兩岸外交競(jìng)逐在國(guó)際關(guān)系理論的再現(xiàn)

兩岸外交競(jìng)逐在國(guó)際關(guān)係理論的再現(xiàn)吳得源國(guó)立暨南大學(xué)公共行政與政策學(xué)系助理教授兩岸外交在國(guó)關(guān)理論之再現(xiàn)引言：1949-1968:歷史偶然與理念競(jìng)逐1969-70:變遷與制度形成大制度水平擴(kuò)散與型態(tài)政策層面制度深化兩岸外交競(jìng)逐之理論意涵結(jié)語(yǔ)與參考文獻(xiàn)：引言背景與主題：1C(Beijing)與IR理論研究緣起：案例與理論的連結(jié)、資料來(lái)源、1996飛彈試射危機(jī)IR理論：新制度論與社會(huì)建構(gòu)論制度事實(shí)：用以規(guī)範(fàn)、穩(wěn)定行為者間互動(dòng)的種種正式或非正式規(guī)則：看不透摸不著但有實(shí)際影響作用；定型化過(guò)程：綱舉目張主要命題IP1:制度定型前：不同理念之競(jìng)逐、歷史相對(duì)開(kāi)放性與偶發(fā)性（事件、達(dá)人）P2:制度綱舉成形：其一理念成為主導(dǎo)、大原則之呈現(xiàn)及其權(quán)威詮釋；制度繁衍日漸同形(但有邊際差異)P3:制度垂直深化、目張至政策層面操作規(guī)則；政策學(xué)習(xí)主要論述IIP4:路徑相依、制度限制與構(gòu)成作用P5:權(quán)力、利益與定位由互動(dòng)協(xié)商過(guò)程以及衍生的制度所形塑確立、強(qiáng)化P6:制度強(qiáng)度與韌性：管制性、規(guī)範(fàn)性與認(rèn)知性三要素間的組織契合性P7:制度的高境界發(fā)展：發(fā)揮無(wú)形影響力、無(wú)為而治（認(rèn)知文化要素的壓倒勝利）制度定型前:1949-1968(P1)Contingency:韓戰(zhàn),中日和約,外島危機(jī)Systemicchange:中蘇共衝突表面化Policyentrepreneurs:CharlesdeGaulle,PierreTrudeau,RichardNixonContendingproblem-solvingproposals:oneChina(ROC),twoChinas,oneChinaoneTaiwan,oneChina(PRC)Sino-CanadianNegotiations,1969-70(P5)PierreTrudeau:torecognizePRCasap,takingintoaccountthereisaseparategovtinTaiwan(May28,1968)18回合、20個(gè)月:Stockholm,Sweden(1)先期談判(Feb.-Apr.1969):1C1T(2)原則實(shí)質(zhì)談判(May-Aug.1969):to1C(3)建交公報(bào)文句斟酌(Sep69-Oct.1970)CanadianFormulaand1C(PRC)(P2,P5)Oct.13,1970jointcommunique+CdnexplanationTheChinesegovtreaffirmsthatTisaninalienablepartofPRCterritory.TheCdngovttakesnoteofthisposition..TheCdngovtrecognizesthePRCgovtasthesolelegalgovtofChinaUnprecedented,ice-breaking,diffusionDiffusionofCdnformula(P2)Italy(1970,11,6);Chile(1970,12,5);Belgium(1971,10,25);Peru(1971,11,2);Lebanon(1971,11,9);Iceland(1971,12,8);Malta(1972,1,31);Argentina(1972,2,16);Greece(1972,6,5);Venezuela(1974,6,28);Brazil(1974,8,15);Ecuador(1979,12,24);Columbia(1980,2,7);Coted’Ivoire(83,3,1);Uruguay(1988,2,3):共15國(guó)持續(xù)18年VarietiesofInstitutionalIsomorphism(P2)Acknowledge:USShanghaiCommunique;UK(72,3,13);Australia(72,12,21);NewZealand(72,12,21);Spain(73,3,3);Malaysia(74,5,31);Thailand(75,7,1);Fiji(75,11,5);WestSamoa(75,11,6);US(79,1,1)Fullyunderstandandrespect:Japan(72,9,29);Philippine(75,6,9)Respect(Netherlands;SouthKorea)etc.新型態(tài)制度發(fā)展(P2)明白承認(rèn)北京對(duì)臺(tái)主權(quán)、承諾不與臺(tái)北發(fā)展官方關(guān)係或?qū)ε_(tái)出售武器Post-ColdWar:FormerSovietUnionandEasternEurope建交公報(bào)＋國(guó)事訪問(wèn)聯(lián)合公報(bào)法國(guó)(1994,1)Clinton三不(1998,6)政策層面制度深化(P3)界定與臺(tái)灣交往之具體範(fàn)圍與型式：處理文藝活動(dòng)、運(yùn)動(dòng)競(jìng)賽領(lǐng)域來(lái)自臺(tái)灣的個(gè)人或團(tuán)體的入境、參與國(guó)際活動(dòng)與資格定位（名稱,旗歌）（參酌：NZ）1976MontrealOlympics：三不不得自稱代表ROC退出非官方關(guān)係Institutionalisomorphism：澳,紐,奧,比,西德,義,日,瑞典等國(guó)案例之理論意涵MutualConstitutionofagencyandstructureConstrainingeffects:外交空間(P4)Enablingeffect：正當(dāng)性、以逸待勞(P4)Interest&identityformedthroughnegotiativeinteractionsandshapedbyderivedinstitutionthereafter(P5)Organizationalcoherenceof3elements(P6)Cultural-cognitivepillarmatters(P7)MutualConstitutionofA&S1Casinternationalinstitutionandfactwas(re-)producedcollaborativelybyagents.Itsvirtualexistenceandeffectinglargelydependoncontinuouspracticing.(PRCcontinuestopressforjointstatementswithotherstatesto(re-)initiatetheinstitutiontoeffect.)Constraining&Enablingeffects(P4)Pathdependency:限制未來(lái)可能發(fā)展範(fàn)圍、過(guò)去可行現(xiàn)在變得不可行限制臺(tái)北政策聲明與行動(dòng)自由(兩國(guó)論,一邊一國(guó),防衛(wèi)公投,名稱旗歌使用)、國(guó)際空間拓展（高層度假、過(guò)境外交）25國(guó)承認(rèn)ROC(1949:46;1973:39etc.)臺(tái)北爭(zhēng)奪1C詮釋權(quán)(eg.1DividedChina)北京干預(yù)T國(guó)際活動(dòng)範(fàn)圍與型式正當(dāng)化制度選擇可能範(fàn)圍1C(PRC)1C(ROC)1C2entities2Cs1C1T時(shí)間194919702005InterestandPowerNOTexogenouslygiven（P5）利益、目標(biāo)、定位經(jīng)互動(dòng)協(xié)商過(guò)程而確立或修正，並經(jīng)所衍生制度進(jìn)一步形塑；（渥太華:1C1T1C、北京:鞏固1C、臺(tái)北:FECT,TPKM,Taipei,1DividedC..）權(quán)力非預(yù)設(shè)單獨(dú)存在，需經(jīng)理念制度化而發(fā)生實(shí)質(zhì)作用。（北京的國(guó)力藉由1C制度獲認(rèn)可並投射放大）制度強(qiáng)度與高境界發(fā)展(P6,P7)1970後1C制度三要素的組織緊密且鞏固於北京手中（之前的三要素結(jié)構(gòu)分散）制度發(fā)展成功與否終繫於文化認(rèn)知要素：理所當(dāng)然、習(xí)以為常、無(wú)為而治MaryDouglas:`Thehightriumphofinstitutionalthinkingistomaketheinstitutionscompletelyinvisible.’(Cf.Berger,Confucius,Foucault,Lukes)結(jié)語(yǔ)試圖再現(xiàn)案例與理論間的連結(jié)關(guān)係論述與結(jié)論可修正性：依資料而定（目前加拿大官方資料）理論適用有其限制(DifferentstorymaybetoldwithAmericanandChinesedeclassifieddocuments.)Theendofhistory?(Well,itmaydependonwhoagentsareandwhattheydo…)進(jìn)一步參考Der-yuanWu,“Canadaand