資產(chǎn)發(fā)展與財(cái)務(wù)課件

PropertyDevelopmentandFinance

資產(chǎn)發(fā)展與財(cái)務(wù)Lecturer:YUYONGPropertyDevelopmentandFinan1Part1INTRODUCTIONPart1INTRODUCTION2

CHAPTER1:INTRODUCTIONTOTHEPROPERTYDEVELPOMENTPROCESS

對房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)過程的介紹Section1. Introduction （介紹） Section2. Theeconomiccontextofpropertydevelopment（房地產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展的經(jīng)濟(jì)背景）

CHAPTER1:INTRODUCTIONTOT3

Section1. Introduction

DefinitionPropertydevelopmentistheprocessbywhichbuildingsareerectedforoccupationorforsale/investment.房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)是一個(gè)從建設(shè)到處置的過程EssentialpointPropertydevelopmentismuchlikeanyothereconomicactivity,itactstosatisfywantswiththeapplicationofscarceresources.

房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)像其它商業(yè)活動(dòng)一樣是一個(gè)在無限需求中分配有限資源的過程。

Section1. Introduction 4

Thedevelopmentprocess開發(fā)過程choosingalocation位置選擇;identifyingasiteandcarryingoutadetailedsitesurvey地點(diǎn)選擇與勘察;providinganoutlineschemeandappraisal制定開發(fā)計(jì)劃和可研;negotiatingforsiteacquisition土地談判;Design初設(shè);planningconsent規(guī)劃審批;Finance融資;siteacquisition獲取土地;detailedplans詳細(xì)設(shè)計(jì);tenderdocuments招投標(biāo);Construction建設(shè);occupationormarketingandmanagement處置.

Thedevelopmentprocess開發(fā)過程5BasicFormulasvalue?cost=profitGDV?(buildingcosts+sitevalue)=profitthegrossdevelopmentvalue(GDV開發(fā)總值)

GDV?(buildingcosts+profit)=EUV(existingusevalue剩余使用價(jià)值)

BasicFormulas6SomeConceptsValueofthesite: whichdependsonlocation,use(underplanninglaw),topography,legalconstraints,groundconditions,servicesandaccess.土地價(jià)值取決于位置、用途、地形、法律限制、地況和基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施。Valueoftheproposeddevelopment: whichdependsonuse,density,design,layoutandinfrastructure.預(yù)計(jì)的開發(fā)價(jià)值取決于用途、容積率、設(shè)計(jì)、布局和基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施。Costofconstruction: whichdependsonsize,design,typeofbuildings,planningconstraintsonbuildings,landscapingandprovisionofservicesandaccess.建設(shè)成本取決于規(guī)模、設(shè)計(jì)、建筑類型、規(guī)劃約束、景觀及基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施。SomeConcepts7Approachestovaluingthedevelopmentproperty

theinvestmentmethod投資法（重置成本法）;thecomparativemethod比較法;thecontractor‘stest成本加成法(acostbasedmethod)theprofitsmethod收益法;and,theresidualvaluation余值法.Approachestovaluingthedeve8Partiesinthedevelopmentprocess

地產(chǎn)開發(fā)的參與者Theprofessionaladvisors專家Theclients客戶Theplanningauthority規(guī)劃部門Thecontractor施工方Thecommunity社區(qū)Thefunders資金方Partiesinthedevelopmentpro9SECTION2:THEECONOMICCONTEXTOFPROPERTYDEVELOPMENT房地產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展的經(jīng)濟(jì)背景HistorictraceKeynesianapproachto‘demandmanagement’凱恩斯主義與需求管理

The‘supplyside’ofmacroeconomics供給學(xué)派Developmentproperty房地產(chǎn)業(yè)的發(fā)展SECTION2:THEECONOMICCONTEX10Twoviews兩種觀點(diǎn)Fromeconomists’aspect宏觀政府方面Economistsarebasicallyinterestedintheinfluenceofpropertyoneconomicgrowthandefficiencyandtheeffectoflocationonfirmsandjobs.

經(jīng)濟(jì)增長和就業(yè)Frompropertydevelopers’aspect

微觀企業(yè)方面Propertydeveloperstendtoapproachpropertyfromadifferentviewfromeconomists.Theyarelikelytofocusonanarrowbandofthepropertymarket,moreconcernedwiththemarketabilityandprofitabilityofpotentialdevelopments.

盈利Twoviews兩種觀點(diǎn)11Optimalsizeofbuilding

最優(yōu)開發(fā)規(guī)模UnitsofaccommodationSitevalueMCMRXPQYVOptimalsizeofbuilding最優(yōu)開發(fā)規(guī)12MR邊際收入= theextrarevenuetobeearnedfromtheadditionofeachsuccessiveunitofaccommodationtoafixedareaofland.Theextraaccommodationisathigher,lessaccessiblelevelsandthusvaluefalls(decreasingmarginalproductivity).MC邊際成本= theadditionalcostsofeachextraunitofaccommodation.Initiallythisfalls(ieinbuildingasecondstorey)butthenitincreases(extralifts,expensivefoundations,projectperiodlengthens).PQY= theprofitthedeveloperwillmakefromthesite(thedifferencebetweenthetotalrevenueandcost).資產(chǎn)發(fā)展與財(cái)務(wù)課件13Part2FINANCIALAPPRAISAL財(cái)務(wù)評(píng)價(jià)Part2FINANCIALAPPRAISAL14CHAPTER2:THEDEVELOPMENTAPPRAISAL開發(fā)評(píng)價(jià)Section1.Introduction Section2.Sitefinding 尋找土地 Section3.Siteappraisal土地評(píng)價(jià) Section4.Planningconsiderations規(guī)劃安排 Section5.Marketresearch市場調(diào)研 CHAPTER2:THEDEVELOPMENT15Section1. IntroductionTheselectionofasitefundamentallyaffectsthenatureandsuccessofadevelopment.Noamountofcarefuldesignorpromotioncantotallyovercomethedisadvantageofpoorlocation.土地的重要性就在于它決定了開發(fā)的性質(zhì)和成功與否。這些往往不是后期的設(shè)計(jì)和促銷工作能替代的。Section1. IntroductionThesel16Section2. Sitefinding土地尋找的影響因素Thedevelopermayhaveabusinessstrategywhichrestrictstheoperationstoageographiclocationorrestrictsactivitytoparticulartypesofdevelopment

公司的發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略

Section2. Sitefinding土地尋找的影響17Distancetodevelopmentsitesmaybeaproblemineffectivelymanagingsites.開發(fā)距離Thedeveloper‘sskillandknowledgeisimportantinidentifyingareasofpotentialgrowth開發(fā)商的專業(yè)知識(shí).Thereleaseoflocalauthoritylandwillhaveregardtomarketconditionsbutwillalsobeinfluencedbytheprovisionsoftheirdevelopmentplans政府規(guī)劃Distancetodevelopmentsites18Sitedisposals土地的處置方式Informaltenderandinvitationstooffer邀標(biāo).

Thedeveloperwillhavetheabilitytorenegotiatethepricebeforeexchangeofcontracts

Formaltenders投標(biāo)

Developersdonotlikeformaltendersasitreducestheirflexibilityandincreasestheirrisk.

Competitions競標(biāo)Thesecompetitionsareusedwhenfinancialconsiderationsarenottheonlycriteriaforthedisposalofthesite.

Auctions.拍賣Sitedisposals土地的處置方式19Section3. Siteappraisal土地評(píng)價(jià)Access通道Accessisimportantfromalegalpointofview.Youhavetoascertainifaccessisprovidedfromasitetoapublicrightofwaysuchasaroadorhighwayadoptedbythelocalauthority.Iftheroadhasbeenadopted,thenresearchintothedeedstodiscovertheextentofrightsoveraccessroadswillneedtobecarriedout.Section3. Siteappraisal土地評(píng)價(jià)A20GroundConditions土地狀況Thegroundconditionsofasitewillbeextremelyimportantwhetherthesitehasbeenanagriculturalsite,wastelandorapreviouslyusedsite.GroundConditions土地狀況21SurfaceLandscapeandBoundaries地面景觀和邊界Theexistingsurfacelandscapemaybetreasuredonalocalornationallevel.Theseaspectsmayrelatetoplanninglaw.Ownershipoftheboundariesshouldalsobenotedfromthedeedsbuttherecanbedisagreementwhereboundarieshavebeenreplacedorwhereonepartyhasmaintainedthefenceasopposedtoanother.SurfaceLandscapeandBoundari22Services基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施Servicesmaygooverorundertheland.Thoserunningoverareusuallycables,probablyelectricityortelephonecables.Thoserunningbelowthegroundmaybecablesordrainruns.Services基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施23Contamination污染Contaminationisakeyproblemandcanrenderlandvalueless.Contamination污染24Governmentassistance優(yōu)惠政策Governmentassistanceisavailabletodeveloperstoassistindevelopingsitesincertainlocationsundercertaincriteria.Theloansavailableincludemoneyforcitygrantsandallowancesinenterprisezonesandurbandevelopmentcorporationareas.Assistanceisalsoprovidedthroughthesimplifiedplanningzones.Governmentassistance優(yōu)惠政策25SECTION4:PLANNINGCONSIDERATIONS規(guī)劃階段Theplanningsystem規(guī)劃系統(tǒng)

Anyonewishingtocarryoutdevelopmentforwhichplanningconsentisrequiredmustapplytothelocalplanningauthoritywhichisnormallythelocaldistrictcouncil.

任何需要做開發(fā)的項(xiàng)目都要到當(dāng)?shù)卣囊?guī)劃部門申報(bào)審批。SECTION4:PLANNINGCONSIDER26Theplanningprocess申報(bào)流程ApplyPlanningauthorityFormaldecisionEightweeksFeespayableAppealtotheSecretaryofStateGrantedRefusedBeyondthetimeTheplanningprocess申報(bào)流程ApplyP27Planningconstraints規(guī)劃約束

Thereareanumberofplanningconstraintswhichwillaffectredevelopmentproposals.Thesecanbesummarisedasgreenbelts,nationalparks,areasofoutstandingnationalbeauty,areasoflandscapevalue,strategicgaps,urbanopenspace,scheduledancientmonumentsandagriculturalland.Planningconstraints規(guī)劃約束28Developmentplans開發(fā)規(guī)劃Structureplans（框架性規(guī)劃）setthebroadframeworkforplanningatlocallevelandtheyprovidethestrategicpolicyframeworkforplanningandensurethatthedevelopmentcoincideswithnationalpolicy.Localplans（具體規(guī)劃）setoutdetailedpoliciesandspecificproposalsforthedevelopmentanduseofland.Unitarydevelopmentplans（綜合性規(guī)劃）combinethestructureplanandthelocalplan.Developmentplans開發(fā)規(guī)劃29DevelopmentControlThedensity容積率whichisbasedonplotratioFSI樓層系數(shù)(floorspaceindex,wherehalfthewidthofadjoiningstreetsisaddedtothesiteindeterminingsiteareafordensitypurposes).Theresidentialdensity居住密度isbasedondwellingsperhectare,housesperhectare

Conservationarea預(yù)留面積orconservationofaparticularbuildingortree

DevelopmentControl30SECTION5:MARKETRESEARCH市場調(diào)研Theformulafortheestimate

(Chainmethod)

M=NxQxPwhereMisthetotalmarketpotential,Nisthenumberofbuyersinthespecificmarket,QisthequantitypurchasedbyanaveragebuyerandPisthepriceoftheaverageproduct.Forinstance,iftherearetwohundredhi-technologycompanieswhowishtobuyanewproductionfacilityeveryfiveyearsandtheaveragepriceofthefacilityissay￡200,000foranaveragefloorspaceof500squaremetres,thenthetotalmarketpotentialisapproximately￡40,000,000overafiveyearperiod.SECTION5:MARKETRESEARCH市場31Researchintoanewshoppingcentredevelopment(3steps)新建購物中心項(xiàng)目的市場調(diào)研步驟Firstly,backgroundanalysis背景分析Secondly,marketanalysis市場分析Thirdly,anestimationofthesizeoftheproject建設(shè)狀況預(yù)測Researchintoanewshoppingc32CHAPTER3:THERESIDUALVALUATIONANDGROUNDRENTS余值法與地租

Section1.Theresidualvaluation余值法 Section2.Calculationofthedevelopmentprofit開發(fā)利潤的計(jì)算 Section3.Calculationofgroundrents 地租的計(jì)算 Section4.Partnershipschemesandequitysharing 合伙計(jì)劃 CHAPTER3:THERESIDUALVAL33SECTION1:THERESIDUALVALUATION

余值法SimplifiedResidualCalculation

Casestudy(p36)

ThecostsinaresidualvaluationwhichhavetobedeductedfromtheGrossDevelopmentValueinclude余值法中，需要從總開發(fā)價(jià)值中扣減的成本包括: Buildingcostsandfees建筑成本和費(fèi)用. Feesonlettingandadvertising租賃費(fèi)和廣告費(fèi). Interestoncosts利息. Contingencies不可預(yù)見費(fèi). Purchasecostsofland土地購置費(fèi)(notthelandvalueasthisistheresidual).Purchasecostswouldincludefeesonpurchaseandcompensationfortenantstoobtainvacantpossession.SECTION1:THERESIDUALVALU34Figure3.1: Scurveofbuildingcosts建設(shè)成本曲線Figure3.1: Scurveofbuildin35Developmentperiod:p39)

figure開發(fā)周期圖<TotalDevelopmentPeriod> Planning Building VoidInvestment Period Contract Period soldor refinanced0>6>15> 18monthsInterestCharges:>LandPurchase18months

>> 1/2Buildingcost9monthsTotalcost

2/3Feesandfees3months >Advertising,contingency,andagentsfees3monthsDevelopmentperiod:p39)figur36DevelopersProfit:p40)formula開發(fā)成本的轉(zhuǎn)化公式ThisisapercentagebasedontheGrossDevelopmentValueortotalcost.Say20%totalcostorsay17%GrossDevelopmentValue.Thesetwofiguresareinter-related,ie: GDV-TotalCost(TC)=Profit, ifProfit=0.2TC,thenTC=P/0.2 GDV-P/0.2=P,GDV=P+P/0.2=0.2P+P=1.2P 0.2 0.2

thusP=GDV/6=16.5%GDVCASESTUDY:DEVELOPMENTVALUATION:p41-44)資產(chǎn)發(fā)展與財(cái)務(wù)課件37SECTION3:CALCULATIONOFTHEDEVELOPMENTPROFIT

開發(fā)利潤計(jì)算(1) Capitalprofitoncompletion(profitmethod)Expectedcapitalvalue ￡9,826,947Expectedtotalcosts: Buildingcost,feesandfinanceon total ￡6,091,824 Landcost 1,550,000 Financeonlandcost@ 15%over1?years 429,488*

￡8,071,312 Residualprofit ￡1,755,635*Thisiscalculatedbycompoundinterest,ie[￡1,550,000x(1+0.15)1.75]-￡1,550,000.GDV-(BC+LC)=PFromthecalculation:Profitasapercentageoftotalcost=￡1,755,635= 21.8% ￡8,071,312 Profitasapercentageofcapitalvalue=￡1,755,635=17.9% ￡9,826,947 SECTION3:CALCULATIONOFT38Annualprofitifschemeisretainedasaninvestment.年投資利潤率的計(jì)算Expectedannualincome ￡687,680paExpectedtotalcosts: Buildingcost,feesandfinanceon total ￡6,091,824 Landcost 1,550,000 Financeonlandcost@ 15%over1?years 429,488

￡8,071,312 Developmentyield=￡687,680=8.52% ￡8,071,312Thusanyreturngreaterthan7%(687680÷9826947)couldbethedevelopersprofit=1.52%.(1.52%.*100/7=21.8%)So,intheresidualvaluationapproach:

Value-Cost=Profitonacapitalbasisand,

Developmentyield-Investmentyield=Developers'profitonanannualbasis.Annualprofitifschemeisret39AlternativeApproaches余值法和現(xiàn)金流量法

Thetraditionalresidualtechniqueisnotadequatetodealwithamorecomplexdevelopmentsituationwhereexpenditureandincomearebeingincurredandreceivedatdifferenttimesoveralongtimescale傳統(tǒng)的余值法無法解決收入和支出在不同期間發(fā)生的準(zhǔn)確計(jì)算問題。.Aresidualvaluationisverysensitivetoslightvariationsinitsdifferentelementssuchasrent,initialyields,constructioncosts,financerateandbuildingperiod傳統(tǒng)的余值法敏感性過高。Greateraccuracycanbeachievedbyusingcashflowapproaches;現(xiàn)金流量法是一種更為精確的方法。

1. acashflowmethod,usingperiodbyperiodcashflowsonwhichinterestcanbecharged;現(xiàn)今流量法使用逐期計(jì)算的方法解決利息的計(jì)算問題。2. adiscountedcashflowmethod,asaboveexceptthattheflowsarediscountedbacktothepresent;折現(xiàn)的現(xiàn)金流量法解決折現(xiàn)問題。3. ADCFapproach,buildinginflationintocostsandgrowthintorents.現(xiàn)金流量法可以把同伙膨脹因素考慮在內(nèi)。AlternativeApproaches余值法和現(xiàn)金流量40SensitivityandRisk敏感性（風(fēng)險(xiǎn)）分析要素1 LandCosts土地成本2 AncillaryCostsofAcquisition獲取成本3 Pre-BuildingContractPeriod建筑前期間4 ShortTermRateofInterest短期利率5 AreaofBuilding建設(shè)面積6 BuildingCosts建筑成本7 ProfessionalFees專業(yè)費(fèi)用8 BuildingandLettingPeriod建設(shè)和租賃期9 Agents‘Fees代理費(fèi)10 AdvertisingCosts廣告費(fèi)11 RentalIncome租金12 InvestorsYield投資回報(bào)SensitivityandRisk敏感性（風(fēng)險(xiǎn)）分析要41Sensitivitytesting敏感性測試

Development Development Onprimesite Oncheapsite (landcosthighinproportion(landcostlowin toothercosts). proportiontoothercosts).

GDV ￡1,000,000 ￡1,000,000 TotalCosts(inc.finance) 700,000

900,000LandValue 300,000

100,000Assumethreescenariosfortheaboveappraisals:i) Valueandcostincreaseinthesameproportion.Inthiscaselandvaluewillincreaseinthesameproportion.ii) Valueincreasesby30%,costby10%. PrimeDevelopmentSite Other ￡1,300,000 ￡1,300,000

770,000

990,000 LandValue 530,000 310,000 +77% +210%Thus,ifvalueincreasesbymorethancost,itaffectslandvaluemoreifthelandvalueissmallinproportiontothetotalvalueofthedevelopment.iii) Valueincreases10%:Cost20% GDV ￡1,100,000 ￡1,100,000 TotalCost 840,000

1,080,000 LandValue 260,000 20,000 -13% -80%Sensitivitytesting敏感性測試42SECTION4:CALCULATIONOFGROUNDRENTS地租的計(jì)算Thiscalculationisusefulwheredevelopersorlandownersdonotdisposeofcompleteddevelopmentsbutretainaproportionofincomearisingfromthedevelopment.這種計(jì)算比較適合部分出售，部分出租的情況。SECTION4:CALCULATIONOFG43ExampleofgroundrentcalculationAssumethecalculationofagroundrentona125yearleasewith5yearrentreviews.EstimatedIncome: ￡500,000paYield: 7%freehold:foralonglease,say7.5%Financecosts: 15%Estimatedcosts: ￡5,000,000(allcostsexceptland)Profit: 20%costsCalculation: ￡ ￡Income 500,000paActualcost 5,000,000Yield@7.5%,decapitaliseby .075Returnforriskandprofit(20%of7.5%say) .015Totaldevelopmentyield .09Developer'scostsandprofit 450,000paGroundrentavailable 50,000paFuturerentgrowth:Ifthefuturerentisdividedupontheoriginalproportionsagreed,itiscalledaproportionalarrangement,asopposedtoagearedarrangement.Thus:Futuregrowthapportioned50,000patolocalauthority/landowner=groundrent 500,000pa totalincome = 10%Developer'sreturn = 450,000pa 500,000pa = 90%Exampleofgroundrentcalcula44SECTION5

PARTNERSHIPSCHEMESANDEQUITYSHARING合伙計(jì)劃Partnershipschemescovermanyeventualitieswherelandowners,developersandfundersdonotdisposeoftheirinterestsbutretainthemandshareintheincomearising.合伙計(jì)劃是各參與方以即期利益交換員其收益權(quán)的方法。Arrangementsmaygiverisetoslicesofincometothedifferentparties.Theseslicesreflectriskandreward根據(jù)受益于風(fēng)險(xiǎn)對等的原則設(shè)置分配計(jì)劃。Hereanagreementisreachedofdividingtheincomeattheappraisalstage.Ifmoreincomeisinfactgenerated,thenthisadditionalincomeortopslicecanalsobedividedup,perhapsonadifferentbasis.要達(dá)成對預(yù)計(jì)收益和超額收益進(jìn)行處置的協(xié)議。SECTION5

PARTNERSHIPSCHEME45ParticipationThereisagrowthintheactualincomeoverthedevelopmentperiodanditisassumedthatthisgrowthisshared50:50. EstimatedIncome: ￡500,000pa Actualincome(plussay20%) ￡600,000pa Estimatedcosts: ￡5,000,000 Actualcosts(plussay10%) ￡5,500,000Theoriginalgroundrentwas￡50,000pabutnowthereisagreementthatanyexcessofreturnoverthepositionsetoutintheestimatedpositionisshared50:50.Calculation: ￡ ￡Actualincome 600,000paActualcost 5,500,000Decapitalisebythedevelopmentyield .09

495,000paResidue 105,000palessgroundrent 50,000paExcess 55,000pa ￡thus: 50%excesstolocalauthority 27,500pa plusoriginalgroundrent 50,000pa Revisedgroundrent 77,500paFuturegrowthapportioned:tolocalauthority 77,500pa 600,000pa =12.9%Sodevelopergets87.1%.

Participation46Advantagesofpartnerships–Developer合伙計(jì)劃對開發(fā)商的好處Landassembly:compulsorypurchasemaybetheonlymeanstocompletethesiteandalocalauthoritymaybeabletoprovidethese.Itwouldcertainlyreducethedevelopmentperiod.便于征地，降低成本，縮短工期。Thelocalauthoritycanassistonplanning,BuildingRegulationsandhighwaymatters.Inpartnershipitcouldalsoprovidegoodpublicity.利于獲得好的規(guī)劃條件3 Ifthelocalauthorityprovidesthesite,therearenositeacquisitioncostsnorfinancechargesonsitetobecarrieduntildevelopment.節(jié)省了購地款及其利息4 Thelocalauthoritycouldapplyforgrantstosubsidisedevelopmentcosts:政府對開發(fā)進(jìn)行補(bǔ)貼 - Landgrantstoimprovesoil/groundconditions - Developmentgrantstohelpsubsidiseschemesthatdon'tquitework.Advantagesofpartnerships–D47Advantagesofpartnerships-LocalAuthority開發(fā)計(jì)劃對政府的好處LocalAuthoritycanencouragedevelopmentandinitiateschemes.Itcanprovide“pumppriming”moniesorsubsidyorland.政府可以為投入補(bǔ)貼和土地找到好的理由ThelocalauthorityhasmorecontroloverwhatisbeingdevelopediftheLocalAuthorityisactuallyinvolvedinthedevelopment.可以加強(qiáng)政府對開發(fā)項(xiàng)目的控制程度Advantagesofpartnerships-L48Partnershipscomplementtheskillsofthetwoparties.Thelocalauthoritycanprovidebackuponengineeringmatters,sewers,roads,transport,planningwhereastheprivatepartnerprovidesprojectmanagementandfinancialexpertiseanddevelopmentknowledge.Thedeveloperalsotakestheriskindeveloping.雙方實(shí)現(xiàn)優(yōu)勢互補(bǔ)，開發(fā)商會(huì)提供相應(yīng)的開發(fā)、融資及管理技術(shù)并承擔(dān)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。Allowsdevelopmenttobefundedinthemarket.Privatefundsmaybeattractedtoapartnershipscheme,butnottoalocalauthorityscheme.Thepartnerisoftenchosenforexpertiseinraisingfunds.有利于吸引資金5. Byproportionaterentsharingarrangements,thelocalauthoritycanshareinfuturegrowthinrentsinthescheme政府可以分享今后項(xiàng)目成長帶來的好處。.Partnershipscomplementthesk49CHAPTER4:CASHFLOWAPPROACHES現(xiàn)金流量法Section1.Introduction Section2.Thedifferencebetweentheresidualmethodandthecashflowapproach.余值法和現(xiàn)金流量法的區(qū)別

Section3.Useofcashflowmethods現(xiàn)金流量法的應(yīng)用Section4.Cashflowcalculations現(xiàn)金流量法的計(jì)算CHAPTER4:CASHFLOWAPPROA50SECTION1:INTRODUCTIONTheargumentofusingdiscountedcashflows(DCF)approachesagainsttraditionalvaluationsisextensive.Cashflowscanassistinthecalculationofcostsoverthedevelopmentperiod.Thebasisresidualmethodisunalteredbutthecashflowapproachgivesamoredetailedcalculationofthescheme‘stotalcostsandthusthefinancecosts.現(xiàn)今流量法可以更為詳細(xì)和具體地進(jìn)行開發(fā)期間內(nèi)的成本計(jì)算。SECTION1:INTRODUCTIONThear51SECTION2:THEDIFFERENCEBETWEENTHERESIDUALANDTHECASHFLOWAPPROACH余值法和現(xiàn)金流量法的區(qū)別

Inthecashflowapproach,alldevelopmentcostsaredividedintomonthly(orquarterlyorannual)amounts.Thenetcashflowsarecalculatedandshorttermfinanceallowedforeachperiod.Cashflowsdealmoreaccuratelywiththebuildupoftotalconstructioncostsovertheperiod.現(xiàn)金流量法的計(jì)算是建立在巴整個(gè)開發(fā)周期劃分為月或季度，所以無論是短期還是整個(gè)開發(fā)期內(nèi)的現(xiàn)金流量都可以準(zhǔn)確計(jì)算。SECTION2:THEDIFFERENCEBET52ErrorsintheTraditionalResidual傳統(tǒng)余值法存在的問題Therearetwoerrorsinthetraditionalresidual:Itisassumedthatthetotalmoneyborrowedwillbearinterestoverhalftheperiodorhalfthemoneyisborrowedoverthetotalperiod.Thisisinaccuratebecause: 以借貸平均值或期間平均值來計(jì)算現(xiàn)金流非常不準(zhǔn)確，這是因?yàn)椋?a) Itbearsnorelationtoactualincidenceofcostswhichmaydifferfrommonthtomonthovertheperiod; 每一期成本發(fā)生可能有很大差異。 b) Interestcompoundsmonthlyorquarterlyovertheperioddependingonthearrangementswiththelender,thesimpleinterestformulaofthetraditionalresidual,orevencompoundingannuallyisanoversimplification.復(fù)利法的具體安排需要和資方具體商量，不能簡單平均。ErrorsintheTraditionalResi532. ThebuildupofbuildingcostsasshownintheScurvesuggeststhatcostsareloadedtotheendofthebuildingperiod.Intheexampleonly40%ofthecostsareincurredhalfwaythroughtheperiod.Thismaybebecausegroundandinitialworksmaybecheaper.Thiswilldependoncircumstancesbutinmanycasesthisisafairassumption.Anybuildingwithcomplexserviceprovisionintheformofliftsorairconditioningorwithexpensivefinisheswillexaggeratethistendency.Thetraditionalmethodwillthusallowfortoomuchinterest.根據(jù)s曲線，很多項(xiàng)目都是前期基礎(chǔ)工程成本較低，后期設(shè)備工程成本較高，如果簡單平均安排資金，這會(huì)加大開發(fā)上的資金成本。2. Thebuildupofbuildingco54Section2.Useofcashflowmethods現(xiàn)金流量法的應(yīng)用

Section2.Useofcashflowme55Cashflowsareusefulfor現(xiàn)金流量法用于:1. Showingtheeffectofinflationinrentsandbuildingcostsovertime.表現(xiàn)通貨膨脹的影響2. Sensitivityanalysis,toexaminetheeffectofchangesontheelementsofcost.用于敏感性分析3. Includingtaxinthecalculation.計(jì)算稅收因素4. Takingintoaccountaphaseddevelopmentandpartialdisposal.用于分階段開發(fā)和部分處置的情況5. Showingthedebtoutstandingatanypoint.可以顯示任何時(shí)點(diǎn)上的負(fù)債狀況。6. Showingthetimeofpeakcashoutlay.顯示現(xiàn)金流出的峰值期Cashflowsareusefulfor現(xiàn)金流量法56Cashflowsareanecessityforcertaindevelopments以下情況比較適用現(xiàn)金流量法:

1. Residentialestateswithphaseddisposal,whereanewphaseofhousesarebeingbuiltandanexistingphaseisbeingsoldofftofundthecostofthenewphase.分期開發(fā)的住宅地產(chǎn)2. Complexcentralareashoppingschemes.復(fù)雜的購物中心項(xiàng)目3. Industrialestatesorbusinessparkswithaprogramofdisposalofsitesandcompletedbuildings.工業(yè)地產(chǎn)項(xiàng)目4. NewTowndevelopmentswithaphasedimplementationofschemes.分期實(shí)施的新城鎮(zhèn)建設(shè)項(xiàng)目Cashflowsareanecessityfor57PERIODBYPERIODInterestaccruesquarterlyaccordingtohowbankcharges.Builderpaidmonthly.Interestonpreviousquarteraddedtonext.NETTERMINALVALUELiketheresidualvaluation,itaddsinterestontheoutstandingamounttotheendoftheconstructionperiod.DISCOUNTEDCASHFLOWConvertsperiodpaymenttothepresentday.AdvantagesDebtshownforeachperiod.CopeswithinterestratechangeQuicker,logicalextensiontothetraditionalresidual.Quickest,theinternalrateofreturncalculated.DisadvantagesLaboriousNotflexible.Notrelatedtohowcostevolved.Notshowtotaldebt.UseResidentialdevelopmentImportantifschemeistoberetainedandfinancedbymortgageorleaseback.Figure4.1: Cashflowappraisal:alternativeapproachesPERIODBYPERIODNETTERMINA58Example:(TakenfromMorley(1988a)Valueasiteforshopandofficedevelopment.Outgoings,buildingcostsandfeesbreakdownasfollows,excludingfinance. Year1 ￡ Year2 ￡ Quarter 1 100000 Quarter 5 150000 2 120000 6 175000 3 130000 7 175000 4 150000 8 150000

Thebuilderisusuallypaidmonthlysoamonthlycashflowisneededforthis,thedeveloperusesaquarterlycashflowasinterestischargedonaquarterlybasis.

Incomefromschemeis￡160,000anditcouldbesoldata7%yieldfor￡2,290,000afterbuildingworkiscomplete.Financeis4%perquarter(17%p.a.).Thereturnforriskandprofitis20%capitalvalue. Example:(TakenfromMorley(159TraditionalResidual

￡ Income 160000YPperp@7% 14.3 ________GrossDevelopmentValue 2285714lesscosts: Buildingcost+fees 1150000 Finance@17%for1/2costsfor2years 195500 _______ Totalcosts 1345500 Returnforriskandprofit@20%capitalvalue 457143 _________Costsplusprofit 1802643 _________Sitevalueoncompletion 483071P.V.￡1in2years@17% 0.730514 _________SiteValuetoday 352890

(includingpurchasecosts)TraditionalResidual60PeriodbyPeriodCashflow

SeeP77)PeriodbyPeriodCashflow61NetTerminalValuePeriodNetflow Interestuntil Netoutlay asabove completion@ oncompletion ￡ 4.00% ￡ (seebelow)1 ?100000 1.315932 ?1315932 ?120000 1.265319 ?1518383 ?130000 1.216653 ?1581654 ?150000 1.169859 ?1754795 ?150000 1.124864 ?1687306 ?175000 1.0816 ?1892807 ?175000 1.04 ?1820008 ?150000 1 ?150000 ?1307085Thisgivesthesameanswerasabove. NetTerminalValue62DiscountedCashFlow

Period Netflow P.V.￡1@P.V.of asabove