-2002(單位：10億美元，$ billion)27.739.645.657.182.8127.5109.672.790.567.647.318.118

2、.50204060801001201401990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002風(fēng)險(xiǎn)到底如何風(fēng)險(xiǎn)到底如何？How real are the risks?v 最近投資者的經(jīng)驗(yàn)包括：私人資產(chǎn)的重新獲得政府責(zé)任欺騙原來(lái)政府給予的特許收回F新項(xiàng)目融資困難由于立法和法律框架不足造成合同執(zhí)行失望v 隨著次級(jí)主權(quán)伙伴介入的增加，風(fēng)險(xiǎn)領(lǐng)域擴(kuò)大v Recent investor experience includes:repossession of privatized assetsdefaults on governmen

3、t obligationsrevocation of concessions given by previous governmentsfinancing difficulty for new projectscontract frustration due to inadequate legal & regulatory frameworksv Risk arena widening, as sub-sovereign partners increasingly involved前景如何前景如何Going forward投資需求巨大(電力，水，等等)公共投資穩(wěn)定甚至減少國(guó)際援助在總體

4、融資中占較小比重如何填補(bǔ)缺口？私營(yíng)部門？納稅者稅收？綜合上述幾種， 即PPP?Investment needs are enormous (power, water, etc.) !Public funding stable or even decreasingInternational aid is (and probably will remain) a small percentage of the overall financing packageThus how to fill the gap? Private sector? Taxpayers?Tariffs? A combina

5、tion, i.e. PPPs?在多部門吸引私營(yíng)投資需要減少風(fēng)險(xiǎn)在多部門吸引私營(yíng)投資需要減少風(fēng)險(xiǎn) Attracting private investment in a number of sectors will require risk mitigation 貨幣風(fēng)險(xiǎn) 美元債務(wù)和地方貨幣收入法律風(fēng)險(xiǎn) 法律框架未能實(shí)施或未經(jīng)實(shí)驗(yàn)支付風(fēng)險(xiǎn) 政府未能如期支付次級(jí)主權(quán)風(fēng)險(xiǎn) 投資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)常常發(fā)生在次級(jí)主權(quán)層次l可負(fù)擔(dān)性風(fēng)險(xiǎn) 私營(yíng)部門投資者很難單獨(dú)投資Currency risk Dollar debt and local currency earningsRegulatory risk Regulatory

6、 framework not implemented or untestedPayment risk Government fails to pay amounts dueSub-sovereign risk Investments often at sub-sovereign levelAffordability riskPrivate operators and consumers will not do it all; role of public investments and subsidies減少法規(guī)和政策風(fēng)險(xiǎn)減少法規(guī)和政策風(fēng)險(xiǎn)Mitigating regulatory/polic

7、y risk比工具更重要: 更好的合同:合同中包括對(duì)法規(guī)的清楚描述盡可能明確稅收澄清申述過(guò)程快速仲裁 時(shí)間限制如果未達(dá)成協(xié)議明確退出支付通過(guò)減小風(fēng)險(xiǎn)手段部分風(fēng)險(xiǎn)擔(dān)保 ，合同違約保險(xiǎn)可減輕法規(guī)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)v More important than instruments: better contracts:Clear guidance to the regulator in contractSpecify tariff formulas as much as feasibleClarify appeal processFast track arbitration; timelineSpecified e

8、xit payments if no agreement can be reachedv Through mitigation instrumentsPartial credit guarantees, partial risk guarantees, breach of contract coverage can mitigate regulatory risk保險(xiǎn)可減輕一些表現(xiàn)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)保險(xiǎn)可減輕一些表現(xiàn)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)Guarantees can mitigate some of the performance risks稅收承諾立法過(guò)程 不連接政策政府未預(yù)期支付終止數(shù)量Tariff commitment

9、s Regulatory process Disconnection policiesNon payments by Governments of amounts due (e.g. Output Based Assistance)Termination amounts擔(dān)保：一種風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理的工具擔(dān)保：一種風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理的工具Guarantees: a risk management tool 提高信用提高信用 提高項(xiàng)目的總體風(fēng)險(xiǎn)回報(bào)率 減少借款人對(duì)準(zhǔn)備金的要求 降低融資成本增強(qiáng)信心增強(qiáng)信心 對(duì)東道國(guó)政府的干預(yù)起到威懾作用 給予投資者投資于新的邊緣市場(chǎng)的信心 調(diào)解投資爭(zhēng)端穩(wěn)定業(yè)務(wù)環(huán)境穩(wěn)定業(yè)務(wù)環(huán)境 為商業(yè)運(yùn)營(yíng)提供穩(wěn)定的環(huán)境Credit enhancement improves overall risk-return profile of the project may reduce provisioning requirements for lenders may lower cost of financingConfidence deterrent against host government interference gives investors confidence in investing in n