2023年3月大類資產(chǎn)走勢展望

22023 32023

32023 33

/2023 34

/2023 352023 31.1??????62023 31.22023 1 302 242 14 1 CPI6.4%6.2%CPI5.6%5.5% 2 241 PCE2023122 1722022 112802022GDP2.9%;2023 2PMI 52.6%21820239.6510782023 31.3M2LPR19.40%M212.6%0.8% 14.9MLFM22LPR LPR202214102023LPR2023 2 271.832%20232.083%2 24202220181614121086420融社會

資規(guī)模存量:同比(%)M2:同比(%)4.94.74.54.34.13.93.73.5

1年LPR利率（%） 5年LPR利率（%）92023 31.340008000600010000200002020-1-2-20002021-1-22022-1-22023-1-221052022A4009002023 114132210518418.59%202214012.132023121620221531241976% 33%

2022 2023140.00120.00100.0080.0060.0040.0020.000.0050004500400035003000250020001500100050002020-012020-032020-052020-072020-092020-112021-012021-032021-052021-072021-092021-112022-012022-032022-052022-072022-092022-112023-01權(quán)益類基金發(fā)行份額(億份)權(quán)益類基金發(fā)行數(shù)量(只/右軸)21051020233113%10.74%5022%817.59%7.16%ICIM30017.560.19%5%2 277.820.29%-3310220224.610.07%-15.10IF IH0.22%

12%10%8%6%4%2%0%0.00.51.01.52.02.52021-01-042021-01-272021-02-262021-03-232021-04-162021-05-142021-06-082021-07-022021-07-272021-08-192021-09-132021-10-152021-11-092021-12-022021-12-272022-01-202022-02-212022-03-162022-04-122022-05-102022-06-022022-06-282022-07-212022-08-152022-09-072022-10-102022-11-022022-11-252022-12-202023-01-132023-02-141兩市成交金額(萬億元)參考線：

1萬億元兩市融資融券余額(萬億元)融資買入金額占比(%/右軸)6040200-20-40-60-80-100-1202022-01-042022-01-182022-02-082022-02-222022-03-082022-03-222022-04-072022-04-212022-05-102022-05-242022-06-082022-06-222022-07-062022-07-202022-08-032022-08-172022-08-312022-09-152022-09-292022-10-202022-11-032022-11-172022-12-012022-12-152022-12-292023-01-132023-02-032023-02-172IF主力合約:基差I(lǐng)C主力合約:基差I(lǐng)H主力合約:基差I(lǐng)M主力合約:基差11.4112023 3PE-TTM2023

2

27PE501000

PE-TTM300

5002017 1 113.12 26.25 38.06 9.67 11.84 24.33 30.7037.11%

52.29%

20.93%

20.15%

23.78%

27.22%

24.15%PE PB1.5122023 350

PE-TTM300

PE-TTMPE-TTMPE-TTM500

PE-TTM1000

PE-TTM1.5132023 31.62022 1 4491142022 115050202245-62022

62022

7-1011142023 31.6340050 30002023 1 30NV50 30005034002022年2至2022年3月套牢籌碼2022年7至9月形成的成交密集區(qū),突破受阻3150

點下方籌碼,目前已經(jīng)完全獲利2700

點下方全部獲利2700

至

3000

點壓力位2022年2至2022年3月套牢籌碼2023 31.7500

--1000-300

---152023 31.816N502023 3X1.92022 112012122013 3X50XNN50 2 28172023 31.93004A30%60boll0.382503003002 26?1B?255182023 31.10

TMT++++192023 3QIAQIAQIA-Timing+2022QIA-Timing-5.27%A7.4%QIA-8.58%2023 395%QIA-TimingQIA-Timing1 QIA-TimingQuantitativeIndustry

Allocation-Timing1.1120212023 31.11AIAAIA-Timing2 AIA-TimingActiveIndustry

Allocation-TimingAIAAIA-Timing27.7%-5.4%+20202023

395%AIA-TimingAIA-Timing2023 30222

/232023 32.1202222 202 212 242 24212MLF816019902217D/MLFMLFLPR1LPR5LPR242023 32023120232.2%22

3320231:2

20226

2414.03.53.02.52.01.51.00.50.011.010.510.09.59.0

社會融資規(guī)模存量同比（左軸，%）1年期國股銀票轉(zhuǎn)貼現(xiàn)收益率（右軸，%）2.2252023 32PMI2.32023

2PMI4.03.02.01.00.01個月2個月3個月6個月9個月1年2年3年4年5年6年7年8年9年10年15年20年30年40年50年2023-01-31

2022-12-312023-02-2853

3%52

51

2.9%50

2.8%49

48

2.7%47

2.6%46

45 2.5%

PMI（左軸）10Y國債收益率（右軸）20222 2810Y2.90%2310.40BP2Y2.49%2316.92BP10-2Y47.84bp41.32bp2 PMI2 PMI52.6262023 311%4.1%3.9%3.7%3.5%3.3%3.1%2.9%2.7%2.5%17%15%13%11%9%7%5%社融存量同比

社融存量同比-滯后6個月10Y國債收益率（右軸）4.1%3.9%3.7%3.5%3.3%3.1%2.9%2.7%2.5%23%21%19%17%15%13%11%9%7%5%中長期貸款存量同比

中長期貸款存量同比-滯后6個月10Y國債收益率（右軸）2.42023 31/M2100.84110.752.5%3.0%3.5%4.0%4.5%1.10.91.31.51.71.90.7

2.0%2017-01 2017-07 2018-01 2018-07 2019-01 2019-07 2020-01 2020-07 2021-01 2021-07 2022-01 2022-07 2023-01社融存量同比/M2同比（貨幣需供缺口系數(shù)） 月均10Y國債收益率（右軸）272.52023 32.63030600

500

400

300

200

100

0

2020

202120222023201

199

197

195

193

191

189

187

185

2020

202120222023282023 3222

332.7292023 30330

/2023 32022

67V112022

122023

2+3.1312023 350%40%30%20%10%0%-10%-20%-30%-40%2019-022019-052019-082019-112020-022020-052020-082020-112021-022021-052021-082021-112022-022022-052022-082022-11房地產(chǎn)投資增速制造業(yè)投資增速基建投資增速（不含電力）1260%50%40%30%20%10%0%-10%-20%-30%社會消費品零售總額同比增速出口同比增速3.2322023 312%10%8%6%4%2%0%-2%歐元區(qū)CPI當(dāng)月同比歐元區(qū)核心CPI當(dāng)月同比14%12%10%8%6%4%2%0%-2%-4%2019-1-12019-4-12019-7-12019-10-12020-1-12020-4-12020-7-12020-10-12021-1-12021-4-12021-7-12021-10-12022-1-12022-4-12022-7-12022-10-12023-1-1美國PPI（最終需求）同比美國CPI當(dāng)月同比美國核心CPI當(dāng)月同比2%2%2023

12%CPI1 CPICPICPI6.4%

5.6%

PPI

6%8.6% 5.3% CPI2 2250CPI3.3332023 3010203040506070403020100-10-20-30-40-502019-012019-032019-052019-072019-092019-112020-012020-032020-052020-072020-092020-112021-012021-032021-052021-072021-092021-112022-012022-032022-052022-072022-092022-112023-01歐元區(qū)19國:消費者信心指數(shù)歐元區(qū):Sentix投資信心指數(shù)歐元區(qū):制造業(yè)PMI(右軸)010203040506070120100806040200-20-40-60密歇根大學(xué)消費者信心指數(shù)Sentix投資信心指數(shù)美國制造業(yè)PMI（右軸）151.718.53.4%50SentixPMI3.4342023 32023OPEC+2202380ICEOECDOPEC俄烏沖突等供給沖擊導(dǎo)致原油價格運行中樞抬升海外衰退預(yù)期導(dǎo)致原油價格運行中樞下移6000500040003000200010000360003400032000300002800026000240002200020000OPEC原油產(chǎn)量（千桶/天）OECD石油庫存（百萬桶，右軸）3.5352023 336

/04372023 3COMEX0.82-0.8603CRB98%COMEX=3.2*CRB-226*10YCRBCRBCRB1.51.00.50.0-0.5-1.0-1.520042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023一年滾動相關(guān)系數(shù)（CRB綜合

VS

美黃金）

一年滾動相關(guān)系數(shù)（實際利率VS

美黃金）

-1.5-1.0-0.50.01.00.51.52.0100200300400500600700201920192019202020202020202020212021202120212022202220222022CRB綜合（左軸）

10Y美債實際利率(%)4.1382023 3——DarioCaldara

MatteoIacov

iello450.0400.0350.0300.0250.0200.0150.0100.050.00.0202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006200520042003地緣政治風(fēng)險指數(shù)地緣政治行為指數(shù)地緣政治威脅指數(shù)05001000150020000.00.40.81.21.62.0200320122011201020092008200720062005200420132014201520232022202120202019201820172016隱含避險需求指標(biāo)實際金價（月均，右軸）公式推測金價（

月均，

右軸）25004.2392023 3COMEX200018002002000160020231800200100806040200201620172018201920202021